Civil War in Ukraine: Western Empire vs Russia

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It's a very good sign that Ukrainians are seeing in larger numbers that this whole tragedy is foreign instigated/manipulated. This latest round of hostilities and attempted mobilization is a bigger disaster for the Ukrainian military than the last ones. Probably in another few weeks, the whole front will collapse and the remnants of their military will have panicked, chaotic retreats. What happens from there is anybody's guess....
 
Skyalmian said:
Niall said:
Lumiere_du_Code, Thorbiorn, and others. You do not need to deactivate links you post here by placing an underscore in front of them, unless they are known disinfo sites, or blatant propaganda articles from mainstream sites. Surely you WANT people to read RT, fortruss, etc??!
It will take time to undo that because it's been a forum-wide pattern for years.

OK, I only recently started doing this because I see that everyone is doing it, so I thought that maybe here so accepted to do with links :rolleyes:
 
SeekinTruth said:
It's a very good sign that Ukrainians are seeing in larger numbers that this whole tragedy is foreign instigated/manipulated. This latest round of hostilities and attempted mobilization is a bigger disaster for the Ukrainian military than the last ones. Probably in another few weeks, the whole front will collapse and the remnants of their military will have panicked, chaotic retreats. What happens from there is anybody's guess....
Yes, it is uplifting that more people are getting it. One could wish it had happened earlier, but that was not to be. Apart from people in Ukraine there are also the expat Ukrainian associations in various countries. It is no doubt important for the US etc to guide the opinions of the expats into accepting the version presented by the EU/NATO/US as the gospel truth on the issue on Ukraine and Russia. I don't think it is a mistake to claim that a few of the people in the expat community are funded or get pocket money to help promote the US version.

In the previous post, I explained that the mobilization is not going well for Kiev and ealier I mentioned Mozgovoy's and Victoria Shilova's accusations against the Ukrainian oligarchs. In this post, I will attempt to present links and excerpts which, among others, can give ideas to the possible outcome of the declining support.

The following article presents a connection between the mobilization and the overall political situation from the perspective of a Ukrainian nationalist.
http://fortruss.blogspot.dk/2015/01/regions-will-start-to-separate.html said:
"Regions will start to separate"--Ukrainian nationalist condemns the regime
Forcible Mobilization May Cause Uprisings, Regions Will Start to Separate.
Oleg Soskin, Head of the Ukrainian National Conservative Party
Translated from Russian from J.Hawk

[Minister of Defense] Poltorak apparently does not understand what he’s talking about. He made an announcement on January 31 that now every Ukrainian citizen of military age cannot leave the country without some document from a military commissariat.

Such a total forcible mobilization will lead to only one thing: the regions will begin to separate. The people will simply rise up. Because the army is headed by incompetent, corrupt persons who did not undergo lustration, who are the leftovers from the bandit regimes of Kuchma, Yushchenko, Yanukovich. Parents will no longer want to give up their children, and young men will not accept the commands of various Russian spies.

Thousands died in the Ilovaysk pocket, and so far nobody has been punished, Geletey and [General Staff chief] Muzhenko are still occupying high posts. Donetsk airport was heroically defended for 242 days, but then Muzhenko showed up and gave it up in two days, and he is still at his post, not to mention he has not been arrested. We can see what is happening in Debaltsevo and Schastye, people are dying there every day.

Who will return the sons and husbands to their parents, wives, and families? What are they fighting for? For the sake of what? For the sake of oligarchic clans? For the sake of Walzman-Poroshenko, Kuchma-Pinchuk? For Ukraine? But Ukraine is headed by Moscow spies.

Translator’s Note: An attack on the regime from the other direction, the direction of ultra-right nationalist parties, is yet another indicator that everyone knows which way the wind is blowing in Kiev. The current regime is not long for this world. The next one is likely to be even worse for the people of what’s left of Ukraine. However, it’s a country in a severe need of ideological detox, which is going to be an immensely painful experience. It’s one thing to be cheering “Glory to Ukraine” while your army’s artillery shells are raining on Donetsk and Gorlovka. But when you experience the iron fist of that political system on your own face, then you realize what it is that you have been cheering for.

The accusations against high officials from the right side of the political spectrum is not the only issue because there are rifts between Poroshenko supporters on one side and Yatsenyuk and Turchinov on the other.

http://fortruss.blogspot.dk/2015/01/poroshenko-to-rehabilitate-berkut-blame.html said:
Poroshenko to Rehabilitate Berkut, Blame Heavenly Hundred on Maidan Organizers?
1/27/2015
Poroshenko cozying up to Berkut? The Heavenly Hundred was shot by its own side.
[ http://antifashist.com/item/poroshenko-zaigryvaet-s-berkutom-nebesnuyu-sotnyu-rasstrelyali-svoi-zhe.html]
By Olga Talova
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

The fans of the Maidan and the Heavenly Hundred’s Witnesses are in for some hard times, full of surprises and unexpected discoveries. For example, it will turn out that it was not the Bloody Berkut who shot Nigoyan and 99 others, which was the popular wisdom for the last year. Now it turns out that Berkut is not to blame.

