More about " Times ahead are going to be shocking and unstable". JPMorgan strategist Michael Cembalest predicts the following events for 2024
● The DoJ/FTC win a big antitrust case. After a drought of 20+ years since the Microsoft antitrust caseq, the Department of Justice and/or Federal Trade Commission win one of the big antitrust cases currently underway against Google, Amazon, Meta or T-Mobile.
●President Biden withdraws sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons. Biden passes the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee. Biden has a low approval rating for a President with ~10% job creation since his inauguration, although that figure is the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening US economy.
●Argentine dollarization will fail if implemented. Whenever the Cato Institute, American Enterprise Institute and City Journal agree (like they do on positive prospects for Argentine dollarization), I get suspicious. Argentine President Milei needs a two-thirds majority to pass constitutional reforms required for dollar convertibility.
Furthermore, Argentina would need substantial foreign exchange reserves and much higher savings rates to even try it. But even if these goals were met, dollarization would fail after being implemented.
Convertibility to another currency is generally only workable in places with some combination of the following:
(a) high levels of productivity, flexibility and business dynamism to allow the economy to absorb domestic and external shocks;
(b) white knight lenders such as the ECB and European Commission; and/or (c) substantial
commodity related foreign exchange reserves to defend the currency peg when needed. Argentina has none of these attributes, and while Milei is trying, I doubt he will be able to sufficiently de-Peronize
Argentina. Dollarization would yield to de-dollarization in a fairly short period.
● Russian invasion of Ukraine drags on with no ceasefire in 2024. Despite Russia reportedly losing 87% of its prewar active troops (315,000 killed or injured) and two-thirds of its tanks, there is no ceasefire and the war drags on for another year. Some US financial support for Ukraine is maintained after Democrats agree with the GOP to provide greater funding for US border security given surging cross-border crossings coinciding with an election year. Russia’s prosecution of the war finally pushes Europe to spend 2% of GDP on defense, which is
what Europe agreed to in the 2006 NATO agreement but hasn’t been adhering to. According to our calculations, Europe has underspent on its own defense by $2.0 trillion since 1983, relying on the US to spend instead.
● Due to retirement of dispatchable power generation (nuclear, coal, gas) and underinvestment in pipelines, gas storage and winterization, major US cities will face electricity outages and/or natural gas outages (which are much worse). The North American Electricity Reliability Association just released its 2023 risk assessment. The region NERC highlights as having the greatest risk of power outages, even in normal peak conditions: Midwest MISO, which stretches from Minnesota down to Louisiana. Outage risk in more extreme weather conditions is cited for New York, New England and the entire Western US. NERC cites peak loads rising at “an alarming rate” due to electrification, coinciding with increasingly intermittent new sources of generation (wind and solar power) and 80-110 GW of nuclear and fossil fuel generation retirements by 2033 which is ~7% of current installed capacity. Reserve margins indicate the buffer each region has to a spike in summer demand. Note as well how unplanned outages have been rising during cold weather storms.
Source: EYE ON THE MARKET | OUTLOOK 2024 Pillow Talk - attached pdf document
Since my native language is not English, I need to use a dictionary or look up certain words on the web. When I translated the session into Spanish I found that the word "Stampeded" has several interpretations: forced, to impress, to rush, to stamp, to flight...
Translations
1. From December 30 session in Spanish: Trample (humiliate?)
2. Google translation: "to stamp" (print, mark, swage)
3. Deepl translation: "stampede" (panic, disbandment, flight)
If I use all these words in the Cs message I get several tips depending on the future situation
● In case of a vaccination mandate:
"Hold fast to your network and do not allow yourselves to be forced or externally driven."
● In the case of a traumatic situation (earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, volcanoes etc.) where it is necessary to think what to do next.
"Hold fast to your network and do not allow yourselves to be rushed or externally driven."
● In case the beast appears.
"Hold fast to your network and do not allow yourselves to be marked or externally driven."
● In the event that the.world becomes more Orwellian.
"Hold fast to your network and do not allow yourselves to be trampled or externally driven."
● In the case of any politician promising us salvation.
"Hold fast to your network and do not allow yourselves to be impressed or externally driven."
● The DoJ/FTC win a big antitrust case. After a drought of 20+ years since the Microsoft antitrust caseq, the Department of Justice and/or Federal Trade Commission win one of the big antitrust cases currently underway against Google, Amazon, Meta or T-Mobile.
●President Biden withdraws sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons. Biden passes the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee. Biden has a low approval rating for a President with ~10% job creation since his inauguration, although that figure is the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening US economy.
●Argentine dollarization will fail if implemented. Whenever the Cato Institute, American Enterprise Institute and City Journal agree (like they do on positive prospects for Argentine dollarization), I get suspicious. Argentine President Milei needs a two-thirds majority to pass constitutional reforms required for dollar convertibility.
Furthermore, Argentina would need substantial foreign exchange reserves and much higher savings rates to even try it. But even if these goals were met, dollarization would fail after being implemented.
