Venezuela: Resistance or disintegration?

In the end, I tend to conclude that the socialist economic model, while perhaps a nice idea, is simply too idealistic and therefore unsuited to a world such as ours, where people are fundamentally self-serving. In human society, you will always have to brutally enforce a largely 'egalitarian' system. As a general rule, when you have to brutally force people to accept something, you know you're on the wrong track. It seems that the Western 'elite' know this and know that they have to manipulate people via their base emotions of fear - to get them to accept what would otherwise be unacceptable to them - and greed - to gain control over them by corrupting them (ponerization). That said, I still admire the Venezuelan leaders and people that attempted to implement Bolivarian socialism, even if I think they are hopelessly naive.

Yes, except that I don't know about the general "selfishness" of people. That's kind of the assumption behind both capitalism and socialism and perhaps has its origins in the enlightenment and its simplistic assertion that priests and kings are all selfish. But if you want to deny that priests/kings can ever be genuine and non-selfish, you soon must postulate that everyone is selfish. Along came socialism with its "class warfare" that contains the same idea of universal selfishness etc.

Thing is, capitalists can be unselfish (to the degree this is possible for humans) as well, and often are. I'm not talking about pseudo-philantropic billionaires (though that can be genuine as well), but about all those SME owners who feel responsible for their employees and who work extremely hard. In fact, part of why capitalism works is because people are not all selfish, especially in their immediate environment. And part of the reason socialism doesn't work is that people are more selfish towards a mega-beaurocracy than they are towards their colleagues, bosses and business partners on a local level.

The main reason though why socialism, as a general rule, doesn't work well (I think) is because of the merciless rule of unintended consequences. If you try to fix stuff through a mega-beaurocracy, you would need to be able to "calculate history" precisely, which, of course, is what Marxists do believe. But this always goes spectacularly wrong. I think you can change laws and policies for the benefit of the people on a small scale (small changes and/or very local changes) and with robust feedback, you might make the situation slightly better, which is all you can hope for really. But imposing grand-scale socialist policies tends to completely screw up incentive structures and invites selfish behavior both by workers and capitalists (ironically).

What I hate though about this debate is that people tend to screw up their definitions because of ideologies. For example, privatizing state-owned corporations, having the state retain 50% of the shares but adding a clique of private owners who plunder the whole thing while the state pays the bills (but has nothing to say) has nothing whatsoever to do with free, local markets, but everything to do with greedy theft by a bunch of thugs. FWIW
 
Had a read from this article:


Which brought up long rang mechanisms, not just in South America, to usurp governments via a steady co-opting of students into future roles as leaders; many types of leaders from activist groups, university departments, corporations and of course government. It is a playbook that can take decades to mature, if it does, and it is super well funded through USAID etc. Sometimes it does not bear fruits as is explained, yet it continues to the next set of circumstances and then even to the next until, like now in Venezuela, a leader is presented coup-like and legitamently masked to the world and the countries very own people.

Discussed here are even the same methods with their unique twists used in Ukraine and elsewhere.

Anyway, when you stand back and look at the field knowing this may well be a continuum all around the world - to whatever the destabilizing goals are specific to the location, it sure seems like a massive unending program.

This guy, Raúl Capote, provides an interesting take on things both economic, social and militarily in South America. With Venezuela (and as stagnant as the current economic situation is - with many reasons for it), in the end he is suggesting that the Venezuela people will not tolerate a Juan Guaidó's monkeying around as his attached strings are known. For Juan, he is disposable for those who created him if the game stalls - they will find another Juan, another weakness and method.
 
I'm going to paste a few snippets out of a UN report on Venezuela for you to look at. Then ask yourself, who is behind this ? Is it Maduro's government ? How long has this been going on ? What is the objective ?

