Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but here are the official CDC figures on Americans killed by seasonal flu in the last two years:
Coronavirus Pandemic: Apocalypse Now! Or exaggerated scare story?
- Thread starter wanderingthomas
- Start date
Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but here are the official CDC figures on Americans killed by seasonal flu in the last two years:
Wow, so the French are using the corona virus scare to push through the reform. Luckily the French pensions didn't suffer during the recent rout on the stock market, which they otherwise would have been, as the pension reforms are all about privatising the pensions and invest in the stockmarket
In Switzerland, all events with over 1000 people have been cancelled. That includes the Geneva au;to salon, the Basel Camaval , Baselworld (a massive watch and jewellery conference) and other big events.
I work from Zurich main railway station, a train station where every day 1 million passes through! On top of it I go to Paris by air-conditioned trains every week with tourists from South Korea, China, Japan and all over (many directly from Zurich airport), and as a train manager I get to say hello to just about everybody onboard and physically handle their tickets. Colleagues go to Italy, Germany and Austria. So if someone is exposed to the risk of the killer virus (drum beat), I count myself in that category. As a matter of fact, I might already have had it, two weeks ago, but not knowing better I treated it as a normal flu, took extra vit C, elderberry juice and other supplements and after 5 days was back to normal.
The worst part of the job at the moment are passengers getting hysterical if some Asian looking person with a mask happens to cough, and demanding to be given another seat. There are not unlimited coaches on a train and no separate compartments like in the old trains. Each job has its moments and stresses and mine is no different.
So, we have to wait to see if this "corona virus" continues into summer and if it reaches anything like the 60,000+ dead in the USA alone from a "normal flu" season. Only THEN can we say that it is on par with a NORMAL INFLUENZA virus!
There's a great article on Sott.net that points out that the current scientific thinking about what a virus actually is and does is falling apart. The author, Sayer Ji, points out that viruses and the virion particles that viruses use as transmitters of nucleic acid (RNA) are remarkably similar the exosomes that are used by cells in all living organisms to do the same thing. Citing the research, he suggests a more accurate description of viruses:
Why The Only Thing Influenza May Kill is Germ Theory (Corona Virus-Related) -- Sott.net
Groundbreaking research indicates that nearly everything we once believed about the purportedly deadly properties of flu virus may be based on institutionalized superstition and myth. Germ theory is an immensely powerful force on this planet,...
www.sott.net
I think we need to bear in mind that the numbers given for flu deaths (and smoking deaths too) are all estimates. Nobody's death certificate says death from flu. People die from conditions brought on by the flu, and any and all of these conditions have multiple risk factors. So we end up with numbers based on a formula somebody thinks might be close to the truth. And of course these calculations can be skewed by the politics and the intent of the organisation issuing them. Which all boils down to the fact that we really have absolutely no idea of actual deaths attributed to a particular flu or virus.
Some do apparently.
Yes, although we can assume some consistency of methodology in the US CDC's calculations for influenza from year to year.
The CDC explains its current model here, which it has apparently used since 2010:
How CDC Estimates the Burden of Seasonal Influenza in the U.S. | CDC
Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC
www.cdc.gov
Some do apparently.
Yes, although we can assume some consistency of methodology in the US CDC's calculations for influenza from year to year.
The CDC explains its current model here, which it has apparently used since 2010:
How CDC Estimates the Burden of Seasonal Influenza in the U.S. | CDC
Links to key resources on the burden of influenza - CDC
Sounds a bit like anyone that dies of some kind of comorbidity during flu season, even without testing, is counted as killed by flu. Because, what else could it be? Or am I being too critical here?
And not every flu-like illness is flu, but they are getting their estimates from self-reporting.
Egad.
Testing for specific pathogens is a complicated process. To be really sure, you need to pretty much isolate and then observe a viral particle under a powerful microscope, or grow a quantity of it, crystalize it and then use a spectrometer. There are a few other ways, but they are equally time and technology intensive. I found this page which goes through the list of methods and how they work:
virology-microbiology-b.blogspot.com
The fastest way is also less certain, as it bases its method on observing secondary characteristics of an infection and then using deduction. The most promising and it would appear, the most commonly used, looks like this one:
If the medical authorities test for Corona the same way they test for AIDS in Africa, then it's basically just a ridiculously general checklist of questions with values applied to each answer; if you add up enough points, Bang! You're officially diagnosed with AIDS and are potential customer for pharma products. -The effect being that in a region stricken with hundreds of different diseases, chances are you'll be falsely diagnosed just by coughing.
I can easily see that same level of rigor being applied globally to this new bug.
The end result being that the authorities will be able to keep the Corona Virus in the headlines for as long as they deem useful, regardless of the state of the actual virus.
