Russia Begins Operations in Syria: End Game for the US Empire?

I'm not so sure about that. Erdogan is notoriously untrustworthy, often plays both sides and I'm not putting too much faith in this ceasefire, at least not in the long term.

Yes, and if Erdogan reinforces the region with more Turkish troops and not retreat then that will speak for itself. Perhaps he is bidding it's time for his next move. His export version of the S-400 will come online in April after all. 🙁

Erdogan seems to have forgotten the help Putin gave him during the 2016 failed coup-d’état. Ungrateful people like that are selfish and reckless. On top of that, the Turkish president like always seems to believe he is holding many good cards. (even if he isn't)

The Turkish president seems to be prioritising his territory-expansion ambition over his commercial and partnership relationship with Russia.
 
I'm not so sure about that. Erdogan is notoriously untrustworthy, often plays both sides and I'm not putting too much faith in this ceasefire, at least not in the long term. We were just watching a video of Bombard's Body Language when it came to the press conference with Putin earlier today and it was surprising to watch. Usually Putin is very much in charge and confident in these situations, but this is the first time she's seen him stressed and as she put it, without power in the room. As if Erdogan is holding all the cards and willing to burn the entire house down to get what he wants. Maybe it's an off day for Putin, but still, it's pretty alarming to say the least.

While watching the body language video, Erdogan creeped me out. I kept thinking “psychopath!!!”
 
Turkish-backed militants have violated the ceasefire in Idlib - Russian air defense systems have destroyed two armed drones near the Hmeimim Air Base.

06.03.2020

06.03.2020 - Video can be seen here.

06.03.2020

'Peace is not profitable, you know?'

6 Mar, 2020

06.03.2020
 
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I'm not so sure about that. Erdogan is notoriously untrustworthy, often plays both sides and I'm not putting too much faith in this ceasefire, at least not in the long term. We were just watching a video of Bombard's Body Language when it came to the press conference with Putin earlier today and it was surprising to watch. Usually Putin is very much in charge and confident in these situations, but this is the first time she's seen him stressed and as she put it, without power in the room. As if Erdogan is holding all the cards and willing to burn the entire house down to get what he wants. Maybe it's an off day for Putin, but still, it's pretty alarming to say the least.


It strikes me that Putin was uneasy, but not without power. Erdogan came across as completely sure of himself, and Putin seemed basically tasked with bring him down a notch. This had to be done very delicately, and if it didn't work, Putin probably deeply felt how the outcome could be very bad for the region as well as their relations with Turkey. Bombard is used to reading people, even those who she likes, who are mostly self interested. Putin's concern comes across as not based on his own 'power' but in relation to the many lives affected and potentially affected by this madman.
 
It strikes me that Putin was uneasy, but not without power. Erdogan came across as completely sure of himself, and Putin seemed basically tasked with bring him down a notch. This had to be done very delicately, and if it didn't work, Putin probably deeply felt how the outcome could be very bad for the region as well as their relations with Turkey. Bombard is used to reading people, even those who she likes, who are mostly self interested. Putin's concern comes across as not based on his own 'power' but in relation to the many lives affected and potentially affected by this madman.

That's pretty much how it came across to me. Perhaps Putin wasn't as controlled as he normally is - and that is telling in itself, i guess - and he did appear to be quite fidgety - she said his feet were "dancing" which was true. Putin appeared to be unable to look at Erdogan but rather than him 'lacking power' or whatnot, perhaps he just felt such disdain for him. It seemed to me that perhaps Putin had a lot on his mind and overall he was less guarded with his gestures and he wanted to get down to business and move on - and maybe even just get away from Erdogan as quickly as possible.

Erdogan sat there with an almost maniacal smirk or blankness, completely unfitting to the situation at hand, and she rightly picked up on how unsettling that was.

It was also interesting that Erdogan didn't think to greet Putin's entourage until he saw Putin - quite naturally, as he always does - go over to greet Erdogan's. That they almost bumped into each other on the way back, although a common enough thing, could highlight how much Putin wasn't paying the usual attentiveness to his guest, because in a way he doesn't even want to be in the same room as him?

