During the battle for Avdiivka, Russian forces managed to gain a foothold near the railroad track northwest of Krasnogorovka on the northern flank. The fighters also managed to push through the AFU defense south of Veseloye. To the south of the city, the AFU are advancing in the vicinity of the fortification near Tsarskaya Okhota. Despite fruitless attempts at counterattacks by the enemy, Russian troops are gradually tightening the "pincers" around Avdeevka, which is becoming increasingly difficult to defend.
In the Kherson direction, the RF Armed Forces pushed back the Ukrainian formations to the center of Krynok: earlier the AFU managed to expand the zone of control, but now they are again thrown back to the initial positions. There are no changes in the area of the Antonovskyi bridge: the enemy is equipping new positions on the left bank of the Dnieper near the railroad bridge.
Meanwhile, in the Kupyanskyi section, the Russian Armed Forces were able to advance southwest of Pervomayskoye, clearing out the landings where the enemy had been positioned. At the Vremievsky section, the Russian Armed Forces counterattacked west of Staromayorskoye and eliminated the wedge that the enemy had managed to create some time ago.
Situation on the front line and military operations
Positional fighting continues in the Kupyansk section. Russian units of the "West" group of forces are systematically suppressing the positions of Ukrainian forces near Kupyansk, ensuring the advance of heavy losses. The seeming absence of active events at first glance is deceptive. The Russian Army fighters are squeezing the AFU from their positions on a daily basis, causing more and more reinforcements to be transferred to the city. Over the past few days, the Russian Armed Forces have been able to advance south of Pervomayskoye, clearing important plantations where the enemy had entrenched themselves. This simplifies both further defense at the site and the advance to the west.
The number of casualties is getting higher every day. The number of deserters and refuseniks is growing in the ranks of Ukrainian units, including the recently redeployed 32 and 54 Ombres. Because of this, three reserve battalions have arrived at Kupyansk. At the same time, the supply of the AFU grouping near Kupyansk has been significantly complicated by the destruction by Russian troops of two pontoon-bridge crossings in Kupyansk. It is possible to install new ones, of course, but the engineering fleet is extremely limited, and it is getting smaller with each such strike. At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities have started a new evacuation of settlements due to the active actions of the Russian Armed Forces.
On the Soledar direction the AFU of the Russian Federation near Kleshcheevka continue to repel the reeling of the enemy. The AFU under the cover of bad weather several infantry groups wanted to attack several forward strongholds on the front line, but thanks to the timely detected movement, the enemy's attack was thwarted. Positional fighting is taking place on the outskirts of Kurdyumovka and in the Andreevka area.
In the Donetsk direction, combined units of the Russian army continue to storm the AFU fortifications around Avdeevka. In parallel, the Russian Armed Forces are carrying out tasks to destroy reinforcements withdrawn from other parts of the front. Recall that by October 21 it was possible to complete the task of expanding the bridgehead north of the city with the occupation of the ash dump of the Avdiivka coke plant, by October 26 - to expand the southern "pincers" and the offensive operation on the microdistrict "Khimik".
On the northern flank, the Russian Armed Forces conducted several successful attacks along the railroad northwest of Krasnogorovka, as a result of which Russian troops gained a foothold on the railroad. The Russian Armed Forces also managed to break through the AFU defenses south of Vesyoloye. This was facilitated by control over a tactical height on a spoil heap, which left the Ukrainian formations at a disadvantage. In the east, the Russian Armed Forces leveled the front line along the N20 highway south of Kamenka. At the same time, fighting continues near the stronghold at the Donetsk filtration station.
On the southern flank, Russian units are advancing in the vicinity of the fortification near Tsarskaya Okhota. The AFU formations holding it have been blocked there for many days and are completely cut off from supplies. Similarly, Russian Army assault troops have taken the territory of the former anti-aircraft unit in a semicircle. It is pointless to take it by storm due to the fortified defenses and possible losses. It is much more profitable to hold it without supplies. The Russian Armed Forces achieved the greatest successes over the past 24 hours in the direction of Severnoye, where, as a result of a successful assault along the front, they managed to make significant advances to the Khimik microdistrict and to Severnoye (the village was 1 km away). At the same time, the AFU by combined units of various brigades tried to counterattack both from the side of Pervomayskoye and from the southwestern part of Avdeevka, but the Russian soldiers managed to gain a foothold.
In Zaporizhzhya Region, Ukrainian formations attacked residential houses and infrastructure of Energodar with a swarm of drones. The strikes took place during a regular visit of the IAEA mission to the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. The raid lasted more than half an hour, as a result of which two administrative buildings, a hotel and a multi-story house on Stroiteley Street were damaged, and three drones were shot down.
K A R T O T H O U G H
In the Kherson region, the AFU continues to launch indiscriminate artillery strikes on populated areas on the left bank of the Dnieper. As before, Novaya Kakhovka and Kakhovka, as well as Peschanovka, Golaya Prystan, Hornostaevka, Maslovka, Kardashinka, and Korsunka are under enemy fire. Despite the blows, reconstruction work is underway.
