Putin Recognizes Donbass Republics, Sends Russian Military to 'Denazify' Ukraine

From what you write about him being a Prig fanboy, then it is good that he is not piling on accusations on the Russian government.
Since he was granted political asylum and has been living out of the Russian consulate in Sydney, he's become noticeably more thoughtful and nuanced about his views on various situations, so I suspect that networking with the consulate staff is doing him a lot of good. 😄
 
There was an "exchange of pleasantries". Yesterday, Rybar reported the destruction of the Russian S-300 complex in the Crimea.

Звинчук: ВСУ атаковали мыс Тарханкут тремя противокорабельными ракетами

Today they report the destruction of the air defense division of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Nikolaev.

Ударом российских Су-34 уничтожен целый дивизион ЗРК С-300 украинской армии

The following two news items look particularly revealing next to each other. Using ancient wisdom: the enemy of my enemy is my friend; it is possible to draw appropriate conclusions.

Великобритания в ближайшие недели признает ЧВК "Вагнер" террористической организацией


Террористы объявили джихад против ЧВК "Вагнер" по всему миру

Произошел " обмен любезностями". Вчера Рыбарь сообщил об уничтожении Российского комплекса С-300 в Крыму.
Сегодня сообщают об уничтожении дивизиона ПВО ВСУ возле Николаева.
Следующие две новости особенно показательно смотрятся рядом. Пользуясь древней мудростью: враг моего врага- мой друг; можно сделать соответствующие выводы.
And thats why Prigozhin, as a prominent Wagner figure had to die. It is now easier to deal with Wagner in Africa. Main oponent and danger to the West in Africa is not Niger's army, but Wagner, especially being the long arm (but not official, thats important) of Russia. So, this is probably preparing the terrain for intervention in Niger (Mali and Burkina Faso) and decimating of Wagner force there.

Ecowas countries are not capable of intervention (or not that fast), so it would be caried out by France, Britain (the two are already arriving in Morocco) and the US. In that way it is avoided intervention on Niger's side by Algier and Egypt, because there are no Ecowas countries involved, and Algier and Egypt will not go against France or Britain.

Russia have two ways in Africa now. To send someone new for Wagner in Africa, together with more people, arms and equipment. Which would mean real war with NATO in Africa (and NATO will use Ecowas as they are using Ukraine now). Or to give up and just let Wagner to do what they can (and they couldnt do much without the air superiority which be on NATO side and they will use it).
 
So, this is probably preparing the terrain for intervention in Niger (Mali and Burkina Faso) and decimating of Wagner force there.
I think you are ascribing too much power to Wagner apart from thinking that Wagner in Africa will crumble without Prig alive. According to this article about Wagner, then there are about 5000 Wagner soldiers across the African continent. In the attack on Bakhmut, there were around 50.000 Wagner soldiers from what I remember. So the contingent on the whole of the African continent is 10% of that.

I don't think that Wagner in Africa is what is holding back the Western intervention, but rather the rapidly growing anti-Western sentiments which seem to only be growing as an alternative to the neo-colonial ruled based order, is gaining in strength.
 
I think it is unlikely that the crash was due to a simple malfunction due to poor maintenance. Crashes out of cruise altitude are very rare.

While Embraer might have abided to the sanctions, it would have been easy for Prig to fly anywhere in the world to get parts or due regular maintenance. Embraer would have many maintenance facilities in Africa and the Middle East. And if you live ‘on the edge’ as Prig did, you don’t fly around in a jet that is not airworthy. Apart from that, Embraer jets are very safe - to my knowledge there is only one other recorded crash of the type Prig was using.

Also the crash didn’t look like a simple malfunction - the engines were still running as the plane was tumbling down, it was still intact at first and only broke up a lower altitude (that is, the tail separated from the fuselage). There was also smoke and fire on board, and if you look at one of the videos, a ’contrail’ of sorts can be seem at a higher altitude. Granted, it is a relatively busy airspace, but this looks more like a part of the aircraft burning at a higher level.

