Accident? Iranian President and Foreign Minister killed in Helicopter Crash

[Laurentien2]

Well, that may be a case of high strangeness. He (the pilot) was flying VFR and took the decision to fly above the cloud as the other 2 helicopters and he and is copter disappear from the other 2 helicopters sight.

from the article bellow;
According to Esmaili, weather conditions early on were normal, but 45 minutes into the flight the pilot of Raisi’s aircraft said he would increase altitude to avoid a cloud and ordered the two accompanying helicopters to do the same. Once they started to gain altitude, the two other helicopters suddenly lost sight of Raisi’s aircraft, which had been flying in the middle.

“After 30 seconds of flying over the clouds, our pilot noticed that the helicopter in the middle had disappeared,” Esmaili stated, adding that his aircraft went back and circled the area several times in search of Raisi’s helicopter. However, it was forced to abandon the search attempts due to poor visibility, and landed shortly afterwards at a nearby copper mine.

Tehran reveals more details of Raisi crash

The aircraft carrying Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi disappeared when attempting to increase altitude to avoid a cloud bank, official says

www.rt.com

 

[Possibility of Being]

Late Thursday last week (May 23), the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces released preliminary report on the crash. Typically worded and described by Iranian sources as "detailed" but it says very little.

Tasnim News Agency: the helicopter, following its predetermined route, crashed without deviation. It burst into flames upon collision with the mountainous terrain. The wreckage displayed no evidence of bullet holes or similar impacts. Iravaban adds a bit more:

The helicopter did not leave the approved flight path, the pilot of the helicopter had contact with the other two helicopters about one and a half minutes before the accident, no bullet or similar traces were found in the wreckage of the crashed helicopter. ... It is reported that there were no suspicious questions in the records of conversations of the staff.

Yesterday, Iran International (kind of a foreign agent) published a more detail article, quoting Esmaeili, as in the RT article in the post above, with timeline and illustrations. Highlights:

1:35 PM: En route to Tabriz, the helicopters attempted to avoid a “cloud layer” by increasing their altitude. While the first and third helicopters successfully navigated the clouds, the president’s helicopter, flying in the middle, disappeared. It was later discovered to have crashed, resulting in the deaths of all its passengers. Iran President chief of staff stated: "We emerged from the cloud layer very normally, even without any turbulence."

Esmaeili's account highlights two crucial points. The first point is his statement that the "weather was favorable, with no issues”.

Esmaeili's account also sheds light on his communication with cleric Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem, a passenger aboard the helicopter, post-crash.

Esmaeili explains that he attempted to contact the pilot, but Al-Hashem answered the phone instead. He reveals that he queried Al-Hashem about the incident, to which he responded that “he did not understand what has happened”.

In the interview, he stated that he was in contact with Al-Hashem for three to four hours after the incident. However, the alleged surviving passenger was found dead when rescue teams arrived, although his body was not burned like that of Raisi and others.

While “most likely the transponder system was turned off or that the helicopter did not have one,” the questions is if there was a mobile signal for up to three hours after the crash. In that case, why pinpointing the coordinates of the helicopter wreckage took 15 hours?

The latest images of Ebrahim Raisi show his bodyguard was almost always at his side. However, the released list of casualties revealed that he was not onboard.

Given that the Bell 212 helicopter can accommodate 15 passengers but only had 8 on board, the question arises: why did Ebrahim Raisi’s personal bodyguard continue the journey in a different helicopter?

Pinpointing the exact cause of the May 19 fatal crash is challenging. Such investigations are long and complex processes. But when it comes to the Iranian government, any such report should be taken with a pinch of salt. [Remember Ukrainian Airlines flight 752?]

Potential causes might include:
1. Weather condition ... but this contrasts sharply with the account given by the President's chief of staff ( "weather was favorable, with no issues.")
2. Technical Failure
3. Human error
4. Explosive Sabotage: In the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it is stated that “the pilot established contact with the pilot of another helicopter approximately one and a half minutes before the helicopter crash”. This again reinforces the hypothesis of a sudden and unprecedented incident.

Earlier, on May 22 The Cradle published the interview with Esmaili, with English subtitles:

The crucial point:

Esmaili: Not at all. There was fog on the ground, but not in up the air where we were advancing with the helicopters. However, in one small compacted area, there was a small patch of clouds above a cliff. In terms of height, this cloud was at the same height as our flight’s height.