One of the leaders of the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD), the First Deputy Chairman of the Main Investigative Directorate of the Police, Vitaliy Sakal, made a sensational announcement. He said that a group of investigators “which is working the sensational Maidan killings, no longer suspects members of the Berkut special unit of the killings of Maidanites.”
[...]
Conclusions? A year after the coup we are seeing the reverse process. It turns out Berkut was not guilty, Heavenly Hundred was killed by their own side, the peaceful Maidan legend is collapsing and with it the legend of its leaders Yatsenyuk, Klichko, Tyagnibok. It’s not ruled out that the MVD investigative team will even get around to investigating who burned the people in Odessa on May 2…

This topic surfaced precisely now, when experts are predicting a new February Maidan. There are ongoing preparations to dump the Right Sector and ultranationalists who served as Maidan’s shocktroops. The fact that Right Sector Yarosh immediately found himself in a hospital with a dangerous wound (initially he said it was just a scratch) is not coincidental. Poroshenko is beginning his counteroffensive in order to put out the fire of a future coup, and also to distract from the surrender of the Donetsk Airport and other events on the Eastern Front. Nobody wants to swing from the yardarm. Therefore the Nazi formations are being abandoned, while Berkut, on the other hand, is being rehabilitated, because the authorities clearly want to have the professionals on their side so that they will have someone to defend them in the event the ultras and punitive battalions start their march on Kiev to attempt overthrowing Poroshenko.

Translator’s Note: Indeed, Poroshenko has certain skills as an infighter and is using them to stay alive in this game. He does have the advantage of having the control of the MVD, which he can use to outflank virtually all of his opponents. It also does not hurt that Poroshenko himself kept a far lower profile on the Maidan than other members of the current elite, including Yatsenyuk. Time will tell whether Yatsenyuk and others will allow Poroshenko acquire such a lethal political weapon that could be used against pretty much anyone associated with the Maidan. But the alternative would be for them to side with Yarosh, Azov, OUN-UPA, and other such organizations against Poroshenko…
Note to the above article: The article presents some of the evidence for saying that the heavenly hundred were not killed by Berkut, including that the weapons used did not match with those of Berkut etc

Besides the Azov battalion mentioned above, there are many other volunteer battallions in Ukraine see https://medium.com/@Hromadske/ukraines-shadow-army-b04d7a683493 for a slightly outdated list of emblems.The members of the volunteer battalions are technically either serving under the Ministry of Internal Affairs or the Ministry of Defence although not without problems as evidenced in http://www.sott.net/article/292103-Ukraines-Aidar-battalion-fighters-attempt-to-storm-military-HQ-in-Kiev

Not only are Pososhenko's opponents being implicated in the murder of the Maidanites. The accusations go further as evidenced in this report:
http://fortruss.blogspot.uk/2015/01/yatsenyuk-and-turchinov-started-war.html said:
"Yatsenyuk and Turchinov started the war!"--Poroshenko Block Deputy 1/30/2015
One of Rada Deputies announced that Yatsenyuk and Turchinov started the war on the Donbass. [ http://www.pravda.ru/news/world/formerussr/ukraine/30-01-2015/1246424-yacenyk-0/ ]
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

Sworn friends from the Maidan are getting down to brass knuckles.
Sergey Kaplin, a Poroshenko Block Rada Deputy declared on one of Ukrainian TV channels that the Donbass war was unleased by the Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Security and Defense Committee chief Aleksandr Turchinov. And they are blaming it on Putin because it’s “convenient for them.” This news was reported by PolitNavigator.

“Let’s get to the truth. Who caused the situation in the East? When they say ‘only Putin’, that’s a very convenient answer. But it’s not so! It was caused by Yatsenyuk and the current head of SDC,” said Kaplin.

He went on to say that the war could have been ended right away, but neither Yatsenyuk nor Turchinov were interested in it.

“As soon as the situation began to unfold, I was one of the first deputies to go there, I visited all the cities, and felt a real war beginning. It could have been prevented by the prime minister himself and the acting president. And these are the people who today are in charge of the “counter-terror operation,” said Kaplin.

We reported earlier the wave of rumors circulating in Ukraine that a new coup d’etat is being readied.

