Coronavirus Pandemic: Apocalypse Now! Or exaggerated scare story?

[bjorb]

Putin is confident that China will defeat the epidemic. Ofcourse, it will be irresponsible for him to say otherwise. But as it stands, it seems that he is right. The Russian president also mentioned that Russia is supporting research on the fight against the coronavirus.

 

[loreta]

Zero Hedge is one of the alt-news sites going 'chicken little' over this. As such, they really deserve the moniker 'conspiracy theorist'!

In reality, the Chinese authorities are being, if anything, unusually forthcoming with data. Nobody ever hears about tens of thousands of 'excess deaths' (mostly in older people) in the West whenever there's a particularly bad flu season, until studies years later tabulate and report them.

Rather than 'haphazardly reacting to a crisis', I'm starting to wonder if the Chinese govt isn't up to something, in a strategic sense, for some combination of domestic and foreign policy reasons.

Do you mean it is a sort of strategic "chantage" to the world, like : watch out, you will feel the "chills" if you are teasing us?

And in the domestic area: control and more control by fear on the population?

 

[Niall]

Do you mean it is a sort of strategic "chantage" to the world, like : watch out, you will feel the "chills" if you are teasing us?

And in the domestic area: control and more control by fear on the population?

Yes, something like that. Maybe testing things in anticipation of greater outbreaks yet to come?

Then there's the following. The US economy could, ironically (or not), suffer more than the Chinese one if global supply chains significantly contract in the coming months:

Engdahl: Will coronavirus in China trigger worldwide depression? US economy already fragile

Comment: At this point, we don't think there's much to the 'coronavirus' outbreak. BUT China is sure behaving as if there is, tempting other countries to isolate themselves from her and bringing about the scenario outlined here... Historically...

www.sott.net

I dunno. Maybe that's going too far. Governments do plan long-term and operate strategically, but mostly they just respond to events as they happen.

 

[genero81]

I did a search on Coronavirus being overblown. It seems most articles written in that vein are a couple of weeks old including this one. For the first couple of weeks of this thread I didn't say anything because it sure looked like hysteria to me. Now, I'm not so sure. It seems odd that they would lock down millions of people over nothing. Unless they know it's lab created and therefore have something to hide? Or there's some unknown agenda as Niall suggest as a possibility.

Anyway, this is from an article written Feb. 1st

4. The public typically tends to overreact to health threats

Whenever there’s a new virus outbreak, people are egged on by the media echo chamber, which latches on to the story and repeats it ad nauseum, drilling fear and concern into the minds of investors and the general public alike. The same thing happens on social media, where rumors can spread unchecked.


This amplifies the perception of risk, but not the risk itself. At some point and perhaps soon, the media and Twitter will move on to the next story of the day, and coronavirus fears will ease.


The echo chamber impact was compounded by the following problem: Investor sentiment was extremely high going into this (both the Dow and the S&P set the latest in a string of records on Jan. 17), which made the market more vulnerable to “bad news” and negative headlines. Overconfident investors are convinced that nothing can go wrong. So when something negative crops up, they’re surprised and they feel betrayed, which escalates their selling.


Part of the exaggerated reaction to coronavirus is linked to the fact that it is new, and emanating from a foreign country. The fears about it seem irrational, if you consider the following contrasts. So far, coronavirus has claimed fewer than 100 lives. SARS, which also sparked widespread panic and investor selling, claimed hundreds of lives, and fewer than 10,000 cases were reported.


In contrast, other flu viruses in circulation in the U.S. last year took over 34,000 lives, and they are taking a similar toll this year. Yet unlike coronavirus and SARS, these flu viruses have had zero impact on the stock market. This suggests the current hysteria developing about coronavirus is irrational.

5 reasons coronavirus fears are overblown — and 14 stocks to buy now

Even the lockdown around Wuhan won’t have much of an impact on China’s economy.