It was there that the now-martyred helicopter pilot, who was also the commander of the fleet, told the rest of the pilots to ascend above the clouds. We were third behind the president’s helicopter. We rose above the clouds and advanced for approximately 30 seconds. Our pilot suddenly realized that the main helicopter carrying the president was missing. ...

After ascending above the clouds, we didn’t see the main helicopter. The ascension itself didn’t feel difficult or hard. Sometimes, when we use the plane, we feel turbulence, but we didn’t feel anything at all inside the helicopter this time when ascending. And after we ascended, there were no other clouds.

Now, John Helmer draws a reasonable hypothetical conclusion from Esmaili's answers and suggests that it looks like a case of CFIT (controlled flight into terrain) and there seems to be a collusion on keeping things quiet (D-notice?) .

IRAN INCIDENT, PERSIAN PUTSCH — EVIDENCE THAT PRESIDENT RAISI, FOREIGN MINISTER AMIR-ABDOLLAHIAN WERE MURDERED

by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with The release of fresh details of the fatal helicopter flight on May 19 which killed Iran’s President, Eb

johnhelmer.net

The release of fresh details of the fatal helicopter flight on May 19 which killed Iran’s President, Ebrahim Raisi, and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian is ruling out bad weather, machine failure, signals interference, on-board bomb or ground-fired missile as the cause of the crash. Iranian civilian, military and clerical officials are also excluding Israeli or US involvement.

Instead, Raisi’s chief of staff, Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili, a civilian lawyer and Raisi loyalist for many years, has described a sequence of details, preceding and following the incident, which hint at suicide murder by one of the pilots of the presidential aircraft.

Esmaeili made his remarks on Tehran television on the evening of May 21. He revealed that Raisi’s helicopter was flying second in a convoy of three aircraft, while Esmaeili was flying third, behind Raisi, when his helicopter “suddenly disappeared”. The pilot of the third helicopter then “decided to circle and return to search for the President’s helicopter”.

Esmaeili also said that attempted calls to Raisi, Amir-Abdollahian, and the pilot of their aircraft, Colonel Seyed Taher Mostafavi, all failed to produce a response. However, two calls were answered by Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem, the only passenger who appeared to survive the impact and fire of the crash, but died soon after. Al-Hashem represents the clerical power in East Azerbaijan province. According to Esmaeili, Al-Hashem said “our situation is not good, the copter has crashed into the valley”.

Al-Hashem’s remark appears to rule out a missile strike or bomb explosion.
Esmaeili’s statements rule out adverse weather conditions and the sight or sound of mid-air explosion. [...]

That leaves the Russian hint published by Konstantin Malofeyev, owner and editor-in-chief of Tsargrad, citing a retired Russian Air Force general. According to Major General Vladimir Popov (retired), “the main threat to top officials during air travel comes from themselves”.

The mainstream Russian press, the Moscow military bloggers, and RT, the state propaganda organ, have all avoided analysis of the incident forensics and speculation of motive; they have stuck to repeating official Iranian news releases. RT’s version of Esmaeili’s statements is significantly shorter and less comprehending than the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) report and the Times of India video.

“Esmaeili’s statement points to Raisi’s pilot making the decision to crash,” comments a western military source. “Why order the other two aircraft to ascend and get above the clouds, and then not do so himself?”

The chief pilot of the presidential aircraft was Colonel Seyed Taher Mostafavi; his co-pilot was Colonel Mohsen Daryanush. Their chief mechanic was Behrouz Ghadimi.

The Russian military bloggers have remained under-informative and non-committal. The Militarist and Boris Rozhin’s Colonel Cassad have republished in Russian the Iranian General Staff’s report without comment on what is missing from the analysis and what remains to be investigated. They, and Yevgeny Krutikov’s Mudraya Ptitsa, have all ignored Esmaeili’s television testimony. This lack of interest in the forensics of a high-profile incident in an allied country implies there is pressure from the Kremlin, Defense Ministry and GRU not to probe and not to speculate.

The General Staff report appears to signal that the Iranian Army will not be investigating foul play. [...]

 

[seek10]

IRAN INCIDENT, PERSIAN PUTSCH — EVIDENCE THAT PRESIDENT RAISI, FOREIGN MINISTER AMIR-ABDOLLAHIAN WERE MURDERED

by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with The release of fresh details of the fatal helicopter flight on May 19 which killed Iran’s President, Eb

johnhelmer.net

Instead, Raisi’s chief of staff, Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili, a civilian lawyer and Raisi loyalist for many years, has described a sequence of details, preceding and following the incident, which hint at suicide murder by one of the pilots of the presidential aircraft.