27. The Independent Expert inquired from the Government and the opposition about the impact of measures adopted by several States aimed directly and indirectly at affecting the functioning of the Venezuelan economy. He also looked at the problem of currency speculation, one of the preferred tools to destabilize targeted economies, and the activities of credit rating agencies, which, although they have neither democratic legitimacy nor oversight, have a significant impact on the financial ability of States to issue bonds and obtain financing. The Banco Central de Venezuela informed him that risk rating agencies, primarily Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch, have consistently issued negative ratings based on the country’s ability to make external payments, forgetting (what???) that the Government has a history of excellent debt response. That has had a significant effect on the country’s risk level and has essentially shut down its possibilities of accessing the financial market.

28. Illicit flows, or the illegal transferring of funds from one jurisdiction to another, has had an adverse impact on the ability of States to meet their financial obligations, as has the use of tax havens. International cooperation is necessary to ensure the repatriation of these funds.43 It also appears that international criminal groups are responsible for the theft of public resources, food items and medicines, which have found their way into neighbouring countries. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) can help States tackle some of these problems. There have been cases of hoarding of food, medicines and personal hygiene items, with the items subsequently released onto the black market. In some cases, the hoarding has been so prolonged that hidden food and medicines have perished. Government officials also shared concerns about the widespread sabotage of public property, arson attacks on public buildings, buses, ambulances, hospitals, maternity wards and other institutions, destruction of electricity and telephone lines, paramilitarism in frontier regions and other violent acts tantamount to terrorism.[/QUOTE]
Report

Note: As an example, the currency manipulation was tried on Malaysia in the 90's but it didn't work. Why ? Because there was a smart Prime Minister then called Mahathir. I remember BBC screaming that Malaysia was doomed, that Malaysian would be set back tens of years etc. No it was not. Malaysia prospered and Soros and Comp. lost big on that attempt. However in the case of Venezuela, it does not have such leadership and I suspect it has a bunker mentality in trying to figure out who to listen to for good advice. I don't know, but that is my impression.
 
Sorry for spaming a bit but just in case others don't get to the end of the article in my previous comment it is worth gold to read the following.

The US has previously defended its sanctions on Venezuela, with a senior US official saying in 2018: “The fact is that the greatest sanction on Venezuelan oil and oil production is called Nicolas Maduro, and PDVSA’s inefficiencies,” referring to the state-run oil body, Petroleos de Venezuela, SA.

Mr De Zayas’s findings are based on his late-2017 mission to the country and interviews with 12 Venezuelan government minsters, opposition politicians, 35 NGOs working in the country, academics, church officials, activists, chambers of commerce and regional UN agencies.

The US imposed new sanctions against Venezuela on 9 March 2015, when President Barack Obama issued executive order 13692, declaring the country a threat to national security.

The sanctions have since intensified under Donald Trump, who has also threatened military invasion and discussed a coup. …

Despite being the first UN official to visit and report from Venezuela in 21 years, Mr de Zayas said his research into the causes of the country’s economic crisis has so far largely been ignored by the UN and the media, and caused little debate within the Human Rights Council.

He believes his report has been ignored because it goes against the popular narrative that Venezuela needs regime change. …

The then UN high commissioner, Zeid Raad Al Hussein, reportedly refused to meet Mr de Zayas after the visit, and the Venezuela desk of the UN Human Rights Council also declined to help with his work after his return despite being obliged to do so, Mr de Zayas claimed. …

So what is the mission of the UN ? Report "Truth" to the World ?
 
In the end, I tend to conclude that the socialist economic model, while perhaps a nice idea, is simply too idealistic and therefore unsuited to a world such as ours, where people are fundamentally self-serving. In human society, you will always have to brutally enforce a largely 'egalitarian' system. As a general rule, when you have to brutally force people to accept something, you know you're on the wrong track. It seems that the Western 'elite' know this and know that they have to manipulate people via their base emotions of fear - to get them to accept what would otherwise be unacceptable to them - and greed - to gain control over them by corrupting them (ponerization). That said, I still admire the Venezuelan leaders and people that attempted to implement Bolivarian socialism, even if I think they are hopelessly naive.