Tim Pool, (who has jumped whole-heartedly on board the hysteria train), reported on a story where a Japanese woman had recovered from the Corona Virus, but then re-acquired it a second time. That sounds like shoddy identification to me.
I don't see how the CDC is going to be able to reliably back up the claim that they will be able to do 10,000 tests per day.
Sorry. That sounds like a scattershot method when the only true way to make a positive identification requires days of work to isolate a sample and actually look at the thing under an electron microscope, or through using a similarly complicated and time-intensive technology.
Testing for specific pathogens is a complicated process. To be really sure, you need to pretty much isolate and then observe a viral particle under a powerful microscope, or grow a quantity of it, crystalize it and then use a spectrometer. There are a few other ways, but they are equally time and technology intensive. I found this page which goes through the list of methods and how they work:
Methods of Study of Viruses
Methods of Study of Viruses Study of Viruses The study of viruses is known as virology. Viruses can be studied in two ways. The first way...
virology-microbiology-b.blogspot.com
The fastest way is also less certain, as it bases its method on observing secondary characteristics of an infection and then using deduction. The most promising and it would appear, the most commonly used, looks like this one:
Haemagglutination Assay (HA)
A quantitative of viruses by haemagglutination is known as haemagglutination assay (HA). Haemagglutination is a particular form a agglutination which involves the participation of red blood cells (RBC).
A type of lattice will be formed by red blood cells when viral families with surface or enveloped proteins stick to humans’ or animals’ red blood cells and bind to its N-acetylneuraminic acid.
This method is relatively fast and easy and large amounts of samples use such methods. This method is carried out in the presence of antibody. The type of virus will require different conditions. For example, at certain pH values, some viruses bind RBCs while others bind RBCs at certain ionic strengths.
Limitations
Optimal and reliable results require controlling several variables, such as incubation times, red blood cell concentration, and type of red blood cell.[12] Non-specific factors in the sample can lead to interference and incorrect titer values. For example, molecules in the sample other than virus-specific antibodies can inhibit agglutination between virus and RBC's, as well as potentially blocking antibody from binding to virus. Receptor-destroying enzymes (RDE) are commonly used to treat samples prior to analysis to prevent non-specific inhibition.[13] Analysis of the HA or HI results relies on a qualified individual to read the plate and determine the titer values. The manual interpretation method introduces more opportunities for discrepancies in the assay because results can be subjective and the agreement between human readers is inconsistent.[14] Also, there is no digital record of the plate or titer determinations so the initial interpretation is tedious and commonly done in replicates. The range of potential variables and differences between expert readers can make comparing inter-laboratory results difficult.[15]
If the medical authorities test for Corona the same way they test for AIDS in Africa, then it's basically just a ridiculously general checklist of questions with values applied to each answer; if you add up enough points, Bang! You're officially diagnosed with AIDS and are potential customer for pharma products. -The effect being that in a region stricken with hundreds of different diseases, chances are you'll be falsely diagnosed just by coughing.
I can easily see that same level of rigor being applied globally to this new bug.
The end result being that the authorities will be able to keep the Corona Virus in the headlines for as long as they deem useful, regardless of the state of the actual virus.
Tim Pool, (who has jumped whole-heartedly on board the hysteria train), reported on a story where a Japanese woman had recovered from the Corona Virus, but then re-acquired it a second time. That sounds like shoddy identification to me.
I don't see how the CDC is going to be able to reliably back up the claim that they will be able to do 10,000 tests per day.
Sorry. That sounds like a scattershot method when the only true way to make a positive identification requires days of work to isolate a sample and actually look at the thing under an electron microscope, or through using a similarly complicated and time-intensive technology.
That's pretty much how I think things will play out at this point. We'll see though. Once it runs its course, hopefully we'll be able to get some more reliable stats - but if not, then at least the absolute total number of deaths will tell us something. But I still think it's important to also consider some other issues at play besides total mortality, like transmissibility and the mortality rate, especially while things are still developing.
When it comes to the regular flu, we don't quarantine or lock down cities. We basically let it run rampant every year, millions of people get it, and a very small percentage die. If we can trust the CDC's statistics enough to get a rough picture, then in the the worst flu year in the last decade (2017-2018), 45 million people got it in the U.S. That's 13-14% of the population. (Average number who get it every year is 3-11%.) 1.8% of those people had to be hospitalized. And 7.5% of those hospitalized died. Overall, 0.14% of those who got the flu died. And that's just the symptomatic cases. Some estimate that the number of people who carry and spread the flu virus without showing any symptoms whatsoever is up to 3x higher than the number of people who end up showing any symptoms, but it could be closer to a 50-50 split. Flu has an R0 of anywhere from 1.5-3 (that's around what the Spanish flu was, too), meaning on average that's how many people each person with the flu infects. (But that doesn't take into account the presence or absence of 'super spreaders', which can compound the problem.)
