Iran

It's not nice to bluff even if you think that's "The art of the Deal"...

PEPE ESCOBAR: War on Iran & Calling America’s Bluff

Vast swathes of the West seem not to realize that if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down a global depression will follow, writes Pepe Escobar.

By Pepe Escobar
Special to Consortium News

l

The Trump administration once again has graphically demonstrated that in the young, turbulent 21st century, “international law” and “national sovereignty” already belong to the Realm of the Walking Dead.

As if a deluge of sanctions against a great deal of the planet was not enough, the latest “offer you can’t refuse” conveyed by a gangster posing as diplomat, Consul Minimus Mike Pompeo, now essentially orders the whole planet to submit to the one and only arbiter of world trade: Washington.

First the Trump administration unilaterally smashed a multinational, UN-endorsed agreement, the JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal. Now the waivers that magnanimously allowed eight nations to import oil from Iran without incurring imperial wrath in the form of sanctions will expire on May 2 and won’t be renewed.

The eight nations are a mix of Eurasian powers: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and Greece.

Apart from the trademark toxic cocktail of hubris, illegality, arrogance/ignorance and geopolitical/geoeconomic infantilism inbuilt in this foreign policy decision, the notion that Washington can decide who’s allowed to be an energy provider to emerging superpower China does not even qualify as laughable. Much more alarming is the fact that imposing a total embargo of Iranian oil exports is no less than an act of war.

Ultimate Neocon Wet Dream

Those subscribing to the ultimate U.S, neocon and Zionist wet dream – regime change in Iran – may rejoice at this declaration of war. But as Professor Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran has elegantly argued, “If the Trump regime miscalculates, the house can easily come crashing down on its head.”

Reflecting the fact Tehran seems to have no illusions regarding the utter folly ahead, the Iranian leadership if provoked to a point of no return, Marandi additionally told me can get as far as “destroying everything on the other side of the Persian Gulf and chasing the U.S. out of Iraq and Afghanistan. When the U.S. escalates, Iran escalates. Now it depends on the U.S. how far things go.”

This red alert from a sensible academic perfectly dovetails with what’s happening with the structure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — recently branded a “terrorist organization” by the United States. In perfect symmetry, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also branded the U.S. Central Command CENTCOM and “all the forces connected to it” as a terrorist group.

The new IRGC commander-in-chief is Brigadier General Hossein Salami, 58. Since 2009 he was the deputy of previous commander Mohamamd al-Jafari, a soft spoken but tough as nails gentleman I met in Tehran two years ago. Salami, as well as Jafari, is a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war; that is, he has actual combat experience. And Tehran sources assure me that he can be even tougher than Jafari.



In tandem, IRGC Navy Commander Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri has evoked the unthinkable in terms of what might develop out of the U.S. total embargo on Iran oil exports; Tehran could block the Strait of Hormuz.

Western Oblivion

Vast swathes of the ruling classes across the West seem to be oblivious to the reality that if Hormuz is shut down, the result will be an absolutely cataclysmic global economic depression.

Warren Buffett, among other investors, has routinely qualified the 2.5 quadrillion derivatives market as a weapon of financial mass destruction. As it stands, these derivatives are used — illegally — to drain no less than a trillion U.S. dollars a year out of the market in manipulated profits.

Considering historical precedents, Washington may eventually be able to set up a Persian Gulf of Tonkin false flag. But what next?

If Tehran were totally cornered by Washington, with no way out, the de facto nuclear option of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would instantly cut off 25 percent of the global oil supply. Oil prices could rise to over $500 a barrel, to even $1000 a barrel. The 2.5 quadrillion of derivatives would start a chain reaction of destruction.

Unlike the shortage of credit during the 2008 financial crisis, the shortage of oil could not be made up by fiat instruments. Simply because the oil is not there. Not even Russia would be able to re-stabilize the market.

It’s an open secret in private conversations at the Harvard Club – or at Pentagon war-games for that matter – that in case of a war on Iran, the U.S. Navy would not be able to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

Russian SS-NX-26 Yakhont missiles with a top speed of Mach 2.9 are lining up the Iranian northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz. There’s no way U.S. aircraft carriers can defend a barrage of Yakhont missiles.

Then there are the SS-N-22 Sunburn supersonic anti-ship missiles already exported to China and India flying ultra-low at 1,500 miles an hour with dodging capacity, and extremely mobile; they can be fired from a flatbed truck, and were designed to defeat the U.S. Aegis radar defense system.

What Will China Do?

The fullfrontal attack on Iran reveals how the Trump administration bets on breaking Eurasia integration via what would be its weakeast node; the three key nodes are China, Russia and Iran. These three actors interconnect the whole spectrum; Belt and Road Initiative; the Eurasia Economic Union; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; the International North-South Transportation Corridor; the expansion of BRICS Plus.

So there’s no question the Russia-China strategic partnership will be watching Iran’s back. It’s no accident that the trio is among the top existential “threats” to the U.S., according to the Pentagon. Beijing knows how the U.S. Navy is able to cut it off from its energy sources. And that’s why Beijing is strategically increasing imports of oil and natural gas from Russia; engineering the “escape from Malacca” also must take into account a hypothetical U.S. takeover of the Strait of Hormuz.

