The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

XPan

The Living Force
Careful with charts showing “the future”

I noticed regarding GFS snowfall totals which are based on the 00z run from 18 Oct 2021 - how deceiving such prognosis charts can be (due to their rapid changes in every new prognosis every 6 hours, going into an opposite scenario at times)

Ultimately; they are just models. An assumtion.

Why do I say this ? I looked in the snow chart prognosis for Sweden where I live being more familiar with the weather patterns (compared to China i mean) - noticing that GFS predicts up to 2-3 inches of snow for our area in the aforementioned GFS 00z run.


Nope. Nix. No snow.

In the latest run this evening 18z, GFS shows now - no snow what so ever for Stockholm in the next 14 days. What a flip-flop !! Swedish SMHI isn’t indicating any snow either for the next 10 days. Albeit, their own predictions can be pretty crappy beyond day 3-4.

A good orientation would be - skip everything beyond day 4.

It is one of the reason I do not write about expected dramatic weather events (“coming in one week”) in the forum, because it would more often than not, result into noise. GFS is the dramaqueen of predicted future weather up to 14 days - and i have in the past walked into that trap too many times at my own homepage :lol: writing about such (pseudo) events; Up like a sun - falling flat like a pancake. :whistle:


Continental areas

There is of course the option that for continental areas like China, Russia (Siberia) and Mongolia (and north America), weather changes and flows may be a bit easier to predict; in how cyclones and anticyclones are expected to move, being more easily aligned with reality later on.

Yet, for Scandinavia the weather patterns are not really easy to predict beyond day 3 due to the countries position, wedged between the warm Atlantic and cold continental Russia (later Autumn, Winter, and early spring) It usually works better with strong, stable winter anticyclones - and a general prognosis can hold for 5+ days (e.g. permanent overcast weather to be expected, 0°C and with some snowflakes. Tralallaaaa).

So what I wish to point out is, that beyond day 4 - the weather chart predictions become pretty crappy in my opinion.

It tells a tale of computer models are creating beautiful colorful charts. Because they can, not because they are particularly accurate for day 5, 9 or 14.


October is the month

Sure is, that October is the month when snow starts to take over the arctic areas in the North, and winter is attempting to go more southwards. Sometimes it works that early but not every year.


Certain Patterns

One pattern I have noticed is that when bizarre cold air travels southeastwards over North America / East Canada repeatedly - it induces powerful cyclones over the Atlantic on their way to Europe, leading to milder than normal temperatures in Scandinavia, with lots of winds, milder airmasses and clouds keeping the atmosphere mixed (milder temperatures in the lower atmosphere, reaulting into frost free nights in south Sweden. Like a highway of constant cyclonic activity swooping over Scandinavia.

Only when a second cold pole establish itself over northwest Russia, we get thosr really ice cold winters here; then the Atlantic cyclones are being either blocked, or lead in such a way that they pass south of Scandinavia.

Now this was an awful lot about Scandinavia and not Chinese weather :-[ But I can’t speak for China because I am not familiar with their weather patterns and do not wish to utter things without basis.
 

lilies

The Living Force
One quite startling difference I noticed in the years spring, summer and autumn was the lack of flies. All spring/summer I hardly saw/noticed any flesh flies of any size or description, while I saw/noticed no fruit flies at all the whole year
Then all your flies and green stinkbugs migrated to Hungary (West of Ukraine), because we had just sort of a "locust invasion" of all of those. Our apricot tree was swarmed by them. They diligently sucked on the raspberries en masse, brown, green and blackish smaller stinkbug beasts as well! Dunno why were the apricots a "secret base" for them, because they were occupying the fruits, like bees guarding the nest.

Flies everywhere. All sizes. Several models of the smaller ones created frequent swarms as if they were one organism. Lots of fruit flies and all their kindred 'other kinds' that loves to swarm on streets to get on your clothes and hair (into your eyes if you don't wear sunglasses).

Actually all our trees - despite having been sprayed - were attacked by various fruit-fly sized pests. The leaves on one small tree were fully covered with soft, long, tiny white bugs. Fat flesh flies ate our grapewine, then wasps started eating the flies and they continued with the grapewine as well.