To my mind, this all points to an explosion on board of the aircraft, maybe several, which destabilized/ incapacitated the plane enough for it to go down. The amount of explosives needed might be relatively small - enough to explosively decompress the cabin and destabilise normal flight.

One has to bear in mind that an airwing stalls not only at low airspeeds, but also at very high airspeeds - and the higher the plane flies, the closer together these two stall speeds move (which effectively determines service ceiling). Which again means that at high flight levels, where high-speed and low-speed stall are relatively close together, the plane becomes unstable (stalled) much more easily.

As to the perp - I am 50:50, too. Too early to tell, and maybe we won’t ever find out.

What a saga!
 
I can agree about Wagner, but I dont think that the West is holding back because of anti-Western sentiments. West doesnt seem to pay attention on it so far.

Wagner's strenght in Africa is not in numbers, but in ability to send Britain's, France or US soldiers home in body bags, in greater numbers that Niger army can do it.
 
One thing this has done is reinstated Putin as the hardman who demands those he gives trust to, to toe the line.

I don't think he cares what West think because they aren't going to think anything new that they aren't thinking already.

I expect removing this Prig guy is to ensure the progression of the vision he has without having some rogue cult-like figure disrupt it.

Is it cruel?

I'd say undoubtedly so but the business here is one of life and death and Prig only met the same fate he has handed out to countless others. This is the currency of their business I suppose.

What about the collateral damage?

I'd say this is the saddest part of this whole affair. The pilots and service people on the flight lost their lives by association to Prig.

It goes to show a cruel fact of reality - not all lives are made equal. ☹️ The desire to end Prigs life was greater than the need to preserve the lives of these other handful of service personnel who due to their status are deemed non-important and disposable in light of the primary aims. How can it be otherwise? The actions speak to this.

I think that is the saddest part of this and serves as a reminder that no matter how important we think we are in our personal lives, we can be as easily disposable as well if we find ourselves in the wrong associations, even as innocent bystanders.
 
Unconfirmed, but it would explain a probable vector of access to the plane for a bomb installation.


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My first hunch was that this seems somewhat out of character for Putin. We know he can be ruthless if need be, but he's such a stickler to procedure, rule of law etc., and this all seems a bit sneaky for him (potentially needlessly killing innocents too). Also, those inside Russia aligned with the ultra-"patriots" can claim it was a cowardly intel operation instead of dealing with him openly, or even that Putin was unaware and they did it behind Putin's back and so on, painting him as weak.

There's also this from Simplicius (take it with a grain of salt):

Today, Putin was—somewhat symbolically—doing a grand unveiling for a Kursk memorial for the anniversary of the battle’s end on August 23, 1943, as well as awarding SMO servicemen:
...
Afterwards, he reportedly flew back to Moscow, with his cortege spotted being rushed back to the Kremlin, presumably for an emergency meeting about ongoing events:

On the other hand, in this piece Simplicius also points out how

...we must remember that Putin and Russia have no qualms—when absolutely necessary—about launching major operations with potentially “bad optics” during significant summits. For instance, the Georgian 2008 war on 8/8/8 was launched as Putin was sitting with Hu Jintao in Beijing watching the opening ceremony of the 2008 Summer Olympics.
...
That’s to say that Putin is not necessarily above doing what must be done during ‘sensitive’ events or time periods. If it defends Russia’s interests, he doesn’t care that it ruins the optics or casts a bad light on some pageant.

But perhaps it all really is that simple: Prig became a problem again even though he was shown mercy and warned multiple times, and now they dealt with it. I guess we'll find out.
 
This crash certainly supports the “Putins a ruthless murderer” Neocon propaganda shrill screaming point that was witnessed by Nikki Haley’s mean bitchy-faced ranting in the republican debates last night. IOW, CIA involvement is always one of the cards in the deck.
 
My first hunch was that this seems somewhat out of character for Putin.

