The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

[angelburst29]

Happened upon this interesting site: Climate news from Germany in English - by Pierre L. Gosselin

Ice Breaker Which Helped Rescue Turney’s “Ship Of Fools” Gets Jammed In Meters-Thick Summertime Antarctic Sea Ice!
http://notrickszone.com/2016/02/29/ice-breaker-which-helped-rescue-turneys-ship-of-fools-gets-jammed-in-meters-thick-summertime-antarctic-sea-ice/#sthash.kzLdtPfQ.v8H2NrYd.dpbs

By P Gosselin on 29. February 2016

Schneefan at German skeptic site wobleibtdieerderwaermung.de here writes about how yet another ice-breaker has gotten stuck in summertime Antarctic sea ice.

https://wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung.wordpress.com/2016/02/25/sommer-in-der-antarktis-eisbrecher-eingefroren-68-menschen-sitzen-im-schneesturm-fest/

The Antarctic “Aurora Australis” with 68 people on board became stranded in sea ice in the West Arm in Horseshoe Harbour last Wednesday, and rescue efforts were prevented by a snowstorm. According to reports that the ship’s rump has a tear, but its structural integrity is thought not to be at risk.

The problem: Too much ice!

For some readers the Aurora Australis may ring a bell. This is because it is the ice breaker that ultimately helped rescue the 52-person crew on board the sea-ice trapped research vessel Akademik Shokalskiy which ferried a global warming/polar ice melt expedition led by a hapless Prof. Chris Turney back in early 2014. That expedition devolved into a highly publicized folly attracting much worldwide ridicule. Eventually a helicopter from the Chinese ice breaker Xue Long succeeded ferrying Turney and his crew to safety.

Today the German Handelsblatt here reports that 37 scientists on board the Aurora Australis were rescued on Friday and that the remaining crew has stayed on board in order to try to free the injured ship.

http://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/forschung-innovation/aurora-australis-forscher-von-eisbrecher-in-der-antarktis-gerettet-/13021904.html

Schneefan writes that it should be clear to global warming/polar researchers that sea ice at the South Pole is not melting, but has in fact been growing for 37 years!

Arctic sea ice, surrounded by large land masses has, on the other hand, been declining:
Source: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/


Icebreaker Aurora Australis Runs Aground, U.S. Ski Plane Dispatched (Video)
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/icebreaker-aurora-australis-runs-aground-u-s-ski-plane-dispatched-n525476

Feb. 25, 2016 - A ski-equipped U.S. airplane will be called in to extract some 30 people from an Antarctic research station after the icebreaker set to take them home ran aground in a blizzard, officials said Thursday.

The specialist Lockheed LC-130 aircraft will transport the group while attempts to re-float Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis continued to be hampered by bad weather, the Australian government's Antarctic Division said in a statement.

The LC-130 is flown by the U.S. Antarctic Program and has giant skis instead of wheels. It is specially designed to operate on snow and ice and can also use rockets to assist its takeoff on rough terrain.

In the next few days the plane will transport the 30-strong group from Davis to Casey research stations, two facilities run by Australia on the Indian Ocean side of Antarctica. They will then be flown home by the Australian Antarctic Division's A319 Airbus.

The Aurora Australis is owned by P&O Maritime Services but is chartered by the Australian Antarctic Division. It ran aground after a blizzard caused it to break free from its mooring lines at 9:15 a.m. local time Wednesday (11:15 p.m. ET Tuesday).


Australian Icebreaker Refloated In Antarctica After Grounding
http://www.newsjs.com/url.php?p=http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/australian-icebreaker-refloated-in-antarctica-after-grounding-1281769

Feb. 27, 2016 - Sydney, Australia: An Australian icebreaker that ran aground in Antarctica during a blizzard has been successfully refloated, officials said Saturday.

The Aurora Australis ran aground with 68 people on board after breaking its moorings on Wednesday and was stuck on rocks at Horseshoe Harbour, close to Australia's Mawson station.

"The Aurora Australis has been successfully refloated and has made its way out of Mawson harbour," the Australian Antarctic Division said in a statement.

"The ship now remains in the vicinity of Mawson research station, where crew will conduct a thorough assessment of damage over the coming days."