We also remind our readers that the Ukrainian delegate to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe Yuliya Levochkina called on Europe to restrain the Ukrainian government which is destroying the Donbass.
Besides Poroshenko accusing Yatsenyuk and Turchinov, Kolomoyskyi's people are also having issues with the present situation.
http://fortruss.blogspot.dk/2015/01/kolomoisky-camp-accuses-poroshenko-of.html said:
Kolomoisky camp accuses Poroshenko of understating the colossal losses at the front
January 31, 2015
Svyatoslav Oliynyk, reposted by Varyag_2007
Translated by Kristina Rus

Administration of Petro Poroshenko continues to hide huge losses of the Ukrainian forces in Donbass. Such a conclusion can be drawn from a post on the Facebook page of Deputy Chairman of Dnepropetrovsk city state administration, Svyatoslav Oliynyk. [ https://www.facebook.com/svyatoslav.oliynyk/posts/843479825718424 ]

"Today during a conference call with the President's Administration, after I brought up the real numbers of wounded soldiers and other figures associated with the war in Donbass, the first Deputy Head of the Administration advised me to choose: whether I am a civil servant or a member of the opposition?

And I have since been thinking all the time: who is in the opposition to whom?
If the actual figures of the national problem do not coincide with the opinion of "top", that means, I am in the opposition. But if the "top" does not perceive reality, then it follows that the "top" is in the opposition to the problem.

Anyway, I am confused," - wrote Oliynyk.
Of course, if the government does not function well internally, and does not get along with their officials or with the people then it does not bode well for the future. The speculations about the future after Poroshenko are not missing. Whereas it can not be ruled out that some of the analyses are themselves a part of the conflict, it is still evident that something is happening:
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ru/2015/01/and-hell-was-following-them.html which is a translation of an analysis by Rostislav Ischenko, president of the Center for system analysis and forecasting, exclusively for the “Current Comments”. The Russian original you find here: http://actualcomment.ru/i-ad-sledoval-za-nimi.html The article is not very optimistic about the future prospects even if Novorossiya manages to send the UA away.

And there is http://fortruss.blogspot.dk/2015/01/ukraine-after-poroshenko-analysis-by.html a translation of an analysis by Aleksandr Rodzhers originally from _http://ruspravda.info/Kiev-shtormit-9908.html [Caution: Malware Byte did not like something that tried to accessed my pc when I went on the site of ruspravda.into. A decent firewall, anti malware is probably helpful] The source used for translation was taken from: http://freepublish.ru/analitika/kiev-shtormit/ where I did not have any problems.

Aleksandr Rodzhers said:
No. 10. SecState Kerry personally flew to IMF to persuade them to stop Kiev credits under the pretext of “absence of reforms.” It’s clear to everyone that it’s because the junta can’t suppress the Donbass and transfer the instability into Russia. That all of it happened so publically suggests that Poroshenko is being flushed.

That Poroshenkos government is being downgraded to junk status by the US is possible. And the following clip on CNN about the attack by the UAF on people in line for aid would not help to present a favourable picture. http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2015/01/30/pkg-paton-walsh-ukraine-donetsk-shelling.cnn
The video was done by CNN right after an attack hit the line, (I mentioned the attack a couple of days ago.) Among other scenes there is an interview with a local woman. She explains that her husband talked about the possibility of being blown up, and she had responded that if that happened, then she would sign up and fight for him, because then there would be nothing left for her to live for. - She told the journalist she was ready to call the militia right there and then, she only needed the phone number.

There has been some discussion about whether the bombings of civilian targets are accidents or deliberate. Most consider it to be intentional in order create terror etc. Recently a military post belonging to the Ukrainian Army was run over and the soldiers fled their positions to save their lives, but left behind basically everything else as one can see in this video. Among the belongings, weapons and sleeping bags the Novorossiya army found a map with locations of civilian targets to be shelled.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/MCcl60gND7g?

The above videos are sad, and if one is to believe some of the scenarios presented by the analysts, this whole conflict is very far from being over. Even if a lot of Ukrainians decided it is enough, even if the government is replaced, even if the UA army goes home there are many problems to be solved, and the presence of the "third force", eager to keep Ukraine and even Europe unstable in order to weaken Russia, is not gone.

About the position of Europe in this conflict there are some remarks in this interview with the Russian film maker Nikita Mikhalkov. Here is an example:
http://fortruss.blogspot.ca/2015/01/nikita-mikhalkov-europe-is-hospice-and.html said:
January 30, 2015
Nikita Mikhalkov (Russian filmmaker) - Russia 24
Translated by Kristina Rus
[...]
Those people who opened the pandora box, do they understand what they are doing? Or will that understanding come after?

They did this consciously, but they are not sure how this will end. This is not Libya, Georgia, not former Ukraine, this is completely different. And for them there are already many surprises, when the country is in default, and the money that goes there to help the population, suffering from the crisis, simply gets stolen, when the gas is stolen, when one of the oligarchs sells his own army defective body armor for three times the price, this is an alternative reality. I am convinced they live without a sense of their country, without imagining the consequences. Every minute they look back to check if the uncle is still there, who will support them if anything. They are doing absolutely insane things. And what's more incredible, absolutely subconsciously, every step makes them terrified from realizing how this might end for them.