That was my first impression as well. And was thinking what would it take for him to make such decision, with the information available to us (as little as it is). And also think that maybe Prigo and/or Wagner leadership had become an active threat (a traitor essentially), before and even after the June incident, and taking him out represents a short term problem but a long term benefit?

Though I am not entirely sold to the idea so far.
 
Adding to what Luc said above, this Simplicius substack goes through all, or close to all the approaches discussed above. ziutek saying maybe a cosmic intervention exceeds even Simplicius' catalogue!

Special Report: The Curtain Closes On Yevgeny Prigozhin

The surprise to me is that Simplicius towards the end of the article recounts such a lack of functionality in the MOD at the beginning of the Operation with slow and careful upgrading and shifting of leadership within the defense forces. It looked like by and large, Russian forces were accomplishing most objectives with a couple exceptions, and being very effective.

Otherwise, he (likely he?), Simplicius considers the possibility of Prig being alive, along with his two closest organizers.

Well, that's probably how it is in most cases.
We bring misery upon ourselves.
I don't know why but somehow I feel that Prig is alive.
I share ziutek's 'I don't know why but somehow I feel that Prig is alive.' For me it's a sense of energetic continuation I get for Prig, but that's not a lot to go by...!!

Simplicius writes, "As Putin once said to a reporter, “I’m not your friend, I’m the president of Russia.” Russia is an assassin candidate amongst others.

I like Simplicius' assessment or Prig.

"Prigozhin, by my accounting, was a charismatic and likable figure. Because, while being an inordinately rich billionaire, he successfully depicted himself as a ‘common man’, the redeemed folk hero type as above, a sort of freedom fighter against the myriad corruptions and ills of the modern world. He was a witty showman and had a good feel for what the sodden masses hungered for, which made him appealing. But like certain hucksters—for instance, more recently Andrew Tate—he had a knack for concealing his personal interests behind clever “populist” facades. As long as you give people 70% of what they want to hear, the 30% graft can be easily masked away with a street magician’s sleight-of-hand.

Maybe, ultimately, he wasn’t even a bad man—I’m not necessarily saying he was, or that his disputes with the Russian MOD were out of malice. Perhaps it’s even understandable that a man who built his own empire should be expected to fiercely defend it in the way he did.
"

Finally, it makes more sense to me that NATO and Ukraine were the most likely of all the possible assassins, with Russian co-conspirators, an effort to achieve regime change from within, angering people in Russia who like Prig. It would be hard to come up with any other scenario outside those of Simplicius, except for something cosmic happening, as ziutek wrote above.
 
Entire Wagner Leadership dead: all military top commanders behind Prigozhin broke security protocol and traveled on a single plane and they are now dead: full top personnel demise is according to rumors.

During the Prigozhin Insurrection these were the roughly quoted words of military veteran & expert Andrei Martyanov:
So, don't be surprised if a totally unexpected fatal accident happens to Great Wagner Cult Leader War Hero Prigozhin in the near future.. Because his Wagner Thugs shot down several Russian Air Force units killing pilots and crew, and as a result, the Russian Armed Forces will NEVER forgive him for this crime!

Today Andrei writes:
When speaking about Prigozhin's death. Two facts:

1. Wagner's "effectiveness" was primarily a figment of imagination and PR by... Prigozhin bought media. Wagner losses, especially among former prisoners of law, have been appalling.

2. Bakhmut affair which was in effect a PR move by Wagner and their "council of commanders" which completely f**ked up Russia's MoD plans and forced it to support Wagner.

Now, ask yourself a question, especially against the fact of Prigozhin and Wagner being in fact a totalitarian sect, which also started the mutiny--how much longer could this org be allowed to exist in any state, AND how many people had some serious accounts to settle with Prigozhin and his military enablers from this "council".

The new Ukrainian Army of Dead:
Prepare yourself to see on TV: to this day already 40,000 to 50,000 amputee Ukrainian veterans were created during the war.

Ukraine prepares to open a new cemetery for 600,000 soldiers. How many people live in your city? Mine is populated by 18,000 people... :shock: :-(:cry::-(
 
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