Part of the opening statement from Erdogan was that he 'wanted to meet in Turkey but because Putin was so busy they decided to do it in Russia', it's interesting that he chose to spell that out even though any one following the situation surely knew that fact.

I thought it was also notable that, despite the truckload of personality disordered people and high tension situations Putin has been in, in this one he let his guard down, a little.

Anyway, i'm no body language or political expert but that's what came to mind when i watched the video.
 
Putin appeared to be unable to look at Erdogan but rather than him 'lacking power' or whatnot, perhaps he just felt such disdain for him.

Yeah, could be that Putin had placed some degree of trust in Erdogan and with Turkey's latest actions in Syria, Erdogan basically betrayed any last bit of it. If that's the case, Putin would naturally have a hard time even looking at him.

Part of the opening statement from Erdogan was that he 'wanted to meet in Turkey but because Putin was so busy they decided to do it in Russia', it's interesting that he chose to spell that out even though any one following the situation surely knew that fact.

I'd bet Erdogan resented being called to Moscow. But that he did come indicates that Ankara isn't prepared to cut ties with Russia.

The portal that the C's mentioned in the last session could be related to Turkey's erratic behavior, with Erdogan's unstable personality making him an ideal vector for chaos.

(Niall) It's a video shown a couple of weeks ago supposedly somewhere south of Aleppo. That's near the big war zone in Idlib. It's looking up in the sky fixed on a cloud and there are like waves rippling up through the cloud.

A: We told you long ago that there is a large portal over the Middle East. This was a breaching of the realm curtain.

Q: (L) So... Was something coming in, or getting out of here?

A: Coming in!

Q: (Artemis) Something came in... Prepare for the worst!

(Chu) Something like what?

A: We told you that there would be strange cosmic phenomena!

Q: (Pierre) They didn't say what was coming in.

(L) I guess we have to wait and see.

(Joe) It was the Kraken. Godzilla!

A: Paying close attention helped you spot this. Wait for more and observe results and effects.
 
Putin appeared to be unable to look at Erdogan but rather than him 'lacking power' or whatnot, perhaps he just felt such disdain for him.

Yeah, could be that Putin had placed some degree of trust in Erdogan and with Turkey's latest actions in Syria, Erdogan basically betrayed any last bit of it. If that's the case, Putin would naturally have a hard time even looking at him.

That's something that I thought about as well. After all Putin did extend an olive branch to Erdogan during the attempted coup in 2016 despite knowing what role Turkey played in the conflict in Syria and just a few years later he starts another hot zone situation in Idlib while also calling on NATO to support his invasion. I remember watching a video on Putin where it was mentioned trust with the people he works with in his government is very important to him but that once it's broken he is quick to dismiss that person from their position and out of his circle. That may have come out in the press conference where he can't simply not deal with Erdogan and it showed.

Erdogan came across as completely sure of himself, and Putin seemed basically tasked with bring him down a notch. This had to be done very delicately

True, and I think in part this is why Bombard mentioned that Erdogan is or at least feels like's holding all the cards. If he wants, he can hold Europe hostage and release all the migrants into Greece/Europe and from what I've read, the Turkish economy is plummeting at the moment and galvanizing the country for a military conflict in Idlib could be a way of drawing attention away from that. It's a difficult situation for Putin because he really needs to balance a lot of conflicting interests in the region while trying to prevent anymore escalation, knowing the US is stirring the pot and can't wait for the two countries to butt heads so they can 'intervene.' All the while, Western Media and governments are blaming him for this!
 
'US oil smugglers are sending 'humanitarian aid' to Hasaka.'

By Mh. Ibrahim / Hazem Sabbagh - 7 March، 2020

'Air 'negotiations' between Russian and Turkish warplanes continue.'

2020-03-07
 
Putin appeared to be unable to look at Erdogan but rather than him 'lacking power' or whatnot, perhaps he just felt such disdain for him.
That they almost bumped into each other on the way back, although a common enough thing, could highlight how much Putin wasn't paying the usual attentiveness to his guest, because in a way he doesn't even want to be in the same room as him?
Yeah, could be that Putin had placed some degree of trust in Erdogan and with Turkey's latest actions in Syria, Erdogan basically betrayed any last bit of it. If that's the case, Putin would naturally have a hard time even looking at him.
I remember watching a video on Putin where it was mentioned trust with the people he works with in his government is very important to him but that once it's broken he is quick to dismiss that person from their position and out of his circle.

