Trump Elected: The True MAGA Era Begins, Now What?
- Thread starter JGeropoulas
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SOTTREADER
The Living Force
A part of me thinks that if this tariff thing goes bad, like really bad, Trump is running the risk of serious impeachment. I'm talking like if the damage is on a catastrophic type level where it's like "this did not need to happen".
My gut-feel is the whole tariffs thing won't play out as Trump thinks in his mind. I think the consequences will be non linear so hard to predict. I'm not sure though applying tariffs to the whole planet makes friends of other countries, especially when they completely discount that America is a bet exporter of services.
All I am getting from all these is that Trump thinks America doesn't need the rest of the world, and it's the rest of the world that needs America. The whole mutual coexistence and codependence seems to be non existent.
Anyways, let's see how this thing plays out. Buckle up. Chaos incoming.
My gut-feel is the whole tariffs thing won't play out as Trump thinks in his mind. I think the consequences will be non linear so hard to predict. I'm not sure though applying tariffs to the whole planet makes friends of other countries, especially when they completely discount that America is a bet exporter of services.
All I am getting from all these is that Trump thinks America doesn't need the rest of the world, and it's the rest of the world that needs America. The whole mutual coexistence and codependence seems to be non existent.
Anyways, let's see how this thing plays out. Buckle up. Chaos incoming.
axj
The Living Force
For comparison: Russia has been thriving despite (and partly due to) massive sanctions by the entire West. The effect of sanctions is similar to high tariffs.
In the case of Russia, some industries started to thrive by no longer being outcompeted by foreign products. I think Chinese substitutes for Western products also play a major role.
So I do think that the US tariffs have a good chance of being successful, despite the short-term problems they create. If Trump lowers income taxes as well, the outcome would be even better.
One likely outcome is that these tariffs will lead to the creation of new free trade agreements with various countries that are more dependent on the US (supposedly 50 countries are ready for that). The removal of tariffs is a sort of leverage in these cases.
I don't see any "thriving" Russia around me yet: high central bank rate of 21%, high inflation (official 10%, real 20%-30%), constantly rising prices for food and clothing, very expensive cars and housing, low pensions/salaries, terrible healthcare, terrible demographic situation, millions of migrants and thousands of other problems. All these problems have been accumulating for years, and it hasn't gotten any better now.
It seems that the sanctions have made life better for only a small group of oligarchs, but not for most ordinary people.
In the US, things don't seem so bad yet, but Trump is certainly driving his train into the abyss at full speed. Perhaps, after some time, we will start to think that life in Russia is not so bad anymore, compared to the US.
We'll see, but it seems like a utopia. The US has a colossal export-import imbalance. And no duties can fix it. What kind of "free" trade can we talk about? The US is trying to return the "former" colonial world, where they were the hegemon and humiliated and robbed everyone, by threats and blackmail. But the old world has collapsed and there is no return to it.
axj
The Living Force
Russia had the fourth-largest GDP growth among the G20 last year, only behind China, India and Indonesia and higher than any Western country. Considering that the sanctions were meant to destroy the Russian economy, I would say that this counts as a thriving economy.
It may be more difficult for Russia this year, since one of the consequences of Trump's trade war is that the oil price has reached a four year low - and Russia depends a lot on income from oil and gas.
The removal of tariffs or duties will probably not fix the export-import imbalance. The free trade agreements could simply keep some countries closer to the US - economically and maybe geopolitically.
I do not question the GDP growth figure. But it has been discussed here on the forum before, it is just that - a figure. It has no real connection to the purchasing power of the citizens.
Tariffs however do have direct impact on what we as consumers can buy, especially when it is not made onshore - which specifically in US is pretty much everything. We are likely to see similar downward "quality of living" spiral as Russia experienced in late 90-ties until Putin took over and set different course. And despite the fact of having followed the course last 25 years, Russia still has a long way to go in order "to be there" to make it country of plenty. Difference here is, Russia is half way up there, US is half way to the bottom.
axj
The Living Force
GDP growth is usually a good indicator of how an economy is doing overall, including the per capita purchasing power. Of course it can be skewed too much if oligarchs pocket most of the increase or if the GDP is based to a large degree on "financial wizardry" of banks.