I thought this is interesting. It is sad to see how Iranian leadership shooting themselves after 45 years of resistance to the PTB.

How did it happen? Casual nature of it ( asking other pilots bypass the clouds, but he going into with out panic) very puzzling. Here is Time's article talking about suspicion on the guards and competition with Khamenei's son for succession etc. I am not sure how much to trust Time's article though.

When the helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi went missing on May 19, initial reports said nine passengers were on board, including two bodyguards. But after the wreckage was finally found, the number of bodies was eight. Four days later, the mystery of the second bodyguard was revealed in social media posts: Javad Mehrabl is seen leaning disconsolately in the rear of the memorial service for Raisi. Press accounts said that, at the last minute, his boss, Mehdi Mousavi, had directed him from the President’s helicopter to one of the two others moving in convoy that day.

After Mousavi died in the crash, his father told Iranian state television that he knew his son would not return from this trip. “The night before the trip he visited us,” the father says on camera. “He said goodbye and got into his car but returned and stayed 20 minutes. Then he left but after a short drive he returned again and spent 10 more minutes with us.” He grows choked up. “The third time when saying goodbye he kissed his mother, he kissed his mother’s feet, he kissed me, and then bent down and kissed my feet.

“It was then I knew he would go and never return, I knew we would never meet again.”

The bodyguards were members of a special unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military force created in 1979 to replace an Iranian army distrusted by the country’s new theocratic government. Their unit, Sepah Ansar al-Mahdi, is responsible for the personal security of the regime’s senior officials. To that end, its members carry phones specially equipped not only for secure communication, but also for location tracking. The device Mousavi carried on board presumably would have been useful in locating the helicopter, which went down in rugged terrain not far from Iran’s border with Azerbaijan. Yet it took 16 hours for rescuers to reach it.

The Sepah does not appear to be under suspicion, at least by Iran’s most senior official: In one photo from the funeral for Raisi and other victims, Sepah bodyguards account for a good two-thirds of the people arrayed behind Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His throat is warmed, as usual, by the cross-hatched scarf of the IRGC that signals his closeness to the Guard.

More than a week after Raisi was killed, mysterious questions persist not only about the crash, but also about what will come next.
...
Relatively unknown to the general populace just 10 years ago, Raisi had been fast tracked to national prominence just as the issue of Khamenei’s succession was gaining urgency. Rumors persist that the Supreme Leader has plans for his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed him. When, in a speech just hours after Raisi’s helicopter had gone missing, Khamenei prayed for his safe return but stressed that “the people should be confident that there will be no disturbance in the affairs of state.” His calm manner did not go unnoticed.
...

 

[Possibility of Being]

3 days ago, Alexey Pushkov on his video (in Ru) pointed to two interesting bits.

First, he quotes V.V. Putin as saying during his meeting with Lukashenko that the other two helicopters that were Russian, didn't suffer any damage; and then, Pushkov quotes Turkish media (link goes to G-translation):

The helicopters carrying Reisi were [usually] selected from Russian aircraft affiliated with Sipah (Revolutionary Guard). For the Tabriz trip, a 30-year-old US-made helicopter was preferred. Another important detail is that while the previous pilots were selected from the Revolutionary Guard Army, the flight crew for this trip was assigned from the Erteş (Army) staff. Three different tracking devices were fixed on the helicopter before the accident. In addition to the standard GPRS and transponder, a special system that provides 72-hour uninterrupted signal continuity was installed in the vehicle carrying Reisi. However, despite this, the location of the helicopter could not be determined.

If true (a big "if"), the CFIT option looks even more likely.

 

[Possibility of Being]

I am not sure how much to trust Time's article though.

Yup. Same goes for Turkiye. For some reason, it's mostly the Western and West-aligned media that talk about in-fights. Given that, how about Western plotting, planting the pilot and then blaming everything on internal discord?

Added: they get two "scores": they get rid of two important officials AND run their usual "divide and" scheme.

 

[Vulcan59]

FWIW, the late President Raisi was a possible successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but with his death, Khamenei's son is now a contender! Hmm...

The death in a helicopter crash of President Ebrahim Raisi, seen as a possible successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has reshuffled the cards in the succession process and increased the spotlight on the Iranian No. 1's, son Mojtaba as a contender.
...