Since I'm a movie nerd, I was thanking God / DCM that bugs, flies are not dog-sized or bigger (like in movies), because then we would have been in big trouble!
 
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Metrist

Dagobah Resident
Ice Age Theory

I'm thinking about winter and the snow it brings, and one thing about winter this far north in Alaska, is snow generally falls in the 20°F - 30°F range - any colder then the precipitation cycle is itself frozen. And when it gets real cold, frost clings to the trees. So, for snow to fall in great quantities, something must put all that moisture in the air - because of the suns radiance, it finds its way to a cold front and falls as snow.
So all is within this variance of climate cycles. And it is constant. 24 hour day. A rotation around the sun, geography, the season, ect.
So, volcanoes can account for cooling - putting ash in the atmosphere and blocking the sun. But with cooling comes less radiance and evaporation.
But a meteor impact on an ocean can put into the atmosphere all the water and conditions needed for a ice age to start. And so, an ice age is a result of a large impact. And as bad as the weather has been getting, it is still in variance and will swing to the extremes, but not be the cause of a ice age.
So the theory is - ice age science is the study of meteor impact aftermath more than climatology. The climate slowly erodes the effect by its cyclical permanence.
 

Laura

Administrator
Administrator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
Ice Age Theory

I'm thinking about winter and the snow it brings, and one thing about winter this far north in Alaska, is snow generally falls in the 20°F - 30°F range - any colder then the precipitation cycle is itself frozen. And when it gets real cold, frost clings to the trees. So, for snow to fall in great quantities, something must put all that moisture in the air - because of the suns radiance, it finds its way to a cold front and falls as snow.
So all is within this variance of climate cycles. And it is constant. 24 hour day. A rotation around the sun, geography, the season, ect.
So, volcanoes can account for cooling - putting ash in the atmosphere and blocking the sun. But with cooling comes less radiance and evaporation.
But a meteor impact on an ocean can put into the atmosphere all the water and conditions needed for a ice age to start. And so, an ice age is a result of a large impact. And as bad as the weather has been getting, it is still in variance and will swing to the extremes, but not be the cause of a ice age.
So the theory is - ice age science is the study of meteor impact aftermath more than climatology. The climate slowly erodes the effect by its cyclical permanence.

Yes, I see the problem. It was one that bugged me for a long time. In order to have increased precipitation of any kind, you must have increased evaporation which is a function of heat.

So, it seems to me that the heating of the earth in some manner might solve part of the equation, and we do see that to some extent. Maybe more than a bit, too. Think of all the newly identified things of the past 20 years: atmospheric rivers, strange new types of clouds heavily laden with moisture, 'bombogenesis' etc. And all the erupting volcanoes and heat that is more than likely emanating from within the earth itself if the Cs are to be believed.
 

Mari

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
As for bugs; I have a flat full of small flies, like fruit flies; I believe I´ve "got" them from the dirt/compost from the plants.
I don´t know how to get rid of them but they are really annoying and everywhere. I don´t know if everybody have this issues, I suspect it´s because the dirt in plants.

Flies are also often around, but flesh flies are rare.
And this normal flies, look smaller than normally.
A lots of wasps too...

Green stinkbugs are all over the place and quite annoying! They enter the apartment and zoom around and stick to towels, clothes and so on... I have to be very careful to shake my clothes when they are dried before putting it in the closet.

As for mosquitoes - there isn´t much of them here. Here and there...
But, the ones I saw this year are like 3x bigger than normal ones! I was really surprised by the size of them! Haven´t seen mosquitoes that big before this year - ever!
 

lilies

The Living Force
As for mosquitoes - there isn't much of them here. Here and there...
But, the ones I saw this year are like 3x bigger than normal ones! I was really surprised by the size of them! Haven´t seen mosquitoes that big before this year - ever!
In the western part of our country, where most of the Chernobyl radiation made a landfall, I noticed super large corn, potatoes and XXL-sized mosquitoes: if they got someone, their bite was ugly and left a dark purple mark, big as the small one dollar coin. The bite looked worrisome, like a festering zombie bite.
 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
The current solar cycle moves forward.