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Niall]

The 'conspiracy' angle - that China is hiding the REAL HORRIBLE TRUTH! - is even crazier than its purveyors claim it is. For it to work, dozens of international bodies like the World Health Organization and governments of other countries would have to be in on it.

See this for example:

Indonesia criticises Harvard study questioning lack of cases in country

Indonesia has criticised a US study questioning why the country has not recorded any cases of the coronavirus, calling the findings an insult and insisting it was on high alert.

A study by Harvard University public health researchers this week said Indonesia should have reported cases because of its air links to China and the city of Wuhan.

Indonesian Minister of Health Terawan Agus Putranto called the Harvard report "insulting" late on Tuesday and said the country had proper testing equipment.

"They can be baffled but it's a fact" there are no cases, he told reporters in Jakarta.

"I am just telling you like it is. Hopefully there won't be any cases and we will keep praying, but we're being vigilant at the highest level."

Because they have decided COVID-19 is a 'global health emergency', they expect there to be many more cases in countries heavily-linked to China, but because there aren't, they assume the leadership of those other countries to be in cahoots with China to cover up The Big Truth!

 

[mrtn]

Maybe not related to the coronavirus, but they found a partially 'new' virus in Brazil called 'Yaravirus'.
German article: Neuentdeckter Virus besitzt bislang unbekannte Gene

Only 6 of 74 genes show similarities to already known virus genes, and those only to some extent
[...]
Although the virus has only recently been isolated for the first time, according to Abrahão it is quite possible that it has been around since ancient times.
[...]
The Yara virus cannot infect humans

 

[A Jay]

For the first couple of weeks of this thread I didn't say anything because it sure looked like hysteria to me. Now, I'm not so sure. It seems odd that they would lock down millions of people over nothing. Unless they know it's lab created and therefore have something to hide? Or there's some unknown agenda as Niall suggest as a possibility.

If it is a bioweapon, either from their own labs or someone else's, then it would make sense that they would try to contain it as much as they can. They're covering their backsides and I think that's prudent and though it might seem heavy handed it's better to be safe than dead.

I'm with Laura, I think the evidence thus far doesn't support this being much more than a tempest in a teapot. People are generally prone to hysteria, and all things considered I think this is just another case of people getting swept up into a fervor over something that is intended to distract and drain them of their energies.

 

[Niall]

Beware 'China Coronavirus' videos being shared by social media accounts like this one. It's from a Falun Gong activist based in NYC (which is where The Epoch Times operates out of, by the way). Vids are selected/slanted to reflect the sect's vehemently anti-China/pro-US views. Similar to MEK cult's 'news' about what's happening inside Iran. 'Her' videos - and the context she claims for them - are being pushed heavily by right-wing commentators on Twitter and elsewhere.

 

[mkrnhr]

The 'conspiracy' angle - that China is hiding the REAL HORRIBLE TRUTH! - is even crazier than its purveyors claim it is. For it to work, dozens of international bodies like the World Health Organization and governments of other countries would have to be in on it.

Also, one would think that the US and the EU would jump on the occasion to demonise China, and by association Russia for "endangering the survival of the human species by hiding the true numbers".

 

[SummerLite]

Rather than 'haphazardly reacting to a crisis', I'm starting to wonder if the Chinese govt isn't up to something, in a strategic sense, for some combination of domestic and foreign policy reasons.

I've started wondering about this myself. Could the latest virus be a cover story for something else going on? last night I was reading twitter comments and many are wondering if this is being used to round up dissidents. In clips shown where people are being forcefully dragged away, authorities aren't wearing gloves which shows no concern for being infected was one observation. The comments where in response to various film clips and found on The Summit.

China: Woman Falls to Her Death Trying to Escape Coronavirus Quarantine

Loses her grip while climbing down building.

summit.news

 

[SummerLite]

Beware 'China Coronavirus' videos being shared by social media accounts like this one. It's from a Falun Gong activist based in NYC (which is where The Epoch Times operates out of, by the way). Vids are selected/slanted to reflect the sect's vehemently anti-China/pro-US views. Similar to MEK cult's 'news' about what's happening inside Iran. 'Her' videos - and the context she claims for them - are being pushed heavily by right-wing commentators on Twitter and elsewhere.