A plausible scenario involves Moscow acting to defuse the extremely volatile U.S.-Iran confrontation, with the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense trying to persuade President Donald Trump and the Pentagon from any direct attack against the IRGC. The inevitable counterpart is the rise of covert ops, the possible staging of false flags and all manner of shady Hybrid War techniques deployed not only against the IRGC, directly and indirectly, but against Iranian interests everywhere. For all practical purposes, the U.S. and Iran are at war.

Within the framework of the larger Eurasia break-up scenario, the Trump administration does profit from Wahhabi and Zionist psychopathic hatred of Shi’ites. The “maximum pressure” on Iran counts on Jared of Arabia Kushner’s close WhatsApp pal Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) in Riyadh and MbS’s mentor in Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Zayed, to replace the shortfall of Iranian oil in the market. Bu that’s nonsense as quite a few wily Persian Gulf traders are adamant Riyadh won’t “absorb Iran’s market share” because the extra oil is not there.

Much of what lies ahead in the oil embargo saga depends on the reaction of assorted vassals and semi-vassals. Japan won’t have the guts to go against Washington. Turkey will put up a fight. Italy, via Salvini, will lobby for a waiver. India is very complicated; New Delhi is investing in Iran’s Chabahar port as the key hub of its own Silk Road, and closely cooperates with Tehran within the INSTC framework. Would a shameful betrayal be in the cards?

China, it goes without saying, will simply ignore Washington.

Iran will find ways to get the oil flowing because the demand won’t simply vanish with a magic wave of an American hand. It’s time for creative solutions. Why not, for instance, refuel ships in international waters, accepting gold, all sorts of cash, debit cards, bank transfers in rubles, yuan, rupees and rials and everything bookable on a website?

Now that’s a way Iran can use its tanker fleet to make a killing. Some of the tankers could be parked in you got it the Strait of Hormuz, with an eye on the price at Jebel Ali in the UAE to make sure this is the real deal. Add to it a duty free for the ships crews. What’s not to like? Ship owners will save fortunes on fuel bills, and crews will get all sorts of stuff at 90 percent discount in the duty free.

And let’s see whether the EU has grown a spine and really turbo-charge their Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) alternative payment network conceived after the Trump administration ditched the JCPOA. Because more than breaking up Eurasia integration and implementing neocon regime change, this is about the ultimate anathema; Iran is being mercilessly punished because it has bypassed the U.S. dollar on energy trade.
 
Secretary of state says no grace period after May 1 end to Iran oil waivers April 21, 2019
FILE PHOTO: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks to the media at the State Department in Washington, U.S., April 19, 2019. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Monday the United States is not extending any waivers exempting importers of Iranian oil from U.S. sanctions and there will be no grace period for those economies to comply.

Turkey criticizes U.S. decision to end waivers on Iran oil sanctions
Turkey slammed the U.S. decision to end waivers on Iranian oil sanctions, saying it would not serve regional peace and stability, its foreign minister tweeted on Monday.

Iran says ready for U.S. waivers end, as Guards threaten to shut Hormuz
FILE PHOTO: A gas flare on an oil production platform in the Soroush oil fields is seen alongside an Iranian flag in the Gulf July 25, 2005. REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi/File Photo
Tehran is prepared for a U.S. decision to end waivers granted to buyers of Iranian crude, an Iranian oil ministry source said on Monday, as the Revolutionary Guards repeated their threat to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Iranian media reported.

Any move by Iran to close Strait of Hormuz unacceptable - senior U.S. official

Oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, December 21, 2018. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed
Any move by Iran to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz in response to the United States ending oil waivers for purchases of Iranian oil would be unjustified and unacceptable, a senior administration official said on Monday.

U.S. offers $10 million reward for information to disrupt Hezbollah finances
FILE PHOTO: A man holds a Hezbollah flag at Meis al-Jabal village in south Lebanon, December 9, 2018. REUTERS/Aziz Taher

The United States on Monday offered a reward of up to $10 million for information that could help disrupt financing of Hezbollah,
the armed Shi'ite group backed by Iran.

Goldman says removal of Iran oil sanctions waivers to have limited impact
Goldman Sachs expects the United States' decision to end waivers from sanctions on imports of Iranian oil to have a limited impact on prices, even though the timing of the halt is much more sudden than expected.

Iran lawmakers authorize firm action against U.S. 'terrorist' acts
Iran's parliament passed a bill on Tuesday requiring the government take firm steps to respond to "terrorist actions" by U.S. forces,
state TV reported, retaliating against Washington's blacklisting of the country's elite Revolutionary Guards.

India to get extra oil from major producers to make up for Iran oil loss: minister
India will get additional supplies from other major oil producing countries to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil,
India's Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said on Tuesday.

U.S. to end all waivers on imports of Iranian oil, crude price jumps
The United States on Monday demanded that buyers of Iranian oil stop purchases by May 1 or face sanctions,
a move to choke off Tehran's oil revenues which sent crude prices to six-month highs on fears of a potential supply crunch.