Convertibility to another currency is generally only workable in places with some combination of the following:
(a) high levels of productivity, flexibility and business dynamism to allow the economy to absorb domestic and external shocks;
(b) white knight lenders such as the ECB and European Commission; and/or (c) substantial
commodity related foreign exchange reserves to defend the currency peg when needed. Argentina has none of these attributes, and while Milei is trying, I doubt he will be able to sufficiently de-Peronize
Argentina. Dollarization would yield to de-dollarization in a fairly short period.
● Russian invasion of Ukraine drags on with no ceasefire in 2024. Despite Russia reportedly losing 87% of its prewar active troops (315,000 killed or injured) and two-thirds of its tanks, there is no ceasefire and the war drags on for another year. Some US financial support for Ukraine is maintained after Democrats agree with the GOP to provide greater funding for US border security given surging cross-border crossings coinciding with an election year. Russia’s prosecution of the war finally pushes Europe to spend 2% of GDP on defense, which is
what Europe agreed to in the 2006 NATO agreement but hasn’t been adhering to. According to our calculations, Europe has underspent on its own defense by $2.0 trillion since 1983, relying on the US to spend instead.
● Due to retirement of dispatchable power generation (nuclear, coal, gas) and underinvestment in pipelines, gas storage and winterization, major US cities will face electricity outages and/or natural gas outages (which are much worse). The North American Electricity Reliability Association just released its 2023 risk assessment. The region NERC highlights as having the greatest risk of power outages, even in normal peak conditions: Midwest MISO, which stretches from Minnesota down to Louisiana. Outage risk in more extreme weather conditions is cited for New York, New England and the entire Western US. NERC cites peak loads rising at “an alarming rate” due to electrification, coinciding with increasingly intermittent new sources of generation (wind and solar power) and 80-110 GW of nuclear and fossil fuel generation retirements by 2033 which is ~7% of current installed capacity. Reserve margins indicate the buffer each region has to a spike in summer demand. Note as well how unplanned outages have been rising during cold weather storms.
● Researchers will complete work on an inhaled COVID vaccine that will sharply reduce transmission. The COVID wave this winter is much milder than the prior three, particularly for those below 75; most of the rise in hospitalizations is attributable to the over 75 cohort. There’s also evidence that the monovalent XBB.1.5 booster works: the Netherlands reports ~70% XBB vaccine efficacy rates with respect to risk of hospitalization and ICU admission even for older people. However, the XBB booster doesn’t do much to prevent transmission; at best it might suppress infection risk by 30%-40% in the first month and then its efficacy vs infection declines.
Source: EYE ON THE MARKET | OUTLOOK 2024 Pillow Talk - attached pdf document
Michael Cembalest's analysis does not take into consideration possible Earth changes which, if they were to become severe this 2024, would undoubtedly put any nation under economic stress or, in an optimistic view, would divert resources spent on war to population relief.
Nor does it take into consideration the worsening conflict in the Middle East. So far Israel has failed in its attempt to bring Iran into a direct confrontation, but that may change very quickly. We know of the Mossad's ability to create false flag events. Is a possible World War within this shocking and unstable period?
Inhaled vaccines would be the straw that breaks the camel's back. More and more people are waking up to the fact that they were duped and this will become more evident when the cleanup begins to occur frequently among people who have had more than two doses religiously. Will we enter a new vaccination period?
Stampeded, trample, mark, stampede...
Nor does it take into consideration the worsening conflict in the Middle East. So far Israel has failed in its attempt to bring Iran into a direct confrontation, but that may change very quickly. We know of the Mossad's ability to create false flag events. Is a possible World War within this shocking and unstable period?
Inhaled vaccines would be the straw that breaks the camel's back. More and more people are waking up to the fact that they were duped and this will become more evident when the cleanup begins to occur frequently among people who have had more than two doses religiously. Will we enter a new vaccination period?
Stampeded, trample, mark, stampede...
Since my native language is not English, I need to use a dictionary or look up certain words on the web. When I translated the session into Spanish I found that the word "Stampeded" has several interpretations: forced, to impress, to rush, to stamp, to flight...
Translations
1. From December 30 session in Spanish: Trample (humiliate?)
2. Google translation: "to stamp" (print, mark, swage)
3. Deepl translation: "stampede" (panic, disbandment, flight)
If I use all these words in the Cs message I get several tips depending on the future situation
● In case of a vaccination mandate:
"Hold fast to your network and do not allow yourselves to be forced or externally driven."
● In the case of a traumatic situation (earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, volcanoes etc.) where it is necessary to think what to do next.
"Hold fast to your network and do not allow yourselves to be rushed or externally driven."
● In case the beast appears.
"Hold fast to your network and do not allow yourselves to be marked or externally driven."
● In the event that the.world becomes more Orwellian.
"Hold fast to your network and do not allow yourselves to be trampled or externally driven."
● In the case of any politician promising us salvation.
"Hold fast to your network and do not allow yourselves to be impressed or externally driven."