Can't add anything significant, just that I also think similar to what others said above. Numerous Russian commentators wrote how, indeed, Putin saved Erdogan's life, and that his recent actions were no more that a cynical betrayal, especially after Putin "forgiving" him the incident of downing the Russian jet.

At first it was shocking to hear and watch the body analysis, because Putin really didn't want to look Erdogan in the eyes. But yeah, I think that maybe the "lack of power" in the video is actually disappointment and loss of respect. Perhaps in Putin's eyes he isn't a partner anymore, and should be approached and dealt with like Gurdjieff treated Aleister Crowley when he was his guest (i.e only in accordance with the rules of hospitality/diplomacy, but no more).
 
Опубликованы итоги противостояния сирийских «Буков» с турецкими беспилотниками
9 марта 2020

Почему то мне кажется, что строятся беспилотники в Турции не такими темпами, какими они их теряют.


Translation
Published the results of the confrontation of the Syrian "Buks" with Turkish drones
March 9, 2020
During the fighting in Idlib, Syria, the Buk-M2E calculations of the Syrian army carried out 25 missile launches and shot down 20 Turkish drones.
This was reported in the Twitter browser Syrian_MC.

He also notes that three times the missiles did not reach the target, and two more drones self -destructed.

We will add that in early March, the Syrian military also tried to shoot down an F-16 fighter of the Turkish air force with the help of the s-200 "Angara" SAM, but the plane escaped being hit, but returned to Turkish airspace.

It has already been reported that Syrian troops shot down Turkish drones.
Опубликованы итоги противостояния сирийских «Буков» с турецкими беспилотниками

For some reason, it seems to me that drones are being built in Turkey at a slower pace than they are losing them.
 
We were just watching a video of Bombard's Body Language when it came to the press conference with Putin earlier today and it was surprising to watch. Usually Putin is very much in charge and confident in these situations, but this is the first time she's seen him stressed and as she put it, without power in the room. As if Erdogan is holding all the cards and willing to burn the entire house down to get what he wants. Maybe it's an off day for Putin, but still, it's pretty alarming to say the least.

I think Bombard's video is edited so that it confirms their 'reading". Washington Examiner saw it differently: "the former KGB lieutenant colonel Putin insulted all Turks" and won over Erdogan, while the latter had to "lick Putin's boots."
But it's not only the WE. Pepe Escobar addressed that "insult" by saying:

At the start of their discussion marathon in Moscow on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with arguably the most extraordinary diplomatic gambit of the young 21st century.

Putin said: “At the beginning of our meeting, I would like to once again express my sincere condolences over the death of your servicemen in Syria. Unfortunately, as I have already told you during our phone call, nobody, including Syrian troops, had known their whereabouts.”

This is how a true world leader tells a regional leader, to his face, to please refrain from positioning his forces as jihadi supporters – incognito, in the middle of an explosive theater of war.

And:
The Putin-Erdogan face-to-face discussion, with only interpreters allowed in the room, lasted three hours, before another hour with the respective delegations. In the end, it all came down to Putin selling an elegant way for Erdogan to save face – in the form of, what else, yet another ceasefire in Idlib, which started at midnight on Thursday, signed in Turkish, Russian and English – “all texts having equal legal force.” ...
If this all looks like déjà vu, that’s because it is. Quite a few official photos of the Moscow meeting prominently feature Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu – the other two heavyweights in the room apart from both Presidents. In the wake of Putin, Lavrov and Shoigu must have read the riot act to Erdogan in no uncertain terms. That’s enough: now behave, please – or else face dire consequences.

Al-Monitor seemed to see it in a similar way and added some remarks about the meeting scenography:

Erdogan’s dance with Putin: Humiliating, but face-saving

In Turkish, there is a saying which can roughly translate as “How you will end up on Thursday looks clear enough on Wednesday.”

When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his entourage of senior officials headed to Moscow on March 5, their expectation was to achieve a quick cease-fire in Syria’s rebel bastion of Idlib. They had expressed this desire the previous day. Many Turkey experts and pundits predicted that Erdogan’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin would produce a temporary deal that could be face-saving for Erdogan without Syria having the military gains achieved on the Idlib battlefield reversed in favor of Turkey and its Syrian proxies. Indeed, this is what happened in Moscow.

