I sure wish it would warm up here in SW France. Even when the sun is shining, there is a constant flow of cold air from the North. It's freezing or nearly freezing every night for the last 4 or 5 days or so. Now, it looks like rain, but no warming.
My thought were lingering this morning
over France, as I studied the GFS weather prognosis charts for the next 14 days, as well the recent MIN & MAX temperatures there, (and of course I would think of you Laura, with everyone connected and present there), wondering how everyone feels about the chilly April weather that's been dragging without any warmth.
And Laura, you just wrote about the weather situation in SW France !
(I have this phenomena, that when I feel connected to people - I tend to follow the weather they are living in. This also (naturally) raises my curiosity, learning more about the weather character and patterns in a country)
It is one thing, to experience 9°C up here in Stockholm Sweden (which is a normal MAX temperature up here), but when you get 9°C in France during mid-April...and still frost... it must feel much colder for people living there. As I now look at the charts at
19.00, Friday 16 April 2021 and see its all kind the same in temperatures...
Paris: 9°C (48°F)
Dublin 11°C (52°F)
Berlin 9°C (48°F)
Warshawa 4°C (39°F)
Munich 6°C (42°F)
London 11°C (52°F)
Scottland 12°C (54°F)
Amsterdam 10°C (50°F)
Turino 6°C (42°F)
Barcelona 13°C (55°F)
Rome 12°C (54°F)
Oslo 12°C (54°F)
Helsinki 10°C (50°F)
Cagnes sur Mer 11°C (52°F)
It is only Portugal and the extreme SE of Spain as well parts of Greece and Turkey, which have summerlike temperatures above > 20°C. (68°F)
Those are really not impressive temperatures for mid April over Central Europe !
But -
it has happened before (except for that record cold earlier). However - what is lacking - are those typical sudden warm air attacks, spilling into Central Europe (in between sudden inflows of chilly air, typical for April). There just hasn't been any warm air pushes...
The GFS prognosis charts for the next 14 days indicate continued chilly weather over Central Europe, which I suspect can give ground frost e.g in SE France at higher elevations (> 400 m) which could go on into the first days of May. SW France should experience
slightly warmer, albeit unstable weather.
Important note:
Always take longer weather prognosis beyond day 5 with a grain of salt. They are notoriously changeable and unreliable !
Polar air mass • 16 April 2021
850 HPa level (1.5 km above the ground)
This chart is not to be mixed up with ground temperatures. This is a chart showing temperatures
1.5 km above the ground. I use this chart to
visualize the kind of airmass we are dealing with. It shows beautifully, how
chilly polar air, is flowing into Central Europe affecting a large area. This airmass appears to warm up rather slowly. It is also combined with wide spread low clouds, keeping temperatures low for this time of the year. As or if those dissipate during the night, you get moderate frost, such in entire Scandinavia, most parts of UK, some spots of Ireland, large portions of France and Germany, Switzerland, Austria, moderately elevated areas in Northern Spain, widespread areas over Balkan countries. Kind of most areas that are inside
the green area registered frost.
Stockholm • 16 April 2021
Since three days we have absolutely beautiful sunny weather. Frost occurs very night still (also pretty normal, I would say), and only moderate "warmth" with 9-11°C at the most. But for us up here, when the sun is shining so brightly...aah and ooh... it is absolutely heaven (with a thick jacket on, of course) !