Political developments
On the arrival of F-16s to Ukraine
This night, two trucks carrying two disassembled American F-16 fighter jets entered Ukraine from Poland. As of November 2, five aircraft of this type had already been transported to Ukraine. On the one hand, the delivery of American fighters had been expected for a long time. There was talk of agreeing on the transfer of F-16s back in the summer. But on the other hand, Western countries have been supplying the AFU with what they needed in the amounts that allowed them to support the conflict.
Their appearance now indirectly points to the growing problems of the Ukrainian Air Force in ensuring airspace security. Enemy aircraft are becoming fewer and fewer, and there is nowhere else to replenish them. And so that the Ukrainian Air Force would not be left without airplanes at all thanks to the work of the Air Force, Air Defense Forces and the Black Sea Fleet, deliveries of F-16s have begun. And their primary goal will be to hunt the most dangerous targets for them - MiG-31 and A-50. American fighters can be equipped with various types of air-to-air missiles of the AIM series. The most recent version, the AIM-120D, has a launch range of 180 kilometers.
However, despite more modern equipment and armament than on the old Soviet models, this is conventional equipment (from which there is no need to make some wunderwaffle). Especially since the radiation coming from the F-16 is much more powerful. And this simplifies both the search for the airplanes through the use of the A-50 DRLO aircraft, and their subsequent fire defeat.
A new aid package for the AFU from the FRG
On the website of the Bundeswehr appeared information about the next package of military aid for Ukraine. It includes:
12 armored personnel carriers;
2 TRML-4D airspace monitoring radars;
7 Primoco ONE reconnaissance drones;
5 surface drones,
30,000 sets of winter clothing, and other weapons and equipment.
In addition, the plans for future deliveries of Leopard 1A5 tanks to Ukraine have changed: if earlier it was a question of transferring 90 tanks in addition to the already delivered 20, now this number has increased to 115. As noted on the website of the German Defense Ministry, the tanks will be transferred in uncertain terms, as some of the equipment planned for transfer may still be in production. The value of military aid transferred from Germany to Ukraine amounted to 7.4 billion euros for 2022-2023, and another 10.5 billion is pledged for the following years.
In this context, our colleagues from the Ubersicht_Ukraine channel recall the statement of German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who said that in the context of the current world situation, Europe should "prepare for war," and thus, of course, allocate even more funds for defense spending.
As we wrote earlier, the plan to turn the German defense industry into a tool for absorbing investments (primarily American) by MNCs continues to prove its effectiveness.
On the existential crisis of the Ukrainian counteroffensive
Valeriy Zaluzhny, chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, gave an interview and wrote an essay for The Economist in which he described the risks of "trench warfare" for Ukraine and what his country needs to defeat Russia on the battlefield. The Ukrainian and Russian armies, according to the general, have reached a level of technology that gives neither side an advantage over its rival. The Ukrainian army was expected to "advance at a rate of 30 kilometers per day." The ability of the opposing sides to observe each other's actions and the ensuing fire damage negates the effect of surprise, which also results in a slower rate of advance.
According to Zaluzhniy, the hostilities are turning into positional battles of attrition, as in the First World War, which is a threat to the existence of the Ukrainian state and society as a whole. These conditions, according to the commander-in-chief, will allow Russia to accumulate enough forces and means of defeat to deter the Ukrainian offensive.
Ukraine is in dire need of combat aircraft, without a sufficient number of which it is impossible to conduct successful ground operations.
In addition, the commander-in-chief laments the insufficient number of attack drones with which to overwhelm Russian air defense. For their effective use, it is necessary to modernize REB systems, two-thirds of which are obsolete Soviet-made models. The Russian Armed Forces, on the contrary, have been successful in defeating enemy artillery installations, primarily thanks to Lancet drones and increased production of high-precision Krasnopol-type projectiles.
The key problem with the slow pace of the Ukrainian offensive is the outdated and scarce mine-clearing machines. Deep minefields dozens of kilometers deep have prevented Ukrainian troops from passing the main Russian defensive lines. Another stumbling block is the shortage of personnel, which they plan to solve by expanding civilian mobilization and modernizing the system of planning and battle management to "make decisions faster than Russia." Only the transition from position battles to maneuver battles can theoretically promise Ukrainian formations success on the battlefield.
In Zaluzhny's words, it is impossible to win a war with "weapons of the past generation." At the same time, modern tanks and airplanes such as F-16s and Abrams were much more in demand last year, now the Russian army has qualitatively improved its personnel and put the latest S-400 air defense systems into service. Doubts are increasingly slipping into the mainstream Western media about whether Ukraine will be able to make any meaningful gains on the battlefield, and it may be a matter of freezing the conflict and future negotiations.
Chroniques de Russie
une tentative de débloquer les détroits par la force ne nous apportera rien d'autre qu'une guerre en mer avec l'OTAN, que nous perdrons ;
