The Living Force
Si l’humanité ne réduit pas ses émissions de CO2 d’ici 2035, la température annuelle moyenne augmentera de 4,5°C à 5ºC, estiment les scientifiques. Cela pourrait...
In total, 2964 people died in the Netherlands during the week that started on July 22, the CBS said, which was around 15% more than during an average week in the summertime.
Temperature records tumbled across Europe during late July’s heatwave, and for the first time since records began topped 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in the Netherlands on July 25.
The death toll in the Netherlands during that week was comparable to the rate during two heatwaves in 2006, which were among the longest ever in the country, the researchers said.
About 300 of the additional fatalities were among people aged 80 years and older.
Most of the deaths occurred in the east of the Netherlands, where temperatures were higher and the heatwave lasted longer than in other parts of the country.
The Netherlands has a total population of around 17 million.
The heatwave was the second to hit Europe in a month, and climate specialists warn such bursts of heat may become more common as the planet warms up due to greenhouse gas emissions.
A previous MIT report had looked at projected heat waves in the Gulf. While the number of “extreme heat” days foreseen for the Gulf was worse than South Asia, the impact on the latter region — in particular, northern India, Bangladesh and southern Pakistan — could be vastly more severe given its expanse of agricultural land and population size.
The big question is: Are the parts of the world likely to be worst affected by climate change, including the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, prepared to withstand such temperatures?
Karim Elgendy, founder and coordinator of Carboun, a non-profit volunteer-based advocacy project promoting sustainable cities in MENA, told Arab News that the MIT studies were “very alarming” and among the “most influential papers to come out on regional climate change in quite a long time.”
The Gulf is expected to be deeply affected by climate change because of its high levels of sunshine and humidity in addition to its scant water reserves, Elgendy said. It means the region is likely to be one of those most at risk for the threshold for extreme heat on the wet-bulb global temperature index. In the coming decades, the region is predicted to see days when this extreme threshold will be crossed, Elgendy said.
“No one is denying that this is potentially dangerous. We are not talking about these conditions being fatal for a short period of time, for example getting out of your home and into a car. But if you spend six hours in these temperatures — if you were a laborer working outside — then this is potentially fatal.
“In many Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) cities, where the real-estate market is a major part of the economy, there are lots of people working outside who could be affected by this.
“We are also talking about increased risk levels and increased dependence on air conditioning as a life-support system. If outdoor conditions can be fatal, can anyone risk having their vehicle break down on the road in these temperatures where you could potentially die? Is that really something you want to contemplate?”
Tony Addison, chief economist and deputy director for the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), said the MIT’s latest predictions “seem plausible” if nothing changes.
“Today’s weather, including the rising temperature, reflects the impact of the stock of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) already in the atmosphere,” he said. “Even if the world stopped adding to the stock of GHG today, the impact on temperature and other weather conditions would continue into the far future.
“The world is continuing to add to that stock, and there is a high risk that we will not contain GHG emissions within a range that avoids serious and continued warming.”
A study by the World Bank recently identified climate “hotspots” — regions most vulnerable to climate change — in South Asia.
“We looked at two scenarios: A ‘climate-sensitive’ scenario in which countries comply with the Paris Climate Agreement and a ‘carbon intensive’ scenario where the agreement breaks down and carbon emissions continue unabated,” said Muthukumara Mani, the World Bank’s lead economist for the South Asia region, referring to the 2016 pact which aims to limit global warming to less than 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.
The report predicted that annual average temperatures in South Asia will increase by 1.6°C before 2050 under the climate-sensitive scenario, and by 2.2°C under the carbon-intensive scenario. More than half the region will be a “hotspot” by 2050 under the carbon-intensive scenario, with 45 percent of the present popu-lation of South Asia — 800 million people — living in areas projected to become moderate or severe hotspots.
According to Marine Pouget, a MENA policy advisor at Germanwatch, while Gulf countries can already deal with the heatwaves, the soaring temperatures seen across the globe will raise a significant issue in the coming decade — energy consumption.
“Air conditioning will have to be able to work longer and under harder conditions. This will have an impact in the private sphere, but also on business and tourism. The energy bill for the Gulf countries may rise rapidly,” she told Arab News.
Pouget said Gulf countries need to implement heatwave assistance programs that cater for the most vulnerable, such as children, isolated elderly citizens and those in ill-health during heatwaves. She pointed to France as a case study — and the measures it put in place following the infamous 2003 heatwave that caused thousands of deaths — including adopting strict guidelines and an alert system that has since won plaudits from the UN.
Elgendy said action is needed to make Gulf countries resilient in the face of rising temperatures and to mitigate “alarming long-term risks,” such as rising sea levels for the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain, and increased risks of storms for Oman.
“Given the unique socio-economic and environmental conditions of the MENA region, we must consider sustainability together with climate resilience to ensure the region becomes ready for its almost inevitable impacts,” he told Arab News.
“The fact that the GCC region is still buildings its cities and infrastructure provides a good opportunity for positive policy.”