I was told an incredible story. A person went to an international conference, not from a tribune, but in the hallways, tried to show the Europeans pictures from Donbass. No one looked. They just didn't look. One simply closed his eyes. To avoid a reaction. This lack of responsibility ... This is very much like the Sicilian mafia, I can't see it, I can't hear it, it doesn't exist. Because if I see it I have to react. And how can I react to what I see, and say - they burned themselves, or that militia is burning the houses of their own relatives, who live there.

This is infantilism of fat, cowardly Europe, which as of today has become an absolute colony.
They don't understand, they lived the last fifty years under the nuclear umbrella of the United States. They assembled into one community, thinking that with 20 old guys you can make one young. Not understanding that what they created is a hospice, a hospice with warm toilets, with soft slippers, breakfast, lunch and dinner, everything is very well, then ...boom! Paris. What's next? I am Charlie? What is I am Charlie? Freedom of speech? You let those people in yourselves. One second ... "We have a free country, we have cartoons since the 17th century" And so what? "We can" No, you can't.

[...]

Nikita Mikhalkov is right about the closed eyes and not wanting to see, but as I mentioned in the beginning there are also Ukrainians in the EU that help to keep the eyes closed.
 
Here is yet another video about the use of arms of various kinds supplied by NATO countries.

https://youtu.be/wnMzsgyTHaQ?feature=player_detailpage

It is about a year since the Maidan took place. A review of what is knwn now about the preparations etc is found here.
http://ian56.blogspot.dk/2015/01/how-february-coup-in-kiev-was-plotted.html

This is also having an interesting list of links and comments: http://ian56.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-us-says-there-are-no-nazis-in-kiev.html
 
Thanks Thorbiorn for the links and documentation.

As so much information is starting to come out from the US and from within the junta themselves, I was thinking of writing an article with a short bullet point list of admissions with links. Included in this list would be:


  • Ukraine general says no Russian troops in Ukraine
  • Obama admits role in Coup, though he calls it transition
  • Maidan massacre not committed by Berkut, but by insiders within the Maidan group
  • Poroshenko deputy say that Yatseniuk and Turchinov started war (and thus it wasn't Russia as they have claimed up until now.
  • Admission from Ukrainian sources that they specifically target civilian structures

If you have more please post it here with a link to the documenting article. Sources has to be from Kiev Junta or Western intelligence or leaders. As the war is going badly, the infighting is starting and a lot of dirty linen is coming out in the open. Things that the Russians and Novorussians have said alll along are now being expressed by the junta and the West themselves. At least that is what I see is happening.

The idea is to make it a short article that can easily be translated into other languages. Then the info is there for all to see in one article and those wishing to know more can click the links. The common excuses such as:

  • "it was too hard to find"
  • "It was nowhere in my language"
  • "It was too hard to truly find out the truth just too confusing"
  • " I don't have time to wade throught thousands of articles"
  • "It is all just Russian propaganda"
What do you think?
 
Article posted by the Saker - http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ch/2015/01/and-hell-was-following-them.html

As others have indicated here, situation for Government/army is not looking good - there is a fear though that more extreme elements would abuse the situation to take over control and make things even worse. Below the Saker posted an article of what might occur.


Friday, January 30, 2015
And Hell was following them…
source: http://actualcomment.ru/i-ad-sledoval-za-nimi.html

(Translated by Eugene)

I don’t know who exactly (Turchinov? Poroshenko?) commanded the Ukrainian army to disrupt the truce. But I am sure that this decision was taken in Washington.

It is not an accident that this suicidal provocation was preceded by the visit of G. Soros to Kiev. This elderly “philanthropist” who, together with the US Department of State, sponsored all post-soviet fascist regimes (from Saakashvili’s Georgia to Poroshenko’s Ukraine), was most qualified to assess the financial state of the regime in Kiev and to decide whether it still makes sense to continue prolongation of the agony by monetary injections. His public statement, reprinted by media on January 14, left no doubt - the patient is dead, the corpse is stiff, its resuscitation is meaningless.

Surely, Kiev has understood that if they scrape the bottom of the barrel and if Europe exerts itself then it is possible to collect money for further agony. But Soros clearly said about the necessity to find $50 billion just for 2015. While in 2014 (when the ignoramuses still hoped for the stabilization of the Kiev regime) US, EU and IMF together could scrape up only $20 billion, supposed to be stretched over 3 years. In fact, in 2014 Kiev got only $7.5 – 8 billion in credits. Clearly, in such conditions it is unrealistic to find $50 billion in a year. Soros himself told that he hopes only for a miracle.

Right after Soros’ unambiguous demand for the EU to finance Ukraine, the European media coverage of the Ukrainian crisis changed drastically, and it became clear that there will be no miracle. The European mass media (including German TV) and NGO’s (including Human Rights Watch) suddenly "saw the light" and found that the Kiev regime is at war with civilians, violating the laws and customs of war. Just a little bit longer and Europe will “realize” that Kiev is taken by a fascist junta that tramples its own constitution, and introduce sanctions against Russia for Kremlin’s economic cooperation (supply of coal and gas) with the Nazi regime.