Chuckle , looks like I just posted a link for this group. !

 

[Aeneas]

Satellite analysis of sulfur dioxide around wuhan and other quarantined areas would tend to agree.

I find this claim about satellite detecting a spike over Wuhan and then the jumping to the conclusion that it must be due to burning a lot of dead people, a little dubious.
A reason for the doubt is the outbreak of the African swine flu in August 2018 which devastated the Chinese pig population. From the numbers I gathered then China normally have about 440 million pigs. Up to half has been killed though it is hard to verify data. Some numbers have mentioned 150 million, which is only a third and perhaps more realistic. Pigs are on average the same weight as humans and would also have a similar sulphur dioxide content, I assume.

Do you see a problem of pinpointing a sulfur dioxide content and claiming it to be due to crematoriums going full blast (no pun intended)? Unless we are talking about burning in crematoriums of millions of people.
Individual pig farms can have tens of thousands of animals and if swine flu is detected all the animals are killed. In China where they are slowly getting the swine flu under control, they would have been culling and burning over a million pigs every week and often closer to 2 million pigs.

Such an article about sulfur dioxide detection by satellite makes more sense when the intention is about creating mass fear and hysteria.

In an average year, 9 million people die in China due to a variety of causes. This is equivalent to 173000 every single week or about 25000 every day.

 

[Niall]

Chuckle , looks like I just posted a link for this group. !

Yes, he's one of the right-wing commentators I have in mind. Appalling 'reporting' from him, both on the outbreak and the HK protests before that. He's a great 'polemicist' when it comes to commenting on the looney left, but that's low-hanging fruit. Politics and international events are beyond his ken.

 

[SOTTREADER]

I'm checking up on the progress of this virus from multiple sources everyday for about 3 - 4 weeks now.

Based on what I have seen, there is quite a lot of fear (which is natural) that some people have taken advantage off to either drive an agenda or profit from by driving traffic towards themselves. However, amongst all this so called 'noise' the actual events on the ground suggest a few things and most of it is not that everything is fine.

A few undisputed facts that I think any reasonable person would agree

• China has locked down multiple cities containing hundreds of millions of people. In practical terms, this means movement within these cities is prohibited, businesses are generally closed (unless they pass through multiple hoops to prove they won't turn to spreading grounds), activity within the cities is generally restricted and almost like under warlike conditions.
• Cities which are not under lockdown are mostly under self prescribed voluntary lockdown e.g. Beijing where most people choose not to go out.
• China has been lying about the numbers. This was not only revealed today by the sudden jump of 15k BUT also it's revealed by common sense. The virus is quite contagious, there are way to many people who have it than they can actually test for - a very big chunk who just have mild to no symptoms. Most research institutes are now using statistical modelling to get around this.

All in all, it means it's not being taken lightly and would in fact suggest things are being taken quite seriously. Russia has closed off it's land border with China and all travel to / from China is restricted by Russia itself!

These are not actions indicating business as usual.

As to China somehow having created this as part of a grand strategy, it's quite plausible but unlikely given they've literally had to sacrifice some of their own citizens, the image of the CCP has taken an absolute battering etc. It's akin to them playing some form of 4D chess on everyone which seems kind of unlikely.

The more likely situation is there's a virus on the lose, it's unexpected, everyone's reacting and hoping for the best. Failing that, life continues as before and we hope all will be okay - the resilience of life and civilization will win the day, ultimately.

For now it's just a matter of reactions in the hope of achieving some control. Other people could utilise the opportunity to drive an agenda but that's not to say something real isn't happening underneath all that - time will tell.

That's my take on the whole unfolding event.

 

[Aeneas]

Yes, it is interesting how everything China has done and is doing is framed in a negative light by some commentators on sites such as Zerohedge. If they put people in quarantine then they are authoritarian bullies.