A bit on R0:
With any luck, the stats for coronavirus will turn out to be wrong, and not as serious as they look right now. Like Joe mentioned previously, it could be that there are a lot of asymptomatic cases, or mild cases that haven't been properly recorded. But with the stats that are available, the R0 is either similar, or perhaps greater than flu. From the article Laura posted:
So it's at least potentially equally or more transmissible than flu. Simply left to its own devices, it could conceivably infect a lot of people, and if the mortality rate really is 15x higher than the flu, then it can also kill a lot of people. I think that at least partially explains China's and other governments' response, with quarantines and lockdowns. If that's what the current numbers suggest - however flawed they may be in reality - it's understandable. Officials just haven't yet been able to know with any certainty, so they opt on the side of caution. Could it be more transmissible than the flu if left unchecked? How much more? And the extra resources spent on hospitalizations and treatments means less resources for uninfected people with OTHER conditions, meaning that lots of those people will die too, even if they never got the virus. At least, that's some of the thinking I think is probably behind some of the official responses we're seeing.
Another bit from the article Laura quoted:
That 13.8% figure is from the 'known cases' stats, so it doesn't change the current death rate estimate.
How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?
Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu.
www.livescience.com
It's hard to estimate an accurate death rate during an epidemic for numerous reasons. We're still in a position of not knowing whether the death rate is lower (i.e., there are lots of unreported cases, which means the deaths are a smaller fraction of the whole), or higher, as some of the other methods of calculating at that link might suggest. But one thing we can look at is the hospitalizations. Even if we can't know how many people actually have the virus, we can get a more reasonable idea of how many have to go to the hospital, and how many of those die.
To compare to the flu again: 810,000 people hospitalized, 61,000 died. That's a 7.5% death rate for cases severe enough to require hospitalization. In the study above, a total of 8255 cases were considered serious or severe, and 1023 died. That's a 12.4% death rate for serious cases requiring hospitalization. So, not THAT different from the flu, but still 1.65x higher. (However, if the total number of cases is close to accurate, then the percentage of people who need to be hospitalized could be much higher than flu too: 18.5% compared to 1.8%.)
Again, that's not to say those figures will end up being accurate - just that as they are, I can understand looking at them and taking precautions to do something about it on the chance that they're accurate, or on the chance that the situation is worse than they suggest. For example, from the site quoted above on death rates:
So it might end up being not that much worse than the flu, or several times worse. And if fewer people end up dying than have died this year from the flu, at least part of that could be a result of the containment efforts in China and elsewhere. It will be interesting to see what ends up being the case!
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WIN 52
The Living Force
I have noticed that the local traffic is about half of what it normally is. The grocery stores are also not very busy, like normal. Either people are afraid or at home sick, like with the virus that has been attacking my immune system for the past 10-12 days now. So far my immune system seems to be holding it off. I picked up some Elderberry extract today. Now it looks like Pomegranate is next, along with Iodine and Serropeptase. Which may ease my BP somewhat as well.
angelburst29
The Living Force
You promote a character like this to spread fear:
"Fatal mistake" for countries to assume they won't get coronavirus -WHO chief
It would be a "fatal mistake" for any country to assume it will not be hit by the new coronavirus, and rich countries that might have thought they were safer should expect surprises, the head of the World Health Organization said on Thursday.
Coronavirus risk at very high global level, says WHO's Tedros
The risk of spread and impact of the coronavirus is now very high at a "global level", World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva on Friday.
WHO: global community not ready to take same measures as China to contain coronavirus
The World Health Organization (WHO) said in a report issued on Friday that much of the global community is not yet ready to implement the types of measures that have contained the fast-moving coronavirus outbreak in China.
Coronavirus now poses 'very high' risk at global level: WHO
The risk of a global spread and impact of the coronavirus is now "very high", the highest level of alarm, but containment is still possible, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday.
Explainer: Coronavirus reappears in discharged patients, raising questions in containment fight
A growing number of discharged coronavirus patients in China and elsewhere are testing positive after recovering, sometimes weeks after being allowed to leave the hospital, which could make the epidemic harder to eradicate.
Recovered coronavirus patients found not to be infectious - official
Recovered coronavirus patients who were discharged from hospitalization but later tested positive again have been found not to be infectious, an official at China's National Health Commission (NHC) said on Friday.
