Bank failures and the coming Economic collapse

Very difficult to believe that this isn't a flat out lie. People in such positions must know that the data is pointing in completely the opposite direction.
Yep, they must lie in order to calm people down at least...
There is a related quote of one of the american presidents, do not remember which one but in the first half of 20th century. Roughly: ‘The main ‘resource’ of a politician - is a short memory of the voter’.
Interesting forecasts here and there. But it is just floating in the air that something major will happen quite shortly...💁‍♂️

According to economist Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent investment company and author of several bestsellers, the biggest financial crash in history will happen by mid-June. In particular, he predicts the collapse of the S&P 500 indices by 86%, Nasdaq by 92% and bitcoin by 95%.

With regards to the ECM, yes the inflection point of 10th April is meant to be upwards or a rebound - but he also mentions that it coincides with Pi target. 8.6 years is 3140 days approximately the constant Pi. He also noticed that when you juxtapose the ECM cycles with Pi "targets" of 31.4 years; events also coincide (this is explained in min 21 of the ECM video). Apparently if you add 31.4 years to the beginning of this current 52 year cyle which began in 1985, you land at the exact date Trump gets elected. Hence April 10th 2023 also coincides with a Pi target from the collapse of the Soviet Union/birth of Ukraine. Either way we don't have long to find out if the model is still accurate as April 10th is 2 weeks away.

Just following up on the ECM with regards to April 10th which is meant to be an upward trend. Market wise it seems to be an "upward" trend. Most major stock market indices, oil, gold and some currencies are up; or flat. Hence you can say no major drama economically.

Earth Changes wise - there was the big eruption in Kamchatka of the Shiveluch volcano sending an ash cloud 20km through the atmosphere.

According to the ECM model, next date for the inflection point (this time a downward trend) is May 7th/8th 2023. I guess we can only observe and "wait and see".
Just to add, it feels a lot like the ending paragraph from James Howard Kunstler blog post :

"The Easter holiday was a strange hiatus in a year that promises fantastic turbulence in public affairs, including especially American politics and our wobbling economy. Financial markets and banks managed to levitate through the first weeks of springtime, but there is a bad odor of imminent failure in the air, at the same time that government's war against its own citizens shows signs of hardening into the threat of digital currency, renewed efforts at censorship, persecution of political opponents, and a growing awareness of "vaccine" caused death. The natives are restless, the animals are stirring. Events creep toward criticality"
I did not know where to post this, but I thought it might fit in here. During the last 3 months my bank invited me 3 times to take out a loan. About 25.000 Euro I would get. 2 Ladies were nice but the guy nearly tried to frighten me.
I think this is a strange offer of the bank. I dont know why they would do it. It was not a problem that I rejected but nevertheless I wonder . . . ..
I did not know where to post this, but I thought it might fit in here. During the last 3 months my bank invited me 3 times to take out a loan. About 25.000 Euro I would get. 2 Ladies were nice but the guy nearly tried to frighten me.
I think this is a strange offer of the bank. I dont know why they would do it. It was not a problem that I rejected but nevertheless I wonder . . . ..
Ha! Me too I was solicited 7 times this year! It's gotta be those juicy 5% interest rates... fighting 50% inflation! :whistle:
Not a great time to "lock" your assets in a sinking ship...

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned on Monday that the federal government could run short of cash to pay its bills as soon as next month without a debt limit increase.

“After reviewing recent federal tax receipts, our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government’s obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1, if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time,” Yellen wrote in a letter to House and Senate leaders.

She urged congressional leaders “to protect the full faith and credit of the United States by acting as soon as possible.”

“We have learned from past debt limit impasses that waiting until the last minute to suspend or increase the debt limit can cause serious harm to business and consumer confidence, raise short-term borrowing costs for taxpayers, and negatively impact the credit rating of the United States,”
Yellen wrote.

“If Congress fails to increase the debt limit, it would cause severe hardship to American families, harm our global leadership position, and raise questions about our ability to defend our national security interests,” she cautioned.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) also updated its forecast on Monday, warning there was a “significantly greater risk that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June” because of weaker-than-expected tax collections. The CBO had originally projected that a default could happen between July and September.

The warnings come after a months-long standstill in talks on the matter between the White House and Republicans in Congress.

Yellen has been voicing alarm since January, when the United States hit its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. At the time she notified Congress that the Treasury had begun resorting to “extraordinary measures” to avoid a federal government default.

On Monday, President Joe Biden called all four congressional leaders and invited them to a May 9 meeting on the issue.

Below is a brief but more detailed account as to what that means. Essentially, 22.5% of excess spending needs to be trimmed. The House Republicans may cave and cut a deal to raise the debt ceiling for 1 year, in return for reducing federal spending by 4.5 trillion, cutting back spending to last year's level, the scrapping of Biden's student loan handouts, a return of unspent covid funds to the Treasury, and a cap of 1% for the next 10 years.

It's looking like the can will be kicked down the road next month in preparation for the FedNow rollout in July.
I saw that, and well... I think it is partly true, but I also think that it is a bit political. Whenever this happens, that the ceilings of the debt is approaching, both parties start to hold the economy hostage to try to leverage something.

Not to sound too cynical, although maybe, whenever they announce it with such a time frame, I tend not to trust them entirely, it's the unannounced drops, like what just happened to a whole bunch of local banks, after the First Republic Bank purchase by JP Morgan Chase, that are really scary IMO.

So, the economy isn't going to collapse because the US stops paying its debt, but the banking industry, is really flimsy this year.
A graph showing the magnitude of the bank collapses in 2008 and 2023 (ongoing ...)

Bloomberg: A large-scale crisis awaits the US banking system

The stock prices of regional US banks have fallen to their lowest values since 2020. According to Bloomberg analysts, this may indicate the entry of the country's banking system into a state of chronic crisis.

The reason for this assessment was a number of high-profile bank failures that have occurred since the beginning of March this year. The total value of the bankrupt Signature, Silicon Valley and First Republic exceeds half a trillion dollars. And this is more than the cost of 165 banks that ceased operations at the height of the financial crisis of 2008-2009.

Against this background, the quotes of a number of large financial institutions began a sharp decline. In a short time, the index of regional banks decreased by more than 5% — to the lowest level since 2020.

"Recent bankruptcies have created a watershed moment for the industry," says Huntington Bank Chief executive Steve Steinur.

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