Europe is not going to give money. USA are not going to help either (if they wanted to do that, the IMF would not procrastinate for six months but allocated tranche after tranche, instead). Under these conditions, supporting Ukraine’s mythical stability, as Washington was doing since the end of last summer, is absolutely meaningless. Back in August-September of 2014, Ukrainian politicians were divided into two groups: the majority – those who were ready to overthrow Poroshenko, expecting to receive some dividends from the next coup, and the minority taking a neutral position. Poroshenko himself had neither his own support group nor power prop. He is still the president only thanks to the US, which banned the coup at the time.

Washington knew perfectly well that Poroshenko is trying to negotiate with Moscow on the peaceful settlement (because only peace could give Poroshenko a chance to protect not just his presidential chair, but his life itself). United States needed a war and, seemingly, they did not want to keep the frightened and confused Petro Alexeyevich at the helm. But Americans were misled by Russian diplomacy. Peace was (and remains) beneficial for Russia, because it forces the United States and its European allies to keep the failed Ukrainian project alive and, therefore, to spend their scarce resources. The Ukrainian coup, intended to make from Kiev not only an eternal source of enmity between Russia and the EU, but also a black hole devouring Moscow’s resources, has not fulfilled any of its tasks -- a year after the coup, Ukraine continues to devour the US resources.

But since Ukraine is just one of many sites of global confrontation between Moscow and Washington, the further concentration of efforts on this site becomes unprofitable for the US. They cannot quit, because then the site will be taken by Russia, which would be a geopolitical defeat of Washington. Therefore, the site must be destroyed. Let the winner occupy the ruins; if they could not entangle him by the whole Ukraine, let he be entangled by the rotting and decaying corpse of Ukraine.

So, since for Russia it is better if Ukraine is destroyed by the US as late as possible, the Russian diplomacy pretended for almost a year, portraying weakness, confusion, and readiness to surrender. In anticipation of the fall of Russia, which would solve all their problems, the United States decided not to finish Ukraine. Why? If, after the victory over Russia, the problem of supporting the Kiev regime at the expense of Moscow would be solved by itself.

But everything good comes to an end sooner or later. By the beginning of December it became clear that Washington can push Russia as much as it likes, but it cannot make Russia fall, without falling itself even sooner. Taking into account the need to reduce the geopolitical frontline, to concentrate resources on the remaining priority areas, to leave the lost grounds, the question resurfaced again – what to do with Ukraine? As soon as it became clear that Soros is not going to find the necessary finances for Kiev, the fate of the country, politicians, the public and even the “creative class” accustomed to be immune to problems, was sealed. And the war reignited with renewed ferocity.

US knew perfectly well how unfit for action the Ukrainian army was and how the armed forces of DPR/LPR have strengthened during the peaceful respite. You don’t have to sit at the Chiefs of Staff Committee to estimate from open sources that with such intensive fights, which began on January 18th and continuing across the frontline, the Ukrainian army will run out of strength to conduct active operations in three to four weeks, and in one to three more weeks it will begin to fall apart. By the way, the Ukrainian artillery will be the first to disappear from the battlefield. Judging by the intensity and dynamics of the artillery fire of the parties, the Ukrainian army was behind DPR/LPR even on the volume of stored ammunition. While the republics clearly had a constant resupply, the Ukrainian army could not replenish consumable ammunition just as rapidly. After the Ukrainian artillery lost the opportunity of equal fight with the artillery of DPR/LPR, grinding of Ukrainian reserves was a matter of short time, and after the exhaustion of reserves the collapse of the front would became inevitable. Making up for the losses by means of mobilization was impossible, even if they could mobilize everyone. In the best case, the recruits would have been at the collection points, when the front already collapsed.

Americans knew all that, but still pushed the Ukrainian army into a senseless attack, which could not even start in earnest. That is the army was doomed to destruction and the front was destined to collapse. Why did the United States need that? Because, as we mentioned above, the US does not need the unattainable victory in Ukraine, they need the destruction of Ukraine, but by someone else's hands and with the greatest possible benefit for themselves.

Three to four weeks of intense fighting would not only bleed the Ukrainian army, but would also inflict substantial losses on the armed forces of DPR/LPR. From the first days, the militia admits its own losses of dozens if not hundreds killed and wounded, while noting that the losses of the Ukrainian army are much higher. Let us not forget that the armed forces of DPR/LPR currently do not exceed 30-40 thousand soldiers, even by the most optimistic estimates. Taking into account that 10-15 thousand are logistical and security units, there cannot be more than 20-25 thousand of combat troops. This means that even the loss of 3-5 thousand -- and this number of dead and wounded in three to four weeks of intense fighting is quite possible -- dramatically reduces the combat capability of the militia forces.

