Coronavirus Pandemic: Apocalypse Now! Or exaggerated scare story?

[Niall]

The financial press in New York and London is forecasting imminent regime change and the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party!

The following FT op-ed reckons the 'Wuhan flu' is China's Chernobyl:

Xi Jinping faces China’s Chernobyl moment

Throughout Chinese history, the reign of an imperial line was believed to follow a pattern known as the dynastic cycle. A strong, unifying leader establishes an empire that would rise, flourish but eventually decline, lose the “mandate of heaven” and be overthrown by the next dynasty.

Similar to Europe’s “divine right of kings”, the mandate of heaven differed in that it did not unconditionally entitle an emperor to rule the Celestial Empire. While on the dragon throne, the “son of heaven” had total power over his subjects. But he did not have to be of noble birth and he could lose his heavenly mandate for being unworthy, unjust or plain incompetent. The right of the populace to rebel was implicitly guaranteed if the heavens were seen to be displeased. Natural disasters, famine, plague, invasion and even armed rebellion were all regarded as signs the mandate of heaven had been withdrawn.

After the powerful peasant emperor Mao Zedong won a civil war in 1949, the Chinese Communist party attempted to dispel such beliefs as unscientific superstition. Since taking power in 2012, President Xi Jinping has encouraged a revival of some ancient traditions and beliefs.

But he has studiously avoided mention of the dynastic cycle and the mandate of heaven, especially as traditional omens have piled up over the past year.

A trade war with China’s biggest trade partner, open rebellion in the former British colony of Hong Kong and pork shortages caused by the devastating spread of African swine fever would all be traditionally regarded as ominous portents that the end of the dynasty is near. But each of these pales in comparison to the unfolding coronavirus pandemic that began late last year in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.

In a twist of history, Wuhan was where the first shots were fired in the 1911 revolution that toppled the last emperor of the Qing dynasty. Today it is the source of a terrifying plague that has already spread across China and around the world and has prompted the biggest ever attempted quarantine of a population — some 60m people.

The fact that China’s authoritarian system is particularly poor at dealing with public health emergencies that require timely, transparent and accurate information makes this far more significant than any other challenge Mr Xi has faced so far.

If the virus can be contained in the coming weeks, then it is still possible Mr Xi could emerge relatively unscathed after blaming provincial officials for the crisis. Having shut down swaths of the economy to contain the outbreak, he may even be able to argue for greater surveillance and control of Chinese society. But if the virus cannot be contained quickly, this could turn out to be China’s Chernobyl moment, when the lies and absurdities of autocracy are laid bare for all to see.

Official censors are already struggling to control the online outpouring of derision and disgust at initial attempts to cover up the disease. One early target for ridicule was the senior health official sent from Beijing to Wuhan to publicly reassure the masses the disease was “preventable and controllable”. He contracted the virus himself and has become a symbol of government incompetence and mendacity.

Outspoken academics and intellectuals have braved imprisonment to lambast the Communist party’s failure of performance legitimacy. Some have explicitly referred to the mandate of heaven and pointed to numerous examples of late-stage dynastic decay. But the defining moment of this crisis — the moment when it went from being a serious challenge to a potentially existential problem for the party — was the death last week of a 33-year-old Wuhan ophthalmologist called Li Wenliang.

In the early days of the crisis, Li had raised the alarm in online chat groups with his medical school classmates after witnessing numerous cases of a strange new pneumonia that did not respond to normal treatment. For that he was reprimanded by his hospital and summoned in the middle of the night by the police, who forced him and at least seven other doctors to sign confessions and pledges to cease spreading “rumours”.

When Li contracted the disease himself, ordinary Chinese were outraged. Even the Supreme People’s Court in Beijing reprimanded the police and praised the doctors who first raised the alarm. But when Li died last week the response was volcanic.

The fact the news was released first by reporters from state media hints at cracks appearing in the fearsome party-controlled propaganda apparatus. Censors were unable to keep up with the outpouring of online demands such as “I want freedom of speech”.

