Prior to the SMO and until very recently it was "known" or understood that Prigozhin has a good contact and relations with Putin. Sure, many took all his criticisms (toward MoD and Shoigu) at face value, but many others (including myself) saw it as as some sort of performance. That Prigozhin wouldn't dare or wouldn't be allowed to go that far without any back up from Putin.
It wasn't possible to know exactly what was going on or planned, but what is known that there are many objective problems and Prigozhin isn't wrong about a lot of what he is saying. There are indeed problems and corruption in the MoD and managing of the military/SMO in general. So it did look like a part of some sort of gradual preparation for the change at the top. Not talking about Shoigu, though most of the criticism was directed toward him, but not only toward him.
There are various talks about change of the elites and others in power. Svetlana Dragan also mentioned this in her forcasts. This is something that requires a slow and smart game with actions at the right moments, but there is also a need for a preparation and creation of specific crisis points that would allow such changes to occure. And so my impression was that Prigozhin was playing the role of such a crisis catalist.
But then his criticisms become more and more loud, overt and crass. It still looked like he was following some sort of scenario, because otherwise it's unclear how his public tantrums could be tolerated. Even Khazin said during one of his interviews that he knows Prigozhin personally and that he is "an extremely pragmatic and sober person. And if he's making these kinds of tantrums, it means he's embedded in some political projects."
Considering all that, and prior to Putin's statement, my working theory was that this was the moment of such crisis catalization. In one of her recent videos Dragan said that the processes of power/elite change are already underway, but they are still largely behind the scenes. And it's logical that it's a long process that happens mostly behind the curtain. Supposedly the second half of the year and the first half of the next year will be rocky (in various degrees) to those in power and that we should expect changes. So when I saw what Prigozhin did, my thought was that this was one of the first overt acts. But still backed up by Putin.
The main flaw in my theory was to forget that Putin is a "lawful good" character (to use D&D parlance) and any kind of mutiny/revenge/justice (like Prigozhin called it) will not be tolerated or acceptable. But it was still confusing, because Wagner's entrance to Rostov wasn't violent. I was listening to one analyst who was doing a stream when events unfolded, and he said that Wagner move reminded him of "Crimea Spring". When "green polite men" entered Crimea and their entrance eventually led to a bloodless change of power. That's why this move by Wagner, albeit very surprising, didn't look like a coup.
Now, after Putin gave his statement, it is pretty clear that Prigozhin's move is being condemned. But I also find it hard to believe any theory that speaks about Prigozhin being a traitor. That he was pro-West or pro-Ukraine all along. One would need solid arguments to show that this is so. The fact that Chodorkovsky expressed his support of Prigozhin just means that his handlers have an interest of discrediting Prigozhin even further.
But it is possible that Prigozhin was indeed fulfilling a role and playing out a scenario that wasn't ordered by Putin, although backed up by Putin in general. Maybe a more nationalistic "total war" (including tactical nuclear warheads) faction provided Prigozhin with backup that provided him with the uber gusto. Don't know. It's hard to understand what is going on for sure because his tantrums, albeit containing real facts, always had a flavor of being a show of some sorts.
And there is also
the following information. There is a lady on Telegram called Olga. Supposedly she has an ability to get insight about specific situation or a person by "reading" the information field. She has a lot of examples of such readings on her channel, and many of them make sense and sound true, while others are more questionable. So take this info with a grain of salt. I am adding it here because it makes sense and also correlates with Dragan's predictions. And then later, if more information comes to light, it will also be an opportunity to check her reading ability.
Energy in Russia is quite hot, but not critically, especially in the South, in the Center and, for some reason, in the Far East (Sakhalin region).
VVP (Putin) extremely condemns the actions of EP (Prigozhin), there is information that it is not what was supposed to happen and not in such a way. Some kind of plan, the order of things has been violated. He is very unhappy. It is unacceptable.
There was a group of people at the very top who initially knew and supported the demarche, now they are stepping aside from EP, as if to raise their hands - I had nothing to do with it. There are 3 people there. The highest level. It turned out that they used EP unwittingly.
EP himself is not an easy man. His task is to burst the bubble, in which the "parquetry generals", as the president rightly pointed out, "are lounging". These are illusions that are created by the MoD so that their "sweet life" system continues to function as before and nothing changes. Does he have the task of regime change-the answer is-no. Is he affiliated with the globalists - no. Does he have any personal interest and ambitions, yes.
Moscow. There is a lot of anxiety at the top. Those on the thrones are confused and frightened, though they think the "rebellion" will be put down. But tensions are high. They do not know how to play the game.
There is a feel as if birds begin to take off from the ground, what kind of birds they are - airplanes, private planes, they're heading West "away from harm". They fly home to their own place, where their heart is.
Which is good. Mobilization has come to the top. The viscous swamp is in motion. One can literally feel the hatred of EP - who asked you, why did you overreact, it was so peaceful.
Many will reconsider their positions on Russia. Not all of them are cynics and unprincipled people.
The possibility of a "hot phase" in Moscow is present, but it won't affect ordinary people in any way.
If EP used to be part of one of the ruling forces, now it is a force in its own right.
We hope for the wisdom of VVP. But he will definitely not turn on the back. He is angry. Very angry.
