The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

[treesparrow]

More on the Alaska snow forecast briefly mention in post above (#2,015). Here's a tweet that went out on Oct 31ST:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1454804944238878726

I wonder if something in the order of 28 feet of snow did eventually materialise?

 

[Mike]

Might not be a bad idea for each person in a household, depending on where exactly you live, to have something like this on-hand. Who knows how bad this winter is going to be and what energy will be available and also what future winters might look like.

20 Best Cold Weather Sleeping Bags

A winter camping essential.

gearmoose.com

 

[Metrist]

About the heavy snowfall...

In Alaska, and other places for that matter... It is often the case that these places that have these exceptional snowfalls - always experience heavy snowfalls. That's why they put ski resorts there.

So, if you see articles about deep snow at Alyeska, or places in California like Donner Pass, ect., it is in places where heavy snow is common.

I live about 50 miles from Alyeska, and there is only trace amounts of snow on the ground left over from our two modest snowfalls. And it is between 35°F and 40°F - which seems above average, but not too far from normal.

As far as cooler than normal, that might be the case in Fairbanks, where UAF is, which is historically very cold, and so that too is not extraordinary.

So, Alaska is a large state with varied weather, and while it seems extraordinary, this news of the weather is happening in places where you would expect it. So it seems a little hyped, given the locations.

 

[treesparrow]

About the heavy snowfall...

In Alaska, and other places for that matter... It is often the case that these places that have these exceptional snowfalls - always experience heavy snowfalls. That's why they put ski resorts there.

So, if you see articles about deep snow at Alyeska, or places in California like Donner Pass, ect., it is in places where heavy snow is common.

I live about 50 miles from Alyeska, and there is only trace amounts of snow on the ground left over from our two modest snowfalls. And it is between 35°F and 40°F - which seems above average, but not too far from normal.

As far as cooler than normal, that might be the case in Fairbanks, where UAF is, which is historically very cold, and so that too is not extraordinary.

So, Alaska is a large state with varied weather, and while it seems extraordinary, this news of the weather is happening in places where you would expect it. So it seems a little hyped, given the locations.

The question can be asked however if this amount of heavy snow common for the time of year (late Oct/early Nov) in the region? (Granted that it's happening at higher elevations).

 

[Oxajil]

Dutch weather site writes that the conditions preceding winter are similar to those from 1962. The year 1962-63 saw the coldest winter (also known as the 'Big Freeze of 1963'). They write that in 1962-63 "there was ice on the North Sea (up to 4 kilometers from the coast), the major rivers were frozen over and on the IJsselmeer (lake) there was an ice layer of 80 centimeters that could hold thousands of cars." The conditions are also similar to those from 2010, when the country experienced a cold December with lots of snow. So we may experience another 'big freeze' and/or at least lots of snow. It's just a prediction, of course, but thought it was interesting to mention!

 

[Metrist]

The question can be asked however if this amount of heavy snow common for the time of year (late Oct/early Nov) in the region? (Granted that it's happening at higher elevations).

We had a freak snowfall in the middle of Sept., and that was newsworthy because the trees still had all their leaves and a couple inches of heavy, wet snow caused them to slump and cause widespread power outages. But aside from that, the season is timely and if anything, warmer.
Is it common? It might be early, and a little much, but not a surprise. The area is known for avalanches that often close the main highway. The highway dept. often shoots cannons to create avalanches before the snow builds up too much - averting much larger ones.
The area is also near Whittier - a military post whose location was chosen because it was always enshrouded in cloud cover - making it a secret from Japanese planes during WWII.

 

[Debra]

So now those recently discovered "atmospheric rivers" are going to be dumping snow? Hoo boy! Things are most definitely getting interesting.

Kinda sorta, the term “atmospheric river” has been used occasionally since the 90’s. It used to be called the “Pineapple Express” a name that’s has recently been out of favor. Probably something to do with pineapples being offended ...

During the autumn and winter months the flow of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, via the jet stream that passes over Hawaii, has always delivered a huge amount of precipitation to the west coast. Here is a older non politically correct photo with the old term:

There was a recent front called a cyclone bomb,stalled off shore mid way between the Vancouver islands and Alaska, and that disturbance seemed to split the river of moisture in two and a large flow curled up, and hit the cold atmosphere of upper Alaska.
At least, that’s what I deduced from watching the pattern over the last few weeks.

 

[Voyageur]

So, Alaska is a large state with varied weather, and while it seems extraordinary, this news of the weather is happening in places where you would expect it.

The question can be asked however if this amount of heavy snow common for the time of year (late Oct/early Nov) in the region? (Granted that it's happening at higher elevations).

Mountain areas are interesting, providing such valley to valley vast differences while attracting their own weather.

In terms of snowfall amounts, in Alaska and elsewhere, some areas have very high standard measures for roof trusses (pounds per square foot) on account of this; somewhere reading it was around 340 + pounds per square foot in some areas of Alaska, while Texas might be 20 pounds per square foot, it tells a story - that is over the long run of a season, too. So agree with treesparrow, that those early amounts seem somewhat anomalous as there is a lot of possible buildup to come through the winter.

If you can, keep an eye out up there for this, Metrist. It would be interesting to know what takes place and where. Here is the Alaskan snow dept day to day site, and despite the forecast above, it does not show big hits as of yet, yet localized might be different.

Perhaps this comment in the last session may have crossover with snow:

Q: (nicklebleu and his wife): It has been said that wind has decreased in recent times. Is that true?

A: In some places. Has increased in others. Also it is more compacted.

Take compacted to mean densely localized (and increased).