South Korea to send delegation to U.S. for talks on Iran sanction waivers
A South Korean delegation will head to Washington as early as this week for talks with U.S. officials after the United States announced plans to end all Iran sanction waivers, two South Korean government officials said on Tuesday.

Rouhani says U.S. must lift pressure and apologize before Iran will negotiate
FILE PHOTO: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks during a news conference with Iraqi President Barham Salih (not pictured) in Baghdad, Iraq, March 11, 2019. REUTERS/Thaier al-Sudani

Iran is willing to negotiate with America only when the United States lifts pressure and apologizes,
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday, according to state media.

Iran can export as much oil as it needs: supreme leader
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that the country can export as much oil as it needs,
his official website reported, as the United States prepares to end sanctions waivers it granted to some importers of Iranian crude.

Rouhani says Saudi Arabia, UAE owe their existence today to Iran: TV
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates owed their existence to Iran
because it had refused to help former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein invade the two countries, state TV reported.

U.S. issues new Hezbollah-related sanctions April 24, 2019
The United States on Wednesday imposed sanctions on several individuals and entities under a program targeting the Iran-backed armed Shi'ite group Hezbollah.

U.S. targets two men, three firms for helping Hezbollah avoid sanctions April 24, 2019
The U.S. Treasury, moving to boost pressure on Hezbollah, imposed sanctions
on Wednesday against two people and three firms that Washington accuses of being involved in schemes to help the armed Shi'ite group backed by Iran evade American sanctions.

Iran's Zarif warns U.S. of 'consequences' over oil sanctions, offer prisoner swap
Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sits for an interview with Reuters in New York, New York, U.S. April 24, 2019.   REUTERS/Carlo Allegri

The United States must be prepared for consequences if it tries to stop Iran from selling oil and using the Strait of Hormuz,

Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned on Wednesday, while also offering to negotiate prisoner swaps with Washington.

Kuwait looks at Iran's threats to block Strait of Hormuz 'with concern'

FILE PHOTO: Oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, December 21, 2018. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed/File Photo
Kuwait is looking at Iranian threats to block the Strait of Hormuz with concern, the Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) on Sunday quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled al-Jarallah as saying.

Iran says leaving nuclear treaty one of many options after U.S. sanctions move
Iran said on Sunday it could quit a treaty against the spread of nuclear weapons after the United States tightens sanctions, while an Iranian general said the U.S. Navy was interacting as before with an elite military unit blacklisted by Washington.

Iran's Zarif plans North Korea visit: Iranian state TV

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is planning to visit North Korea, Iran's state television reported on Sunday, without giving the date of the visit.

Exclusive: Iran's Zarif believes Trump does not want war, but could be lured into conflict April 24, 2019
“I don’t think he wants war,” Zarif said in an interview at the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York. “But that doesn’t exclude him being basically lured into one.”


The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Zarif’s remarks.

Zarif said a so-called “B-team,” including Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton, an ardent Iran hawk, and conservative Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could goad Trump into a conflict with Tehran.

“Those who have designed the policies that are being pursued do not simply want a negotiated solution. But let me make it clear that Iran is not seeking confrontation, but will not escape defending itself,” he said.


In somewhat cryptic remarks, Zarif also warned of the possibility that people could try “to plot an accident” that could trigger a broader crisis.

Tensions between Tehran and Washington have risen since the Trump administration withdrew last year from an international nuclear deal with Iran and began ratcheting up sanctions. Earlier this month, the United States blacklisted Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and demanded buyers of Iranian oil stop purchases by May or face sanctions.

The U.S. blacklisting of the IRGC, Iran’s most powerful security organization with huge stakes in the economy, was the first time any nation has labeled another country’s military a terrorist organization.

Zarif said Iran would act with “prudence” in response to what he saw as dangerous policies by the United States. In one example, he said Iran would still allow U.S. warships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil artery.

Rules of Engagement - Zarif called the decision on the IRGC “absurd,” but suggested that Iran did not plan to respond militarily unless the United States changed the rules of engagement guiding how it interacts with Iran’s forces. The U.S. military has not suggested it would change its behavior after the blacklisting.

“We will exercise prudence but it doesn’t mean that if the United States changed the rules of the game, or changed the rules of engagement, it would be able to get away with that,” Zarif said.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and some senior military commanders have threatened to disrupt oil shipments from the Gulf countries if Washington tries to strangle Tehran oil exports.

Carrying one third of the world’s seaborne oil every day, the Strait of Hormuz links Middle East crude producers to markets in Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and beyond.

When asked if U.S. warships could still pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Zarif - a veteran diplomat who has been foreign minister for more than six years - said: “Ships can go through the Strait of Hormuz.”

“If the United States wanted to continue to observe the rules of engagement, the rules of the game, the channels of communication, the prevailing protocols, then in spite of the fact that we consider U.S. presence in the Persian Gulf as inherently destabilizing, we’re not going to take any action,” Zarif said.

The United States has accused Tehran of destabilizing the Middle East and helping to prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a civil war that began in 2011.

Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, the overseas arm of the IRGC, appeared on frontlines across Syria.

Zarif said Iran would remain “vigilant” in Syria and in Iraq after investing resources to fight there. “And we will not simply abandon that, that fight,” Zarif said.