So, by the mid-late February the Ukrainian army would have to fall apart and start a disorganized retreat, but the scarce militia forces, having suffered serious losses, would be unable to take the territory left by the withdrawing Ukrainian troops. This would create vast power-vacuum areas between DPR/LNR and Kiev, where the militia and some residual government troops would alternate to each other as in a layered cake. To the extent that different streets of the same locality could be held by different armed groups. In addition, while the DPR/LPR armed forces are organized as more or less regular structures with a unified chain of command, the army of Kiev keeps sliding to irregular formations, which, with the death of the last regular units, would finally transform to a bunch of Nazi gangs and outright criminals partially diluted by completely kooky “veterans of the anti-terrorist operation”.

In this situation, Nazi battalions concentrated in the major cities of the southeast in order to maintain the power in Kiev, will grow more irritated and the Kiev propaganda will become more nervous. This would increase the bitterness towards the power that "betrayed us” as well as pro-Russian activists -- "the 5th column that stabbed us in the back". Any pretext will be enough to inflame the whole country. However, in order to paralyze the world community and to disable its instantaneous and consistent reaction, the pretext for the repeat of the Ruanda scenario (mutual senseless massacre) must be beyond belief and, at the same time, radically change the current political situation.

That is, it is not enough to organize a loud act of terror or a series of such acts on behalf of “pro-Russian partisans” or “FSB (GRU, SVR) agents”. This provocation must move the Nazi community and channel its efforts in the desired direction. Besides, the Ukrainian government must be (or look) paralyzed. Finally, this event should be sufficiently bloody, sufficiently immoral and touch those strata of the society, which are perceived by the Nazis as their own. These conditions cannot be satisfied with a single yet spectacular act of terror (such problems cannot be solved even by an explosion at Chernobyl).

Clearly, first of all they would need death of a major political figure or figures, so that allegedly (or really) paralyzed Ukrainian government could not take measures to restore the order, even if it wanted to. Poroshenko is a perfect sacral victim (especially because he is a traitor to the Americans), but in place of the "young prodigy" Yatsenyuk I would have not relaxed as well. After liquidation of Ukraine, Yatsenyuk becomes useless and even dangerous as he can testify to some sort of "International Tribunal for the Former Ukraine." For a country without economy this symbolic economist is just as useless as the great banker Yuschenko. Credits are not coming with or without Yatsenyuk. To die heroically is the only benefit that he can bring to the US. If someone blows up the parliament during a plenary session with both Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk in attendance, could you guess who will be declared guilty even before any investigation? Especially if some "people's avengers" would claim the responsibility afterwards?

Of course, the Nazis from battalions spit on Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk, but their battalion commanders will be there as well: Yarosh and sotnik Parasyuk and cossack Gavrylyuk – it would be so indecent not to avenge them. Moreover, if this seems not enough, they could carry out a series of terrorist attacks in the hospitals where the "heroes ATO" are treated. Imagine how barbaric killings of defenseless "heroes" will be presented by the Ukrainian media. They will not even need a training manual from the American Embassy; they will interpret everything correctly by themselves.

Well, and as "the cherry on the cake" one can explode the cascade of the Dnieper hydropower plants. This would solve several US problems at once. First, the real damage as a result of flooding will not be as great, but cameras positioned in advance in the right places will show pictures more terrible than during the tsunami in Thailand, and "experts" (incidentally, also on their own initiative) will immediately proclaim millions of potential victims. Second, this will immediately cut off the left bank of the Dnieper River from the right one. The dam will be blown, and bridges destroyed. That is, the militia will not able to cross the Dnieper without the help of the Russian Army. Third, if all this (from the elimination of the political elite to the man-made technological disasters) happens in three to five to ten days and if it becomes possible (sure it does, otherwise, why are we feeding CIA?) to accuse Russia and DPR/LPR of participation or at least of indirect sponsorship of the terrorists, the consolidated international community will not take quick control of Ukraine. Any participation of Russia will be blocked by the West accusing Moscow of complicity in the crime, but Western forces themselves could not stabilize the situation (even if the US and the EU decided to act without a UN resolution, they will not have the required operational capacity and available troops). Fourth, while the US needs that, even Turchinov can legitimately represent Kiev and lead the remnants of the government, which is dispensable as well.

The further course of events is also clear. The Nazis go to avenge their “brothers in arms”. The battalions spread out across the country, checking addresses from databases provided be fellow Nazis from the SBU and parts of the Ministry of Interior. The militia will still be able to quickly lend a helping hand to Kharkov, Left Bank districts of Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye, to punch a land corridor to the Crimea. But without Russia’s help they cannot go further - there are no bridges. Left bank guerrilla groups are stronger. Of course, they will resist in Odessa, possibly even in Kiev, but the forces are not equal. The mere fact of partisan resistance on the right bank will deprive the junta of the support of the Ukrainian "creative class". Nobody needs them in the US, because they cannot work, but like to eat well. Nobody will feed them for their "Ukraineness" (who needs Ukraineness without Ukraine?). Each of them doesn’t know much, but taken together their testimonies would allow to piece together the full picture. And if in the course of Ukrainian excesses they will be killed in their own homes, so be it. "Tutsi" kill "Hutu", "Hutu" kill "Tutsi" - this is a sad feature of civil wars.