Yeah, I think that until someone comes up with a genius idea for a new political system and how to implement it, the lesser evil is a capitalist society with regulations to avoid corporate abuse and protect the working class, as well as some state-sponsored welfare for basic needs like healthcare. Putin himself was once asked if communism could return to Russia, and he said that he didn't think so, but that there could (should) be some socialist elements to the system itself. You can't control society, but the state should intervene where it's obvious that there's going to be a problem. This is problematic already, but it's better than the other two extremes (Adam Smith vs Marx).

It's like the story of the king who had to decide to which of his 3 sons he would pass on the crown. He asked each of them to grow a tree and care for it, and the tree that would do better after a few years would determine the next king. One son cared for his tree every day, removing bad leaves and parasites, watering it, building a greenhouse around it, etc., to the point that the tree didn't grow much due to overprotection. Another didn't care for the tree at all; he just let it to the elements, so that one didn't do too well either. The last son one reached a balance between caring for the tree and letting it grow naturally to develop its own strength, and of course that's the one that did best.

Back to Venezuela, the economy minister said in that interview posted earlier with Abby Martin that they were not a socialist country, but that they were in transition to their own brand of 'Bolivarian' socialism - which is kind of true, as there has been a private sector all these years, in spite of the nationalizations. But of course, under those circumstances, the private sector will fight tooth and nail before they reach the stage in which they become extinct. If the US comes along and whispers on their ear that they are on their side, why would they say no? Especially when some of those entrepreneurs miss the good old days of the rich oligarchy. This in turn becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy for the socialists, who view everything as a class war.
 
In the end, I tend to conclude that the socialist economic model, while perhaps a nice idea, is simply too idealistic and therefore unsuited to a world such as ours, where people are fundamentally self-serving. In human society, you will always have to brutally enforce a largely 'egalitarian' system. As a general rule, when you have to brutally force people to accept something, you know you're on the wrong track. It seems that the Western 'elite' know this and know that they have to manipulate people via their base emotions of fear - to get them to accept what would otherwise be unacceptable to them - and greed - to gain control over them by corrupting them (ponerization). That said, I still admire the Venezuelan leaders and people that attempted to implement Bolivarian socialism, even if I think they are hopelessly naive.

I think socialism makes a relatively good observation of the symptoms of the "disease", especially on these two points: (1) There are countries/powers that are predatory and their main purpose is to depredate weaker countries no matter the human cost; (2) The most negatively affected (at least in material terms) are always the lowest social classes (who in general in less developed countries are a significant portion of the population).

IMO one of the major flaws of socialism is that all the solutions they think for these problems work exclusively in the virtual reality inside their minds; in practice, most of their "solutions" tend to result in disaster.

Yeah, I think that until someone comes up with a genius idea for a new political system and how to implement it, the lesser evil is a capitalist society with regulations to avoid corporate abuse and protect the working class, as well as some state-sponsored welfare for basic needs like healthcare. Putin himself was once asked if communism could return to Russia, and he said that he didn't think so, but that there could (should) be some socialist elements to the system itself. You can't control society, but the state should intervene where it's obvious that there's going to be a problem. This is problematic already, but it's better than the other two extremes (Adam Smith vs Marx).

I agree. The way leftist intellectuals understand the world is somewhat arrogant and seems to be supported by a conviction that they (intellectuals) have a certain cognitive superiority over the working mass that they are so determined to empower and liberate from oppression.