"PHD" in Sanctions Busting - Zarif, the U.S.-educated architect of the 2015 nuclear deal who came under attack from anti-Western hardliners in Iran after Trump pulled out of the agreement last year, signaled Tehran would be resilient in the face of U.S. sanctions.

“I mean there are always ways of going around the sanctions. We have a PhD in that area,” Zarif said.

The United States on Monday demanded buyers of Iranian oil stop purchases by May or face sanctions, ending six months of waivers which allowed Iran’s eight biggest buyers, most of them in Asia, to continue importing limited volumes.

Zarif acknowledged that oil sanctions hurt ordinary Iranians and the government would do whatever it could to sell oil to provide for its citizens.

When asked who else Iran might consider selling oil to, Zarif said: “If I told you, we won’t be able to sell it to them.”
 
Iran is willing to negotiate with America only when the United States lifts pressure and apologizes, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday, according to state media.

Love the smile on Rouhani's face! :-)

30054

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that the country can export as much oil as it needs, his official website reported, as the United States prepares to end sanctions waivers it granted to some importers of Iranian crude.

Carrying one third of the world’s seaborne oil every day, the Strait of Hormuz links Middle East crude producers to markets in Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and beyond.

Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would give most realists pause for consideration but realists in the U.S. government is an oxymoron.

there will be no grace period

Pompeo is stating his own fate I would say. "Death throes" can be mighty painful. Of course the whole country (U.S) will suffer along with these idiots. The "grace period" has just about run out.
 
Iran is following Russia's steps in the "tit-for-tat" response - what's good for the goose - is good for the gander!

Iran designates as terrorists all U.S. troops in Middle East
FILE PHOTO: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks during a meeting with tribal leaders in Kerbala, Iraq, March 12, 2019. REUTERS/Abdullah Dhiaa Al-Deen/File Photo

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani signed a bill into law on Tuesday declaring all U.S. forces in the Middle East terrorists and calling the U.S. government a sponsor of terrorism.

Chief commander of Quds force Soleimani says talks with U.S. impossible: Fars
The influential chief commander of Iran's Quds force said on Monday that the country's clerical establishment would never negotiate with the United States under enforced economic pressure, the semi-official Fars news agency reported.
 
Iran is following Russia's steps in the "tit-for-tat" response - what's good for the goose - is good for the gander!

Yep! John Bolton and Pompeo should seriously be fired for their crazy ideas! It says here:

CBS News "Face the Nation" moderator Margaret Brennan reports that White House officials, including National Security Adviser John Bolton and Pompeo himself, had been arguing for the designation [of Iran's IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization] for some time.
 
Not quite sure what's going to happen in Iran in the coming days/months with everything going on. I don't think an all-out war will happen (Iran has strong allies, and good defense and fire power I think), but I wonder if there will be terror attacks in Iran by Mossad, or attacks elsewhere that will be blamed on Iran that would 'justify' a counterattack/measure.

I thought I'd put together some parts from sessions where Iran was discussed:

14 April 2018

(Ark) They can have a war to destroy Iran.

(L) That's what Israel wants.

(Ark) That's what they're preparing for. That will be the next one.

(L) Didn't the C's say years ago that that was the ultimate objective?

(Joe) Well, Iran, Iraq, Libya...

(L) The ultimate objective was Iran, but it would result in the destruction of Israel.

(Joe) They may be trying to go in that direction, but it's very foolish.

(L) Is there anything... I guess it's a stupid question to ask, but: Is there anything that can stop this madness?

A: No there isn't nor would you want to stop it!

Q: (L) Why wouldn't I want to stop it?

A: Cleansing.

Q: (L) It's a cleansing. In other words, these people...

(Pierre) You're going to end up with the destruction of the bad guys.

(Joe) Because the bad guys are going to get it in the neck. The problem is in the Middle East. That's where they're desperate, and Israel is desperate. And they see a major change in global power coming, and they'll be sidelined along with America. That's what they want to stop. If it's centered in the Middle East, then they're going to have to have a war in the Middle East, including with Iran. Russia's been quietly selling all sorts of weapons...

(L) I think Russia and Iran have been quietly arming themselves. One of the reasons they've been so patient is that not only does it exhibit their Zen consciousness, but it also gives them time to arm themselves to the teeth!

(Joe) Right. And the Chinese...

(L) They're building weapons and super-weapons like crazy while America and much of the West is piddling around.

10 December 2016

(L) So, what's the ultimate outcome?

A: We have discussed this in the past.

Q: (L) So they want war with Iran. They want to take over Iran?

A: Just hang on and observe what happens in the next 40 or so days. It will give you chills up your spine.

Q: (Joe) Why do you think Iran?

(L) Well, Israel wants Iran. Israel wants to destroy Iran and institute their god knows what... I dunno what they want!

(Joe) I think Iran's off the table at this point.

(L) But some of them are trying to put it back. Even Trump. The thing was that years ago, we asked what was going to be the ultimate outcome, and they said the destruction of Israel. All of this manipulating and maneuvering that Israel is doing, they will only end up destroying themselves.

