Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 25

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.4 event observed at 0706 UTC from Region 3685 (). The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region​

The following M-class flares followed

● M1 at 08:01 from AR3679 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region.

● M1.2 at 08:24 from AR3685 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region

● M1.4 at 20:25 from AR3679 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over East Pacific Ocean.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794168537654997381

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794172202180628559

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794042024296854006

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793731625957622157

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 100 of which 40 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH) & class
AR3679	8	360 Byd
AR3684	6	80 By
AR3685	14	320 By
AR3686	6	80 B
AR3689	5	10 B
AR3690	1	40 a

a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)

AR3687 is gone

AR3679 is decaying but maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class flares it is already in the far side. AR3684 & AR3685 have beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. All remaining regions have stable magnetic fields

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 60% chance of M flares and 10% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. On May 24, Solar wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 09:40 UTC. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23:48 UTC.​

Aurora Oval Bz: 2.08 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:57 UTC on May 25

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp2 (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 370 km/s pointing north with positive Bz value of 2.08 nT which offers moderate conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) continues to be hot.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1793840511616471527

On May 23 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled levels.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 370 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C3 0436 UT May25
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: HOT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -6.6% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 100 (SN 130 May 24)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 26_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 1726 UTC

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794550724212514887

The total number of sunspots has increased to 106 of which 36 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH) & class
AR3684	1	50 a
AR3685	9	210 B
AR3686	8	110 B
AR3689	5	10 B
AR3690	1	30 a
AR3691	8	300 Byd new
AR3692	4	20 B new

a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)

AR3679 is gone

New region AR3691 (N25E59 ex AR3663) has a beta-gamma-delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class flares. Judging by the amount of white froth (faculae) present, it has decayed heavily while on the farside.​

Old sunspot region 3663, the source of five X-Flares during the previous rotation is now set to turn back into view from behind the northeast limb. It remains to be seen what is left of the formerly active sunspot region and if it is still capable of noteworthy solar flares. We will get a look as we head into the weekend. The other region of even more interest would be old AR 3664, still about four days away from reaching the east limb.SolarHam​

RETURN OF A POTENTIALLY-DANGEROUS SUNSPOT: A sunspot emerging over the sun's northeastern limb appears to be old sunspot AR3663 returning after a 2-week trip around the farside of the sun. In early May, this sunspot unleashed multiple X-class solar flares. SpaceWeather.com​

All remaining regions have stable magnetic fields

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 40% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to levels for the past 24 hours. On May 25, Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 17:44 UTC. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22:26 UTC.
​

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.37 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on May 26

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp2 (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 387 km/s pointing north with negative Bz value of -2.37 nT which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) continues to be hot.

On May 26 Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active levels.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 387 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C3 0049 UT May26
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: HOT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -6.2% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 106 (SN 100 May 25)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Alejo]

I know this is a bit late, but I still wanted to share it.

That last massive storm we were hit with, NOAA and NASA had taken a few pictures from orbit of what the storm looked like over the continental US, some of them are very cool!

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 27_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 1706 UTC from Region 3691 (N29E48).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794902489684414968

The total number of sunspots has increased to 148 of which 40 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH) & class
AR3685	5	270 B
AR3686	4	100 B
AR3689	1	10 a
AR3690	2	30 B
AR3691	17	570 Byd
AR3692	8	70 B
AR3693	3	20 B new

a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)

AR3684 is gone

AR3691 has grown and now the region has a size of 570MH the sunspot continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta that harbors energy for X-class flares.

Incoming next week

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794766839215735216

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 40% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On May 26, Solar wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 00:19 UTC. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20:25 UTC.
​

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.77 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on May 27

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp1 (quiet) The solar wind has a elevated speed of 411 km/s pointing south with negative Bz value of -3.77 nT which offers moderate conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) continues to be hot.