Thus, pushing Ukraine from Somalization to Ruandization, the United States are fully capable to minimize the effect of Russia’s victories, cover the traces of their own crimes with blood and, most importantly, make their participation in the coming settlement not just necessary, but inevitable, thus preserving their positions on the European continent and their control over the frightened EU.

We considered just one scenario of the possible provocation that would allow Washington to solve the problem of burning down the Ukrainian stand. In fact, there are hundreds of similar scenarios. All of them are real, and some of them must be already developed by the Americans. Otherwise, the security services, the military and the State Department are paid for nothing. The number of crimes already committed by Washington and Kiev suggests that the above scenario is not something extraordinary, on the contrary – it is well within the logic of the previous actions. In February 2014, a hundred of “Maidan” victims stimulated the coup; three hundred victims in the downed "Boeing" allowed to deploy the summer offensive; tens of thousands of killed Ukrainians serve as a means to pressure Russia. Then how the tens of thousands of victims are different from the hundreds of thousands or even millions? Only by the fact that the US did not have the need to organize a mass human sacrifice in Ukraine yet. Now there is such a need.

Two things can still save people:

Ukrainian executors’ traditional inability to implement even single American plan;
Putin’s traditional ability to come up with a decent way out of most desperate situations.

But these things are beyond the scope of rational analysis. They are matters of luck.

Rostislav Ischenko, president of the Center for system analysis and forecasting, exclusively for the “Current Comments”.
 
Aeneas said:
Thanks Thorbiorn for the links and documentation.

As so much information is starting to come out from the US and from within the junta themselves, I was thinking of writing an article with a short bullet point list of admissions with links. Included in this list would be:


  • Ukraine general says no Russian troops in Ukraine
  • Obama admits role in Coup, though he calls it transition
  • Maidan massacre not committed by Berkut, but by insiders within the Maidan group
  • Poroshenko deputy say that Yatseniuk and Turchinov started war (and thus it wasn't Russia as they have claimed up until now.
  • Admission from Ukrainian sources that they specifically target civilian structures

If you have more please post it here with a link to the documenting article. Sources has to be from Kiev Junta or Western intelligence or leaders. As the war is going badly, the infighting is starting and a lot of dirty linen is coming out in the open. Things that the Russians and Novorussians have said alll along are now being expressed by the junta and the West themselves. At least that is what I see is happening.

The idea is to make it a short article that can easily be translated into other languages. Then the info is there for all to see in one article and those wishing to know more can click the links. The common excuses such as:

  • "it was too hard to find"
  • "It was nowhere in my language"
  • "It was too hard to truly find out the truth just too confusing"
  • " I don't have time to wade throught thousands of articles"
  • "It is all just Russian propaganda"
What do you think?

I think that's a great idea.
 
There are three article on RT that comment on the situation with Ukraine:
In an interview RT made with Neil Clark, he comments on the timing of the scrambling of the British jets:
http://rt.com/op-edge/227843-russia-eu-sanctions-extension-ukraine/ said:
'Ukraine is pretext for US lobby to go on with sanctions against Russia'
January 30, 2015 13:52
[...]
RT: On Wednesday two Russian bombers were detected flying over the Channel which provoked an outcry in the British media as they supposedly 'disrupted UK aviation', though these bombers didn’t violate other countries' borders. What do you think about this situation?

[...]

NC: Well I think it’s very interesting, isn’t it, that this big news story happened when the EU was discussing the issue of sanctions with Russia. And I think it happened before, when we had…this debate about whether to extent or deepen sanctions, increase sanctions on Russia…And headlines that come up, you know “Russian bombers over the Channel”, but then we found out that it wasn’t exactly as it was first reported. So I think that in this anti-Russian climate we‘ve got to be careful when we look at the news headlines. There is an agenda going on, there is anti-Russian lobby in the West unfortunately which wants to keep this going and to keep more excuses and pretexts for the sanctions on Russia. So I think we have got to keep cool heads and you know look at bigger context of the stories and it seems quite interesting that every time we are getting these discussions about sanctions on Russia, that this sort of incidents seem to occur.

Then there is an article by Robert Bridge in which he comments on the admission of President Obama that they were involved with the change of power in Ukraine. He backs it up Obama's statement with references.
http://rt.com/op-edge/228379-obama-power-transition-ukraine/ said:
Obama openly admits 'brokering power transition' in Ukraine
February 01, 2015 18:32
In an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, Barack Obama acknowledged that the United States had "brokered a deal to transition power in Ukraine," thus admitting to a high level of democratic impropriety.