(Joe) Iran is... With Russia's intervention, they couldn't even get close to what they wanted in Syria with 26 million people. Iran is like 80 million people and much more powerful.

(L) Yeah, but that doesn't stop them from wanting it. I think they figured if they could get Syria, then they could go for Iran.

(Joe) But they haven't gotten Syria.

(L) Yeah, but they still think they're gonna get it! That's why Obama is sending these 200 people, Turkey is sending these 300 people, they've released funds and ammunition...

(Andromeda) They’re cra-cra!

(PoB) They want to question the nuclear treaty with Iran.

(L) It's just insane. So... Alright.

(Andromeda) 40 days??

(Chu) That coincides with Trump actually getting into power.

(Data) It also coincides with the "after Christmas" remark they once said.

(Joe) 40 days is right up until before Trump becomes inaugurated. That's in line with what the Obama gang have done with this weapons to terrorists business. Sounds like they're gonna continue...

(L) Yeah, like they've got 40 days in which to play in the playground, so they're gonna give it all they've got!

(Pierre) They're desperate, so they're going to try to do everything in 40 days.

(Joe) What you do is you create such a mess, you set a fire just before you leave, and then leave Trump to deal with it.

(L) Yeah...

(Joe) And it's not something he can deal with. It sounds more like with sending the weapons like MANPADs to the jihadi nutjobs, if they start shooting down Russian and Syrian planes... If they did that, well then...

13 June 2015

Does Iran have a nuclear bomb?

A: Of course!

16 July 2007

(Joe) Is an attack on Iran imminent?

A: They are trying to move in that direction. More likely to be a false flag attack in US and UK and France and possibly Russia to garner public support.

Q: (H) That's one heck of a false flag attack! (Joe) Mossad are more than capable. That's really unimaginative. I was hoping for something more... (L) Creative? (H) Hey, it works!

A: It may not...

Q: (Joe) That was I was going to say. There's a danger in doing the same thing over and over again. People will start to not believe it any more. (Galahad) That's where they are caught: in their inability to think creatively. (Joe) It may not, depending on us. (S) Well, I'm all cheered up now. (laughter) (S) Is there any good news at all?!

A: You have this information which the rest of people do not.
 
Bringing the US warships to the ME just makes me think that we could be looking at a Gulf of Tonkin-style false flag attack implicating Iran. Could Russia intervene in the case of a false flag like that?
 
Bringing the US warships to the ME just makes me think that we could be looking at a Gulf of Tonkin-style false flag attack implicating Iran. Could Russia intervene in the case of a false flag like that?

Exactly my thoughts, gut reactions really. Been reading over the last couple of months however, various reports saying that with the latest technology ( warfare wise) warships are really just sitting ducks which can be disabled at the flick of a switch.
 
I suppose that the same thing about possible military action against Venezuela applies to Iran: Trump can't be bothered with that but the snakes whispering in his ears would love to see that happen. However, Trump will be glad to make 'war' against those countries by any other means: economically and politically. There's also the possibility that those snakes find a way to force his hand, for example with the Gulf of Tonkin incident mentioned above. There is a difference with Venezuela though - that Israel has a much stronger interest in seeing Iran fall, so we can expect the pressure on Trump to be more intense in the Iran case.
 
To add, and possibly bring things further in perspective ...

Isreal’s long-term goal of archieving unchallenged regional hegemony, eliminating independent governments in Syria, Iran and Lebanon, balkanizing area’s for easier control has failed spectacular.

Their geopolitical chess pieces by now, IS and it’s affiliates should have been at the gates of Tehran. Instead, like we know, Russia intervened and they find their number 1 rival, Iran positioning itself within Syria and even near the borders of the Golan Heights.

The whole situation took a 180 degree turn and now the Isrealis find the players they wished to eliminate at their own borders.

Though, Isreal does not have to worry, as it is Russia who will decide to outcome. Syria, Iran and Hezbollah won’t take take back the Golan Heights or start a land invasion. (OSIT) The reason for this is quite simple, they already won and any further escalations are simply not worth it. Putin, literally from childhood experience knows that a rat cornered with nowhere to run will blindly attack you. And that’s exactly what Isreal is. A rat cornered. (A rat with nuclear weapons)

The long game (Silk Road/ Eurasian integration) Putin and his allies are playing is the most safe one with the the least amount of casualties and innocent lives lost. The Empire will crumble, a multipolar world will emerge and the imperialists will have to take their loses.

Having said that, I don’t believe the psycho’s are capable of accepting a post imperialism world. In order to turn the tide, I'm afraid that at some point they might do something incredible reckless.


Thanks for bringing those particular sessions up Oxajil, I found the following striking as it might lead to an interesting outcome?

16 July 2007

(Joe) Is an attack on Iran imminent?

A: They are trying to move in that direction. More likely to be a false flag attack in US and UK and France and possibly Russia to garner public support.

Q: (H) That's one heck of a false flag attack! (Joe) Mossad are more than capable. That's really unimaginative. I was hoping for something more... (L) Creative? (H) Hey, it works!

A: It may not...