Li’s story is so powerful in part because it fits neatly into another ancient archetype in Chinese history. The incorruptible Confucian scholar who speaks truth to the emperor but is persecuted, and ultimately dies for his honesty, holds a special place in China’s scholarly tradition. Li fits the role perfectly.

The path the virus takes next could determine whether Li is eventually compared to a more contemporary historic figure — the young Tunisian fruit-seller who immolated himself in protest at the injustice of the regime, sparking the Arab Spring and the downfall of several dynasties across the Middle East.

 

[Niall]

Ps, over the last few years sott have been reporting on top level stuff, recent case in point was the assassination of the Iranian general. I don't think I have seen a sott focus article on this virus given it's position in current world events?

It doesn't strike us as much of a big deal, not yet anyway. As I said earlier in this thread, when a couple hundred thousand have died from it in China, then we'll have something proportionate to a 'high' seasonal flu death toll.

The hysterics about it are interesting though, as is the accompanying sinophobia. Therein lies the really scary virus... of the mind.

Then there's the cosmic angle; the astrobiologist Wickramasinghe reckons that's in play here:

Coronavirus Came From Meteor Which Hit China Last Year, Claims Scientist

Coronavirus was carried into the Earth's atmosphere on a fragment of comet which spewed out "hundreds of trillions" of viral particles. Medics fear the disease, which can be spread before victims show any symptoms, could spark a global pandemic....

www.sott.net

I'm not betting on that though. We still have to account for the coincidence of Wuhan being home to China's first BSL-4, WHO-approved biolab.

 

[loreta]

The hysterics about it are interesting though, as is the accompanying sinophobia. Therein lies the really scary virus... of the mind.



I'm not betting on that though. We still have to account for the coincidence of Wuhan being home to China's first BSL-4, WHO-approved biolab.

Yes. I am sad for all the Chinese that have restaurants and stores and that because of this hysteria they will loose everything.

Concerning this bio-lab why in the name of God they create a lab so near a populated city? China is a big country, why no in the mountains, far away of habitations and cities?

 

[Ellipse]

It doesn't strike us as much of a big deal, not yet anyway. As I said earlier in this thread, when a couple hundred thousand have died from it in China, then we'll have something proportionate to a 'high' seasonal flu death toll.

Sorry but it's not a valid argument for me. We don't know what would be the number of deaths without the lockdown.

 

[mkrnhr]

The hypothetic lockdown is irrelevant. Even if the mortality rate in China was 99.99%, that does not translate to other regions of the world with different climates, different genetics, different lifestyles an so forth. People are fixated on the number coming out of China and like to speculate on the "real numbers" (what are the spying agencies of the the opposing nations wating for). If they don't trust them, there are other infection cases in other countries that cannot be qualified as being under the Chinese government "lockdown". Those numbers are not scary so nobody pays attention.

In any case, even if it were a killer plague, which so far it is not, the last thing to do is to freak out. Being prepared and taking rational decision at the right moment are the best way to optimise the chances of survival. Funnily enough, freaking out is exactly what the MSM are pushing for.

 

[Laura]

Sorry but it's not a valid argument for me. We don't know what would be the number of deaths without the lockdown.

Sorry, but the whole thing looks to me like a manufactured panic. The lockdown would make sense if China knew that it was a bioweapon, either made by themselves, or made by the West and let loose there, and they want to contain it as completely as possible.

So far, there is just NO evidence of the exaggerated numbers being claimed by some conspiracy theorists and it really doesn't look like much more than a tempest in a teapot.

 

[PopHistorian]

 

[United Gnosis]

I do not know whether some of those vids were verified. A chinese interviewer masquerading as a party supervisor calling into a wuhan crematory social engineered information out - that nurse was overworked, asked for 40-50 more staff and more cars, stating that by removing seats in vans designed to hold 1 or 2 bodies, they could fit 8 now, but still barely managed to pickup the dead from the hospital to cremate. When challenged that she was slacking, she replied that she burned 100 bodies in the day but only 8 were marked confirmed cases, 40 suspected and 50 deaths at home. That fits with the massaged data as well.
She stated her main 'competitor', providing more throughput using all furnaces 24/7 rather than his usual 4 hours * 5 days. That interview was early february, and paints a picture that fits with first reports of mass cremation of bodies around mid-january, further confirmed as official policy 10 days later. We know we can't trust Chinese numbers, and the most plausible explanation is that they are misrepresenting deaths. Satellite analysis of sulfur dioxide around wuhan and other quarantined areas would tend to agree. Yes, it's possible that the chinese were burning 500-1000 bodies/day last week and even maybe earlier.
I don't know, but I'm not going to settle on an opinion until we have more data.