From this way of seeing themselves and the world, it is that their performance tends to have these characteristics:

1- They underestimate the ordinary people: many times they end up treating them like children; for their own good they do not feel obliged to tell them the truth or explain it to them because surely they would not understand the "subtleties of the refined art of politics and leadership". For this reason, their governments tend to be paternalistic and assistentialist, they do not stimulate freedom or creativity, nor do they allow people to incorporate essential human values such as responsibility and effort. Indirectly, they tend to promote laziness.
2- Centralism and iron grip: the socialist core seems obsessed with control; in general they always seem to be in a state of permanent fear, fearful that someone will start asking uncomfortable questions and they progressively lose control. That's why they tend to be paranoid and their list of enemies ends up being more voluminous than the Encyclopaedia Britannica.
3- They lack practical sense: for them, Ideas are more important than Reality, the poetic beauty of a phrase is much more important than if that phrase reflects reality or not.

Of course, this is a personal impression or at least this is what I have observed in most of the leftist progressive governments that have spread throughout Latin America in the past decade. Sure, not all of these governments embodied these characteristics with the same intensity, but IMHO these factors allow us to draw a line that connects all of these governments.

On the other hand, capitalism (in philosophical terms at least) seems to trust more in human beings and their capacities. This confidence would allow (in ideal terms) to act freely and stimulate the creativity and development of the individual. The problem seems to arise from the idea (erroneous in my opinion) that the playing field gives equal opportunities to all and that any state intervention would affect this fine balance.

I guess you could take the best of both "worlds" and find a better way to regulate the development of a nation. I imagine there is a point somewhere in the middle of the pathological paternalism of the left side and the typical capitalist wild jungle that arises as a consequence of the absolute lack of State protection and regulation.
 
Venezuela released a video of a captured colonel, Oswaldo García Palomo, in which he 'confesses' to plotting a coup, and having contacts with a CIA agent and Colombian officials in Colombia. The most interesting thing is that he says that the CIA agent told him that in his opinion there would by a US military intervention in Venezuela in the first trimester of this year, and that this was an opinion that at least a Pentagon analyst shared. The colonel says that the CIA agent was almost always right on what he said, so he decided to go with a Venezuelan general and propose they start a coup themselves "before the US comes and makes a mess"!

Indeed they tried, but the plot was infiltrated and García Palomo was captured on the 30th of January.

You can read South Front's report in English here. Here's the video for those of you who understand Spanish:


The lawyer of García Palomo says he was tortured, as he had bruises in the stomach, cuts on the legs, burns on the wrists and that he was injected with some substance on the hands. Having said that, his story, tone of voice and body language ring true to me. Perhaps he thought it best to speak out because his main concern was preventing a US invasion?

This is even more interesting because yesterday Maria Zakharova said that Russia concluded that the US had already made the decision to invade Venezuela. Did they reach that conclusion because they watched the video and found it to be credible?

 
Press conference with Maduro
https://www.rt.com/news/451001-deaf-maduro-says-eu/ said:
‘You’re deaf’: Maduro says EU is not listening to Venezuela

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has rejected the “partisan and ideological nature” of the EU-backed International Contact Group on Venezuela, which recently vowed to ensure a “credible” new election in his country.Venezuela supports the dialogue process proposed by Mexico, Uruguay, Bolivia and the Community of Caribbean Countries (CARICOM), Maduro said at a press conference in the Miraflores Palace in Caracas. He added that the government was ready to talk to “whomever and whenever.”

“We are in the immediate position to support any action that promotes diplomacy, dialogue and meeting between Venezuelans,”
said the president.

The EU must hear “Venezuela’s truth,” however, instead of listening to “right-wing extremists,” Maduro insisted.
We have always told the EU and [its foreign policy chief] Federica Mogherini: You are not listening to the truth of Venezuela, you are deaf. And the EU is doomed, Mogherini will fail if she listens to and follows what Venezuelan right-wing extremists say.

he EU-backed contact group is planning to send a technical mission to Venezuela in the coming weeks to talk to “relevant actors” there, and assist in “establishing the necessary guarantees for a credible electoral process within the earliest timeframe possible.”