Q: (Joe) That was I was going to say. There's a danger in doing the same thing over and over again. People will start to not believe it any more. (Galahad) That's where they are caught: in their inability to think creatively. (Joe) It may not, depending on us. (S) Well, I'm all cheered up now. (laughter) (S) Is there any good news at all?!

A: You have this information which the rest of people do not.

Why also a false flag in Russia? Because they honestly expect that Putin will play along with their narrative, sing their song and ditch Iran as his ally? (Because Iran was somehow involved in this attack)

I think Putin might expose their whole false flag reality when that happens and will leave it to the rest of the World to pick a side. Perhaps the majority won’t accept it, but as Putin once said: Sometimes it is necessary to be lonely in order to prove that you are right.

The more desperate and reckless the PTB get, the more they might expose themselves. OSIT.
 
Why also a false flag in Russia?

So far, the US has gone from "verbal attacks - to heavily sanctioning Iran - and now physically provoking Iran" by sending in ships and more Patriot missiles? The stage is set for a confrontation? Cocky bullheaded Pompeo is scheduled to meet Putin and Lavrov on Tuesday. No doubt, Pompeo plans on putting both of them "in their place" and on notice - that the US is running the show? I can envision, Pompeo twisting facts and misquoting statements made at the meeting, just to put Lavrov and Putin on the spot and reduce any chances for another Putin-Trump meeting in the near future? Then again, maybe Putin will "lay down the LAW" and Pompeo won't have any room to wiggle?


Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan has approved a new deployment of Patriot missiles to the Middle East, a U.S. official told Reuters on Friday, in the latest U.S. response to what Washington sees as a growing threat from Iran.

Exclusive: Eyeing Iran, U.S. sending more Patriot missiles to Middle East
FILE PHOTO: Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan testifies before a House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing on the  Department of Defense - FY2020 Budget request on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., May 1, 2019. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo

The decision further bolsters U.S. defenses and comes after the Trump administration expedited the deployment of a carrier strike group and sent bombers to the Middle East following what it said were troubling indications of possible preparations for an attack by Iran.

The U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, declined to say how many Patriot batteries would be deployed. The Patriot missile defense system is made by Raytheon Co. and is designed to intercept incoming missiles.

The decision to send Patriot missiles to the region would mark a reversal of sorts, coming just months after the Pentagon removed several Patriot batteries from the Middle East.

Last year, officials described the withdrawal of the Patriots as part of a broader effort to adjust U.S. military deployments globally, as the Pentagon sought to prioritize military challenges from Russia and China.

U.S. warns merchant ships of possible Iranian attacks; cleric threatens U.S. fleet
Iran could target U.S. commercial ships including oil tankers, the U.S. Maritime Administration said on Friday, as a senior Iranian cleric said a U.S Navy fleet could be "destroyed with one missile."

U.S. B-52 bombers reach Middle East in message to Iran
The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln transits the Suez Canal in Egypt, May 9, 2019. Dan Snow/U.S. Navy/Handout via REUTERS

American B-52 Stratofortress bombers sent to the Middle East over what Washington describes as threats from Iran have arrived at a U.S. base in Qatar, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said.

Exclusive: U.S. commander says he could send carrier into Strait of Hormuz despite Iran tensions
U.S. aircraft carrier the USS Abraham Lincoln is pictured while it travels through the Suez Canal in Egypt May 9, 2019 in this picture obtained from social media. Bud Kinsey/via REUTERS

The commander overseeing U.S. naval forces in the Middle East told Reuters on Thursday that American intelligence showing a threat from Iran will not prevent him from sending an aircraft carrier through the vital Strait of Hormuz, if needed.

Trump urges Iran to talk over nuclear program, cannot rule out military action
FILE PHOTO - U.S. President Donald Trump responds to questions from reporters after an event centered on a proposal to end surprise medical billing in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 9, 2019. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday urged Iran's leadership to sit down and talk with him about giving up Tehran's nuclear program and said he could not rule out a military confrontation given the heightened tensions between the two countries.

U.S. targets Iran's metals for sanctions, Tehran relaxes nuclear deal compliance
U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday imposed new sanctions on Iran, targeting revenue from its exports of industrial metals, the latest salvo in tensions between Washington and Tehran over a 2015 international accord curbing the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.

Iran says it wants to bring nuclear deal back on track, strengthen it
Iran wants to bring its nuclear deal with world powers "back on track" after the U.S. unilateral withdrawal, the spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said on Thursday, a day after Tehran said it was scaling back curbs to its nuclear program.

China opposes unilateral U.S. sanctions on Iran, commerce ministry says
China opposes unilateral U.S. sanctions against Iran, and curbs on its oil will only worsen volatility in global energy markets, the commerce ministry said on Thursday.

Pompeo to raise 'aggressive, destabilizing' Russian actions with Putin, Lavrov
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo boards a plane before departing from London Stansted Airport, north of London, Britain May 9, 2019. Mandel Ngan/Pool via REUTERS

Mike Pompeo will make his first trip to Russia as U.S. secretary of state next week for talks with President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on "aggressive and destabilizing action" Moscow has taken around the world, a senior State Department official said on Friday.