 

[PopHistorian]

See previous two posts, and comments re: crematoria. I have contacts in China and stories, but not near enough to epicenter to constitute any real evidence of much. Just don't know.

 

[United Gnosis]

I can't find the full recording of that funeral worker interview, though I've seen it. It was an Epoch Times reporter, they also did a write-up:

Amid Virus Outbreak, Funeral Home Officials in Wuhan Reveal Sharp Increase in Cremations

www.theepochtimes.com

Now this video from today seems to confirm the funeral home worker stating that they had to remove the seats in the van to stack the bodies like logs...

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=481182645899421

 

[Candice]

See previous two posts, and comments re: crematoria. I have contacts in China and stories, but not near enough to epicenter to constitute any real evidence of much. Just don't know.

View attachment 33793

I have seen several people on twitter debunking this story, as well as the Chinese authorities.

China debunks 'distorted' sulfur dioxide reading at epidemic epicentre | The Express Tribune

Data on a foreign weather website allegedly pointed to heightened levels of sulfur dioxide around Wuhan

tribune.com.pk

 

[hlat]

In a day, almost a 50% increase in official infections.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

China Reports Huge Jump In New Coronavirus Infections And Deaths; Oil, Stocks Tumble
by Tyler Durden
Wed, 02/12/2020 - 19:50

All those clueless hacks who warned us for years not to trust China's economic numbers, yet were so gullible to believe any coronavirus pandemic "data" released by Beijing are going to look pretty stupid right about now.

Hubei just released its latest round of coronavirus outbreak figures, and in a clear confirmation of the 'conspiracy theory' that China had altered the way it was reporting Covid-19 deaths and cases - clearly in order to suggest that things were improving and you should go back to work, while ideally buying stocks, the province at the epicenter of the Coronavirus pandemic just came clean and the numbers are stunning.

The number of cases exploded by 14,840, resulting in a total of 48,206 cases, including 13,332 clinically diagnose cases:

And just like that we are back on the quadratic growth path in new cases, as one would expect from an exponentially spreading viral pandemic.

This also means that JPM, which earlier today was delighted by how far the infected case load is from its "pessimistic" forecast...

... will have to dramatically change its narrative.

So what happened?

Recall that on Monday we published "This Is How China Is Rigging The Number Of Coronavirus Infections" (just two days after pointing out that "There Is Something Very Strange In The Latest Chinese Official Coronavirus Numbers") in which we explained that China on Feb 7 moved the goalposts by changing the definition of the term "infection" and that "going forward patients who tested positive for the virus but have no symptoms will no longer be regarded as confirmed."

Well, it appears that a few days later, China changed its mind and has reverted to the original definition of "infection" while also including "clinical diagonisis" to determine if a new infection had take place. This is how Hubei explained the change:.

With the deepening of understanding of new coronavirus pneumonia and the accumulation of experience in diagnosis and treatment, in view of the characteristics of the epidemic in Hubei Province, the General Office of the National Health and Health Commission and the Office of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine issued the "Diagnosis and Treatment Plan for New Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia (Trial (Version) "adds" clinical diagnosis "to the case diagnosis classification in Hubei Province, so that patients can receive standardized treatment according to confirmed cases as early as possible to further improve the success rate of treatment.

According to the plan, Hubei Province has recently conducted investigations on suspected cases and revised the diagnosis results, and newly diagnosed patients were diagnosed according to the new diagnosis classification. In order to be consistent with the classification of case diagnosis issued by other provinces across the country, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases for publication.