Exclusive: U.S. mulls using sweeping powers to ramp up production of coronavirus protective gear
President Donald Trump's administration is considering invoking special powers through a law called the Defense Production Act to rapidly expand domestic manufacturing of protective masks and clothing to combat the coronavirus in the United States, two U.S. officials told Reuters.
The Trump administration considers using 1950s-era law to ramp up production of masks and protective gear as coronavirus spreads
The Trump administration considers using 1950s-era law to ramp up production of masks and protective gear as coronavirus spreads | Markets Insider
Feb. 28, 2020 - The US could invoke a 1950s-era law that would allow the government to ramp up the production of gear to combat the spread of the coronavirus, a senior administration official and a congressional aide familiar with the matter said Friday.
The Trump administration is exploring the potential use of the Defense Production Act to increase the domestic availability of protective masks and clothing, according to the officials, but no final decision has been made.
And the "a little more to the left, a little more to the right" is spot on. Both sides in the culture wars seem to agree that we should panic, it seems. Paul Joseph Watson, for example, is ranting on Twitter how "open borders" caused the epidemic! Give me a friggin break. This is just playing with right-wing triggers. As much as I agree with critizising lefty ideas about mass-migration, clearly this has nothing to do with it. Unless you want to close all borders even to business traffic
I think there is another site to it, not to follow Paul Joseph Watsons argument at all, but Erdogan opened the borders to Europe for refugees for about 72 hours and according to one article of Sputnik 76,000 refugees crossed the border to Europe. Kind of interesting timing to further add some oil into the fire and increasing the pressure on Europe for example.
Over 76,000 Migrants Cross Turkey-EU Border - Turkish Interior Minister
ANKARA (Sputnik) - More than 76,000 migrants have crossed the Turkey-EU border following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's decision to open it, Turkey's Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said on Sunday.
sputniknews.com
angelburst29
The Living Force
"The Defense Production Act" -
Something doesn't feel right here? I'm sensing this Coronavirus situation in a whole different light? From the very beginning, just about everything to do with this situation has been blown - way out of proportion!
I am not denying that the Coronavirus is real and many people are suffering and dying, as a result of it. What I am really seeing ... this situation was dropped in China's lap, in the heart of it's business and financial district of Wuhan, to keep China busy and pre-occupied on the home front. The World Health Organization (WHO) is running interference - to keep the hornet's nest in a frenzy - while free movement is being restricted and Border's are closing, one by one. This Coronavirus is being used as a smokescreen.
Saturday Night Live ... puts out better scripts then this! New York health officials are complaining, they got faulty test kits from the Federal Government but not to worry ... the U.S. Health Secretary has at least "40 public health labs" and can double that TOMORROW.
Major report here from VP Pence - "just one American" with Coronavirus is still in the hospital, out of dozens of confirmed cases but doesn't state, if it was the Washington State man - who became the first fatality?
With those numbers ... the Pentagon wants 8 Billion under "The Defense Production Act"?
Looking at current events in the Middle East for some clues ...
U.S. and Taliban sign troop withdrawal deal; now comes the hard part
The deal is another smokescreen ... perfect cover for Pompeo and U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper to be in Afghan with NATO troops.
U.S. to withdraw troops from Afghanistan in 14 months if Taliban conditions met
The Afghanistan Government made no commitment to free 5,000 Taliban prisoners as stated in a pact signed between US and Taliban.
Afghanistan did not commit to release 5,000 Taliban, Ghani says
Now we come to Syria and the games Erdogan has been playing recently in a land grab for Idlib
Turkey's Erdogan asks Russia to step aside in Syria
My guess, Pompeo and Esper, along with NATO are backing and supporting Erdogan towards "a direct Military confrontation" with the Syrian Arab Army and Russian Troops? Russia was doing more then protecting it's citizen's from the Coronavirus - Russia was securing it's Borders and set it ships out to Sea - two of which are in Syrian waters. Erdogan has been acting like a complete mad-man lately, upping the ante and I doubt that he would wait another 30 days - to do something really STUPID?
I may be completely wrong in the way I see this ... but I honestly don't think so?
SOTTREADER
The Living Force
nature
Dagobah Resident
I think there is another site to it, not to follow Paul Joseph Watsons argument at all, but Erdogan opened the borders to Europe for refugees for about 72 hours and according to one article of Sputnik 76,000 refugees crossed the border to Europe. Kind of interesting timing to further add some oil into the fire and increasing the pressure on Europe for example.
Over 76,000 Migrants Cross Turkey-EU Border - Turkish Interior Minister
ANKARA (Sputnik) - More than 76,000 migrants have crossed the Turkey-EU border following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's decision to open it, Turkey's Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said on Sunday.
So european PTB might be happy of Erdogan's deeds. They want more refugees to create chaos here, again and again, violence within population 