It no longer seems like the ravings of a madman: the threat of a new civil war is growing in the United States, — The Guardian
22.08.2022 - 4:00
Distrust of democratic institutions is growing within American society. Moreover, many citizens buy weapons and admit that they are ready to use them against their political opponents. According to experts, all this indicates that the country is on the verge of a new internal conflict, the Guardian writes.
Earlier, Dr. Garen Wintemute, who founded the Center for the study of gun violence in California, laughed at warnings about the coming civil war in America, calling them "the ravings of a madman." writes, writes the Guardian.
Wintemute has long noticed that Americans are actively stocking up on weapons before the presidential election. Usually, after the vote, this excitement weakened, but not this time.
"2020," writes The Guardian. — We knew that, unlike previous bursts, this one does not end. People are still buying guns like crazy."
The expert wanted answers, and they stunned him. A survey conducted by the Wintemute Center showed that half of Americans expect a civil war in the United States in the next few years.
According to the study, one in five Americans believes that political violence is justified in some circumstances. In addition, about 40% said they were ready to sacrifice democracy in order to get a strong leader at the head of state.
"Combined with previous research, these results indicate a continuing alienation and distrust of American democratic society and its institutions. Significant minorities of the population approve of violence, including fatal ones, in order to achieve political goals," the authors of the report conclude.
Wintemute notes that many respondents expecting a civil war say that it is only "partly likely." But the fact that half of the population is considering such a possibility at all indicates a decline in the confidence of a large number of Americans in the existing state system, which is "under attack from Donald Trump and a significant part of the Republican Party," the Guardian believes.
A search conducted by the FBI at Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence earlier this month triggered another flurry of threats of violence against officials. Florida Senator Rick Scott compared the agency to the Gestapo. Police have killed a US Navy veteran who attacked the bureau's office in Ohio. A Pennsylvania resident was accused of threatening to "stab" federal agents, whom he called "scum of the police state" and compared with SS men, the publication draws attention.
A few days after the Mar-a-Lago search, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security reported a surge in threats of violence against federal agents, their families and the judge who issued the search warrant. The Bureau said that among them were calls for "civil war" and "armed uprising."
Election commission workers also began receiving threats after Trump accused the Democrats of rigging the 2020 elections. There has also been a sharp increase in cases of intimidation of other civil servants — from school board members and librarians to politicians.
According to Wintemute, the surge in violent threats is compounded by an increase in gun sales. "What happens when you take a society that is increasingly afraid for its future, becomes more polarized, more angry at yourself, and add a bunch of weapons to this cocktail?" he asks rhetorically.
Many Americans shudder when talking about the civil war, which has become the bloodiest in the history of the country. But Rachel Kleinfeld, a specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, does not rule out that a new internal conflict may shake the United States.
"Now I am most concerned about the poll, which shows that from 20% to 40% of Americans would like the country to be led by a strong leader who is not obliged to follow democratic rules. This will allow institutions to weaken, and an insurgency similar to the troubles in Northern Ireland may break out," she suggested in an interview with The Guardian.
A detailed analysis of the survey gives a more complex picture. But even so, according to Kleinfeld, the results are alarming. "You see 3 to 5 million Americans ready to harm other Americans for their political beliefs," she said.
The United States has a long history of political violence and murder. But now the biggest threat to stability comes from within the power structure, including Republicans, "undermining the electoral system and further weakening confidence in democracy," the publication claims.
In Kleinfeld's opinion, a study by the Wintemute Center shows that the American people are very tired of democracy. But at the same time, according to her, it is the Republicans who believe that they can get away with violence against opponents, "which is normalized by their leaders."
Trump "welcomed with open arms" groups of white nationalists, "Proud Boys" and Oath Keepers. As a result, the armed formations became part of big politics, which helped their participants to penetrate the power structures, the publication draws attention to.
In December, three retired American generals said that "Trumpism infected part of the armed forces," and noted that an "alarming number of veterans and active military personnel" participated in the attack on the Capitol. They warned of possible "deadly chaos" inside the US army if the results of the 2024 presidential election are challenged, the Guardian recalls.
"This really feels like a turning point in American democracy,— writer Liliana Mason told the publication. — We will probably see even more violence. I don't think it will decrease in the near future. But ultimately, how Americans react to this violence will determine whether it can be calmed or it will get out of control."
Kleinfeld also looks to the future without optimism.
"We are approaching a point where if the Trump faction wins, then I think we will see a sustained extremely high level of violence in the foreseeable future. And if she loses, then, in my opinion, everything will be even worse," the expert said.
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