They (the French government) went mandatory face mask on the streets now. This recent action adds another level of strangeness to all the herding of the masses .
I think the popular resistance (now), is to go to a café where the mask compliance falls to the side. It seems that breaking of bread gives the people a common ground again. And small Victory against the oppression and opposition.
The media's fear pron fuels their
contrived data adds to the public's skepticism.
France to impose more curfews and place areas into maximum Covid-19 alert
Covid-19. Is total re-containment in France possible?
Ouest-France
Red indicators and worrying figures on the rise, in France and abroad, European countries which are reverting to tougher restrictions or once again confining their population ... Faced with this gloomy picture, many are asking themselves the question of a possible reconfinement in France. Some even claim that the decision has already been taken. Let's try to take stock.
More than 2,000 patients have been in intensive care in France because of the Covid-19 since Monday, October 19. A level unmatched since mid-May.
The figure is worrying. And ask questions. What decisions to make in the face of what increasingly looks like a second wave? A second confinement? While some claim - without evidence - that this will soon be the case in the days to come, it must be recognized that the alarming statistics are increasing at the same rate as some confusion.
In France, the cacophony is not always absent from government decisions, consultation is sometimes lacking, and a good understanding of the restrictions is not acquired. In Europe, to speak only of our continent, not all countries adopt the same criteria for assessing the situation, the same decisions - setting up tests, monitoring contact cases, isolating patients - nor same restrictions - wearing a mask, social distancing, curfew, local or general re-containment ...
What are the elements that could lead to a reconfinement in France? And who are those who could save us from it?
Which could lead to reconfigure the country
An uncontrolled rise in the epidemic
Remember: in the summer, the executive, through the voice of Jean Castex and Olivier Véran, built its response strategy to the coronavirus epidemic around four scenarios. These range from controlling the circulation of the virus to widespread re-containment, relying on a series of indicators and protocols.
According to scenarios 1 and 2, the epidemic is under control thanks to the "test - trace - isolate" triptych and barrier gestures, the measures to be taken are differentiated. In the event of "critical clusters, signs of a local resumption of the epidemic", "localized and early measures" are applied.
According to scenarios 3 and 4, we are witnessing a loss of control of the epidemic. In the 3, the epidemic resumes "quietly". The indicators deteriorate without being able to trace the chains of contamination. The measures are reinforced (tests, barrier gestures, individual isolation, teleworking) up to the regional level and in large metropolitan areas. In the 4th, "the epidemic reaches a critical stage" as efforts to contain it have failed. This can lead to a general reconfinement as France experienced from mid-March to mid-May, with its catastrophic effects on the economy in particular.
The example of foreign countries and the approach of Christmas
Ireland and Wales will this week become the first territories in Europe to reconfigure their populations in the hope of "celebrating Christmas properly", and new screwdrivers are also coming into force in Belgium, Slovenia and Italy.
The restrictions are tightening day by day on the Old Continent in an attempt to curb the pandemic which has already killed 250,000 there and infected 40 million people around the world, including more than 2.5 million in the past seven days, the highest figure over a week.
In Ireland, the entire population will be re-confined from Wednesday night to Thursday and for six weeks, but schools will remain open.
Wales will be subject to a two-week lockdown from Friday. It is the toughest measure taken in the UK since the first wave of Covid-19 in the spring.
In Spain, the Navarre region will be partially cordoned off from Thursday, as will more and more Spanish cities, such as Burgos, which will be added to the list on Tuesday evening.
The exhaustion of caregivers and their lack of resources
A practitioner in a hospital in the Paris region, on the front line since February to treat patients with severe forms of Covid-19, an anesthetist-resuscitator delivers his journal of the health crisis every week, on condition of anonymity.
“For now, the October Covid ICU patients look very similar to the March Covid patients. […] We also found the FFP2 masks and their peculiar smell of medicine cabinets that we tried to forget this summer. Again, we are pulling paramedics where we can. […] And we try to move the boat forward with the means at hand. "
“We opened a dozen additional beds last week. We are asked to prepare for more. All of this is gradually increasing. But we are not very clear about our room for maneuver. We are told to increase to around 20 beds next week. It would be a miracle ... "
“Right now people are holding out, despite some weariness. […] But the announcement of the curfew threw a chill. This nocturnal confinement crystallizes the fact that we have entered the second or second wave. "
For his part, Aurélien Rousseau, director of the Regional Health Agency (ARS) of Ile-de-France, indicated a few days ago that with "474 patients, we have spent the 42% occupancy" of the beds of intensive care. A level that already requires the deprogramming of interventions to make room in hospitals.