Of course, the real reason for the original change as noted above was to give the impression that China was succeeding in containing the infection, which helped boost stocks - both in China and globally - sharply higher, and in the case of the S&P, to new all time highs.

As for the catastrophic revision, it may also explain why on Tuesday morning, China's CCTV reported that Hubei province removed its two top health officials, namely health commission head Liu Yingzi and party chief Zhang Jin from their posts. Almost as if, in retrospect, they were caught hiding something...

And while China can now claim it wants to be more transparent (which is odd for a nation that is still refusing to admit the US CDC on the ground) and wants a more comprehensive definition of "infection" because it is suddenly so concerned about all those people it ordered to go back to work on Monday (with new cases now emerging in people's workplaces forcing an immediate quarantine of all workers and co-workers), it somehow also changed the definition of "death", because at the same time as the explosion in new cases, which clearly indicates that the pandemic is now clearly out of control, the number of reported deaths in Hubei alone spiked by 242 to 1,310 (we are still waiting for the official number of deaths across all of China which will likely add quite a few more cases to the Hubei total).

What is absolutely terrifying about the chart above is that, of the 242 new deaths, more than double the previous day's total, is that according to the Hubei government, 135 are from the new "clinically diagnosed" category. This means that for weeks China was likely assigning coronavirus deaths to pneumonia (as we warned it was doing on Jan 25 in "This Is How China Is Hiding The True Number Of Coronavirus Deaths"), which also means that the real number of Coronavirus deaths is likely in the thousands.

For those curious what the now completely discredited fake coronavirus data, reported by China until today with the sole intent of boosting risk assets was, here is the full breakdown. Naturally none of these numbers matter anymore following today's sudden burst of Chinese truthiness.

In kneejerk reaction to the shocking surge in both new cases and deaths, Dow futures immediately plunged...

As did oil...

As is the yuan...

But at least gold is sharply higher:

Who could have seen that coming? The stock market wanted so badly to believe the Chinese data... bonds and commodities knew better. The clearest indication that all Chinese data was fake, however, came from Global Times Editor on Chief who earlier today tweeted that "New infection cases outside of Hubei have dropped for 8 consecutive days. It is now time for the US and other countries to actively consider resuming flights to China."

New infection cases outside of Hubei have dropped for 8 consecutive days. In Beijing with more than 21 million population, the daily new case of infection is around 10 recently. It is now time for the US and other countries to actively consider resuming flights to China.
— Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) February 12, 2020

Ok you pathological liar.

Finally, we now look forward to what explanation China's global tourism impressario, WHO Director Tedros Adhanom best known as the "WHO Candidate Accused of Covering Up Epidemics", will come up with now after spending the past two weeks praising China's response and claiming there is no risk of a global pandemic, while criticizing the US for daring to halt flights to China.

 

[thorbiorn]

Then there's the cosmic angle; the astrobiologist Wickramasinghe reckons that's in play here:

Coronavirus Came From Meteor Which Hit China Last Year, Claims Scientist

Coronavirus was carried into the Earth's atmosphere on a fragment of comet which spewed out "hundreds of trillions" of viral particles. Medics fear the disease, which can be spread before victims show any symptoms, could spark a global pandemic....

www.sott.net

I'm not betting on that though. We still have to account for the coincidence of Wuhan being home to China's first BSL-4, WHO-approved biolab.

That is an interesting question. In this post I will try work to evaluate the likelihood of the proposal of an origen from space being true.

In a post from yesterday and quoting an article from
https://www.accuweather.com/en/heal...will-burn-itself-out-in-about-6-months/679415 there was

"Three things the virus does not like: 1. Sunlight, 2. Temperature, and 3. Humidity," Nicholls said in response to a question about when he thinks confirmed cases will peak, the transcript showed.

"Sunlight will cut the virus' ability to grow in half so the half-life will be 2.5 minutes and in the dark it's about 13 to 20 [minutes]," Nicholls said. "Sunlight is really good at killing viruses."

For that reason, he also added that he doesn't expect areas such as Australia, Africa and the Southern hemisphere to see high rates of infection because they are in the middle of summer.