Iran says EU should uphold nuclear deal obligations, normalize economic ties: Zarif on Twitter
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (not pictured) and his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif attend a news conference in Moscow, Russia May 8, 2019. REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina

EU countries should uphold their obligations in the nuclear deal with Iran and normalize economic ties despite U.S. sanctions, its foreign minister said on Thursday, in reaction to an EU statement that asked Tehran to remain committed to the accord.

EU wants to avoid escalation of Iran dispute - Merkel
The European Union wants to avoid an escalation in the dispute about Iran's nuclear program, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday, adding that Tehran must recognize that it is in its own interests to remain committed to the nuclear deal.

China and India seen as Europe's last hope to save Iran deal
The European Union will defend the Iran nuclear accord despite Tehran's decision to backtrack on its commitments in response to U.S. sanctions, diplomats believe, but European powers expect it to collapse without a deal to sell Iranian oil to China or India.
 
So far, the US has gone from "verbal attacks - to heavily sanctioning Iran - and now physically provoking Iran" by sending in ships and more Patriot missiles? The stage is set for a confrontation?

That’s the message they wish to convey, but they won’t push through with it.

Military prowess projects power and intimidates. As soon as American fighter jets are shot out of the sky on a large scale, the American empire loses its persuasiveness to place its will on the rest of the world. The invincible and most powerful nation on earth as it often calls itself then turns into a paper tiger. They cannot afford this loss of face. America only bombs defenseless countries. Russia, China and Iran have the military capability to strike back hard.

At this point the US takes refuge in intimidating the world, because that is the only option left. Short on 'soft power', the only thing it has left on its downward trajectory, and by which it can get attention, is explicit threats of violence or other punitive measures.

For this reason, I’m not expecting a Gulf of Tonkin incident.

But a USS Liberty incident seems likely at some point. (The USS Liberty incident was a false flag attack on a United States Navy technical research ship, USS Liberty, by Israeli Air Force jet fighter aircraft and Israeli Navy motor torpedo boats, on 8 June 1967, during the Six-Day War)

At some point, Isreal might try to drag the US into a war against Iran, whether that means unacceptable loses for the US is a non-issue for them. If there is a possibility it might destroy Iran, they might be willing to gamble on it.

Cocky bullheaded Pompeo is scheduled to meet Putin and Lavrov on Tuesday. No doubt, Pompeo plans on putting both of them "in their place" and on notice - that the US is running the show? I can envision, Pompeo twisting facts and misquoting statements made at the meeting, just to put Lavrov and Putin on the spot and reduce any chances for another Putin-Trump meeting in the near future? Then again, maybe Putin will "lay down the LAW" and Pompeo won't have any room to wiggle?

Pompeo doesn’t call the shots and is a deep state hack. The US might think they run the show in the Middle East. Russia’s victory in Syria tells otherwise. The US will keep trying to isolate Iran economically and military to weaken it from within in an attempt to destabilize the country and open it up for a coup. Since that’s the only real option they have at this point.

Though the US only seems to mainly isolate itself with their stand on Iran. They are threatening ‘’friends’’ (vassals) and foe’s alike with scantions to get their way. Some European countries seem to be fed up with this, especially Germany. Although it’s protest are only verbally at this point. Still, this is how defiance starts. (Cracks in the Empire)

Iran is the real winner here.

OSIT.
 
Israel has warned the US that Iran is contemplating targeting Saudi oil production facilities, an Israeli TV report said Friday night, as tensions between Tehran and the Trump Administration soar.

The unsourced Channel 13 report said the Iranians were “considering various aggressive acts” against American or American-allied targets. Tehran had looked at targeting American bases in the Gulf, but that had been deemed too drastic. The main target they were interested in was “Saudi oil production facilities,” the TV report said. Such a strike would also send world oil prices soaring and enable Iran to get more income from its oil sales, the report added.

Channel 13 also quoted unnamed Arab intelligence sources saying there was a debate raging in the Iranian leadership about striking US and US-allied targets, with some in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps pushing for attacks, including against Israeli targets, while others cautioned that it would be “suicidal” to get into serious military conflict with the US.

The Channel 13 report came four days after the same TV channel first reported that the Israeli Mossad had tipped off the White House two weeks ago about an Iranian plan to attack either a US or US-allied target. That earlier report did not specify potential targets for such an ostensible attack.

The Israeli intel was conveyed by an Israeli delegation led by National Security Council head Meir Ben-Shabbat, which met with American intelligence officials at the White House late last month, the May 6 TV report said.

“It is still unclear to us what the Iranians are trying to do and how they are planning to do it, but it is clear to us that the Iranian temperature is on the rise as a result of the growing US pressure campaign against them, and they are considering retaliating against US interests in the Gulf,” an official was quoted as saying.

Channel 13’s military analyst Alon Ben-David said Friday that the Iranians might be “underestimating American determination” to defend US interests. “In Israel, there is an assessment that the prospect of confrontation between the US and Iran is growing — because the US is ready to respond harshly to any attack” including on Saudi Arabia, he said.

Ultimately, he added, the decision on whether to attack US and US-allied targets would rest with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had on Thursday threatened a “swift and decisive” US response to any attack by Iran, in the latest of a series of escalating statements and actions.