Premiered 44 minutes ago


The #tempeteAurore will have been more violent than expected with the bar of 100 km / h crossed in about forty departments of the northern half, with gusts reaching 175 km / h on the Normandy coast! In the land,#vents blew up to 120 or even 130 km / h ...@LCI
And we are not on orange alert? #tempeteAurore #Paris

 

N1mTzo

Jedi
In Moscow, a strong wind damaged the Kremlin wall (a tooth of the wall was broken off):
e40984e2d0d2eb0b5a201505287a67db11df56cc.jpg



In St. Petersburg (and its suburbs), a combination of strong wind and rain led to flooding, more than 400 trees were felled. The water level rose by 134 centimeters and began to subside
In my city, the wind blew off roofs from buildings, I don't remember that.
wr-960.webp



53119b142fe014f7032b53de32ff0ad50da17344_1280_960.jpg.webp-portal



PS Another piece of news about bears in Russia. At least in the St. Petersburg region, they do not sleep! The she-bear and cubs were seen walking near the village houses today (10/22/2021)

 

thorbiorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Quanta Magazine has an article, where the writer, Howard Lee, tries to argue for human generated global warming being the main problem. But he does it in a subtle way, or is it the editor, by listing all the factors he can think of and adds to most points, how CO2 is important in that particular context and with the overall idea that since humans emitting CO2 everything is now different. In this thread, we suspect that the end result will be the return of an Ice Age, and Pierre makes the point of Global Cooling in chapter 24 of the Earth Changes and the Human-Cosmic Connection, but there are other chapters of relevance too.

Since one can encounter the points the Quanta article brings up in discussions in the public, I decided to go through the list and make a few comments based on what I knew, and what I learned in Pierre's books, including the latest Cometary Encounters.

Perhaps one could begin by mentioning a few factors that the author does not mention.
The Thermohaline Circulation
Thermohaline circulation (THC) is a part of the large-scale ocean circulation that is driven by global density gradients created by surface heat and freshwater fluxes.[1][2] The adjective thermohaline derives from thermo- referring to temperature and -haline referring to salt content, factors which together determine the density of sea water.
Ocean Gyres
In oceanography, a gyre (/ˈdʒaɪər/) is any large system of circulating ocean currents, particularly those involved with large wind movements. Gyres are caused by the Coriolis effect; planetary vorticity, horizontal friction and vertical friction determine the circulatory patterns from the wind stress curl (torque).[1]

Gyre can refer to any type of vortex in an atmosphere or a sea,[2] even one that is human-created, but it is most commonly used in terrestrial oceanography to refer to the major ocean systems.
The Gulf Stream is one of the above ocean gyres.
The Gulf Stream, together with its northern extension the North Atlantic Drift, is a warm and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates in the Gulf of Mexico and stretches to the tip of Florida and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States and Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean as the North Atlantic Current.
The circulation of the ocean currents, and the Gulf Stream is described in Earth Changes and the Human-Cosmic Connection in chapter 27 and 28.
The North Atlantic Current
The North Atlantic Current (NAC), also known as North Atlantic Drift and North Atlantic Sea Movement, is a powerful warm western boundary current within the Atlantic Ocean that extends the Gulf Stream northeastward.[1]
The North Atlantic Oscillation
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather phenomenon over the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic.[1] The NAO was discovered through several studies in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.[2] Unlike the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, the NAO is a largely atmospheric mode. It is one of the most important manifestations of climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic and surrounding humid climates.[3]
There are of course a number of other currents in the air and in the oceans, but the above gives an idea.

The article does also not mention comets, though he does mention asteroids. However, one important difference between an asteroid and a comet is that the former have low-eccentric orbits mostly within the orbits of Jupiter, and near the ecliptic plane, while comets have highly eccentric orbits that go beyond, even far beyond the orbit of Jupiter. The comets then can be much more of a surprise than the asteroids, which could be detected if we just zoomed in on the space near us, or not much beyond Jupiter. The comets include the periodic comets, with orbits less than approximately 200 years, long-periodic comets with orbits from 200 to 1000 years. These two groups are still more or less in the ecliptic, the disc like space where the planets also orbit the Sun. After long-period comets come near-parabolic comets, which have periods above 1000 years followed by hyperbolic comets which however move differently making it even more complicated to keep track of them all:
Many of these comets may come from the Oort cloud, or perhaps even have interstellar origin. The Oort Cloud is not gravitationally attracted enough to the Sun to form into a fairly thin disk, like the inner Solar System. Thus, comets originating from the Oort Cloud can come from roughly any orientation (inclination to the ecliptic), and many even have a retrograde orbit.
[...]
Typically comets in the Oort Cloud are thought to have roughly circular orbits around the Sun, but their orbital velocity is so slow that they may easily be perturbed by passing stars and the galactic tide. Astronomers have been discovering weakly hyperbolic comets that were perturbed out of the Oort Cloud since the mid-1800s.