The 37 expeditioners onboard were rescued by barge on Friday, and the crew remained to refloat the ship.

There was no sign of any oil pollution from the ship, which was refloated late Friday on the rising tide by the P&O Maritime crew using the vessel's ballast system and work boats.

The Australian Antarctic Division is discussing with other Antarctic programmes how to transfer the expeditioners, currently at Mawson station, back to Australia.

The United States Antarctic programme has already pitched in to take more than 30 expeditioners from another of Australia's stations, Davis, later Saturday to Casey station, some 1,500 kilometres (950 miles) away, by plane.

The group had been scheduled to return to Australia on the Aurora Australis after a southern hemisphere summer in Antarctica. They are now expected to be flown home on an AAD plane in the coming days.

 

[Eol]

<sniiiiiip>

And he also predicted a tropospheric cooling for the future / in opposite with a stratospheric warming with can be connected with what Gérald Messadié said :

the rapid growth of the differences between the troposphere and the upper layers can not proceed beyond a certain limit, as indicated by the laws of thermodynamics. An inversion can occur and even brutally.

This cooling of the uper atmosphere is realy fascinating. I know this subject only since a few months and i find very suspicious that we talk all day about the anthropogenic warming and very little about this cooling.

I've been thinking about this idea of upper atmosphere heating followed by an inversion. I think this is contradicted by plain evidence. Specifically, the increasing appearances of nacreous clouds at lower latitudes as well as the increase of contrails due to upper atmosphere cooling and that cooler air sinking lower, compressing the troposphere where the heating from within the earth is contained. [...]

There are probably more articles on sott that need a different search term to pull them up and undoubtedly many that we missed from the larger media.

Notice the "pat answers" that are formulated and included, more or less, in each of the reports. And the early attribution to "global warming."

Yeah, I think a sudden, brutal inversion is possible, it just ain't gonna be a hot stratosphere... just the opposite.

I saw this and it a reminded me of the above discussion. Now i'm not that up on the subject to comment, but this was released by the UK Met office AND we are due for snow/wintry conditions, so they say, and Piers Corbyn predicted snow in February. It has gotten much colder in the last week or two.

Either way, this is what the mainstream are saying:

Could sudden stratospheric warming bring a cold start to spring?
29 02 2016
http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/02/29/could-sudden-stratospheric-warming-bring-a-cold-start-to-spring/
Our atmospheric scientists are predicting a dramatic change in high altitude winds 50km above the ground and the imminent occurrence of an event known as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in early March.

Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction explains: “Sudden stratospheric warming events occur high up in the atmosphere and involve a complete reversal of the high altitude polar jet stream – they can even affect weather at the surface, and for the UK a sudden stratospheric warming increases the risk of wintry weather.”

The phenomenon begins with a wave-like disturbance which travels up into the high-altitude jet stream. Scaife said: “This disturbance can grow to a point where it turns over and breaks, just like a wave on a beach.”

Normally the jet stream flows from west to east with some north and south oscillation, but the force from this high altitude disturbance pushes against the jet stream until the winds actually reverse and flow from east to west instead. Air then falls into the Arctic and is compressed so that it starts to warm: the temperature can rise by as much as 50C in just a few days.

Professor Scaife added: “This reversal of high altitude winds can also burrow down into the lower stratosphere. Once it is within reach of weather systems in the lower atmosphere the Atlantic jet stream often weakens and moves south. This allows cold air from the east into northern Europe and the UK.”

Sudden stratospheric warming events occur on average every couple of years and our long-range forecasts have consistently suggested an increased risk of sudden stratospheric warming towards the end of this winter. The last big event was in early 2013 and was followed by a cold end to winter. Although the impact of the current event is unlikely to be as severe, it increases the risk of cold north easterlies and wintry weather for the UK over the next few weeks.

Does this mean we’ll see snow at Easter?
You may have seen in the media that we will see snow at Easter. At this stage it is too early to provide details about what the weather will bring for Easter. Beyond a week ahead we can’t say what will happen on specific days, but we can give an idea of what type of weather we can expect.

As always we are working with our customers such as EasyJet and other major airlines, airports such as Heathrow and Gatwick, local councils, and energy providers, together with government partners in Highways England and Transport Scotland to ensure they are prepared for the current wintry conditions and whatever the weather may bring in the coming weeks.