Reuters adds that Huanggang, another city in Hubei, that it will tighten epidemic controls by "sealing residential complexes and only allowing essential vehicles on roads."

Patients quarantined in China's hospital jails are clearly hoping that their patriotic socialist principles of valuing the common good over individual liberty will see China through.

That last sentence is pure propaganda to have a dig at 'commie' China and is not based on any utterings from any real people. If such a flu was in the West, would we feel happy if China was saying that people in quarantine are hoping by their sacrifices to further the Western capitalistic genes of survival of the fittest? Or would we find that to be lacking in empathy and understanding and to be a total propaganda piece?


If they fire some inefficient government officials and administrators, then they are framed as scapegoating and protecting President Xi.

Beijing dismissed some of the top health officials in Wuhan and Hubei earlier this week, and last week it administered administrative punishments to hundreds of lower-level bureaucrats.

They have already been set up to take the fall for President Xi and his inner circle. Let the scapegoating begin.

If a 80+ year old woman in Japan dies due to the virus, then that is portrayed as alarmingly bad news, especially for the stock market.

After last night's 'undercounting' bombshell on the mainland, investors really needed to see some reassuring headlines about the coronavirus outbreak to push equity markets back into the green.

This is definitely not that.
Japan has confirmed its first coronavirus death, the third confirmed virus death outside mainland China, according to domestic broadcaster NHK. The other deaths occurred in the Philippines and Hong Kong.

The woman who died was in her 80s, and living in Kanagawa Prefecture, just outside Tokyo.

They do not seem to care about the old woman at all or ask questions as to her state of health before the virus. Elderly people especially above 80 years of age is always more at risk during the regular flu season. They care about the good news apparently and yet jump on anything which can be portrayed as bad news. Is the stock market really looking for a scapegoat for a managed crash of the overly blown stock market? and if China can be linked to it the better??? When Trump made the 'massive deal', many said that it was completely unfeasible. Will this crisis then get the blame for a deal which was unrealistic?

When the Chinese tries to remain positive, then that is spun as propaganda:

China's government is trying to spin the virus response as a test of China's strength. But the facts are impossible to ignore: This is a disaster of epic proportions.

"This is clearly a crisis of enormous proportions,” said University of Chicago political scientist Dali Yang "Failure … will be blamed on the system and especially on Xi, who’s staked out his personal leadership role."

It sounds more likely that it is the commentators who have chosen who they will scapegoat. Would you expect Trump, Macron, Merkel or Trudeau to 'spin' it differently if it happened on their home ground?

That the death toll has now exceeded the SARS virus, only shows that that virus was hugely overblown and thus not a measure of the severity or not of this virus:

But unfortunately for the party leadership, the outbreak didn't simply go away. Instead, it has evolved into a global plague and caused the deaths of nearly 1,500 people in just a few weeks, putting the SARS outbreak, which terrorized China and the international community in 2002 and 2003, to shame.

No it has not evolved into a global plague and 1500 in 4 weeks is not alarming. Even if it was 10000 in 4 weeks, given the size of China and the usual death toll by the annual flu virus.

For comparison:


This is over a 17 week period. Breaking it down means that between 705-1764 people died every week from the flu so far in the US season And the flu season is not over yet

Yet, there are no headlines about a global pandemic or bad news for the stock market or endless fear porn on MSM or (insert whatever tickles you). As a sidenote, all those deaths and hospitalizations etc in the US has happened despite widespread flu vaccinations (or because of the vaccinations). 173 million vaccines have been distributed and the US population is 320 million so more than 1 in 2 is given the vaccine. Hmmm....



This non-pandemic would have to have much higher numbers if it was to be the plague and not least outside of China. The book "A journal of the plague year" by Daniel Defoe gives a vivid description of what a real plaque looks like and what measures were taken to combat it. A page note which I made when I read the book says "united in suffering", which appears to be what happened back then in places severely affected by the plague. More from Defoe's book in another post.