How Earth’s Climate Changes Naturally (and Why Things Are Different Now)
Earth’s climate has fluctuated through deep time, pushed by these 10 different causes. Here’s how each compares with modern climate change.
I'll list them and add comments. The attention of the article lists many factors that affects the climate but weighs them in favor of CO2 emission being the main issue whenever possible. Even asteroid impacts are discussed with regard to CO2, but comets are not mentioned.
One could also say that the focus is kept on climate change, over which it is assumed we have control, rather than to enter into a discussion of Earth changes, over which we have no control.

Solar Cycles
Magnitude
: 0.1 to 0.3 degrees Celsius of cooling

Time frame: 30- to 160-year downturns in solar activity separated by centuries

Every 11 years, the sun’s magnetic field flips, driving an 11-year cycle of solar brightening and dimming. But the variation is small and has a negligible impact on Earth’s climate.

More significant are “grand solar minima,” decades-long periods of reduced solar activity that have occurred 25 times in the last 11,000 years. A recent example, the Maunder minimum, which occurred between 1645 and 1715, saw solar energy drop by 0.04% to 0.08% below the modern average. Scientists long thought the Maunder minimum might have caused the “Little Ice Age,” a cool period from the 15th to the 19th century; they’ve since shown it was too small and occurred at the wrong time to explain the cooling, which probably had more to do with volcanic activity.
Pierre explains in his new book, Cometary Encounters, in the chapter Correlation between Cometary Activity and Volcanic Activity. page 170 how weak solar activity reduces the Earth's binding force, which loosens the tectonic plates, which then are more free to move. It is this movement that leads to earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. With more movement one will have the possibility of more eruptions. See also Earth Changes and the Human-Cosmic Connection chapter 20 and some of the subsequent chapters.

Volcanic Sulfur
Magnitude
: Approximately 0.6 to 2 degrees Celsius of cooling

Time frame: 1 to 20 years

In the year 539 or 540 A.D., the Ilopango volcano in El Salvador exploded so violently that its eruption plume reached high into the stratosphere. Cold summers, drought, famine and plague devastated societies around the world.
[...]
We know the above event, but there are other options than the Volcano, though there is more than one candidate, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_of_535–536 In particular the volcano can't explain:
"In 2009, Dallas Abbott of Columbia University's Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory in New York published evidence from Greenland ice cores that multiple comet impacts may have caused the haze. The spherules found in the ice might originate from terrestrial debris ejected into the atmosphere by an impact event.[1][26]"
A comet impact or even more, does not exclude volcanic activity. See also chapter 34 in Earth Changes and the Human-Cosmic Connection as well as chapters 20, 22 and 23. If we address the sulfur in general, there is a chapter on the subject in Cometary Encounters, it may not only have volcanic origin or originate with a comet, see p. 152-159. Venus is one example, see p. 193.

Short-Term Climate Fluctuations
Magnitude
: Up to 0.15 degrees Celsius

Time frame: 2 to 7 years

On top of seasonal weather patterns, there are other short-term cycles that affect rainfall and temperature. The most significant, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, involves circulation changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean on a time frame of two to seven years that strongly influence rainfall in North America. The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole also produce strong regional effects. Both of these interact with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Orbital Wobbles
Magnitude
: Approximately 6 degrees Celsius in the last 100,000-year cycle; varies through geological time

Time frame: Regular, overlapping cycles of 23,000, 41,000, 100,000, 405,000 and 2,400,000 years

Earth’s orbit wobbles as the sun, the moon and other planets change their relative positions. These cyclical wobbles, called Milankovitch cycles, cause the amount of sunlight to vary at middle latitudes by up to 25% and cause the climate to oscillate. These cycles have operated throughout time, yielding the alternating layers of sediment you see in cliffs and road cuts.