Before we consider Obama’s revealing remarks, and how the Ukrainian people sold their country for a song, let’s rewind to November 2013, when then-President Viktor Yanukovich had shocked western capitals - and, more importantly, western markets - by suspending plans for an association agreement with the European Union.
[..]
Robert Bridge then reviews the American involvement and mentions Nuland, Chevron etc. But I skip that because there was also an interview with Daniel McAdams.
http://rt.com/op-edge/228551-obama-interview-statement-ukraine/ said:
‘Obama seemed to tell more truth then he meant to tell’
February 02, 2015 13:40
[...]
RT: President Obama said in an interview with Fareed Zakaria that the US “had brokered a deal to transition power in Ukraine.” He is referring to talks in February between the former President Viktor Yanukovich, and the opposition, leading to the power handover. Washington was not even present at those talks, what does this admission say about the US role in the Ukrainian events?

Daniel McAdams: Well, I think, one thing that it says is the President can’t get a story straight. There are probably a bunch of people having a heart attack in the State Department when he said that, but essentially it’s true. What I wonder is if it’s true on a different level than we even know. Maybe the deal we brokered is something that the President and the US State Department was doing behind the scenes while the EU was engaged in negotiating with Yanukovich, in negotiating this sort of a transition of power away from the President. As we know that night was a very mysterious night. Everyone went to bed thinking that a deal was brokered to stave off the violence that followed. When we woke up in the morning power had been seized by a group that was close to the US. So maybe he was telling more truth then he meant to say in that statement.
[...]
RT: How does such a statement sit with US claims that the power change in Ukraine was purely the Ukrainians' choice and a democratic process?

DM: Well, we’ve been here in this garbage for more than a decade. The US claimed that the Orange Revolution was purely the action of Ukrainians who wanted a better life, and certainly there is an element of that in all color revolutions. There is an element of people who genuinely, A) want a better life and who doesn’t, and B) who buy into the West propaganda that if you just do x, y or z you will be living like the Swiss, you know, rich and happy. But the reality is the US is pumping billions of dollars into Ukraine and we all know the quote from Nuland that the US has spent US$5 billion promoting democracy in Ukraine. It’s not even up for discussion the US financed the Orange Revolution and Victoria Nuland and the State Department were heavily involved in this latest revolution in Ukraine.
[...]
 
The link below may or may not be worthwhile to look at.

_http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-02/a-russian-housewife-caught-in-putin-s-war

Looks like pure disinfo and Putin-bashing related to Ukraine (or maybe a mistake by Putin's intelligence, who knows?)

However just a question to you all if this is worthwhile debunking, or responding to in any way?
 
Reservists residents of Ukraine must obtain a certificate from recruiting office for departure not only abroad, but also outside the district. This was stated by Deputy Chief of Defence and General Staff of mobilization planning Vladimir Talalay, writes "Ukrainian Truth".

"At a time when in the country announced mobilization, reservists are not allowed to leave the place of residence without permission of relevant district military commissar. Therefore, such a permit is issued in the form of appropriate certificate" - said Talalay. Moreover, he noted that the same certificate for military service should have even when traveling within Ukraine.

http://russian.rt.com/article/72025
-----

Ukraine began issuing passports, on which it is impossible to go anywhere

According to Ukrainian edition of "European truth" today at biometric passports can not open a Schengen visa. "The problem is that each consulate should be at form of biometric passports. But Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Embassy is not given sufficient passport to embassy could compare with the sample and check whether it is a real passport " - newspaper said.

In Consulate General of Poland, located in Lviv, publication confirmed that for a long time did not accept the package of documents with biometrics. "Passports are very good, but there is a problem with the fact that they had to be first to ratify this biometric passport needed to show other countries that they recognize it, and to provide consular offices - said the Consul General of Poland in Lviv Yaroslav Drozd. - Because we can not put a visa just because you saw a sample of the passport in a newspaper. "

http://russian.rt.com/article/72004
 
junta fears of their own troops?

At the entrances to Kiev will put snipers

Ukrainian authorities intend to strengthen roadblocks at the entrance to Kiev. There will put defenses and placed snipers, said the head of Kiev central board of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Alexander Tereshchuk.

"There will be a few boards that will protect police officers, snipers will be there, because situation is extraordinary." - he added.

http://russian.rt.com/article/71963
-----

Militiamen shot down a missile "Tochka-U" near Lugansk

02.02.2015
Head of department of inquiry of Alchevsk military commandant Alexander Bely said that the station of missile defense in city of Bryanka on the night of February 2 managed to intercept and destroy released from the north-west direction a missile "Tochka-U". Presumably, purpose of missiles was to become one of residential areas of Lugansk.

"Parts of rocket fell inside the plant, about radius of scattered fragments of about a one kilometer. Now they are found to collect in one place, for submission to international organizations." - said Bely.


https://youtu.be/xlkYdG1gdaQ

http://russian.rt.com/article/72040
 
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