On May 27 Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled levels.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 411 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 5 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C6 0317 UT May27
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: HOT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -5.4% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 148 (SN 106 May 26)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 40% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares.​

Strong X flare maybe from returning sunspot AR3664 :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795017032942989698

THE X FLARE CAUSED A STRONG (R3) RADIO BLACKOUT EVENT; It affected radio signals below 5 MHz over most of Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa, and the Indian Ocean. It is too far east to be geoeffective, so aurora unlikely at this time.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 28_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2.4 event observed at 0708 UTC from ex AR3664 Still on the far side of the sun. See @Olivierlejardinier report.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795302925834846389

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795260844185706586

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795262067899003125

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 116 of which 36 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH) & class
AR3685	3	150 B
AR3686	2	60 B
AR3690	1	30 a
AR3691	15	480 Byd
AR3692	6	40 B
AR3693	4	40 B
AR3695	4	20 B
AR3696	1	10 a

a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)

AR3689 is gone and there is no explanation-for the moment-as to why sunspot AR3694 does not exist in the record.​

INCREASING CHANCE OF FLARES: First, watch this movie. That's sunspot AR3691, which doubled in size yesterday and has developed a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field, which harbors energy for X-class solar flares. With the return of AR3664 this makes two sunspots capable of powerful soon-to-be-Earth-directed explosions. SpaceWeather.com

RETURN OF AN HISTORIC SUNSPOT: It's back. Almost. Sunspot AR3664, the source of the historic May 10th superstorm, has spent the past two week's transiting the farside of the sun. Yesterday, it announced its return with an X2.8-class solar flare. Amateur astronomer Michael Karrer was watching the sun when the explosion occured, and he captured this picture of flying debris:​

​

"I have not seen an explosion like this in my 40 years of observing the sun," says Karrer. "So fast, so far out into space! It was gigantic."​

The explosion caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over east Asia and hurled a bright CME into space. A NASA model of the CME confirms that it will miss Mercury, Venus and Earth. None of the inner planets will be affected by this powerful event.​

How do we know the flare came from AR3664? Helioseismology. The giant sunspot is affecting the way the sun vibrates, and its seismic echoes are visible in maps of the sun's farside:​

​

This helioseismic map shows that AR3664 is just behind the southeastern limb of the sun--a good match for the location of today's X-flare. Clearly, AR3664 is still active as it turns to face Earth again later this week​

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 55% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On May 27, Solar wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 0144 UTC. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 0908 UTC.​

Aurora Oval Bz: Bz: 3.68 nT North


● Current Conditions at 05:23 UTC on May 28

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp1 (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 359 km/s pointing north with a positive Bz value of 3.68 nT which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) continues to be hot.

Sundiving comets

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795264286572622186

On May 28 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled levels.​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 359 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 6 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare :
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: HOT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -5.4% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 116 (SN 148 May 27)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 29_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 1841 UTC from Region 3697 (S18E69).​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795489180992303250

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795631511959634107

The total number of sunspots has increased to 141 of which 51 of them are grouped into 9 active regions as follows:

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH) & class
AR3685	3	110 B
AR3686	3	50 B
AR3690	1	30 a
AR3691	20	400 Byd
AR3692	6	30 B
AR3693	8	50 B
AR3695	4	20 B
AR3696	1	10 a
AR3697	5	250 By new

a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)

AR3691 continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta that harbors energy for strong X-class flares. Ex AR3664 is now AR3697 with a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares. (Although it already produced an X-class flare on the far side).​

A comparison of AR 3664 on May 13th as it approached the southwest limb and on May 29th as it returns into view off the southeast limb. Clearly the region shrunk in size while transiting the farside of the Sun, however it retains some magnetic complexity and will remain a threat for a solar flare above the M5.0 threshold. The region produced numerous mid to upper level C-Flares and one low level M-Flare during the past 24 hours. Imagery by SDO/HMI. SolarHam​

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 60% chance of M flares and 30% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On May 28, Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 23:07 UTC. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19:06 UTC.
​

Aurora Oval Bz: 2.94 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:20 UTC on May 29

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp1 (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 309 km/s pointing north with a positive Bz value of 2.94 nT which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) continues to be hot.

AR3697 has produced a M1.2 at 01:06 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Pacific Ocean.


On May 29 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active levels.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 309 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 5 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1 0106 UT May29
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: HOT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -5.4% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 141 (SN 116 May 28)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

On May 29 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares

Sunspot AR3697, produced another X flare, the X-ray graph suggests that this could be a 'long-lasting' flare :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795838174608138327

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 30_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1.4 event observed at 14:37 UTC from Region 3697 (S18E56). The flare generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over Atlantic Ocean
​

Ex-3664 which is now numbered as sunspot region 3697 is at it again this time with a long duration X1.4 solar flare (R3-strong) that peaked at 14:37 UTC.

