Subramanian, S.V., Kumar, A. (2021) "Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States". Eur J Epidemiol . Link
"In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people."
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It seems to me that they just don't want to explicitly state that the association they were looking for (more % of v@xxed population -> less cases per 1M people) is not only lacking, but is in fact the opposite!
In the 1st paragraph (Findings):
At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated.
The association (or trend) is in fact there, and it is not just a marginally positive association, roughly (using eyes only) analysis shows that:
(1500-1000) cases / (65-25) % = 12.5 increase in cases per 1M over every 1% increase in v@xxed population!!
From Table S1 of the article (numbers), regarding Island and Portugal vs. Vietnam and South Africa (example mentioned in quote above):
Country Name | Cases in the Last 7 Days | People Fully Vaccinated | People Fully Vaccinated % of Population | Population | Cases Per 1 Million People in the Last 7 Days |
Iceland | 413 | 263778 | 76.82 | 343360 | 1202.819199 |
Portugal | 11071 | 7627146 | 75.01 | 10167923 | 1088.816271 |
South Africa | 52230 | 6145216 | 10.23 | 60041996 | 869.8911342 |
Vietnam | 80592 | 2726563 | 2.78 | 98168829 | 820.9530543 |