[..]
"The virus can remain intact at 4 degrees (39 degrees Fahrenheit) or 10 degrees (50 F) for a longer period of time," Nicholls said, referring to Celsius measurements, according to the transcript. "But at 30 degrees (86 degrees F) then you get inactivation. And high humidity -- the virus doesn't like it either," he added, the transcript of the call showed.

If what is said in the article is mostly true, then one should think the virus would have to obey the above conditions for survival if it came from space. One condition easy to fulfill would be humidity, the humidity in space is low, but to avoid strong doses of ultraviolet light, the virus would have to be embedded in particles of a size that would protects it from harmful types of radiation, IF these would pose a threat to its survival. Finally, the virus would have to be kept at a low temperature. Here is an illustration of the challenges, which shows both the radiation and the temperatures at different altitudes, leaving out any possible electric stresses on the organisms due to charge differences between the object and the surrounding space:

However, I dont know if the temperature in a low pressure situation would have the the same effect, as on earth where we live in a sea of air, probably not as the satellites move through this area without problems. This is at least one weak point in the above considerations. Also if an object moved quickly and deposited fragments that had not had time to be heated up, then there would also be a chance of survival.

Next, I tried to find the place where the mentioned meteorite fell. It was said in:

Brilliant midnight meteor fireball lights up sky over northeast China

It turned night into day. What appears to be a dazzling meteor lit up the sky over northeast China on Friday (Oct. 11), appearing as a brilliant fireball in surveillance videos of the event. The meteor occurred at about 12:16 a.m. Beijing Time,...

www.sott.net

The meteor occurred at about 12:16 a.m. Beijing Time, turning night into day and casting dark shadows as it streaked through the sky, according to the state-run CCTV. Videos of the fireball were captured by surveillance cameras in the city of Songyuan in the province of Jilin, as well as by many residents across northeast China, CCTV reported.

Above one finds Jilin to the northeast of Beijing and Wuhan is located in the Hubei province to the southwest of Beijing. Anyone can look up and find out how aerosols left at altitude distribute themselves, think Chelyabinsk, Fukushima, Chernobyl, and consider if Wuhan would be the most likely final destination, if a virus filled meteorite fell over the province of Jinlin and the viruses survived.

As I wrote the these paragraphs, I did not consult the scientific literature with the theories about space viruses, which I perhaps should have done, because the question of how viruses could survive both space and the passage through the atmosphere of the Earth is certainly very interesting and one that needs much more study.

Regarding the BSL-4 Lab, I believe the coronavirus studying Chinese microbiologists also have been going around to all their caves in search of unknown coronaviruses and they found them. Curiosity is a great thing, I'm a fan, but sometimes one may find more than one wished for. It happens.

 

[SOTTREADER]

In a day, almost a 50% increase in official infections.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Just to reconfirm, the official numbers now stand at just over 60000 confirmed cases.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 135,932,798 Cases and 2,938,372 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

This is because Hubei province has changed how it accounts for the confirmations.

A few comments

- This vindicates those who doubted the official numbers coming out of China.

- It shows lack of transparency in how cases are counted.

- It raises further questions on the official numbers for all provinces. What do they include / exclude?

In all honesty, it doesn't do the credibility of the CCP any good and it'll only add fire to people's worries and fears.

 

[Niall]

Zero Hedge is one of the alt-news sites going 'chicken little' over this. As such, they really deserve the moniker 'conspiracy theorist'!

In reality, the Chinese authorities are being, if anything, unusually forthcoming with data. Nobody ever hears about tens of thousands of 'excess deaths' (mostly in older people) in the West whenever there's a particularly bad flu season, until studies years later tabulate and report them.

Granted, this case in Wuhan could be exceptional, but if so, then the Chinese govt's response to contain it has so far been successful. You can't have your cake and eat it! Either it's a nothing-burger OR it's potentially a global pandemic but China is doing a great job preventing it from becoming one.

Rather than 'haphazardly reacting to a crisis', I'm starting to wonder if the Chinese govt isn't up to something, in a strategic sense, for some combination of domestic and foreign policy reasons.