By agreeing to rush to Moscow instead of hosting Putin in Istanbul, and after making persistent requests for a meeting with Putin, Erdogan showed a weak hand. On his way to Moscow, he demonstrated that he needed Putin more than the Russian president needed him.

A respected Russian analyst, Dmitri Trenin, put it succinctly. “Putin is Russia’s czar, and Erdogan would like to be Turkey’s sultan, but he is not. He always feels insecure and faces serious opposition in his own country. Putin is basically at ease. He is at the top of his country and far more secure than Erdogan,” Trenin said.

The video footage of Erdogan’s reception at the Kremlin was full of unmistakable scenes of humiliation of Turkey’s president cum sultan by the czar of Russia. The body language of both leaders was revealing. As Erdogan sat next to Putin, the latter stood up and made a coarse gesture to call members of the Turkish delegation for a handshake. He acted as if he were doing them a favor or gracing them with his attention. The Turkish officials, including the foreign and defense ministers and the country’s spymaster, rushed clumsily toward Putin. They looked more like school kids called by the headmaster. Erdogan, seeing what was happening, stood and walked toward the opposite direction to shake hands with Sergey Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s foreign and defense ministers.

The most striking humiliation of the Turkish guests appeared in the choreography of the meeting. Footage showed the crowded Turkish delegation standing under an imposing statue of Catherine the Great, the Russian empress who annexed Crimea from Ottoman Turkey in 1783 and defeated the Ottomans several times in the Russo-Turkish wars in 1768-74 and 1787-1792. To add insult to injury, Erdogan was seated next to Putin under a bronze sculpture of Russian soldiers of the fateful Russian-Turkish War that ended in Ottoman Turkey’s defeat in 1878.

Al-Monitor’s Russia editor Maxim Suchkov was quick to observe the symbolism on Twitter, drawing attention to the statue of Catherine the Great and the sculpture of the Russian soldiers who defeated the Ottomans.

For anyone familiar with Putin’s penchant for symbolism in messaging his politics, the choreography of the Kremlin reception with Erdogan looked very diligently planned to humiliate and impose on him a Syria deal on Russia’s terms. [...]

Putin gambled once again with Erdogan and won again.

Aside from Catherine the Great and the clock, there was also a portrait of Catherine's close associate, Russian military leader Alexander Suvorov in the room where Erdogan had to wait with his all entourage for Putin. Suvorov prevented a Turkish landing in the Crimea, thwarting another Russo-Turkish war. From 1787 to 1791 he again fought the Turks during the Russo-Turkish War of 1787-1792 and won many victories. (Wiki). Erdogan was waiting right in front of that portrait.

It's not that they have arranged the space for the event, the meeting took place in the Ceremonial / Representative Office where the Russian President conducts talks and holds meetings with the heads of foreign states and it had been decorated like that for years, nevertheless it might have had some impact on how each of the leaders felt there. Plus, again, hosting the meeting itself probably has given Putin a bit of an advantage, the same way as it works for example in sport.

Peskov later denied any "trolling" Erdogan with the Kremlin scenography and said it was pure coincidence
and RT commented:
The trolling theory may be appealing to Russian nationalists, but should be taken with a grain of salt even by those who wouldn’t take Peskov’s word on it. Lanceray, who despite his French name was a Russian artist, is not as internationally famous as Michelangelo or Rodin, so it's unlikely Erdogan instantly recognized this particular work and was able to decipher the alleged signal.

Anyway, Russia24 published yesterday a longer video (13 mins). It's in Russian, but you can see a few minutes before the two leaders met, Erdogan waiting for Putin, their initial moments in front of cameras, bits from the 6 hours of waiting for the talks to be finished, and toward the end, their announcements to the press. You will see them both smiling and shaking hands. In the meantime, both Peskov and Lavrov said it was a difficult discussion.

I don't know about others, but for me, without cuts the body language seems different.


Maybe one of our Russian-speaking members could highlight some key points in that video?
 
Maybe one of our Russian-speaking members could highlight some key points in that video?

Я, честно говоря, не считаю себя каким либо мастером в считывании языка тела, но ведь все мы в жизни так или иначе это делаем.
Посмотрев этот репортаж, я все-таки не могу согласиться с выводами бомбардиров.
В начале встречи Путин, по моему, выглядел собранным, предельно сконцентрированным, без каких то дополнительных, фальшивых поз.
На финальном общении с журналистами, обратили на себя два момента. Оставаясь серьезным, Путин как бы разминал нижнюю часть тела, освобождаясь от напряжения. Для меня это выглядело, переводя на вербальный язык как: дело сделано как надо. Причем все это спокойно, уверенно, без какого либо ликования, бравады и прочего пустого позерства. В словах его мне увиделась забавная деталь. Он как бы, как учитель в школе, давал домашнее задание турецким "ученикам". Вот вам пункт "а", вот пункт "б", обратите внимание, я потом проверю.
Про турок тоже можно отметить несколько моментов.
Во первых перед началом встречи Эрдогана остановили прямо перед портретом Александра Васильевича Суворова. Для турок этот человек очень даже известный. Ждать их заставили дольше обычного, это по словам репортера, я не сильный специалист в кремлевских обычаях, но видимо надо было турецкой делегации показать, что мы тоже кое что помним, т.к. перед поездкой в Москву мы слышали из Турции некоторые заявления по поводу количества войн между Россией и Турцией. Вот, наверное, чтоб не только количество вспоминали, но и результаты на всякий случай. Эрдоган постоял немного, прошел к стулу и присел. В этом движении он напомнил мне моего кота, тот подобным образом себя ведет, когда он не уверен, можно ли ему делать то что он собирается.
На финальном отрезке обратила на себя мое внимание категорическая разница в поведении делегаций. Потеющий, обмахивающийся рабочей папочкой Чавушоглу и суетящаяся толпа турок, до того, что Эрдогану пришлось жестом урезонивать своих сопровождающих и напротив них спокойные, уверенные как скала трое - Лавров, Шойгу и Ушаков.
Прошу меня простить, возможно и даже наверное я предвзят в своих суждениях, но так я увидел все это.
Есть еще небольшое замечание. В одном из предыдущих сообщений я увидел словосочетание - бывший подполковник КГБ. По этому поводу я хотел бы сказать, что во времена СССР была такая шутка: бывших подполковников КГБ не бывает. Теперь КГБ как такого нет, но это в данном случае ничего не меняет и, как известно, в каждой шутке есть доля... шутки.

Translation
To be honest, I don't consider myself a master at reading body language, but we all do it in one way or another in life.

After watching this report, I still can not agree with the conclusions of the Bombard's .

At the beginning of the meeting, Putin, in my opinion, looked collected, extremely concentrated, without any additional, fake poses.

At the final meeting with journalists, we noticed two things. Remaining serious, Putin seemed to be kneading the lower part of his body, freeing himself from the tension. For me, it looked, translating into verbal language as: the job is done as it should be. And all this is calm, confident, without any jubilation, bravado and other empty posturing. I saw a funny detail in his words. It was as if, like a teacher at school, he gave homework to Turkish "students". Here's point "a", here's point "b", please note, I'll check later.

About the Turks, too, you can note several points.

First, before the meeting, Erdogan was stopped right in front of a portrait of Alexander Suvorov. For the Turks, this man is very famous. They were forced to wait longer than usual, according to the reporter, I am not a strong expert in Kremlin customs, but apparently it was necessary for the Turkish delegation to show that we also remember something, because before they went to Moscow, we heard some statements from Turkey about the number of wars between Russia and Turkey. Here, perhaps, that not only the amount recalled but also the results just in case. Erdogan stood for a moment, went to a chair and sat down. In this movement, he reminded me of my cat, who behaves in this way when he is not sure whether he can do what he is going to do.

In the final segment, I noticed a categorical difference in the behavior of delegations. Cavusoglu sweating, fanning himself with a working folder and a bustling crowd of Turks, to the point that Erdogan had to gesture to reason with his escorts and opposite them calm, confident as a rock three-Lavrov, Shoigu and Ushakov.