The accompanying video explaining (2mins):

http://<iframe width="560" height="...a4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Major SSWs are also increasing this past years. The phenomena in itself remain poorly understood. I have read a lot about this and it seems that the jet stream, SSWs and the polar vortex are connected. But not in the way said by Professor Adam Scaife. It is rather a weakening in the jet stream who generate wave of geat amplitude (gravity or Rossby waves) in the troposhpere which can carried a great energy potential and can break in the stratosphere, heating the layer and perturbating the polar stratospheric vortex which has an impact on the tropospheric vortex.

And the weaking of the jet stream this past years can be explained mainly by the decrased in the sun activity/atmospheric conductivity (What Pierre explain in his book). (other variables can come into play)
Some scientists have also make a connection between the jet stream and the sun's activity by the magnetic field's line. More activity related to more energetic particules reaching the poles which strengthens the polar jets. The opposite occure whith less solar activity.

 

[jar]

Well this morning the temperature is -17 degrees fahrenheit and the wind is blowing, so I cannot even imagine how cold it will feel outside today. Fortunately, it has been a mild (very mild) winter for us here in northern Massachusetts. Not much snow and a few days of bitter cold. And it's mid-February!!! On Tuesday, the weather forecast is for 50 degrees F. I can only imagine what these extremes of temperature are doing to the land.

Yeah we definitely lucked out this year in central Massachusetts. Talk about ebb and flow last winter we had about 10 feet of snow, this year about a foot with mild temperatures.

 

[Eol]

Just for illustrate about the SSW previously mentionned :

We can see that the stratospheric vortex split in two entity. the major one is located above the UK. So we can expect that 'cold conditions' can arise within 2 weeks.

 

[Pierre]

Emissions of sulfur dioxide is a documented precursor of volcanic eruptions (and we know how correlated volcanic eruptions and quakes are):

_https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_of_volcanic_activity

As magma nears the surface and its pressure decreases, gases escape. This process is much like what happens when you open a bottle of fizzy drink and carbon dioxide escapes. Sulphur dioxide is one of the main components of volcanic gases, and increasing amounts of it herald the arrival of increasing amounts of magma near the surface. For example, on May 13, 1991, an increasing amount of sulphur dioxide was released from Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines. On May 28, just two weeks later, sulphur dioxide emissions had increased to 5,000 tonnes, ten times the earlier amount. Mount Pinatubo later erupted on June 12, 1991. On several occasions, such as before the Mount Pinatubo eruption and the 1993 Galeras, Colombia eruption, sulphur dioxide emissions have dropped to low levels prior to eruptions. Most scientists believe that this drop in gas levels is caused by the sealing of gas passages by hardened magma. Such an event leads to increased pressure in the volcano's plumbing system and an increased chance of an explosive eruption.

Very interesting. So, considering the video, if there is indeed an explosion or earthquake in the making on the US west coast, it could be as early as within a month, and a sign of it being imminent could be a drop on the now increased gases.

It could happen quickly or later or not at all according to this excerpt from 'Volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis':

The high sulphur dioxide from Mount Etna in 1989 was a precursor that preceded the eruption by more two years, but some volcanoes pass through similar degassing crisis without the ensuing eruption

So, wait and see!

Well quite interesting indeed, but notice that what the guy has discovered there is the surface concentraion of Carbon Monoxide and not Sulfor Dioxide...

If I'm not mistaken, the video also deals with sulphur dioxide concentrations. Here is a screenshot below (video 2:07) where I circled in blue the monitored type of gas (SO2) and high concentration areas:

The surface concentration of Carbon Monoxide is still pretty high in that area:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/02/26/0000Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/winkel3/loc=-18.314,8.199

Any other place that has similar amounts right now is the east coast of china (near north korea and japan).