Multiple EU countries have supported Venezuelan opposition leader and parliament speaker Juan Guaido, who proclaimed himself to be the “interim leader” of the country. They are now effectively treating Maduro as an usurper.
 
I think socialism makes a relatively good observation of the symptoms of the "disease",
I tend to be cautious when dealing with political ideologies like socialism, or capitalism, communism, liberalism for the matter.

Cautious because those words don't mean much, or rather they mean too many things. Their definition varies depending on the time, the place, and more importantly the 'leaders' who are professing them.

Take socialism for example, Hitler claimed to be a socialist (national socialist), same for Stalin (USSR) and Macron (socialist minister of economy). Interestingly the three forms of this ideology led to the same result: accumulation of wealth and power for a pathological elites (Nazis, apparatchik, oligopolistic companies) at the expense of the people.

The same can be said about the various forms of communism and capitalism. That's why political ponerology is so important. It shows us that what really matters is not the ideology but the individuals in charge of this ideology.

In other terms, great leaders (that are so rare) can do lots of good things whatever the ideological context while pathological leaders can create hell from the greatest ideologies, which more often than not are just a label, a thin fancy veneer covering a horrible reality.

Examples of ideologies serving the illusion of choice and plurality can be found in The Red Symphony or The Controversy Of Zion, where a handful of leaders were supporting the two sides of the same coin: capitalism in the West (which led to power monopoly for a handful of industrialists and bankers) "against" communism in the East (which led to power monopoly for a handful of apparatchiks and bankers - despite its claims the 1917 revolution spared and even favored the banks).

Ultimately, the trend towards power monopoly goes beyond ideologies and even ponerization. I think it is the hallmark of STSness. When a critical mass of the population resonates on the STS frequency, the STS pyramidal hierarchy becomes reality: the most predatorial individuals rise to the top and oppression/rule becomes the rules.

In this STS context, the Darwinians are right: (STS dominated) nature favors the fittest (i.e. most predatorial).
 
I tend to be cautious when dealing with political ideologies like socialism, or capitalism, communism, liberalism for the matter.

Cautious because those words don't mean much, or rather they mean too many things. Their definition varies depending on the time, the place, and more importantly the 'leaders' who are professing them.

I agree with you, sometimes it becomes very difficult to express oneself properly because these terms have multiple definitions depending on the context. Perhaps a more accurate expression could be left-wing ideologies? I don't really know, the fact is that these ideologies exist at least as tendencies or inclinations to see the world and reality through a particular filter and to put the focus of our attention upon just some aspects of reality. I liked how J.Haidt did put it in terms of the 6 moral foundations.

In other terms, great leaders (that are so rare) can do lots of good things whatever the ideological context while pathological leaders can create hell from the greatest ideologies, which more often than not are just a label, a thin fancy veneer covering a horrible reality.

I agree, and curiously Putin (I know that there aren't many like him) seems to have divested (at least enough) himself of the ideological engagements and the emotional investment they entail, and taken the best (in practical terms) of both "worlds".

Ultimately, the trend towards power monopoly goes beyond ideologies and even ponerization. I think it is the hallmark of STSness. When a critical mass of the population resonates on the STS frequency, the STS pyramidal hierarchy becomes reality: the most predatorial individuals rise to the top and oppression/rule becomes the rules.

And yes, I agree again, but IMHO I think that (of course having as permanent reference this fact) exploring the more superficial layers where STSness can manifest itself in our reality (whether anchored in ideologies or in other ways) can give us a more real (3D?) perspective of STSness, and prevent us from ending up by reducing every social/human phenomenon to a "STS did it" way of looking at it.
 
Right, that’s why Left leaning government projects in Latinamerica are actually nationalist in nature and right wing ones are aligned with the Neoliberals/globalist/Democrats/left in Washington (at least currently) and elsewhere.

So focusing on the name and qualities the ideology should in theory posses will only cause confusion. It’s as it has been said many times in the past, through the fruits of their actions.