During the Pleistocene epoch, which ended about 11,700 years ago, Milankovitch cycles sent the planet in and out of ice ages. When Earth’s orbit made northern summers warmer than average, vast ice sheets across North America, Europe and Asia melted; when the orbit cooled northern summers, those ice sheets grew again. Since warmer oceans dissolve less carbon dioxide, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rose and fell in concert with these orbital wobbles, amplifying their effects.

Today Earth is approaching another minimum of northern sunlight, so without human carbon dioxide emissions we would be heading into another ice age within the next 1,500 years or so.
[There are illustrations of:
- changes in eccentricity as a 100,000 year cycle.
- axial precession as a 26,000 year cycle
- changes in obliquity as a 41,000 year cycle]
Three kinds of wobble: Earth undergoes cyclical changes in its orbit’s shape, known as eccentricity (top); variations in the direction of the rotational axis, known as precession (middle); and variations in the angle its rotational axis is tilted with respect to the orbital plane, known as obliquity (bottom).
Above, it is interesting that he links to a paper that suggests an ice age within the next 1500 years, if it wasn't for the importance attributed to human generated CO2 emissions that will prevent this ice age. In Cometary Encounters, Pierre argues in part 1, in the chapters on "Wandering Geographic Poles" and "Location of Geographic North Pole before Impact" (p37-44) that the positions of the geographic poles are less stable than usually assumed.

Faint Young Sun
Magnitude
: No net temperature effect

Time frame: Constant

Though the sun’s brightness fluctuates on shorter timescales, it brightens overall by 0.009% per million years, and it has brightened by 48% since the birth of the solar system 4.5 billion years ago.
[...]
These days, the alleged brightness is of less use, considering articles like Dark days: Earth has 'dimmed' by 0.5% since 2017 and scientists aren't sure why. Next the story that CO2 is the main driver. They clearly operate on the premise that changes are slow, while ignoring any recent cataclysmic events. Both of Pierre's books have comments on CO2 if one checks the index.
Carbon Dioxide and the Weathering Thermostat
Magnitude
: Counteracts other changes

Time frame: 100,000 years or longer

The main control knob for Earth’s climate through deep time has been the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, since carbon dioxide is a long-lasting greenhouse gas that blocks heat that tries to rise off the planet.

Volcanoes, metamorphic rocks and the oxidization of carbon in eroded sediments all emit carbon dioxide into the sky, while chemical reactions with silicate minerals remove carbon dioxide and bury it as limestone. The balance between these processes works as a thermostat, because when the climate warms, chemical reactions become more efficient at removing carbon dioxide, putting a brake on the warming. When the climate cools, reactions become less efficient, easing the cooling. Consequently, over the very long term, Earth’s climate has remained relatively stable, providing a habitable environment. In particular, average carbon dioxide levels have declined steadily in response to solar brightening.

However, the weathering thermostat takes hundreds of thousands of years to react to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Earth’s oceans can act somewhat faster to absorb and remove excess carbon, but even that takes millennia and can be overwhelmed, leading to ocean acidification. Each year, the burning of fossil fuels emits about 100 times more carbon dioxide than volcanoes emit — too much too fast for oceans and weathering to neutralize it, which is why our climate is warming and our oceans are acidifying.

Plate Tectonics
Magnitude
: Roughly 30 degrees Celsius over the past 500 million years

Time frame: Millions of years

The rearrangement of land masses on Earth’s crust can slowly shift the weathering thermostat to a new setting.

The planet has generally been cooling for the last 50 million years or so, as plate tectonic collisions thrust up chemically reactive rock like basalt and volcanic ash in the warm, wet tropics, increasing the rate of reactions that draw carbon dioxide from the sky. Additionally, over the last 20 million years, the building of the Himalayas, Andes, Alps and other mountains has more than doubled erosion rates, boosting weathering. Another contributor to the cooling trend was the drifting apart of South America and Tasmania from Antarctica 35.7 million years ago, which initiated a new ocean current around Antarctica. This invigorated ocean circulation and carbon dioxide–consuming plankton; Antarctica’s ice sheets subsequently grew substantially.

Earlier, in the Jurassic and Cretaceous periods, dinosaurs roamed Antarctica because enhanced volcanic activity, in the absence of those mountain chains, sustained carbon dioxide levels around 1,000 parts per million, compared to 415 ppm today. The average temperature of this ice-free world was 5 to 9 degrees Celsius warmer than now, and sea levels were around 250 feet higher.
And now the elephant in the room, as some of the climatologists clearly do not seem to communicate well with the geologists that have done research into cometary impacts. Below is an example of how an impact is translated mainly into something about CO2.
Asteroid Impacts
Magnitude
: Approximately 20 degrees Celsius of cooling followed by 5 degrees Celsius of warming (Chicxulub)

Time frame: Centuries of cooling, 100,000 years of warming (Chicxulub)

The Earth Impact Database recognizes 190 craters with confirmed impact on Earth so far. None had any discernable effect on Earth’s climate except for the Chicxulub impact, which vaporized part of Mexico 66 million years ago, killing off the dinosaurs. Computer modeling suggests that Chicxulub blasted enough dust and sulfur into the upper atmosphere to dim sunlight and cool Earth by more than 20 degrees Celsius, while also acidifying the oceans. The planet took centuries to return to its pre-impact temperature, only to warm by a further 5 degrees Celsius, due to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from vaporized Mexican limestone.

How or whether volcanic activity in India around the same time as the impact exacerbated the climate change and mass extinction remains controversial.
Next
Evolutionary Changes
Magnitude
: Depends on event; about 5 degrees Celsius cooling in late Ordovician (445 million years ago)

Time frame: Millions of years

Occasionally, the evolution of new kinds of life has reset Earth’s thermostat. Photosynthetic cyanobacteria that arose some 3 billion years ago, for instance, began terraforming the planet by emitting oxygen. As they proliferated, oxygen eventually rose in the atmosphere 2.4 billion years ago, while methane and carbon dioxide levels plummeted. This plunged Earth into a series of “snowball” climates for 200 million years.
[...]
One question to the above model of ancient Earth is: how did the cyanobacteria "arise", not to mention more complex life forms? While CO2 may have been important, given what we know about comets, it would seem, their influence ought to be factored in as well. I also wonder if the Earth has always been in the present orbit around the Sun? Has it always been this close or this far away?
Large Igneous Provinces
Magnitude
: Around 3 to 9 degrees Celsius of warming

Time frame: Hundreds of thousands of years

Continent-scale floods of lava and underground magma called large igneous provinces have ushered in many of Earth’s mass extinctions. These igneous events unleashed an arsenal of killers (including acid rain, acid fog, mercury poisoning and destruction of the ozone layer), while also warming the planet by dumping huge quantities of methane and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere more quickly than the weathering thermostat could handle.

In the end-Permian event 252 million years ago, which wiped out 81% of marine species, underground magma ignited Siberian coal, drove up atmospheric carbon dioxide to 8,000 parts per million and raised the temperature by between 5 and 9 degrees Celsius. The more minor Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum event 56 million years ago cooked methane in North Atlantic oil deposits and funneled it into the sky, warming the planet by 5 degrees Celsius and acidifying the ocean; alligators and palms subsequently thrived on Arctic shores. Similar releases of fossil carbon deposits happened in the end-Triassic and the early Jurassic; global warming, ocean dead zones and ocean acidification resulted.
The above point is of volcanic nature, and the underlying causative mechanisms mentioned earlier in connection with "volcanic sulfur" should apply. In the excerpt there is mention of mercury, which also is dealt with in Cometary Encounters p. 139-141 and again p. 150.
 