By far the higest concentration of Carbon Dioxide is currently also on that US spot:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/02/26/0000Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/winkel3/loc=-18.314,8.199

In regards to Sulfur Dioxide, it seems to be more all over the place (in the world):
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/02/26/0000Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=so2smass/winkel3/loc=-18.314,8.199

What is quite interesting though, is the fact that that that US-Zone, where the Carbon Dioxide and Carbon Monoxide levels are very high right now, is right where the "Big One" is expected to happen. And the big methane leak, that is currently happening in the US, is right at that spot too:

https://www.edf.org/climate/aliso-canyon-leak-sheds-light-national-problem
https://www.google.de/maps/place/Aliso+Canyon,+Los+Angeles,+CA+91344,+USA/@31.9642914,-119.3945531,5.25z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x80c29ad0c40f5009:0xbddb70cb3c384f20

And wikipedia tells us about Carbon monoxide:

Carbon monoxide occurs dissolved in molten volcanic rock at high pressures in the Earth's mantle.[47] Because natural sources of carbon monoxide are so variable from year to year, it is extremely difficult to accurately measure natural emissions of the gas.

Carbon monoxide is a short-lived greenhouse gas and also has an indirect radiative forcing effect by elevating concentrations of methane and tropospheric ozone through chemical reactions with other atmospheric constituents (e.g., the hydroxyl radical, OH.) that would otherwise destroy them.[48] Through natural processes in the atmosphere, it is eventually oxidized to carbon dioxide. Carbon monoxide is both short-lived in the atmosphere (on average about two months) and spatially variable in concentration.

And about Carbon Dioxide Wikipedia tells us:

The combustion of all carbon-based fuels, such as methane (natural gas), petroleum distillates (gasoline, diesel, kerosene, propane), coal, wood and generic organic matter produces carbon dioxide and, except in the case of pure carbon, water. As an example, the chemical reaction between methane and oxygen is given below. [...]

Carbon dioxide is a byproduct of the industrial production of hydrogen by steam reforming and ammonia synthesis. These processes begin with the reaction of water and natural gas (mainly methane).[24]

Acids liberate CO2 from most metal carbonates. Consequently, it may be obtained directly from natural carbon dioxide springs, where it is produced by the action of acidified water on limestone or dolomite. The reaction between hydrochloric acid and calcium carbonate (limestone or chalk) is shown below:

[...]

Such reactions are accompanied by foaming or bubbling, or both, as the gas is released. They have widespread uses in industry because they can be used to neutralize waste acid streams.

[...]

Coal bed methane recovery:

In enhanced coal bed methane recovery, carbon dioxide would be pumped into the coal seam to displace methane, as opposed to current methods which primarily rely on the removal of water (to reduce pressure) to make the coal seam release its trapped methane.[42]

[...]

In Earth's atmosphere:

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere is a trace gas, currently (early 2016) having an average concentration of 402 parts per million by volume[3] (or 611 parts per million by mass). Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide fluctuate slightly with the seasons, falling during the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer as plants consume the gas and rising during northern autumn and winter as plants go dormant or die and decay. Concentrations also vary on a regional basis, most strongly near the ground with much smaller variations aloft. In urban areas concentrations are generally higher[44] and indoors they can reach 10 times background levels.

Combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation have caused the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide to increase by about 43% since the beginning of the age of industrialization.[46] Most carbon dioxide from human activities is released from burning coal and other fossil fuels. Other human activities, including deforestation, biomass burning, and cement production also produce carbon dioxide. Volcanoes emit between 0.2 and 0.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year, while human activities emit about 29 billion tons.[47]

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, absorbing and emitting infrared radiation at its two infrared-active vibrational frequencies (see Structure and bonding above). This process causes carbon dioxide to warm the surface and lower atmosphere, while cooling the upper atmosphere. The increase in atmospheric concentration of CO2, and thus in the CO2-induced greenhouse effect, is the reason for the rise in average global temperature since the mid-20th century. Although carbon dioxide is the greenhouse gas primarily responsible for the rise, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and various other long-lived greenhouse gases also contribute. Carbon dioxide is of greatest concern because it exerts a larger overall warming influence than all of those other gases combined, and because it has a long atmospheric lifetime.