Other than Raisi, the other widely tipped contender was Khamenei's son Mojtaba, 54, a shadowy figure rarely seen in public but hugely influential behind the scenes and sanctioned by the United States.

Raisi death reshapes Iran succession, putting focus on Khamenei son

Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's, son Mojtaba has emerged as a top contender.

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[Beau]

Wouldn't be at all surprised if the crash was a conspiracy within Iranian leadership. Putting all those eggs in one basket may have given someone the opportunity they were waiting for.

 

[Cosmos]

I think the pilot (and/or the copilot or someone else on the helicopter) committing a murder suicide sounds like the most plausible explanation so far. If so, the question is: Why?

Having said that, such a high profile incident is almost always closely managed in terms of what is made public, so it is also possible that something else happened.

 

[zak]

Some articles on this thread:
Before the crash.
Who Will Be Iran's Next Leader? Not Khamenei's Son • Stimson Center

After the crash.
Death of Iran’s President Complicates Leadership Succession Plans • Stimson Center
Raisi’s Death Unsettles Iran but Opens a Window for De-Escalation • Stimson Center
The Curse of Succession in Iran • Stimson Center

 

[Beau]

Some articles on this thread

Stimson Center is a DC think tank with strong ties to the MIC, so take it all with a grain of salt. A "window for de-escalation" is just empire-speak for regime change. They have no true insight into the real situation within Iran.

 

[zak]

Stimson Center is a DC think tank with strong ties to the MIC, so take it all with a grain of salt. A "window for de-escalation" is just empire-speak for regime change. They have no true insight into the real situation within Iran.

I agree with the obvious bias of this site, an example with this excerpt from a set that is accurate on the face of it, only to conclude that it's a sure sign of bad faith as well as a lie:

Iran has substantial influence over Hamas and even more sway with Hezbollah, which has exchanged fire repeatedly with Israel from its bases in Lebanon since last October. While the Biden administration and other Israeli allies pressure Israel to wind down its retaliation against Hamas in Gaza, Iran should be pushing Hamas to accept a cease-fire deal.

Thank you Beau for pointing this out.

I had read the first article, which gave a bit of background on Khamenei's successors, which was quite instructive for example:

The only flaw in his resume lies in the color of his turban, which unlike Khomeini’s and Khamenei’s, is not black. Black turbans are traditionally worn by Sayyids, who claim to be descendants of the Prophet Mohammad and Imam Ali, the first Shi’ite Imam. However, it’s worth noting that Hossein Ali Montazeri, a cleric initially appointed Khomeini’s successor, was also a white turban cleric.

And confirmed certain ideas, for example:

Khamenei, who succeeded Khomeini in 1989, has also characterized hereditary governance as contrary to Islamic principles. On several occasions, including in a speech in July 2023, he stated that “dictatorship and hereditary government are not Islamic” (though, given Iran’s situation, labeling dictatorship as non-Islamic raised eyebrows).

Supporters of Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession argue that Shi’ite Muslim tradition allows hereditary leadership in the concept of imamate. But religious experts counter that imams are chosen by God, while the supreme leader is elected by representatives of the people, and thus cannot be hereditary.

Those who do not believe Mojtaba will succeed his father also highlight another crucial issue: The system could face accusations of nepotism. Even if untrue, skepticism would likely persist, raising concerns that the Islamic system dismantled a hereditary monarchy and now wants to replace it with its own hereditary system under an Islamic guise.

With the recent death of Ebrahim Raisi, the cards have been reshuffled, giving Mojtaba Khamenei more opportunities to succeed his father.

Stimson Center is a DC think tank with strong ties to the MIC

Mic (media company)?

 

[seek10]

Stimson Center is a DC think tank with strong ties to the MIC, so take it all with a grain of salt. A "window for de-escalation" is just empire-speak for regime change. They have no true insight into the real situation within Iran.

If we look at the motive's (as we know of now) 3D political motive internal to Iran is understandable. But, what if there is more to it, given Khamenei's health is a big question mark and is 89 years old. Before I read internal political competition, I wondered about any 4D STS role in it and the following scenario?