Elgendy said the wider MENA region needs to address the impacts of climate change despite its limited historical responsibility for emissions, compared with the regions of Europe and North America, which have more “moral responsibility” for most of the carbon in our atmosphere today.
The GCC started to take action when it announced its shift towards renewable energy, he said. Saudi Arabia, for example, has set for itself a renewable energy target of 27.3 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2024. Elgendy said the GCC countries can do more to strengthen their commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement.
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
The map below shows surface soil moisture as of March 29, 2021, as measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellites. The colors depict the wetness percentile; that is, how the levels of soil moisture compare to long-term records for the month. Blue areas have more abundant water than usual, and orange and red areas have less. The darkest reds represent dry conditions that should occur only 2 percent of the time (about once every 50 years).
The map below shows shallow groundwater storage as of March 29, 2021, as measured by the GRACE-FO satellites. The colors depict how the amount of groundwater compares to long-term records (1948-2010). Groundwater in aquifers is an important resource for crop irrigation and drinking water, and it also can sustain streams during dry periods. Groundwater takes months to rebound from drought, though, as it has to be slowly and steadily replenished by surface moisture that seeps down through soil and rock to the water table.
here:As California enters the dry months of summer, this water year is on track to be one of the driest on record- due in no small measure to the lack of landfalling atmospheric rivers and persistent ridging/blocking over the Northeast Pacific Ocean (drought.gov). Statewide snowpack peaked on March 23rd with 64 percent its daily average, then shriveled to 17 percent of its daily average by the end of April, and to 7 percent by May 12th. Seasonal (October-April) precipitation totals were less than 50 percent of average in all three regions. Early May has been extremely dry, further reducing the seasonal average. California’s major reservoirs (excluding Lake Mead and Lake Powell) are collectively storing almost 8.5 million acre-feet less than they were this time last year. **** RESERVOIRS Total storage in California’s major reservoirs (excluding Lake Powell and Lake Mead) was 73 percent of average on April 30th, compared to 101 percent this time last year. Storage in Shasta Dam was 59 percent of average at the end of the month, roughly 1.4 million acre-feet less than this time last year. Storage in Lake Mead continues to decline, with reservoir levels approaching the 1,075-foot elevation that would trigger a Level 1 Water Shortage Declaration for the Lower Colorado River Basin.
D. Shortage Conditions 1. Deliveries to the Lower Division States during Shortage Condition Years shall be implemented in the following manner:
According to Lakesonline.com, Lake Mead's level on 27 June 2021 was 1,069.42 Feet MSL, about 160 feet below "full pool."
So, a million acre feet would cover 1 million football fields with 1 foot of water each. In 2018, California applied 24.5 million acre feet of water to 8.4 million acres of irrigated land, according to the USDA.One acre-foot equals about 326,000 gallons, or enough water to cover an acre of land, about the size of a football field, one foot deep.
Other entities in California are turning to desalination Desalination Is Booming as Cities Run out of Water :This project is the world's largest wastewater purification system for indirect potable reuse. The Groundwater Replenishment System (GWRS) takes highly treated wastewater that would have previously been discharged into the Pacific Ocean and purifies it using a three-step advanced treatment process consisting of microfiltration, reverse osmosis and ultraviolet light with hydrogen peroxide. The process produces high-quality water that exceeds all state and federal drinking water standards. Operational since January 2008, this state-of-the-art water purification project can produce up to 70 million gallons (265,000 cubic meters) of high-quality water every day. This is enough water to meet the needs of nearly 600,000 residents in north and central Orange County, California.
Not everyone is thrilled with desalination, pointing out that it requires great amounts of energy, as set out here and here. It should be noted that the "anti-desal" pieces are older than the startup of the San Diego Carlsbad plant.Some 30 miles north of San Diego, along the Pacific Coast, sits the Claude “Bud” Lewis Carlsbad Desalination Plant, the largest effort to turn salt water into fresh water in North America.
Each day 100 million gallons of seawater are pushed through semi-permeable membranes to create 50 million gallons of water that is piped to municipal users. Carlsbad, which became fully operational in 2015, creates about 10 percent of the fresh water the 3.1 million people in the region use, at about twice the cost of the other main source of water.
Expensive, yes, but vital for the fact that it is local and reliable. “Drought is a recurring condition here in California,” said Jeremy Crutchfield, water resources manager at the San Diego County Water Authority. “We just came out of a five-year drought in 2017. The plant has reduced our reliance on imported supplies, which is challenging at times here in California. So it’s a component for reliability.”
A second plant, similar to Carlsbad, is being built in Huntington, California with the same 50-million-gallon-a-day capability. Currently there are 11 desalination plants in California, and 10 more are proposed.
It would seem California needs to rethink many issues, including nuclear power to help power a system that will help it survive droughts.The group responsible for North American electric reliability has already warned that California is the U.S. region most at risk of power shortages this summer because the state increasingly relies on intermittent energy sources like wind and solar, and as climate change causes more extreme heat events, drought and wildfires across the U.S. West.
