Spike Protein, a Dose Dependent Killer?
Kamal Mokeddem
1 day ago·2 min read
The VAERS database has reports of 722,534 adverse reactions to COVID vaccines through 9/24/2021. What could be more fun to do on a Saturday night than bust out an R terminal and see what we can test against this data?
The first thing I wanted to look into was the theory that Myocarditis cases could be explained by an errant vaccination where the needle hits a blood vessel. This should be an independent event occuring with equal likelihood in dose 1 or dose 2 of a series. This is easily disproven as happening far more often in dose 2 of either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines. That leads to a concern that there may be a dose dependent relationship between something in the vaccines and adverse reactions.
The obvious candidate in the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is the dose of mRNA. From “mRNA-lipid nanoparticle COVID-19 vaccines: Structure and stability”
mRNA-lipid nanoparticle COVID-19 vaccines: Structure and stability we determine that each Pfizer shot contains 30 micrograms of mRNA, each Moderna shot contains 100 micrograms. Then from VAERS jan 1, 2021-sept 13, 2021 we determine the number of reports of fatalities within 30 days for Pfizer dose 1 (379), Pfizer dose 2 (774), Moderna dose 1 (627), Moderna dose 2 (774). We then need to normalize by the number of people vaccinated for each vaccine (113m Pfizer, 75.74m Moderna). If we divide the fatalities reported in VAERS by the total number of doses of each vaccine we obtain a relative fatality rate that is comparable across vaccines.
We might then hypothesize that there is a relationship between cumulative dose of spike protein from mRNA (x) and fatality rate per million doses over 30 days (y).
x = 30μg (Pfizer dose 1), 60μg (Pfizer dose 1+2), 100μg (Moderna dose 1), 200μg (Moderna dose 1+2)
y (fatalities/1m doses)= 394/113, 710/113, 545/75.74, 767/75.74
When plotted we end up with this graph:
That looks logarithmic. Let’s plot it again as the log of the dose with the best fit line in red.
That looks like a decent model. We get a .98 R² with a p-value of 0.8%. Very unlikely we got this relationship by chance. It would be interesting to know if there is a physical basis for this empirical relationship. Also it would be interesting to know how to normalize the spike proteins produced by adenovirus vector vaccines (J&J) with the mRNA vaccines to add more data points.