What I mean by "thriving economy" is that it is apparently growing at a good pace despite massive sanctions (and faster than Western economies). It does not mean that Russia is already a country of plenty when compared to Western countries.
Though if you look at the PPP numbers (purchase power parity per capita), the difference is not that large either: The EU average per capita income in PPP is about $60,000 while the Russian per capita income in PPP is about $45,000.
SOTTREADER
The Living Force
I think it's the GDP per capita figure that's the important one for individual people. What does it matter if the country is doing well but that isn't sipping down in earnings and other benefits to citizens? Like India is a supposed powerhouse but millions upon millions are in poverty...
One reason I don't think the tariffs thing will be a net benefit in the way Trump thinks is I don't think he's being honest to begin with. He wasn't truthful about the tariffs other countries impose on the US, and he has been very quiet about US services sector. It also doesn't make sense that he's imposing tariffs in places where it doesn't make sense i.e. there are no people there or literally the place produces something that America can't due to lack of that resource or climate conditions for that thing.
I also don't think Trump has strong economic advisers around him. All the top names are in other fields - defence, healthcare, internal security, media, technology etc.
I think the economic guys he will recruit will run circles around him when this whole thing starts to unravel in unpredictable ways. I don't think you can tariff the whole world and not expect utter chaos. Chaos is unpredictable and if there will be any benefits, I don't think they will be benefits that were planned for.
I'm also noticing how thus far it's all about firing people from jobs in the name of efficiency and not giving or creating jobs for people.
I am getting a flavour of Trump that's giving me cause for concern - his celebration of death, posting those videos of people being blown up in Yemen and celebrating is really antihuman and it makes you question things about his inner makeup. Even if those people were "bad guys" I don't think that is conduct becoming of the president of the USA.
I don't quite understand what you're trying to prove here. I live in Russia (and I see the real picture), but you don't. The GDP indicator is a spherical horse in a vacuum that makes little sense.
Moreover, we just learned from the session that the real population of, for example, China is much less than a billion. So what is the "official" GDP of China worth then? It's a made-up figure. The same is probably true for the "official" GDP of the US or Russia - these are just figures that are far from reality.
The problem is that we don't know the real growth figures of any country. After all, we don't even know the real number of residents in these countries. It's garbage in and garbage out. The economy is illusory and it is falsified on many levels.
By almost any "official" economic indicators, the US is doing well. The situation in the US is much better than in most countries in the world - this is what the UN, the World Bank and all other global structures assure us. But according to the C's, the US doesn't have nearly the gold reserves they "officially" claim.
And what do we see in the current reality? Trump is "breaking" his own economy over his knee, fighting with the rest of the world. One piece of news causes the market to grow by $3 TRILLION, and then another piece of news causes it to fall by $2.5 TRILLION in THIRTY MINUTES.
You can, of course, continue to count the "official" economic indicators, but I'll just grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.
WhiteMountain
Jedi
Actually it is not quite as hopeless in terms of tracking the figures as people might think. The headline numbers are highly manipulated, but there are ways of getting at the data better using more reliable data sets that hedge funds have been using for years. For example, if you track the revenues of largely cyclical companies compared to their stated price increases (in SEC reports they will often give a breakdown of sales X% volume, X% pricing, X% mix, X% acquisitions, etc. or you will have looked at industry figures of their major product lines to get pricing if they don't fess up in their filing or conference calls) and if you have a large enough data set, that will clue you in on the major year over year and quarter to quarter trends. Since company results typically are audited independently, these numbers tend to be more reliable than government figures. In fact I used to use data like that (in addition to noting certain data from the census office that tended to be leaked early that most people did not know about that went into the GDP calculation :)) to forecast the top line GDP number from time to time when it mattered. M2 can also be a good proxy for economic growth and is updated weekly, if you can filter out all of the money printing.I don't quite understand what you're trying to prove here. I live in Russia (and I see the real picture), but you don't. The GDP indicator is a spherical horse in a vacuum that makes little sense.