Is the pilot greenbaumed? If it is 3D greenbauming or deliberate cooption, they would have tracked him before the assignment for high profile official assignment. Is it 4D greenbauming? It looks outlandish to even to consider. But if we consider C's comments related to 'semitic' genes of Iranians (on a individual basis) and 4D STS desire to eliminate them before transition, this doesn't look far fetched. Stakes are high for 4D STS w.r.t 'Semitic gene'. There are some video's of drone's moving around the area at that time( I haven't validated the timing of those videos) from neighboring air space. Did they use those drones to activate him?

What is interesting is Putin's reaction to the event. During the last decade, few times, Putin reacted with sense of urgency for the events that are not directly related to Russia's immediate needs- Attempted Coup in Turkey is one and this one is another. But Russians suddenly kept quite. Given the spying satellites ( and so on) they had, it is a piece of cake for Russians to see the sequence of events to suspect something off to it.

4D STS or their 3D interface MOSSAD will have no problem in creating this scenario of infighting for their benefit. At this point, it all looks like a political infighting.

 

[Possibility of Being]

What is interesting is Putin's reaction to the event. During the last decade, few times, Putin reacted with sense of urgency for the events that are not directly related to Russia's immediate needs- Attempted Coup in Turkey is one and this one is another. But Russians suddenly kept quite.

I wouldn't say there was no "reaction with a sense of urgency".

IRNA:

“Mr. Putin, despite Sunday being a holiday in Russia, held a meeting at 10:00 PM with the presence of senior officials of the country's defense and security apparatus and upon the invitation, I attended this meeting as the ambassador of the Islamic Republic”, Jalali said.

He added: “Russia’s Minister of Defense, Andrey Belousov; Secretary of the National Security Council, Sergei Shoigu; Chief of the Joint Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov; Minister of Civil Defense, Emergencies and Disaster Relief Alexander Korenkov; Special Assistant to the President, Igor Levitin and, one of the senior officials of the Federal Security Organization were present in the meeting”

4D STS or their 3D interface MOSSAD will have no problem in creating this scenario of infighting for their benefit. At this point, it all looks like a political infighting.

Possibly a variation of the agency's "delegate" method, just like with Trump and Suleimani; only this time they delegated the act of murder to Iranian pilot. At least that's what it looks like to me as a fair guess at the moment. And if that's the case, I don't think the Iranian authorities will publicly admit it, even with hard evidence in their hands.

 

[Beau]

Mic (media company)?

Military-Industrial Complex

 

[Possibility of Being]

Helmer doubles down on his position:

READY RECKONER FOR KILLING – THE RAISI ASSASSINATION

by John Helmer, Moscow @bears_with It was a frustrated Sherlock Holmes who told Dr Watson: “You will not apply my precept," he said, shaki

johnhelmer.net

It was a frustrated Sherlock Holmes who told Dr Watson: “You will not apply my precept,” he said, shaking his head. “How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?”

That was in 1890 in the Arthur Conan Doyle story, “The Sign of Four”.

Application of this Holmes rule of detection and deduction to the circumstances of the crash of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s helicopter on May 19 is now producing the inescapable conclusion that Raisi, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and the six others on board their aircraft were killed by the actions of one or both of the pilots, who intended their own suicide and the killing of their passengers.

This appears not to have been the conclusion of the Iranian Air Force commanders who paid a condolence visit to the families of the pilots on May 21, two days after their deaths.

But with the release last week by the Iranian Army’s General Staff of its second report on the fatal crash, the elimination of weather, machine failure, external missile attack, on-board bomb, electronic sabotage, and pilot navigational error is now complete. Together with the first General Staff report, the detailed Teheran television interview of Raisi’s chief of staff, Gholam-Hossein Esmaeili, and the eyewitness testimony by telephone from the crash scene by the Tabriz ayatollah, Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem, the evidence remaining is that the highly experienced chief pilot, Colonel Seyed Taher Mostafavi (lead image, right) made three mistakes — the first, to fly into the cloud bank after he ordered the others to climb above; the second, not to detect on his radar and other instruments the sharp mountain peaks in close proximity to his flight course at 2,200 metres; and the third, to crash in horizontal orientation, not vertically nose first.

Hattricks are rare, but they are never mistakes, never accidental.

To catch up on the forensic details as they were initially confirmed for the fatal incident, read this piece of May 27.

For a summary of the contradictory media reporting from Iranian military and other local sources, assembled by an anti-regime source in London, click to read. Israeli fabrication and disinformation on the incident is of decidedly lower quality than the Iranian propaganda; click to compare. [...]

Followed by further arguments and questions that need to be answered for his reasoning to be either supported or disproved.