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Eboard10

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
The article does also not mention comets, though he does mention asteroids. However, one important difference between an asteroid and a comet is that the former have low-eccentric orbits mostly within the orbits of Jupiter, and near the ecliptic plane, while comets have highly eccentric orbits that go beyond, even far beyond the orbit of Jupiter. The comets then can be much more of a surprise than the asteroids, which could be detected if we just zoomed in on the space near us, or not much beyond Jupiter. The comets include the periodic comets, with orbits less than approximately 200 years, long-periodic comets with orbits from 200 to 1000 years. These two groups are still more or less in the ecliptic, the disc like space where the planets also orbit the Sun. After long-period comets come near-parabolic comets, which have periods above 1000 years followed by hyperbolic comets which however move differently making it even more complicated to keep track of them all:
That's the definition according to mainstream science. I had almost forgotten about it myself but Pierre shows how asteroids and comets are really the same objects, the only difference being their electrical charge:

Why didn't Comet ISON melt in the Sun? How NASA and Official Science got it all wrong (again)

So, comets are not "dirty snowballs" after all. From all available data, they are substantially chunks of rock, just like asteroids. In fact, it was acknowledged recently that the difference between 'comets' and 'asteroids' might not be so clear-cut, although efforts to fill in gaps include suggestions that asteroids are comets that retire to the asteroid belt as "extinct rocky comets", and from where they can be "reignited".7 The difference, in the end, is not so much due to chemical or structural composition, i.e. dirty, fluffy, icy comets vs. rocky asteroids. Rather, as has been long suggested by plasma theorists, what differentiates 'comets' from asteroids' is their electrical activity.

When the electric potential difference between an asteroid and the surrounding plasma is not too high, the asteroid exhibits a dark discharge mode8 or no discharge at all. But when the potential difference is high enough, the comet switches to a glowing discharge mode.9 At this point the asteroid is a comet. From this perspective, a comet is simply a glowing asteroid and an asteroid is a non-glowing comet. Thus the very same body can, successively, be a comet, then an asteroid, then a comet, etc., depending on variation in the ambient electric field it is subjected to.10

Regarding the 539-40 AD event, a more recent study places the eruption of the Ilopango volcano around 431 CE instead of 540 CE:

The Tierra Blanca Joven eruption of Ilopango occurred during Maya times but the exact timing and its impact have been controversial. It was thought to be responsible for the anomalously cold decade experienced in the Northern Hemisphere centered at 540 CE, but this date is at odds with archeological evidence that suggests a date near the start of the Early Classic Period (pre-450 CE). Our precise age of 431 ± 2 CE allows us to pinpoint the eruption in proxy records and shows that its impact was apparently limited. It appears to have only had major effects on populations within ∼80 km of the volcano, where the regions were blanketed by decimeters of ash fallout and pyroclastic density currents.
 

treesparrow

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
A heads up about the huge snowstorm currently ongoing in the western mountains of the US. It often seems you have to visit specialized web sites (in this case a ski-oriented one) to obtain solid data regarding the amount of snow accumulating, osit.

----------------------------------------------

Massive October snowstorm dumps up to 42 inches of snow in 36 hours on Sierra Nevada ski resorts


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A huge snowstorm hitting North America's West Coast has dumped up to 105cm (42") on Californian ski slopes in around 36 hours.

The only ski areas currently open already for the 21-22 season in North America are in Colorado, but now California's Mammoth Mountain says it plans to open two weeks earlier than originally intended, this coming Friday, ready for Halloween weekend. It's not yet clear if other areas will open early, Heavenly (pictured top) has indicated its sticking to its original November opening date.

Mt Rose posted the biggest snowfall so far (38-42″ / 95-105cm) but Palisades Tahoe (formerly Squaw Valley) came close saying it had had at least three feet (90cm) at the top of the mountain and posted the image below.

 

thorbiorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
That's the definition according to mainstream science. I had almost forgotten about it myself but Pierre shows how asteroids and comets are really the same objects, the only difference being their electrical charge:
That is true, and thank you, @Eboard10, for bringing it up. I will add some more details.

The difference between comets and asteroids is also mentioned in Earth Changes and the Human-Cosmic Connection p. 85 and in Cometary Encounters p. 127. I have copied the following from the article: Volcanoes, Earthquakes And The 3,600 Year Comet Cycle where there is an illustration:
Solar electric field and cometary orbit
© sott.net Solar electric field and cometary orbit
In the drawing above, we can see a cometary trajectory (dotted red curve) which passes through different electric field lines (illustrated by the concentric circles numbered +1, +2, +3, ...) .