Bolivia is a good example, running an indigenous revolution with heavy social programs has managed to succeed to a large degree in the world commerce. So there, a capitalist socialist nationalist left leaning system of sorts, that knows how to do business.
 
I agree with you, sometimes it becomes very difficult to express oneself properly because these terms have multiple definitions depending on the context. Perhaps a more accurate expression could be left-wing ideologies? I don't really know, the fact is that these ideologies exist at least as tendencies or inclinations to see the world and reality through a particular filter and to put the focus of our attention upon just some aspects of reality. I liked how J.Haidt did put it in terms of the 6 moral foundations.

I think it truly depends on the conditions on the ground at the time of the rise to power. If the ground is fertile for a more compassionate discourse, then the pathological will cling on to that discourse with the aim of attaining power.

If the ground is fertile for a more protectionist discourse and more conservative, then the pathological will cling on to that and ride that train, with the aim of attaining power.

Look at the US where every dummy politician has jumped on the “lefty” train of compassion and care for migrants and minorities and yada yada yada, but in truth, if you actually pay attention at their actions, all they want is to be back in power.

They picked that discourse because it’s popular, not because they’re more temperamentally compassionate and actually care about the dispossessed.

The same could be said in Venezuela, Maduro/Chavismo probably has reached a point where the goal is to remain in power, beyond betterment of the nation which would require sacrificing influence and control. That has informed the state of affairs to a large degree I would say. They’ll always say it’s about resistance and the revolution and socialism, but one shouldn’t forget that they’re STS beings who’ve simply found a different structure to serve themselves and attain the same goal.

Which, doesn’t mean they don’t have anything to resist or that simply stepping away from power would be the best for the nation. This is why the situation is so complex.
 
Right, that’s why Left leaning government projects in Latinamerica are actually nationalist in nature and right wing ones are aligned with the Neoliberals/globalist/Democrats/left in Washington (at least currently) and elsewhere.

So focusing on the name and qualities the ideology should in theory posses will only cause confusion. It’s as it has been said many times in the past, through the fruits of their actions.

Bolivia is a good example, running an indigenous revolution with heavy social programs has managed to succeed to a large degree in the world commerce. So there, a capitalist socialist nationalist left leaning system of sorts, that knows how to do business.

This is indeed the case in Venezuela, where Chávez conjugated a nationalist view (which attracted mostly military forces) and a socialist view (which attracted mostly social activists) as a new form of socialism, "Bolivarian socialism".

From http://nuso.org/media/articles/downloads/4.TC_Straka_268.pdf
Between Nationalism and Real Socialism
There has been much debate as to whether Chávez's project was socialist from the beginning, or whether the construction of "Bolivarian socialism" [...] was the result of a gradual radicalization. His contacts with communist groups since the 1980s, as well as his visit to Havana in 1994 and the presence of extreme left-wing advisors already in the 1998 election campaign, support the thesis that he always professed some kind of socialist thought [...].

Chávez went from exalting Tony Blair's "third way" and from outlining a typically nationalist and developmentalist model, to assuming Dietrich's thesis of "21st century socialism," albeit in a fairly free way; to finally arrive at his own version of socialism. [...] His thesis entitled "The Tree of the Three Roots" is based on the ideals (or rather, on an interpretation of the ideals) of the thinker and pedagogue Simón Rodríguez (1769-1854), the liberator Simón Bolívar (1783-1830) and the democratic-liberal leader Ezequiel Zamora (1817-1860). The ideological system EBR (by Ezequiel, Bolívar and Rodríguez) essentially adheres to classical nationalist history (the so-called "patriotic history"). The Bolivarian Alternative Agenda, written specifically to oppose the adjustment plan implemented in 1996 under the name of Agenda Venezuela, could be defined in a general way as a developmental and nationalist program that gives a great role to the state and control of the nation's resources, in opposition to the neoliberalism then in vogue. [...]
 
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