#2 CBS News Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli is reporting that there is only a “1/10,000+ chance” that a heat dome of this magnitude could form over the Northwest…The heat wave baking the U.S. Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, Canada, is of an intensity never recorded by modern humans. By one measure it is more rare than a once in a 1,000 year event — which means that if you could live in this particular spot for 1,000 years, you’d likely only experience a heat dome like this once, if ever.
#3 The hottest temperature ever recorded in Portland, Oregon prior to this heatwave was 107 degrees. On Saturday, the high temperature in the city was 108.To put climate extremes into perspective we measure against the average. The sigma is the standard deviation of a normal distribution of expected values. In this case the heat dome sigma max is 4.4 – that means it’s outside of 99.99% of expected values or a 1/10,000+ chance
#13 What most people living in other parts of the country don’t realize is that millions upon millions of people living in the Northwest do not have any air conditioning. In fact, even in Seattle the percentage of people with air conditioning is “well under 50%”…In Everson, Washington, located about 100 miles north of Seattle, the heat proved so extreme that roads and sidewalks buckled. State officers shared photos of the cracked roadways, which rendered the streets unsafe and caused detours.
In Yakima, located in the southeastern portion of the state, other Twitter users shared photos of sidewalks buckling under the heat and popping out of the ground.
#14 Incredibly, the weather is even hotter north of the border. On Sunday, the city of Lytton in British Columbia actually recorded the hottest temperature in the history of Canada…Dr. Kristie Ebi, a professor at the University of Washington, told AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell that she was particularly concerned for high-risk residents of the area, such as the elderly.
“We’re well under 50% of people who have access to air conditioning,” she said. “I was quite surprised a couple of years ago when we had a heat wave…I was the only one who had air conditioning, no one else did.”
This is completely and totally removed from any definition of “normal” that you would like to come up with.On Sunday, Lytton, British Columbia, recorded the highest temperature ever in Canada’s history as the thermometer soared to 116 F (46.6 C). The previous record for all of Canada was 113 F (45 C), set on July 5, 1937, in Midale and Yellowgrass, Saskatchewan.
Unfortunately, everyone agrees that a whole lot more violence is coming.Even after for months running Chicago has typically seen many consecutive weekends with some 40 shootings every Saturday and Sunday, this weekend’s numbers have reached truly staggering new heights, with at least 77 people shot by Sunday night, including five killed.
Local Chicago news has noted further that seven of the surviving victims are minors of 17-years old or younger. From Saturday night, news of shootings came in so rapidly that police and reporters struggled to keep a tally, with Chicago PD citing 55 wounded across the city by Sunday evening.
Dozens of people have died in Canada amid an unprecedented heatwave that has smashed temperature records.
Police in the Vancouver area have responded to more than 130 sudden deaths since Friday. Most were elderly or had underlying health conditions, with heat often a contributing factor.
Canada broke its temperature record for a third straight day on Tuesday - 49.6C (121.3F) in Lytton, British Columbia.
The US north-west has also seen record highs - and a number of fatalities.
Experts say climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves. However, linking any single event to global warming is complicated.
Record heat has been felt across the the Pacific Northwest this week, which has led the MSM and their placard-brandishing, sandal wearing EOTW groupies to draw the connection to ‘global warming’ aka ‘the climate crisis’ aka ‘terrifying terra firma broiling’.
However, AccuWeather Meteorologist Joe Lundberg is on the record as saying that AGW isn’t to blame here.
This is the 'calamatous earth-baking syndrome' the likes of the WP and BBC keep bleating on about.
There is only-ever one side of the climate story corrupted institutions such as these report on: heat.
Even as I'm writing this, the BBC has released an article entitled: "Canada Weather: Dozens dead as heatwave shatters records"; but when you delve into the story, the excess deaths they speak of were in the elderly and/or those that had underlying health conditions, where "heat is often a contributing factor" — in other words, the BBC has taken it upon themselves to assign the deaths to the heat.
Also according to the BBC's obfuscating claptrap of a story, "climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves", which is all well and good when it comes to pushing an agenda like CAGW, but as Tony Heller points out on his blog realclimatescience.com, history and science don't support such a claim.
This week in 1901, New York was shut down as extreme heat brought "death and much suffering":
And if 'global warming' is such a new and unprecedented phenomenon, then what caused the deadly European heatwave of 1911, which ran 70 days from July to September and killed more than 40,000 people in Paris alone, mostly babies:
The deadliest heatwaves in history coincide with Solar Minimums.
This correlation serves as yet another example of how low solar activity-induced meridional jet stream flows can screw with Earth's weather patterns — a setup we're seeing now.
During these times of reduced solar output the jet streams weaken and revert to a wavy flow, and, depending on which side of the jet stream you find yourself on, you'll either experience unusual heat pulled up from the Tropics or anomalous cold dragged down from the Arctic (for more the mechanisms, click the link below).
RECAP: The Changing Jet Stream and Global Cooling
Yep, a lot of emotional fear pron by the actors of MSM.The MSM is all over the Pacific Northwest heatwave of course, such as the BBC: