Schizophrenic mexican elections

With 53% of the votes Andrés Manuel won yesterday. Never in the history of Mexico this had happened.. It was indeed historic.

AMLO, el home run - Elecciones 2018

I'm really interested to see the outcome of this new person for the following years, Mexico to me its kind of doomed because of its big neighbor. Although we saw how Trump got elected in the empire itself and we also saw how Trump got controlled by the Deep State later on. I hope that doesn't happen with Andres L. in Mexico but I won't hold my breath either. He has to have a huge knowledge of how things really work and have to have a really good strategy and be very patience if his intentions are real cuz the level of corruption in Mexico its very high OSIT.
 
With 53% of the votes Andrés Manuel won yesterday. Never in the history of Mexico this had happened.. It was indeed historic.
Well, this historic moment feels weird, everything is in calm. Yesterday, TV media I saw was the same mostly, everyone being civil, and that was weird as well, but ... from what I heard at Radio Spanish Network of SOTT last saturday, is that, it would had been preferable to let him win for the time being, and, it seems that was the case.


I'm really interested to see the outcome of this new person for the following years, Mexico to me its kind of doomed because of its big neighbor. Although we saw how Trump got elected in the empire itself and we also saw how Trump got controlled by the Deep State later on. I hope that doesn't happen with Andres L. in Mexico but I won't hold my breath either. He has to have a huge knowledge of how things really work and have to have a really good strategy and be very patience if his intentions are real cuz the level of corruption in Mexico its very high OSIT.
I saw Trump's twitter last night regarding AMLO, so far so good? both behave political corrected? or perhaps, having both similarities they might get along better ... Trump (US) do not longer wants immigrants going to US, and, AMLO (Mexico) does not want to send people there either, he wants to make things better here so people will not run at north ... both seeing after their people, although regarding deep state, asy you mention, he already knows, we are going to see if he can hold. Problem I see, is that people has a very high expectation, and AMLO will have to adress yesterday the issue about insecurity and corruption, that in most cases, go hand in hand. Not sure he be able. though.

 
Borderland Beat: Tecalitlan, Jalisco: PRI Municipal President Assassinated
Translated by Yaqui for Borderland Beat from: SinEmbargo Tuesday, July 3, 2018

Borderland Beat: Mexico's New President's agenda includes amnesty for drug growers, kingpins
op-ed by Chivis Martinez for Borderland Beat Monday, July 2, 2018

Trump speaks with AMLO:

Trump reveals this morning he spoke to AMLO saying "we had a good conversation about a half hour long”. They spoke about border security, NAFTA, trade and the possibility of a separate trade treaty between Mexico and United States.

Trump said he had a conversation with AMLO during one of his previous campaigns, at which time Trump told him, “someday you will be the president of Mexico”. . Something that AMLO remembers. Trump thinks they will have a good relationship but says “we will see.”

Mexico’s new president "AMLO" views that are radically different that the past:

*It is not the problem or responsibility of Mexico to help the United States fight its “Drug War”
*Amnesty for drug kingpins and growers of marijuana and opium poppy plants​
*Greatly reduce Mexico’s military in the fight against cartels​
*AMLO’s suggestion regarding the U.S. border; he says the United States should send its military to guard its borders.​
*Open Borders: He is in support of “Open Borders” and has no interest in helping the United States in its “illegal immigrant” problem.

Mexico has a new president, at the end of its bloodiest campaign in history with over 130 murdered candidates. [22 of Mexico's 31 states have seen a political assassination since campaigning began in September. According to according to Etellekt, a crisis management group]

The newly elected leader, a leftist populist whose long political marathon, has finally crossed the victory marker, in impressive fashion. He had stated, this was his last presidential campaign.

For Andrés Manuel López Obrador, 64, of the more commonly known as “AMLO”, third time was the charm. In his previous presidential attempts, [2006, 2012, 2018] AMLO failed to win the hearts and minds of the wealthy. In this go around, the Morena political party candidate, was able to connect a broad group of supporters, even wealthy voters. Citizens who perhaps, are exasperated at the failed policies of the past, and the inability of previous administrations to curb deepened violence and corruption in Mexico.

In 2006, he refused to accept his narrow presidential election defeat, calling the election as fraud. This triggered mass protests in the Zocalo in Mexico City that lasted a month.

The new president whose agenda has always had its focus on poverty, and corruption, which he feels are tormentors that are joined at the hip. However, how he will be able to amend those issues remains unclear.

As the former head of Mexico City, he was unable to achieve those goals.

As for drugs and kingpins, AMLO is thinking maybe a deal with the devil is the path to stride. Saying perhaps that is the way to peace in a country that has lost 100’s of thousands of lives in its war against cartels. He must have forgotten that types of deals were what got Mexico to place it now finds itself in.

He wants to sit down and negotiate. Even release the kingpins from prison. A caveat being, saying, “If it is necessary … we will talk about granting amnesty so long as the victims and their families are willing,” he said.

And immigration? Let’s look at the hypocrisy of Mexico. Mexico has some of the toughest immigration laws on the planet. Some align with what President Trump is hoping for. It has a point system, stringent requirements, such as a personal connection to Mexico, and over a certain age, financial proof requirement, or a large business investment.

And let’s not forget the harsh treatment of immigrants while travelling in Mexico from its southern border. According to Amnesty International some 12k economic migrants “disappear” each year, thousands of others are forcibly taken into servitude by the cartels. Few care about migrants in Mexico, clearly not Mexican citizens, or its government. There is little protection for migrants in Mexico other than religious based shelters like “Casa Migrante”. And the government has deemed it illegal for migrants housed in shelter to stay for more than two days or be arrested.

So, the government “dismay” and those wealthy kids protesting at Zocalo against the U.S. and its immigration policies, should not fool anyone.

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It’s difficult to determine what this new presidency will affect the United States. On its face an AMLO presidency appears the antithesis of President Donald Trump.

But if one takes AMLO at his word, AMLO realizes, although there are major ideological differences, it is imperative that he works with the U.S., especially because of its geographical connection.

And there are alike comparatives between the two neighboring leaders. They both have hair trigger reactions to criticisms, and are skillful at name calling and retaliatory hit-backs.

AMLO says he thinks he will get along with Trump, viewing Trumps rhetoric as political bombast targeting his base. He says treaties with the U.S. such as NAFTA are of the utmost importance
.
To the NYT; “I mean, the Brazilians, the French can fight with the U.S., but Mexico, for geopolitical reasons, we simply cannot,” he added. “We have to come to an agreement.”

Time will tell what will happen between these two presidents. Who knows, maybe they will discover a brother from another mother…….but with such huge differences in desired policies, it would be wise to secure your seat belt, the ride looks bumpy ahead.


Bloomberg
AMLO Won. What Comes Next for Mexico?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-03/amlo-s-got-a-mandate-what-comes-next-for-mexico-quicktake
July 3, 2018, 11:00 AM GMT+2 Video / 05:15 Bold Articles Emphasis
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Mexico’s next president, has promised to transform the nation. AMLO, as he’s known, pledged during his campaign to root out corruption, reduce violence, stop energy deals that aren’t good for the nation and spur growth in impoverished areas. If that sounds like an ambitious to-do list, it is. And he won’t be able to get started on it officially for five months, because Mexico has an unusually long presidential transition period -- about double the wait in the U.S. and Brazil.

1. When does Lopez Obrador become president?
He’ll take the oath of office Dec. 1; the new Congress is sworn in Sept. 1. Supporters of AMLO’S leftist National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party may take majorities in both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. While AMLO himself will have no official role until December, he will meet with the current president, Enrique Pena Nieto, on July 3, though it’s unclear how cooperative Pena Nieto and his administration will be since their Institutional Revolutionary Party or PRI, fared poorly in the election. Pena Nieto on election night promised an orderly and efficient transition.

2. What’s first on the agenda?
Lopez Obrador will likely ask Pena Nieto to suspend work on a new international airport for Mexico City, a $13 billion project that Lopez Obrador calls a waste of taxpayer money mired in corruption. He’s suggested he may call for a public referendum to help him decide whether to continue the existing project or scrap it and build at a military airport instead. Some investors say stopping construction at the new airport would cost the country billions of dollars in wasted labor and materials. Then there’s the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which could resume as soon as July. During the campaign, Lopez Obrador said he wanted to handle the renegotiation himself, to make sure Mexico’s farmers are protected. But Jesus Seade, the economist AMLO tapped to lead his Nafta talks, now says that “fundamentally we are in complete agreement” with the public positions of Pena Nieto’s negotiators.

3. Who’ll be on AMLO’s team?
In December, Lopez Obrador announced a number of possible cabinet picks, including Carlos Urzua, who served as Mexico City’s finance minister from 2000 to 2003, when Lopez Obrador was mayor of the capital. One of his successors as mayor, Marcelo Ebrard, is also part of the team. AMLO’s popular campaign chief, Tatiana Clouthier, the daughter of a former pro-business presidential candidate, may remain on board to continue to calm markets. AMLO says his top business adviser, Alfonso Romo, will be his chief of staff. And there are people who are said to be possibilities to join the administration even though they didn’t publicly campaign for him, like Inter-American Development Bank economist Santiago Levy.

4. What will he do once he’s sworn in?
Deal with the federal budget, since its deadline to be passed is Dec. 15. The new Congress will try to shape it to AMLO’s liking, but they may be limited in what they can do. Pena Nieto’s administration has already made commitments for 2019 spending and revenue, and the federal deficit shot up in the first quarter of this year as the PRI-controlled government splurged on anti-poverty programs ahead of Election Day. Since Lopez Obrador has promised to reduce the deficit, it may be difficult to find the money to fund his ideas, including salaries for unemployed youth to prevent them from joining criminal gangs and aid for struggling farmers. If he decides to ignore his deficit pledges and increase spending to keep his supporters happy, the peso could suffer.

5. How will he go about tackling corruption?
He’s vowed to overhaul Mexico’s system of government contracts, which he says have fueled payoffs and corruption, and to slash salaries of top officials, though it’s unclear how cutting paychecks will encourage government workers to demand fewer bribes. What he hasn’t done is suggest he’ll prosecute current politicians for corrupt acts in office, which may also make it hard for reforms to stick. But he says he can lead by example. He’ll take a smaller salary than Pena Nieto and he won’t live in Los Pinos, the presidential palace, which he wants to turn into cultural center.

6. What’s his plan to reduce crime?
He’s said he’ll stop using the nation’s military to battle drug gangs; under their watch the murder rate has soared and more than 30,000 people have gone missing since Mexico’s war on drugs began in 2006. He wants to spur development to offer alternatives to working for the drug trade and has floated the idea of amnesty for some nonviolent criminals, which would provide clean slates for them to start new lives.

7. Which energy deals might he target?
He’s been inconsistent about how he’ll handle the landmark 2014 legislation that opened the oil industry to private investment. Lopez Obrador has said he’ll halt auctions of new oil contracts to companies and audit existing ones. But his campaign has also said that most of the contracts seem fine and that he won’t do anything to disrupt investor confidence. He said he’ll stop the privatization of the electricity sector and wants to build new refineries in order to increase Mexico’s energy independence.

8. So why does he have to wait so long to be sworn in?
Mexico’s constitution was modeled in part after the U.S.’s, and until the enactment of the 20th Amendment in 1933, U.S. presidents weren’t sworn in until March 4 following the November election. During the decades in which the PRI held power, changes in policy between the end of one administration and the next were limited, so there was little pressure to shorten the gap. But reforms passed in 2014 will change the five-month wait in Mexico to three months in 2024, when the next president takes office. Lopez Obrador is the last president who will have so long between his election and inauguration.

And a Side Note:
 
Well, I'd say this is very good news! His ideals and agenda seem a bit too ambitious given the state the country is in, but... it's better than the same old people! I hope he doesn't cave in too much or too quickly to internal and external pressures.
 
yes indeed!!, Mexico hasn't had a good President for a long, long time it's been like forever, I hope he does what he's planing to do and he wants to work along with President Trump, hopefully this will help a lot of my fellow citizens....
 
I think a lot will depend on how smart AMLO turns out to be. My impression is that he is good-willed - or at least he is nowhere near the 'communist dictator' that the media claimed he would become - but I'm not sure about how competent, astute and realistic he is. For example, in dealing with Trump he may try to antagonize him (mistake), or he may try to convince him that they can both work against the immigration problem by developing Mexico's economic base (that's what he hinted at in his tweet above, so that's good news).

He can go on a fight over NAFTA and/or whatever replaces it, or he can negotiate carefully while signing new deals with the rest of Latam, Europe, Russia, China, etc. In other words, Trump's stance is an opportunity for Mexico to take a lot of eggs off that particular basket.

Antagonizing corporations would also be a bad idea, but that doesn't mean he should let them exploit resources and people at will as they have been able to do historically.

His leftist tendencies, whether that's good or bad will depend on how far he goes with them and how. For example, for a country like Mexico I think it would be great to invest in social welfare. There is a public health service, but it's insufficient and inefficient, and private health is only available for upper classes. Investing in modern hospitals and doctors would make a huge difference on people's quality of life. Having some sort of 'safety net' for the unemployed would also be a good idea, but of course that would have to be done carefully because I can imagine a hundred ways Mexicans would abuse of it.

Modernizing farming, and even subsidizing it at least for a while I think would also be good. Make the country self-sufficient on its basic needs (AMLO did mention this, so that's good). For example, Mexico consumes tons of corn, yet I believe most of it is imported from the US! That has to change. Personally, I would also seek to educate people about what's healthier to eat and help and promote those farms that provide the better quality food - but we know there's a lot of resistence to that, so we'll have to settle for corn.

Although 'left' in Latam doesn't mean exactly the same as in Europe and the US (it's a more 'old-fashioned' left, 'anti-imperialist', 'socialist'), I'm afraid that the 'identity politics' ideas are filtering down to the region, so unfortunately we'll see much of that nonsense coming up under AMLO. I hope not too much.

Regarding crime, he has proposed some sort of amnesty. I'm skeptical about this idea, but I suppose that if the amnesty applies only to non-serious crimes, then it could help. The big organized crime groups should still be tackled, but not by simply trying to get rid of the heads of the mafia (as has been done in the past), cause then someone else will simply take their place. There won't be a simple solution. Crime should be attacked at the same time as poverty and corruption. Cleaning the police and the military and re-moralizing them should be a priority, but then, how do you do that? And some sort of moralizing public campaign would not hurt - something to remind people to resist the temptation of crime and corruption at their own level. Although it's taboo in Mexico to mix religion with politics, such campaign could even have religious undertones if that brings better results.

As you can see, I often play the game of "What would I do if I was president of Mexico" in my mind. :)
 
I think a lot will depend on how smart AMLO turns out to be. My impression is that he is good-willed - or at least he is nowhere near the 'communist dictator' that the media claimed he would become - but I'm not sure about how competent, astute and realistic he is. For example, in dealing with Trump he may try to antagonize him (mistake), or he may try to convince him that they can both work against the immigration problem by developing Mexico's economic base (that's what he hinted at in his tweet above, so that's good news).

He can go on a fight over NAFTA and/or whatever replaces it, or he can negotiate carefully while signing new deals with the rest of Latam, Europe, Russia, China, etc. In other words, Trump's stance is an opportunity for Mexico to take a lot of eggs off that particular basket.

Antagonizing corporations would also be a bad idea, but that doesn't mean he should let them exploit resources and people at will as they have been able to do historically.

His leftist tendencies, whether that's good or bad will depend on how far he goes with them and how. For example, for a country like Mexico I think it would be great to invest in social welfare. There is a public health service, but it's insufficient and inefficient, and private health is only available for upper classes. Investing in modern hospitals and doctors would make a huge difference on people's quality of life. Having some sort of 'safety net' for the unemployed would also be a good idea, but of course that would have to be done carefully because I can imagine a hundred ways Mexicans would abuse of it.

Modernizing farming, and even subsidizing it at least for a while I think would also be good. Make the country self-sufficient on its basic needs (AMLO did mention this, so that's good). For example, Mexico consumes tons of corn, yet I believe most of it is imported from the US! That has to change. Personally, I would also seek to educate people about what's healthier to eat and help and promote those farms that provide the better quality food - but we know there's a lot of resistence to that, so we'll have to settle for corn.

Although 'left' in Latam doesn't mean exactly the same as in Europe and the US (it's a more 'old-fashioned' left, 'anti-imperialist', 'socialist'), I'm afraid that the 'identity politics' ideas are filtering down to the region, so unfortunately we'll see much of that nonsense coming up under AMLO. I hope not too much.

Regarding crime, he has proposed some sort of amnesty. I'm skeptical about this idea, but I suppose that if the amnesty applies only to non-serious crimes, then it could help. The big organized crime groups should still be tackled, but not by simply trying to get rid of the heads of the mafia (as has been done in the past), cause then someone else will simply take their place. There won't be a simple solution. Crime should be attacked at the same time as poverty and corruption. Cleaning the police and the military and re-moralizing them should be a priority, but then, how do you do that? And some sort of moralizing public campaign would not hurt - something to remind people to resist the temptation of crime and corruption at their own level. Although it's taboo in Mexico to mix religion with politics, such campaign could even have religious undertones if that brings better results.

My opinion is along the same lines, it seems that AMLO has the will to implement a profound change in Mexican politics and the lives of Mexicans. What I wonder is how capable López Obrador and his team will be of carrying out such a task. For the time being, yesterday the new president has just declared: "My government is going to make a radical change (....) And let nobody be afraid because what we Mexicans are going to do together is to uproot the corrupt regime, of injustices and privileges". It is too early to say, but I imagine that a more cautious attitude would be more prudent at this time, i.e. not to challenge the powers that be in such a manifest and public way on the first day of mandate to avoid "disturbing the hornet's nest", and instead to pursue these policies without them "seeing it coming" (so to speak). Perhaps I am too wary, but it has already happened before, others who started a government with a very explicitly combative discourse, perished in the attempt. Despite this, I believe that the historic change that has just taken place is encouraging.
As you can see, I often play the game of "What would I do if I was president of Mexico" in my mind. :)

Well, if you were a candidate, you'd get my vote :-P
 
Perhaps I am too wary, but it has already happened before, others who started a government with a very explicitly combative discourse, perished in the attempt. Despite this, I believe that the historic change that has just taken place is encouraging.
I am too wary as well, we will just have to wait and see, and keep informed as well, even though, Morena es getting as well the congress -deputy and senators, it wont be easy, it has problems at home, and the upcoming problems from the outside, was reading the other day that the tariff battle may be worst for emerging economies. Ay! ... but, from a crisis we should better see opportunities, something that I repeat myself constantly ...
China tariffs on US goods 'starts July 6'
 
Everyone in Mexico wanted a change and those who hesitated to accept it were:
Those that belonged to the p.r.i., or relatives of them.
those who had been promised a "hueso"(bone) in the bureaucracy.
or those who are simply idiots, as stated in the "memes".

Celebration in Hermosillo,capital of Sonora for the triumph of Lopez Obrador.
Murphy Woodhouse (@MurphyWoodhouse) | Twitter
 
Interesting article on AMLO here:

The New Yorker, July 3, 2018

To tens of millions of Mexicans, Sunday's stunning electoral victory by the charismatic leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a perpetual also-ran in the country's recent Presidential elections, was an apotheosis. López Obrador, or AMLO, as he is also called, won fifty-three per cent of the vote, leaving his nearest rivals, including Ricardo Anaya of the conservative PAN party, far behind. Not only did López Obrador win; the party that he founded a few years ago-the Movement for National Regeneration-also won a majority of seats in both houses of the national legislature, and it took five of the nine governorships that were up for grabs. It was, as they say, a real sweep. And unlike a number of recently disputed elections in Mexico, López Obrador's win was the chronicle of a victory foretold. To many observers, he has been the favorite to win this year's election since Donald Trump took office, a year and a half ago.


Comment: Political earthquake in Mexico: Leftist AMLO achieves historic landslide election victory


The outgoing Mexican President, Enrique Peña Nieto, will hand over the reins to López Obrador on December 1st. He leaves behind a country with tattered morale and widespread doubts about the future. Rarely has a President so fumbled his term in power the way Peña Nieto has-from adopting a posture of obsequiousness with Trump to giving the appearance of either powerlessness or complicity amidst a culture of wholesale political corruption. Peña Nieto's inability to slow down the country's gruesome "war on drugs"-which was initiated by his predecessor and has cost as many as two hundred thousand lives-has deepened the sense of national despair. He has failed to prosecute some of the most horrific criminal cases that have occurred on his watch, including the disappearance and suspected mass murder of forty-three teaching trainees in the town of Ayotzinapa, an incident that reportedly involved local politicians, police, a drug gang, and the Army.

Enter López Obrador, an unabashed left-wing politician who has built up a base of national support through good old-fashioned grassroots campaigning over the past twenty years. By any definition, he is an extraordinary political figure. Born and raised in the state of Tabasco, a Gulf Coast backwater, López Obrador is a curious blend. An unassuming man of simple tastes and a reputation for personal austerity, he is also a published historian with a half-dozen books to his name, and he's a passionate follower-and player-of baseball. On Sunday, at the age of sixty-four, he has also become the most powerful person in Mexico, someone who promises to end the country's culture of corruption and to launch it into a new era-what he calls the "fourth Mexican transformation." The first came with Mexico's independence from Spanish colonial rule, in 1821; the second with Benito Juárez's liberal reforms and his return to power, after ousting the French-imposed Habsburg emperor Maximilian, in the eighteen-sixties; the third was the epochal and bloody Mexican Revolution, in the early twentieth century. López Obrador promises that his transformation will be a peaceful one.

With his triumph, López Obrador ends an eighty-eight-year hold on Mexico's political power by two parties-the PRI, which ran the country from its founding, in 1929, until 2000, and the PAN, with whom it has alternated power ever since. He also bucks the trend to the right that has swept Latin America. Lately, the so-called Pink Tide of the Hugo Chávez era has collapsed in country after country, replaced by a seemingly inexorable wave of conservatism, which includes, as in the United States, its own share of populists and demagogues. In Colombia's most recent election, which took place two weeks ago, the right-wing politician Iván Duque came first in the polls over his left-wing rival, Gustavo Petro. Duque's victory was largely based on instilling fear in the Colombian electorate that Petro, a former guerrilla, was a kind of Trojan Horse for the "castrochavista" left of Venezuela and Cuba.

López Obrador's rivals tried to brand him as a castrochavista as well, but it never worked, and it didn't stop his momentum. Although a man of the left, López Obrador demonstrated his pragmatism during a stint, between 2000 and 2005, as the mayor of Mexico City, where he worked with ideological adversaries to get things done. A case in point was his alliance with the Mexican telecom magnate Carlos Slim, with whom he formed a public-private business partnership that brought life-and people-back to the neglected and crime-ridden historic city center. During his Presidential campaign, he also made huge efforts to reach out to his traditional foes in the private-sector business élite, who fear that López Obrador is a socialist in sheep's clothing. This all-powerful cabal of Mexican empresarios has been crucial in keeping him out of power in the past. Almost everyone in Mexico agrees that, in the 2006 election, for instance, when López Obrador lost by less than a half of one per cent of the vote to his PAN rival, Felipe Calderón, it was fraud, aided and abetted by the private sector. (Whether or not fraud was the determining factor in his loss in the 2012 election is less clear-cut.)

López Obrador's celebrated his victory on Sunday night like a rock star, showered with confetti and hailed with ecstatic applause and cheers on a stage in front of a huge crowd that had gathered in the Zócalo, the vast public square outside the Presidential palace where the Aztecs once maintained their seat of power. The moment was not only a personal victory for López Obrador but a victory to the countless ordinary Mexicans who voted for him, many of whom have always felt excluded from the political life of the country. They include those who come from the atomized indigenous and agrarian communities around the country that are overrun with narcos, those who emigrate en masse to work in potato fields, and busboys and cooks living in the United States. At a time when the nation's morale is at an all-time low, not least because of Trump's hurtful invective, but also because of a broad sense among Mexicans that their own political culture has failed them, López Obrador restores a measure of hope that Mexico is a country worth being proud of. The expectations he has raised are enormous, and he has not shied away from the prospect of raising them further.

On Sunday night, López Obrador repeated the promise he made many times on the campaign trail: "I will not fail you, I will not disappoint you, and I will not betray the people." He made it clear that he also wishes to be a figure of unity, by issuing a call for Mexicans to put aside their differences in national reconciliation, "because the fatherland comes first." In a hopeful sign, both his rivals conceded quickly and congratulated him on his victory, as did Peña Nieto.

For a recent piece for the magazine, I accompanied López Obrador on three separate campaign trips and had several conversations with him. The main feeling I came away with was that López Obrador has a strong sense of historic purpose in what he is doing, and that he genuinely believes in the ability of Mexicans to rise above their circumstances with his help. Those who have compared his populism to Trump's are fundamentally mistaken, in my view; López Obrador's populism is built not on a hatred of "the other," or on a need to prevail at the expense of others, but rather on an intuitive faith that Mexicans can overcome their current reality with a redeployment of their most outstanding national traits-hard work, resourcefulness, pride, modesty, and bravery.

There is another difference between López Obrador and Trump. With Trump, "America First" seems to involve an aggressive hunkering down and the erection of a notional Fortress America that not only shows an unfriendly face to the outside world but threatens to use its raw power to impose its will. As the beleaguered southern neighbor of the U.S., Mexicans are especially vulnerable in the Trump era, and López Obrador seems to understand that he needs to proceed with caution but also with firmness. In the face of Trump's proposed wall, dividing the two nations further, López Obrador has proposed greater togetherness, and has said he will establish a thirty-kilometre-wide free-trade zone along the entire length of the Mexican-American border, with significantly reduced taxes as an incentive for more American companies to come and do business there. Trump proposes the expulsion of millions of Mexicans and other "illegal aliens"; López Obrador has countered with calls for a series of F.D.R.-style make-work projects that involve tree-planting and various infrastructure programs to encourage Mexican workers to stay at home.

López Obrador was renowned in the past for having a hot temper, but he has learned to keep his true feelings in check. Nowadays, he says a great deal with his eyes, and sometimes with a smile or a pointed look. In one of our conversations, he quipped, "We have had some bizarre characters in Mexico, but Donald Trump?" He opened his eyes wide, shot me a theatrical smile, and hit the table with both his hands.

But, for most Mexicans, Donald Trump is the monster who lives in the cave on the mountain above, a fact of life that they can do little about. They do not expect Andrés Manuel López Obrador to change that, but to make their lives more bearable, perhaps, with the grand gesture of his presence on their national stage. At home, what they most want him to do is what he has promised them over and over on the campaign trail-to end Mexico's corruption. As Carmen Aristeguí, the doyenne of Mexican investigative journalists, wrote me to say recently, "The goal of Andrés Manuel López Obrador is to pass into history, nothing more and nothing less; to be remembered like the founding fathers were. One does not expect Andrés Manuel to be just another manager of the chaos. One hopes that he will direct the country towards a new logic of political power, and of citizenship, that will allow the dismantling of deeply-rooted structures and practices that have always dominated Mexico. If Andrés Manuel manages to eradicate the systemic corruption in Mexico and doesn't do anything else during his time in government, that will be reason enough to raise a statue to him and to tell his story in all the primary school books."

Jon Lee Anderson, a staff writer, began contributing to the magazine in 1998. He is the author of several books, including "The Fall of Baghdad."


Comment: AMLO and Trump are similar in that they were both 'outsiders' from the establishment and people recognized them as such, which is largely why they won their elections. They are different though, in that one comes from the 'left' and the other from the 'right'. But perhaps more signfiicantly, at this point in time the overwhelming majority of Mexicans are united behind AMLO, while unfortunately the US is deeply divided for or against Trump.

At this moment Mexicans are cautious but more hopeful than they have been in a long time. Whether AMLO fulfills the expectations will depend a lot on how skillfully he can navigate the forces domestically and internationally pulling him in different directions, such as free markets vs 'socialism', globalism vs nationalism, traditionalism vs identity politics, etc. But of all his challenges, the one that will make or break him is the promised fight against corruption.
 
AMLO’s Finance Minister Pick Sees Inflation Between 4-5% Next Year
Justin Villamil and Cyntia Barrera Diaz July 4, 2018, 5:25 PM GMT+2
Mexico’s likely next finance minister Carlos Urzua said that he sees Mexico’s 2019 inflation between 4 and 5 percent, quite a departure from the current government’s 3 percent preliminary projection.

Urzua, a former academic who ran Mexico City’s finances under then-mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador spoke in a wide-ranging interview broadcast on Televisa. He said that the government is expecting GDP growth around 2.5 percent next year, and that he sees the Mexican peso appreciating to 19 pesos per dollar -- a 2.5% gain from current levels.

Urzua also says that gasoline prices will not suffer abrupt fluctuations, and they will increase in line with inflation. Considered by many to be a debt hawk, he highlighted the importance of not putting pressure on budgets: if planned expenditures for social programs exceed targets, they will cut spending or adjust programs.

Analysts see inflation at 3.65 percent for the end of 2019, according to the median forecast in a survey published Monday by the Central Bank.

The likely finance minister said that pains would be taken to respect the independence of the central bank, and he said that when the term of some deputy governors in Banxico expire Lopez Obrador will propose new members to the Senate.

A central bank pick will have "a completely technical profile with a deep knowledge of monetary policy," Urzua said. "Someone who is very well known by financial markets."

He also touched on one of the key hot-button issues during the campaign, saying that there are three scenarios being considered for the new Mexico City airport. He said that perhaps the easiest way to finish the project would be through a concession.

Urzua said that Gerardo Esquivel would likely be appointed deputy finance minister. He also said he expects the Mexican oil barrel may trade around $70 next year.

MXN:CUR Mexican Peso Spot



Borderland Beat: Chihuahua: Voting in Mexico, with an AK-47 in tow
Thursday, July 5, 2018

Chivis Martinez for Borderland Beat
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A man armed with a cuerno de chivo (AK47) casting a vote in a Chihuahua voting booth

The "Together we will make history" coalition, led by Morena, swept the candidacies in the municipality of Juarez and the majority of municipalities in the Mexican state of Chihuahua, with the exception of the capital and mountain communities (Sierra Tarahumara), which went to PAN and PRI. These towns are reportedly controlled by narcos (drug traffickers).

The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) won only 21 municipalities, including Balleza and also in Batopilas, Cusihuiriachi, Chínipas, Guachochi, Guadalupe and Calvo, Huejotitán, Mahuarichi, Ocampo, Matachí.

Readers will recognize those Chihuahua municipalities as some of the most violent in the cartel war.
 
Court approves sale of marijuana seeds in pharmacies
Translated by El Profe for Borderland Beat from Milenio
Friday, July 6, 2018 Decriminalization of marijuana by Rubén Mosso

The Second Chamber granted amparo for 3 people in order to obtain the seeds to cultivate and consume their own marijuana for recreational purposes; it is a "wake-up call" for Congress to legislate on the issue.


The Second Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation opened the door for three citizens to legally acquire, for only one occasion, before the Cofepris [Federal Commission for the Protection against Sanitary Risk], marijuana seeds in drugstores or in an establishment destined for the production of authorized medicines with derivatives of cannabis.

Eduardo Medina Mora, president of the Second Chamber said that this ruling is a "wake-up call" for the Congress of the Union to legislate on the issue.

"The sentences we issue in this Supreme Court must have a practical effect and be obviously deferential to reality ... I believe that the issue of behaviors that are prohibited in the General Law of Health regarding marijuana, should not be addressed from an exclusive or basic personal liberties point of view, but from a perspective of public policy.

"I think that these type of guidelines and restrictions should not be imposed from a seat of jurisdiction, but in any case, through the design of public policy of the work that falls to the Legislative Power, the foregoing without ignoring that the sentences issued by the Supreme Court, those that it has issued and that we are broadcasting today, are a wake-up call for the subject to be addressed and dealt with in a comprehensive manner in the corresponding headquarters, this is in the Congress of the Union."

The chamber unanimously approved the plan of Minister Joao Fernando Franco Gonzalez Salas, who proposed protecting Zara Ashley Snap Hartman, Maria Teresa Cecilia Autrique Escobar, and Fernando Ramos Casas.

Snapp Hartman said they will try to meet with the authorities that will form the new government headed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, because the retired minister Olga Sánchez Cordero, who is shaping up to be named Secretary of the Interior in the next administration, "has an opportunity in this topic" and it is extremely important.

"It requires real regulation of the market that includes production, distribution and sale and export; what we are seeing internationally is that many countries are moving in that direction," said Zara Ashley.

The plaintiffs had already obtained the protection of justice to cultivate and consume marijuana for recreational purposes, but claimed that they could not get the seeds legally.

With this pronouncement from the Second Chamber, that amounts to eight ministers (four in the First Chamber) in favor of granting amparos to consume marijuana for recreational purposes.

In this case, the amendments to the General Health Law published in the Official Gazette of the Federation were analyzed on June 19, 2017, specifically article 235 bis23, in which the design and execution of the Ministry of Health's obligation was established that regulate the medicinal use of drug derivatives of cannabis in any of its varieties.

And Article 29024 in which the possibility of importing narcotic drugs, psychotropic substances, products or preparations that contain them, including pharmacological derivatives of cannabis of any of its varieties, within the national territory seeds can be acquired legally.

The draft of Minister Franco mentions that in terms of article 236 of the General Health Law, the defendant authority is in a position to issue a special permit for acquisition or transfer so that the plaintiffs acquire the necessary seeds to carry out the activities by those that have been protected.

In the amparo under review 1163/2017, Minister Franco details that since the reform of Article 290 of the General Health Law, it is possible to obtain an authorization to import into the national territory narcotics, psychotropic substances, products or preparations containing them, including the pharmacological derivatives of cannabis of any of its varieties.

Landmark Mexico Oil Reform Is Set to Stay: AMLO's Chief of Staff
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/landmark-mexico-oil-reform-is-set-to-stay-amlo-s-chief-of-staff
July 5, 2018, 10:22 PM GMT+2
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Rest assured, President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador won’t use his congressional muscle to overhaul Mexico’s landmark oil reform that allowed foreign companies back into the industry, the head of his transition team said.

Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO, will review private oil contracts for graft, but if something untoward is found there will be talks with the companies before any change is made, said Alfonso Romo, who will become the next president’s chief of staff.

"I don’t see changes," to the oil reform of 2013, Romo said in an interview in his Mexico City office. "If anything happens, it would be done without hurting private investment."

Just four months ago, AMLO told a rally during the election campaign that he would never allow Mexican crude to return to the hands of foreigners. More recently he said he may seek to reform the oil industry in the second half of his administration. Neither of those options appear to be on the table now, says Romo, and that will come as a relief to investors.

The oil reform approved by current President Enrique Pena Nieto has attracted pledges for billions of dollars in investment from oil giants including Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp., as the government looks to halt more than a decade of declining output.
"Mexico has a necessity for lots of money for offshore drilling,” Romo said. If oil output returns and drives growth "no one will fight success."

Landslide Victory

Lopez Obrador won the July 1 election by a landslide and projections show his coalition will have an absolute majority in both houses of congress, though not the two-thirds required to change constitutional reforms such as the oil bill. However, members of other left-leaning parties could join forces to help him reach that constitutional majority. But rather than scaring away investors as some analysts feared, the man who once sought to undo the oil reform has sought to calm markets.
"What do we want to do? We want to take advantage of all of the enthusiasm we’ve generated to fix everything we can," Romo said. "What don’t we want? To create uncertainty. Zero. I’m terrified of that."

The peso has soared as a result and is headed for its biggest weekly gain since Feb. 2016.
Among the policies that AMLO will back is banking deregulation to promote lending to small and mid-sized companies, as well as more flexible investment schemes for the nation’s pension funds, known as Afores, so that workers can increase their savings, Romo said.

Lopez Obrador is also seeking a conciliatory, not a confrontational, solution to an impasse with Pena Nieto’s administration over a $13 billion airport project that he’s criticized as too costly, Romo said. AMLO’s team is still deciding what it will do, and doesn’t want to spend money on the project, but one solution may be to maintain some ownership and sell the rest off to the private sector, he said.

"If this goes forward it will be through the private sector," Romo said. "It could be like oil contracts where we take 40 percent of the business without having to invest anything."

Public Revolt

Lopez Obrador rode to victory on a public revolt against rampant crime, corruption and poverty and handed a crushing defeat to the business-friendly parties that have run the country for decades. He takes office in December and has promised to end corruption and government privilege, while boosting social welfare programs for the young and elderly.

Romo, who owns brokerage firm Vector and several other ventures, has been AMLO’s liaison to the business community, and his plans for bank deregulation and more flexible pension funds fall squarely along business-friendly lines.

His goal, Romo says, is to help Mexico boost its meager long-term growth rate of about 2.5 percent through deregulation and investor confidence, among other tools. He said his team will seek to facilitate financial inclusion for small businesses, partially through development banks.

As for changes to the pension system, in one month his team should have a concrete plan to create more flexible investment rules so that Afores can loosen their portfolio concentration in government bonds.

"Without being irresponsible, we have to give the Afores a margin to have adequate yields in order to face the problems we have" with savings deficits in Mexico’s pension system, Romo said.


 
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One of the most important elements in the successful Lopez Obrador campaign and the MORENA party (Movimiento Regeneracion Nacional) was the participation, of women very smart, who deployed great and very effective activity, and on all of themTatiana Clouthier coordinator of the MORENA campaign nationwide, and Lilly Tellez in the state of Sonora.

VIDEO DISCOURSE OF LILLY TELLEZ last June.
Lilly calls her speech a video column, because she is also a journalist candidate to the Senate of the Republic with Alfonso Durazo.
The two resulted winners with great majority, Durazo would be named "Secretary of Public Security" in the next cabinet of Lopez Obrador.

At the beginning it refers to j.a.meade kuribrena candidate "without party" but who had served as an official in the last three governments,the most corrupt.

This is the transcription / translation of this superb speech full of truths that although it refers to Mexican politics, can be applied to the governments of any country:


"Jose Antonio Meade tells us that we have a debt, and to top it off, it is a debt great, says that we Mexicans owe a lot to the p.r.i .... Ah, Caray!!! (Ah,wow)... what's not the other way around?
I do not know how one could calculate what the p.r.i. owes to mexico in Economic Development,in Safety, in Education, in Infrastructure, in Health, But, let's put pesos and cents to some "little things" that are pending, nothing more:Three former p.r.i. governors, they owe 75 billion pesos, which they took from the states of Veracruz, Chihuahua and Quintana Roo.

I would have to make a film and not a video column to list cases of Priistas that are in debt to Mexicans.The p.r.i. , as a brand is already very worn out, those of that party know it, that's why they chose as a candidate someone who is not a PRI, someone without an affiliation partisan; It is the p.r.i. that needs the "prestige" of j.a.meade, to put it as alternative to those who fear Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador; a pure technocrat that guarantees the continuity of the Economic, and free politics of scandals of corruption at least personally. The abbreviations p.r.i. Are a ballast to meade,the party is cannibalized by presenting it as a ghost of fidel velazquez, the most rancid and detestable of anachronistic unionism. In that greeting of hand the leader of the C.T.M. (Confederación de Trabajadores de México) he devours meade citizen; already it matters that meade does not have a credential of the p.r.i, that is the kiss of the devil that makes him tricolor. How priista is the meade not priista ?: It is a priista of teeth for outside or was a p.r.i. disguised. What a good challenge for your bell advisors, they have an existential problem of double personality, But to the citizens who do not come to us with the story of a p.r.i.in reverse. No, Mexicans are not in debt to that p.r.i. party, and if so, tell us how much it is, maybe it will be cheaper to follow them maintaining".
 
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Mexico’s Next President Plans His Own Border Police Force
July 9, 2018, 5:28 PM GMT+2 Video 07:09

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-09/security-on-mexican-borders-to-get-new-force-but-not-from-trump?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=politics
Lopez Obrador’s security chief Durazo to create border force
Humanitarian, development program to be big part of policy


After months of Donald Trump’s controversial clampdown on immigration, Mexico’s President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is planning his own border police force to stop undocumented immigrants, drugs and guns from crossing into the country from Central America, his future chief of public security said.

Picked by Lopez Obrador, Alfonso Durazo stressed that the new force would be part of a larger regional development effort to ease the poverty and violence that lead so many Central Americans to cross into Mexico. The police corps will be sizable, he said, and will be deployed to Mexico’s northern border as well. He declined to offer more specifics as the details are still being decided.

"We’re going to create a border police force that will be highly specialized," Durazo said in an interview. "They need to apply the law," including stopping undocumented migrants and human traffickers from crossing into Mexico, which Durazo says often takes place with the help of corrupt officials.

Lopez Obrador and the left-wing party he formed in 2014 won a landslide victory in last week’s election after voters disgusted with rising crime, corruption and poverty kicked the nation’s established parties out of power. AMLO, as he’s known, also got a boost from pledges to protect Mexicans against an immigrant crackdown by U.S. President Donald Trump. Now he’ll be faced with the unenviable task of securing the nation’s own untamed southern border, while avoiding the hard-line tactics he has criticized Trump for.

Lopez Obrador, who takes power Dec. 1, will meet with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday. Immigration is likely to be one of the topics they discuss.

Utter Failure

Durazo stressed that the most important measures to contain immigration under Lopez Obrador will be humanitarian and will include coordination with Central American countries to improve the quality of life of their citizens.

The former private secretary to ex President Vicente Fox, said Mexico’s security strategy has utterly failed and needs to be overhauled. "The legitimate use of force by the state is a resource," he said. "But it shouldn’t be the first resource, it should be the last one."

The new administration’s first priority will be to fight the causes of the violence. For example, to prevent corruption, it will significantly increase salaries and benefits for law enforcement officials and create more police academies to double the number of security personnel that can receive training per year, he said.

Lopez Obrador’s top cop reiterated his comments from April to Bloomberg, that the sale and use of marijuana should be decriminalized and regulated. But before a policy decision is made on the matter, it will be put to a public referendum, he said.

Borderland Beat: AMLO: Legal Poppy Production for Pharmacueticals
Translated by Yaqui for Borderland Beat from: TeleSur Monday, July 9, 2018
June 9, 2018 Part 2, below from Milenio
Mexico's president-elect, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, is open to the idea of selling opium for pharmaceutical use, a senior aide said on Wednesday.

The move would be a sign of the deep changes the next government is considering over the U.S.-led ''war on drugs'' approach.

"Why not sell it to pharmaceutical companies?" said Olga Sanchez Cordero, a former Supreme Court judge who is the incoming president's pick to run the Interior Ministry.

She said the next president, a 64-year-old former mayor of Mexico City, supported a public consultation on the possibility of regulating opium and decriminalizing marijuana.

Sanchez said the newcomers were also exploring decriminalizing marijuana for recreational use, saying it no longer made sense for Mexican authorities to engage in a violent struggle against the drug when Canada and several U.S. states have already adopted more lenient policies.

lisa-sanchez-mexico-unido-delincuencia.jpg

Lisa Sanchez Olga Sanchez Cordero

"What are we thinking? Tell me. We are killing ourselves. Really, why keep on killing when most of North America is decriminalizing?" she told "W Radio".

Sanchez said any such move would be in parallel to rehabilitation programs and strict punishments for anyone selling drugs to children.

To legally grow and export opium poppies for painkillers, Mexico first would need authorization from the International Narcotics Control Board (INCB), a United Nations body.

Lopez Obrador, who takes office in December, upturned Mexico's political status quo in the July 1 election with more than half the country voting for him. His coalition will have a majority in Congress, projections show, ending 89 years of rule by just two parties.

He did not take a clear stance on decriminalizing drugs before the election, but says he will try out new approaches to tackling Mexico's violence, including possible amnesty for some cartel employees.

In Mexico, the battle for control of heroin production and trafficking is held partly responsible for the country's record levels of violence, which involved nearly 30,000 murders last year.

Regulation of opium poppy farming for morphine production is a model used in Turkey and India, among other countries.

Lisa Sánchez , director of the civil association United Mexico Against the Crime (MUCD), applauded that the ex- member of the Supreme Court, Olga Sanchez Cordero, who has spoken out in favor of the legalization of the planting, harvesting and recreational use of the marijuana .

In an interview with Carlos Puig for Milenio Television , Lisa Sánchez stressed that Sánchez Cordero "is someone who understands the subject, who has the evidence, and who proposes it in conjunction with other actions", among which is: "a transitional justice plan plus an amnesty plan . "

The director of MUCD considers that the amnesty proposed by López Obrador during his campaign- and legalization of marijuana should go hand in hand.

"They have to go together, because an amnesty without a regulatory change of an illicit economy the size of drugs is doomed to fail, " said Lisa Sanchez .

"If you make an amnesty for the growers, for the producers , even for those small merchants who are victims of the "cam" (when the organized crime groups forcibly recruits growers), they could access certain benefits, to certain amnesties, but if you do not remove that incentive of illegality from those markets, those amnesties will hardly work, " she stressed.

The proposal of Sánchez Cordero:

Proposed by López Obrador as his Secretary of the Interior, Sánchez Cordero told AFP in June that, if the standard-bearer of Morena won the elections, she would seek the decriminalization of marijuana for its use and work through " transitional justice ", a series of special legal mechanisms that can be activated after systematic violations of human rights in a country.

Here part of the interview she gave to the AFP:

-How is the amnesty going to work for perpetrators of crimes?

I am thinking of a law with reduction of sentences for informants that will lead us to true and accurate information, collated, such as the locations of some of the disappeared.

I believe that there will be no material or human or economic resources that we can allocate to the location of the disappeared, which in the black figure could be many.

-Who would you include the amnesty?

To the victims of forced labor. (organized crime groups forcibly recruit growers). There are many many young people and if they do not accept the forced labor they just kill them. Either they go with them and do their bidding or they kill them and/or disappear them.

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We have a generation of young people who are the disappeared, especially young men, disappeared, most of them from 15 to 21 years old. We have had at least 18 years of losing a generation of young people. We can not continue like this.

- How do you convince a tempted boy to walk away from the easy money of a life of crime?

We are going to offer him school, a culture of peace, to lay down his arms. It should suit him to have another future, that his immediate future may be to want to have a Hummer , but that immediate future does not end there.

There are areas such as the Sierra de Guerrero where people devote themselves to poppies and complain that there is no other industry to work in.

We have to start thinking about the decriminalization of drugs. So it goes. In an over all policy of decriminalization of drugs. Obviously starting with marijuana.

-Only the marijuana ?

Marijuana for recreational use and the derivitives. I'm going to propose to Andrés Manuel at the time, the decriminalization of marijuana in planting, harvesting, transport , medicinal and recreational use.

In terms of the poppy, it is convenient as Afghanistan has done. Opiates are highly valued for pharmaceuticals and for medicinal use as legal drugs especially in trauma cases and compassionate end of life care.


 
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