Moreover, we just learned from the session that the real population of, for example, China is much less than a billion. So what is the "official" GDP of China worth then? It's a made-up figure. The same is probably true for the "official" GDP of the US or Russia - these are just figures that are far from reality.
The problem is that we don't know the real growth figures of any country. After all, we don't even know the real number of residents in these countries. It's garbage in and garbage out. The economy is illusory and it is falsified on many levels.
By almost any "official" economic indicators, the US is doing well. The situation in the US is much better than in most countries in the world - this is what the UN, the World Bank and all other global structures assure us. But according to the C's, the US doesn't have nearly the gold reserves they "officially" claim.
And what do we see in the current reality? Trump is "breaking" his own economy over his knee, fighting with the rest of the world. One piece of news causes the market to grow by $3 TRILLION, and then another piece of news causes it to fall by $2.5 TRILLION in THIRTY MINUTES.
You can, of course, continue to count the "official" economic indicators, but I'll just grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.
I have not even attempted anything like that in years, but someone could go through that to get a real sense of what is really happening with the economic figures. Even the balance sheet of governments themselves can be useful if you know where to look for leading indicators of problems (unemployment insurance balances, for instance). And the average person going to the grocery store probably have a better notion of inflation than whatever the government comes up with themselves! In the US I typically look at shadowstats.com as decent estimates as what way the economy is going now, but even John's data is probably influenced by bad data from the census bureau. Just go right to the top line organic growth of major S&P500 companies if you want the real story.
It is interesting to look at this tariff list story from an interpersonal level. The US regime could impose tariffs, say it's to revive its internal economy, and let other countries do whatever they want. The problem with the tariffs lists, is that there is a list, and it's called reciprocal. First of all the US presents itself as a victim of poor countries (poor America boohoo). Some idi.. people will cheer as "yeah, it's a revenge for taking advantage of the US", while it is US companies that went to these countries, exploited them, and caused unemployment in the US after a period of free money and free energy. Not very smart and not very manly. Have you been bullied by penguins?
And secondly these tariffs are not only for the self, but also against others. By comparison, other countries, like China, engage in bilateral negotiations: "here how you can profit, and here is how we profit". The US mentality appears to be "we win, you loose" as in a zero-sum game.
Also, announcing tariffs on Myanmar a few days after a devastating earthquake is obscene. Servility to Israel doesn't help either.
And secondly these tariffs are not only for the self, but also against others. By comparison, other countries, like China, engage in bilateral negotiations: "here how you can profit, and here is how we profit". The US mentality appears to be "we win, you loose" as in a zero-sum game.
Also, announcing tariffs on Myanmar a few days after a devastating earthquake is obscene. Servility to Israel doesn't help either.
Shades of 1984.On April 1 the Houthis claimed to have launched 18 missiles and a drone against the "aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman and accompanying warships" in the Red Sea, in response Trump bombed them and childishly mocked them, as is his style adding "They will never sink our ships again!"
The only US ship to be sunk "recently" was the USS America (2005) and that was by the US itself in a war exercise or simulation. The Houthis have never sunk an American ship, unless Trump knows something we don't.
The responses to Trump's X were like missiles that the MAGA apologists could not overcome. Now war is good.
Boom
View attachment 107483
George Orwell - 1984 - Part 1, Chapter 1
The complete works of george orwell, searchable format. Also contains a biography and quotes by George Orwell
www.george-orwell.org
The Supreme Court dissolved Boasberg's temporary restraining order and overruled the DC Circuit.
Supreme Court Sides With Trump Over Venezuelan Deportations, But Requires Due Process For Each Case | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Building the connection to the higher self is not the pursuit of happiness, but the pursuit of knowledge and truth. And that Work requires suffering to turn on latent DNA potential. Happiness may result, but is not the focus per se. Too much happiness, or a focus only on happiness, is what Gurdjieff called the disease of self-calming. It's a point that resonates through the ages, with Paul, with the Stoics, as well as more recently with psychologists like Dabrowski, Peterson, as well as the C's.
Like all things, balance is good IMO. I like the tree metaphor. As the 3D Soul reaches its branches up into the Light, it also reaches its roots down into the Darkness. Maybe there's a tipping point where it's all Light, but I know I sure haven't got there yet.
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