WHO's concerns
On Monday, Dr Michael Ryan, head of health emergencies at the World Health Organization, said contact tracing was lacking in many European countries. Suddenly, the proven cases of Covid-19 have literally exploded on the Old Continent in the past two weeks, forcing the authorities to resume a whole series of more or less coercive measures to contain the pandemic.
What worries Dr Ryan is that the number of hospitalizations and deaths is starting to "mimic" the trend. His colleague, Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, was surprised that "the concept of cluster (infections during gatherings) does not enter people's minds" when "it is one of the hallmarks of coronaviruses".
In Europe - unlike Asia, where tracing and quarantine efforts have been maintained - spring lockdown periods have been followed in many cases by a loosening of authorities and individuals.
"I know people have had enough, but this virus has shown that if we let our guard down it can resurface at full speed and threaten hospitals and health systems," said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
COVID-19. Le taux d'occupation des lits en réanimation au 19 octobre 2020 Nombre de patients Covid-19 hospitalisés en réanimation*.
Interactive map:
*par rapport à la capacité initiale en lits dans les services de réanimation avant la crise sanitaire. Source: Santé publique France, Dress (2018).
Which could lead to not reconfining the country
The fear of economic collapse
This is obviously essential in a country already hit hard by the effects of Covid-19. The government absolutely wants to avoid total reconfinement in view of the heavy social, economic and psychological toll it costs.
Recall that the confinement of the population, put in place between March 17 and May 11, led to the impoverishment of a quarter of households, all the more strongly since their standard of living was initially low, according to a published survey. by INSEE on October 14.
That the world economy is in recession for many years. And that state aid, indispensable and welcome, cannot prevent closures, layoffs, bankruptcies.
According to Bruno Le Maire, interviewed last Friday on RMC, a general reconfinement would have a cost of "15 to 20 billion euros per month". The Minister of the Economy recalled that the cost of the aid put in place with the curfew for at least four weeks amounted to one billion euros. But he also gave two other estimates, for "comparison" purposes. “If we did a real containment in the areas where the virus is actively circulating, the cost would be in the order of five billion euros. If we had a generalized reconfinement, the cost would be - depending on the reaction of the business world - 15 to 20 billion euros per month ".
The opinion of the Scientific Council
Here is what we could read in a document published at the end of September: "At this stage of the epidemic, the Scientific Council does not plan to propose scenario 4 (new strong, potentially binding measures) at the national level". Adding that it could not "exclude its use in certain metropolises and of course in the event of subsequent degradation".
For the moment, this body clearly does not intend to recommend a global reconfinement of the population. But the numbers can of course change quickly ...
The choice to reconfine "locally"
This is already somewhat the meaning of the one-off curfew decided in Ile-de-France and in eight major metropolises (Lille, Lyon, Aix-Marseille, Grenoble, Toulouse, Montpellier, Saint-Etienne and Rouen) since this week- end and until December 1 - for now.
In addition, in the coming days, the executive could decide to extend this curfew to other cities (Dijon, Rennes, Bordeaux, Clermont-Ferrand and Nice in particular), or even to departments (such as Bouches- du-Rhône, even Calvados) or to certain regions. This nighttime confinement can make it possible to avoid making an obviously more drastic decision. But the effects will only be felt in a fortnight.
Promoting telework rather than closing schools
Cited by franceinfo, Vittoria Colliza, research director at Inserm, has worked on around thirty scenarios to reduce the circulation of the virus after confinement. According to her, closing schools only reduces contamination by 10%. But with 25% of adults working from home, we reduce the contamination peak by 40%.
Still, few French people are teleworking today: 14% of those questioned, according to a poll carried out in early October by Odoxa for Franceinfo. While a quarter of the clusters are currently identified in the workplace.
The application of WHO recommendations
Faced with the worrying rebound of the Covid-19 pandemic in France, much of Europe and the United States, the head of health emergencies at the World Health Organization has only urgent advice to give authorities: "Quarantine contact cases!" "
"I do not believe that this has been done anywhere in a systematic way", explained this Monday in Geneva the doctor Michael Ryan, and it is "one of the main reasons why we see figures so high ". More than drastic and generalized measures, a real follow-up of contact cases and their isolation would make it possible to effectively contain the virus.
It remains for the countries - European in particular - to follow these basic recommendations closely.