The solar flare was eruptive but the region is still very close to the limb so the eruption was not earth-directed as you can see on this animation from the SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph. Sunspot region 3697 will rotate into a more earth-facing position in the days ahead so we might be in for yet another exciting space weather period. This sunspot region keeps on delivering! SpaceWeatherlive.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795867171450433787

Previously AR3697 had produced the following flares:

● M1.4 at 06:45 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India.


● M1.8 at 11:21 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa



● M2.5 at 12:55 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Africa


Subsequently AR3691 produced the following M-class flares

● M2.7 at 18:28 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

● M5.6 at 18:41 UTC the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean​

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 131 of which 50 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows:

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH) & class
AR3690	1	30 a
AR3691	27	300 Byd
AR3692	2	10 a
AR3693	5	40 B
AR3695	8	10 B
AR3696	1	10 a
AR3697	6	400 Byd

a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)

AR3685 & AR3686 are gone

AR3691 continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta that harbors energy for strong X-class flares. AR3697 has grown and has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class flares.

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 35% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On May 29, Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 09:46 UTC. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14:13 UTC.​

Aurora Oval Bz: 2.31 nT North


● Current Conditions at 05:05 UTC on May 30

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp1 (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 362 km/s pointing north with a positive Bz value of 2.31 nT which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) continues to be hot.
​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH (G2): NOAA forecasters say that G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible on May 31st when a CME hurled into space by yesterday's X-flare grazes Earth's magnetic field. This forecast is uncertain. NOAA's model predicts a stiff glancing blow, while NASA's model predicts a miss. If an impact does occur, the resulting storm could extend into June 01. SpaceWeather.com​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1795988753434963986

On May 30 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled levels.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 362 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C5 2247 UT May29
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: HOT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -6.1% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 131 (SN 141 May 29)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 31_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 30/0713Z from Region 3691 (N27W06). The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over India region

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796370197122519343

The total number of sunspots has increased to 144 of which of 64 them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH) & class
AR3690	1	30 a
AR3691	27	300 Byd
AR3692	3	10 a
AR3693	5	30 B
AR3695	8	10 B
AR3696	1	10 a
AR3697	14	420 Byd
AR3698	5	50 b

a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)

AR3691 & AR3697 have unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta that harbors energy for strong X-class flares.

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 35% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. On May 30, Solar wind speed reached a peak of 365 km/s at 00:03 UTC. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21:25 UTC.

● Current Conditions at 04:08 UTC on May 31​

Aurora Oval Bz: -5.99 nT South

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp3 (unsettled) The solar wind has a normal speed of 363 km/s pointing south with a negative Bz value of -5.99 nT which offers good conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) continues to be hot.​

While all eyes have been on sunspots, I for one have been monitoring this large filament channel now directly facing Earth. A series of dense, plasma filled filaments stretching over 500,000 km remains magnetically anchored in place for now. Should one of more of these features become unstable, it could erupt and lead to an Earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME). I will provide further updates whenever necessary. SolarHam

On May 31 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major storm levels.​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 363 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 12 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C9 0337 UT May31
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: HOT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -6.1% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 144 (SN 131 May 30)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

X-FLARE

X1.1 at 22:03 from AR3697 generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean

ANOTHER X-FLARE: Sunspot AR3664 (a.k.a. AR3697) has decayed, but it is still potent. It just emitted another X-flare, the third this week. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash from the X1.1-class explosion:​

​

Radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, briefly causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific side of North America. Signals below 30 MHz faded for as muchch as 30 minutes after the flare's peak (2203 UT).​

This flare may have been too brief to lift a significant CME out of the sun's atmosphere. SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUNE 01_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1.1 event observed at 22:03 UTC from Region 3697 (see previous post).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796703047780860018

Before the X-class flare the region 3697 had produced a M1 the event occurred at 11:20 UTC y the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over West Africa

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796725587660189834

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 135 of which 65 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows:

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH) & class
AR3690	2	20 a
AR3691	21	280 Byd
AR3693	2	10 a
AR3695	2	10 B
AR3697	18	380 Byd
AR3698	11	50 B
AR3699	9	50 B new reg.

a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)

AR3692 & AR3696 are gone

AR3691 & AR3697 have unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta that harbors energy for strong X-class flares.

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 35% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. On May 31, Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 18:19 UTC. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02:08 UTC.
○ Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4)​

Threshold Reached: 04:45 UTC
○ Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5)
Threshold Reached: 05:18 UTC

​

● Current Conditions at 05:50 UTC on June 01

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.72 nT North

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp2 (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 344 km/s pointing north with a positive Bz value of 0.72 nT which offers moderate conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) continues to be hot.​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--CONTINUED:
NOAA forecasters remain confident that a CME will graze Earth's magnetic field on June 1st. It was hurled into space by an X1.4-flare on May 29th. The glancing blow could cause G2-class geomagnetic storms. SpaceWeather.com​

On June 01 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major storm levels.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 344 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C3.4 02:58 UT Jun01
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: HOT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -6.4% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 135 (SN 144 May 31)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.................
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

X-FLARE

X1.4 flare at 08:48 UTC from AR3697 generated a Strong R3 radio blackout. The areas worst affected were Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and India.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796853376019267757

What makes a decaying sunspot like AR3697 so active? This magnetic map provides the answer:​

​

Within the sunspot's primary core, two oppositely-signed magnetic poles are crowded together, + vs. -. When this happens, magnetic recombination can cause very powerful explosions even from a sunspot that's falling apart. NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of X-flares and a 75% chance of M-flares on June 1st. SpaceWeather.com​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796790960875098219

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--CONTINUED: NOAA forecasters remain confident that a CME will graze Earth's magnetic field on June 1st. It was hurled into space by an X1.4-flare on May 29th. The glancing blow could cause G2-class geomagnetic storms. SpaceWeather.com

UPDATE GEOMAGNETIC STORM UNLIKELY

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796870566617440504

 

[Puma]

THREE X-FLARES IN 24 HOURS

X1 flare at 18:36 UTC from AR3697 (S18E21) generated a Strong R3 radio blackout over Americas

https://twitter.com/x/status/1796979786713043228

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUNE 02_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1.4 event observed at 08:48 UTC on June 01 from Region 3697 (see previous post).

Later the same region produced a M7.3 at 19:39 UTC the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Americas. The M7 event was eruptive.

UPDATE​

SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery showing the coronal mass ejection launched by the M7 solar flare. An asymmetrical full halo coronal mass ejection can be seen with a majority of the ejecta heading east. However, the full halo outline suggest there is high chance that part of the plasma cloud will arrive at Earth. More information will come tomorrow. SpaceWeatherlive.com ​

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1797090065824309643

The total number of sunspots has increased to 194 of which 104 of them are grouped into 9 active regions as follows:​

Active Region	Sunspots	Size (MH) & class
AR3690	1	10 a
AR3691	21	220 By
AR3693	2	10 B
AR3695	5	30 B
AR3697	26	380 Byd
AR3698	11	160 B
AR3699	12	120 B
AR3700	17	140 B new reg
AR3701	9	60 B new reg

a (alpha) B (beta) y (gamma) d (delta)

AR3691 is decaying and has lost its delta component, however the current magnetic field of this region harbors energy for M-class flares while AR3697 continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta that harbors energy for X-class flares.

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 35% chance of X flares.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On June 01, Solar wind speed reached a peak of 350 km/s at 03:57 UTC. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03:08 UTC.​

● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on June 02

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.42 nT North

Geomagnetic activity is at Kp1 (quiet) The solar wind has a normal speed of 330 km/s pointing north with a positive Bz value of 1.42 nT which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) continues to be hot.
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X-FLARE AFTER X-FLARE AFTER X-FLARE: Exploding like popcorn, sunspot AR3664 (a.k.a. AR3697) produced three X-flares on May 31st and June 1st. The latest, a long-duration X1-class event, hurled a halo CME almost directly toward Earth.​

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Official forecast models are not yet available for the incoming CME. SOHO coronagraph data are still too fragmentary. However, we can make a good guess for the ETA: June 4th. The impact could produce strong G3-class geomagnetic storms. SpaceWeather.com​

On June 02 Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major storm levels.​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 330 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 1.6 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3.4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C7 2225 UT Jun01
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: HOT
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -5.1% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 194 (SN 135 June 01)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com