 

[Laura]

Meanwhile:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/blockbuster-lake-effect-snow-northern-michigan/1042926

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/marine-heat-wave-nyc-heavy-rainfall/1041387

 

[Mari]

My mother always says (that the old people said ) that a tit bird is a bringer of the winter: when you see tits coming near the house - the winter is coming.

Here is photo of a green tit so you know what kind of bird I´m talking about. They are one of my top favorite birds!

Well, not only that I see a lot of tits on my window and on my balcony and listen to their argues for weeks now, today one came in the apartment through the opened window. The window was crack open and she came in!

I almost cried when I saw her as she was flying back and forth, slamming in the window, while in the mean time - another tit came to check on her, watching her trough the window.

My man opened the window in a slow and steady pace, so she is not disturbed more than she is and she flew of.

My heart still hurts when I remember how much stress she had....

Talk about signs of the winter!

 

[Mike]

From one of the articles that Laura posted today:

The city's rainfall tally thus far this year ranks third-highest. (...)

AccuWeather forecasters say a marine heat wave over a portion of the Atlantic Ocean, just off the United States coast between Delaware and eastern New England, led to an overabundance of moist air across portions of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the second half of the year and is likely a key factor in the severity and frequency of heavy rain events.

This current surge of warm water can be traced back to July 2020. It became warmer and progressively widespread during this past summer, according to Pastelok.

"This warm body of water has lasted through big storms this season and has not been ruffled," Pastelok said. He noted that had there been multiple storms moving south to north from the tropics during the past several months, then perhaps this area may have cooled.

"It may take several big nor’easters to really knock down these water temperatures," he said. Although AccuWeather's long-range team is forecasting the potential for a few big storms this year, which may lower sea-surface temperatures late this winter, there can be more warm surges at any time going forward, he added.

So if this article is correct about what a key factor or part of the cause of the 3rd most rainfall ever in NYC is (and we have two months to go), which they content is increased moisture from a warm water wave in the Atlantic off the US, and that situation does not seem to have changed, then as we move into winter and possibly get one of those big polar vortexes dipping down into the Eastern US, then the Northeast US might get some really big snow storms with the combination of moisture and extreme cold coming together.

 

[Laura]

So if this article is correct about what a key factor or part of the cause of the 3rd most rainfall ever in NYC is (and we have two months to go), which they content is increased moisture from a warm water wave in the Atlantic off the US, and that situation does not seem to have changed, then as we move into winter and possibly get one of those big polar vortexes dipping down into the Eastern US, then the Northeast US might get some really big snow storms with the combination of moisture and extreme cold coming together.

Not only that, but it makes one wonder if the warm water is piling up there because it isn't moving around in the normal Gulf Stream pattern? Is the Gulf Stream broken?

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456507567400579072

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456437986472579075

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456336889221455884

Today we ski at La Pierre St Martin about 20cm @janisagi#bearn#pyrenees
Wax on!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456373202318462976

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456275991395856396

First impressions of the snow on the #Oberalppass . They are between 25 and 40cm #Schnee

https://twitter.com/Alpenweerman/status/1456251378922401796

With the influx of polar air, it can cool down considerably in the coming nights under a clear sky and with little wind above the snow. This applies in particular to the higher valleys. It can freeze severely to very severe there. Photo weather station #Rosswald

 

[treesparrow]

Early and from the look of it heavy snowfall in Morocco:

Also in Algeria (where I believe snowfall in general is less common than in Morocco):

Meanwhile not so very far away from North Africa, parts Saudi Arabia have been covered by a thick blanket of hailstones:

 

[Ca.]

New snow totals for the next 24 hr. through the next ten days.

Professional weather forecast

50+ weather layers, weather radar and satellite

www.windy.com

Bay Area weather service posts model with timing for storm

Where is the rain? A weather model shows it's on the way to the Bay Area.

www.sfgate.com

End snip:

The latest forecast released by the weather service shows rainfall increasing in intensity after sunset, with the heaviest period likely occurring over the North Bay from 7 p.m. to 11 p.m.; Santa Cruz Mountains, 9 p.m. to 2 a.m.; and along the Santa Lucia Range (Monterey County coast) between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m.

"While widespread flooding concerns are not anticipated, rain rates may reach or exceed 0.50 [inch] per hour during these periods of time," the weather service said. "Thus, we will be closely monitoring conditions for isolated flooding/debris flow concerns."

The rain and wind come as a deep trough of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska guides a plume of moisture toward the California coast, the weather service said.

The agency released projected rain fall totals for the storm, forecasting 3 to 4 inches of rain in the wettest coastal range regions, from Cazadero to Mount Tamalpais, and over the Santa Cruz Mountains, including the CZU August Lightning Complex burn scar; 1.5 to 2.5 inches in the North Bay valleys; 1 to 2 inches in the East Bay hills, northern Monterey Bay and Big Sur area; 1 to 1.5 inches around San Francisco and the bay shore; 0.25 to 0.50 inches around the South Bay and Monterey Bay; and less than 0.25 inches for the interior Central Coast.

A wind advisory is in effect through early Tuesday with sustained gusts of 20 to 30 mph and isolated gusts up to 45 mph possible.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457910831304298500

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457694557110300676

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Reno NV
211 PM PST Mon Nov 8 2021

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457848326259286021

Early winter snow in northern China threatens to deepen energy crisis - Beijing snowfall 23 days earlier than average

The climate phenomenon known as La Niña brought early snow amid plunging temperatures across northern China on the weekend as the country struggles with the worst energy crisis in a decade. Large parts of the country, including Beijing, Tianjin,...

www.sott.net

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457758823192608772

Earth Changes ​

• Early snowfall in Morocco
• Early snowfall hits Algeria