Please forgive me, I may even be biased in my judgments, but this is how I saw it all.
There is still a small remark. In one of the previous messages, I saw the phrase- a former KGB Lieutenant Colonel . In this regard, I would like to say that in Soviet times there was such a joke: there are no former KGB Lieutenant colonels. Now the KGB as such is not, but this in this case does not change anything and, as you know, every joke has a share a joke.
 
Maybe one of our Russian-speaking members could highlight some key points in that video?

They begin by saying that the tensions were high, and quoted Putin saying that they not always agree with their Turkish partners regarding whatever happens in Syria.

They say that Erdogan called Putin "a friend", even if his subordinates weren't shy in expressing their opinions before that and caused a particularly heightened interest in this meeting.

At the beginning Erdogan wanted for the meeting to happen in Turkey, and Macron and Merkel to be included. But here he is in Russia. And everyone awaits the handshake between Putin and Erdogan.

Only couple of days before Erdogan demanded Russia to stay away, and now they speak about negotiations.

They mention the paintings of Suvorov and others, that Erdogan will have to pass on his way to the meeting. They say that these paintings has been there for awhile, but that now it is being mentioned only because Turkish officials were bold in their statements, up to mentioning the number of military conflicts between Russia and Turkey.

They say that every delegation usually waits a bit in this room (with the paintings) before they are being told that Putin is ready to meet them. For Turkish delegation the waiting time was longer. And Erdogan all this time looked mostly in front of him, without averting the sight too much. And they describe the behavior of the aids that were attentive to the movements of their leader. They also mention the briefcase with important documents that Turks have brought.

They mention that Russian ambassador in Turkey was present, and that days before that he had to endure a bunch of threats/harsh words directed toward him from the Turks. And that usually there are all kind of pleasantries and trade talks discussed before, but this time there were none, and they got right to the business.

They mention the statue of Ekaterina the Great and the clock, and that this is another sign. But also that these both items have been there for 20 years.

Putin says that they didn't know the location of the Turkish soldiers, and that it is important that something like this won't happen again and won't damage the relations between Turkey and Russia.

Putin shows Erdogan toward the table, and this is where they spent discussing in private with only interpreters present for more than 3 hours.

Peskov shows that they talks are in the active mode, but the narrator mentions that it is clear that it isn't easy at all.

They mention Turkish officials, and how they put hands to cover they mouth when they speak, so it wouldn't be possible to read their lips. But despite that some of their emotions could be read from their eyes.

Everyone awaits with great anticipation, while reporting live. And that the waiting time is long. The reporters get themselves busy with all kind of stuff.

5 hours passed since the beginning of negotiations, and finally reporters are being called to the conference room, where the leaders are going to report on the results of negotiations, but without questions from the press. But it was a false alarm, and the negotiations are still ongoing. Only after more than an hour they got closer to finishing the talks.

Putin mentioned that they talked for over 6 hours and were able to reach some sort of decision, not without the help of having previous ties with Turkey.

Turkish foreign minister, Cavusoglu, was nervous and was marking something in the folder. He tried to calm himself with the same folder.

And then Lavrov started to read the Russian text of the agreement, but it wasn't translated to Turkish, and the aids get nervous, thinking that maybe Erdogan needs help. But Erdogan stops their frantic attempts to help with the hand movement. Telling them to stop.

Lavrov continues to read from the text about the recent escalation in the situation, and the narrator mentions that the escalation was due to Turkish refusal to follow agreements that were negotiated upon for more than a year and a half ago regarding separation of moderate opposition from the terrorists. And since then terrorists more and more attack Syrian and Russian forces.

Putin said that after each attack they informed their Turkish partners. Ankara puts responsibility on Syria for the attacks, while they actually happen on Syrian soil. And the question is, what exactly Turkish forces do there anyway, and how it matches with the previous agreements.

Erdogan says that they will continue their work in accordance with the territorial entirety principle of Syria. And the narrator adds that it shows that there are still many problems to work on, but at least the main point of stopping the conflict has been successfully resolved.

In the end, when Putin and Erdogan say their goodbyes and shake hands, Putin tells Erdogan that he made the right decision and wishes him a safe/happy journey home.

It ends with Turkish reported taking a photo together in Kremlin.
 
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