“The regime in Tehran should understand that any attacks by them or their proxies of any identity against US interests or citizens will be answered with a swift and decisive US response,” Pompeo said in a statement.

“Our restraint to this point should not be mistaken by Iran for a lack of resolve,” he said.

The Pentagon said Friday that the US would move a Patriot missile battery into the Middle East region to counter threats from Iran.

The department provided no details, but a defense official said the move comes after intelligence showed that the Iranians have loaded military equipment and missiles onto small boats.

Also on Friday, the US Maritime Administration warned that Iran could try to attack American commercial vessels, including oil tankers, Reuters reported.

US officials announced Sunday that they would rush an aircraft carrier strike group and nuclear-capable bombers to the region.

The United States had already announced the deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group and nuclear-capable bombers to the region, saying it had information of plans for Iranian-backed attacks.

An American official said the decision to send in more forces was based in part on intelligence indicating that Iran had moved short-range ballistic missiles by boat in waters off its shores.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said it was not clear whether the boats with missiles represented a new military capability that could be used against US forces or were only being moved to shore locations.

The moves have frightened some European allies as well as President Donald Trump’s Democratic rivals, who fear the administration is pushing for war based on overhyped intelligence.

Pompeo, who earlier canceled a trip to Greenland to rush back to Washington, however said: “We do not seek war.”

“But Iran’s 40 years of killing American soldiers, attacking American facilities, and taking American hostages is a constant reminder that we must defend ourselves,” said Pompeo, referencing the 1979 Islamic revolution that transformed Iran from close US ally to sworn foe.

Meanwhile Vice Admiral Jim Malloy, commander of the United States Naval Forces Central Command, told Reuters he would bring the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln through the Gulf’s sensitive Strait of Hormuz if need be.

“If I need to bring it inside the strait, I will do so,” Malloy said. “I’m not restricted in any way, I’m not challenged in any way, to operate her anywhere in the Middle East.”

Iran on Wednesday said it would suspend some commitments under a 2015 nuclear accord rejected by Trump, frustrated that renewed US sanctions have prevented the country from enjoying the economic fruits of compliance with the deal.

Earlier Thursday, Trump said he sought talks with Iran.

“What I would like to see with Iran, I would like to see them call me,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We don’t want them to have nuclear weapons — not much to ask.”

Trump also said Washington was not looking for a conflict with Tehran, but refused to divulge why the carrier had been dispatched.

“We have information that you don’t want to know about,” Trump said, according to Reuters. “They were very threatening and we have to have great security for this country and many other places.”

Asked about the possibility of a military confrontation, he said “I don’t want to say no, but hopefully that won’t happen,”




Update:
Fox News
Iran threatens U.S. fleet with 'dozens of missiles' if they attempt a move
Published on May 11, 2019 / 6:37
 
Last edited:
Still no real conformation on the attack on a Saudi oil facility at this time.



Saudi Arabia Makes Friends With an Old Enemy
May 9, 2019, 6:01 AM 9-11 minute Read:
By Abbas Al Lawati and Donna Abu-Nasr
The rapprochement with Iraq is timely for the Saudis in the power struggle against their Middle East rival.


 
Russia, advised the Iranians to not scrap the nuclear deal because of the new US bullying sanctions, while urging European countries to not bow down to US dictates but to fullfill their obligations.

This could be a a win for Iran, as it should give Europeans the choose whether to be obedience to US dictates or to defy thier master and act in favor of it's own sovereignty and normalize economic relationships with Iran.

Russia urges EU to defy US pressure & maintain ties with Tehran, vows to continue joint projects

Moscow will see through joint projects with Tehran despite mounting pressure from Washington, the Russian Foreign Ministry has said, urging European countries to maintain ties with Iran and abide by the nuclear deal.

The recent decision of Tehran to suspend some of its obligations under the landmark agreement – officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – is “understandable,” given the US’ hostile actions against the country, the ministry said in a statement on Thursday. The move is perfectly legal, as the agreement allows the country walk away from some of its obligations if other signees do not stick to the deal.

At the same time Moscow, warned Tehran against making further steps towards scrapping the deal altogether, while urging “other participating countries” – basically, European ones – to fulfill their obligations.


On Wednesday, Iran reduced its obligations under the deal and vowed to take further steps on uranium enrichment in 60 days if the EU does not act to help its banking and oil sectors. The European Union, however, has already branded Tehran's move as an “ultimatum” and promised to “assess Iran's compliance” with the deal.

Russia itself is looking forward to continuing works on joint projects with Iran, including in the nuclear energy sphere, the ministry said. The projects include the ongoing construction of the nuclear power plant in Bushehr, as well as refurbishment of the Fordow uranium enrichment plant.

Moscow condemned the new batch of US sanctions against Iran, that targeted its metallurgy sector, urging “other countries” to maintain economic ties and trade with Tehran despite the pressure.

A similar statement was issued by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who called upon the EU to uphold its obligations instead of just pressing the country into compliance with the agreement.

“Instead of demanding that Iran unilaterally abide by a multilateral accord, the EU should uphold obligations – including normalization of economic ties,” Iran's top diplomat tweeted.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top Bottom