An electric field line defines locations where the electric potential is the same. It's similar to the altitude lines on a geographic map where every point of the line is at the same altitude.

These changes in electric potential difference between the comet and its surrounding space triggers intense current including electric discharges between the comet and its surrounding space, leading to a overheated and glowing cometary body. That's why an astronomical body following a very elliptical orbit around the Sun with a 3,600 year period can not be a planet but has to be a comet.

Conversely, the electric potential at a given distance from the Sun being roughly the same, the astronomic bodies following a circular or slightly elliptic orbit, will go through space exhibiting a constant electric potential. Therefore there is a balance between the electric potential of the body and the surrounding space. In this case, no discharge occurs and the astronomical body doesn't glow.

In this sense, the fundamental difference between a comet and planet is not a matter of composition but a matter of electrical activity (which is related, among other factors to the eccentricity of the orbit).
"among other factors to the eccentricity of the orbit" On the Wiki for Orbital eccentricity, one finds about the orbits of asteroids:
Most of the Solar System's asteroids have orbital eccentricities between 0 and 0.35 with an average value of 0.17.[2] Their comparatively high eccentricities are probably due to the influence of Jupiter and to past collisions.
And about the orbits of comets:
Comets have very different values of eccentricity. Periodic comets have eccentricities mostly between 0.2 and 0.7,[4] but some of them have highly eccentric elliptical orbits with eccentricities just below 1; for example, Halley's Comet has a value of 0.967. Non-periodic comets follow near-parabolic orbits and thus have eccentricities even closer to 1.
In other words, the usual orbital eccentricity is 0 to 0.35 for asteroids, and 0.2 to 1 for comets. This means there is an overlap, and in addition, there are even a few asteroids with fairly high eccentricities like Eris (0.44) and Sedna (0.85). Maybe the overlap is due to surrounding objects or past orbit or the composition, just like the Wiki on capacitor types mentions different designs and materials for different purposes and charge ranges. From everyday experience with static electricity, we know that some materials and people can build up charge differently.

Similarly, one can imagine that differences in composition and structure of an asteroid or comet would give rise to different electrical properties. On Earth for instance some engineers and geologists work with electrical resistivity tomography where the Wiki explains:
Electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) or electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) is a geophysical technique for imaging sub-surface structures from electrical resistivity measurements made at the surface, or by electrodes in one or more boreholes. If the electrodes are suspended in the boreholes, deeper sections can be investigated. It is closely related to the medical imaging technique electrical impedance tomography (EIT), and mathematically is the same inverse problem. In contrast to medical EIT, however, ERT is essentially a direct current method. A related geophysical method, induced polarization (or spectral induced polarization), measures the transient response and aims to determine the subsurface chargeability properties. Electrical resistivity measurements can be used for identification and quantification of depth of groundwater, detection of clays, and measurement of groundwater conductivity.[1]
Where the term electrical resistivity is explained as:
Electrical resistivity (also called specific electrical resistance or volume resistivity) is a fundamental property of a material that measures how strongly it resists electric current. A low resistivity indicates a material that readily allows electric current. Resistivity is commonly represented by the Greek letter ρ (rho). The SI unit of electrical resistivity is the ohm-meter (Ω⋅m).[1][2][3] For example, if a 1 m solid cube of material has sheet contacts on two opposite faces, and the resistance between these contacts is 1 Ω, then the resistivity of the material is 1 Ω⋅m.

Electrical conductivity or specific conductance is the reciprocal of electrical resistivity. It represents a material's ability to conduct electric current. It is commonly signified by the Greek letter σ (sigma), but κ (kappa) (especially in electrical engineering) and γ (gamma) are sometimes used. The SI unit of electrical conductivity is siemens per metre (S/m).
There may be other factors that can explain the differences in behavior among the comets and asteroids with overlapping eccentricity. There may also be some research, but I will leave the subject here.
Regarding the 539-40 AD event, a more recent study places the eruption of the Ilopango volcano around 431 CE instead of 540 CE:
Thank you for updating the information, let's see what explanation Quanta comes up with next time they update their article.
 
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