Not only do increasing carbon dioxide concentrations lead to increases in global surface temperature, but increasing global temperatures also cause increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide. This produces a positive feedback for changes induced by other processes such as orbital cycles.[52] Five hundred million years ago the carbon dioxide concentration was 20 times greater than today, decreasing to 4–5 times during the Jurassic period and then slowly declining with a particularly swift reduction occurring 49 million years ago.[53][54]

Local concentrations of carbon dioxide can reach high values near strong sources, especially those that are isolated by surrounding terrain. At the Bossoleto hot spring near Rapolano Terme in Tuscany, Italy, situated in a bowl-shaped depression about 100 m (330 ft) in diameter, concentrations of CO2 rise to above 75% overnight, sufficient to kill insects and small animals. After sunrise the gas is dispersed by convection during the day.[55] High concentrations of CO2 produced by disturbance of deep lake water saturated with CO2 are thought to have caused 37 fatalities at Lake Monoun, Cameroon in 1984 and 1700 casualties at Lake Nyos, Cameroon in 1986.[56]

On November 12, 2015, NASA scientists reported that human-made carbon dioxide (CO2) continues to increase above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years: currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels remains in the atmosphere and is not absorbed by vegetation and the oceans.

What you describe above adds up to the case. We currently have unusually high levels of CO2, CO and SO2 (plus methane) over the US West coast, all those emissions being potential precursors of volcanic activities... Things are sure getting interesting!

 

[Pierre]

I saw this and it a reminded me of the above discussion. Now i'm not that up on the subject to comment, but this was released by the UK Met office AND we are due for snow/wintry conditions, so they say, and Piers Corbyn predicted snow in February. It has gotten much colder in the last week or two.

Either way, this is what the mainstream are saying:

Could sudden stratospheric warming bring a cold start to spring?
29 02 2016
http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/02/29/could-sudden-stratospheric-warming-bring-a-cold-start-to-spring/
Our atmospheric scientists are predicting a dramatic change in high altitude winds 50km above the ground and the imminent occurrence of an event known as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in early March.

Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction explains: “Sudden stratospheric warming events occur high up in the atmosphere and involve a complete reversal of the high altitude polar jet stream – they can even affect weather at the surface, and for the UK a sudden stratospheric warming increases the risk of wintry weather.”

The phenomenon begins with a wave-like disturbance which travels up into the high-altitude jet stream. Scaife said: “This disturbance can grow to a point where it turns over and breaks, just like a wave on a beach.”

Normally the jet stream flows from west to east with some north and south oscillation, but the force from this high altitude disturbance pushes against the jet stream until the winds actually reverse and flow from east to west instead. Air then falls into the Arctic and is compressed so that it starts to warm: the temperature can rise by as much as 50C in just a few days.

Professor Scaife added: “This reversal of high altitude winds can also burrow down into the lower stratosphere. Once it is within reach of weather systems in the lower atmosphere the Atlantic jet stream often weakens and moves south. This allows cold air from the east into northern Europe and the UK.”

Sudden stratospheric warming events occur on average every couple of years and our long-range forecasts have consistently suggested an increased risk of sudden stratospheric warming towards the end of this winter. The last big event was in early 2013 and was followed by a cold end to winter. Although the impact of the current event is unlikely to be as severe, it increases the risk of cold north easterlies and wintry weather for the UK over the next few weeks.

Does this mean we’ll see snow at Easter?
You may have seen in the media that we will see snow at Easter. At this stage it is too early to provide details about what the weather will bring for Easter. Beyond a week ahead we can’t say what will happen on specific days, but we can give an idea of what type of weather we can expect.

As always we are working with our customers such as EasyJet and other major airlines, airports such as Heathrow and Gatwick, local councils, and energy providers, together with government partners in Highways England and Transport Scotland to ensure they are prepared for the current wintry conditions and whatever the weather may bring in the coming weeks.

The accompanying video explaining (2mins):

http://<iframe width="560" height="...a4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

This video really got me thinking. Apparently the trigger is a warming of the stratosphere but from what I can find the stratosphere tends to be cooling down instead:

I also don't understand how this stratospheric drop can trigger a reversal of the Jet stream

It seems to me they are trying to explain the polar vortex drops that the US has been repeatedly experiencing over the past winters. I thought it was simply due to the Jet stream that was weaker (meandering) and going South more (due to reduced Solar activity which electrically powers the Jet Stream). A weak Southern Jet stream, which separates the Polar air at North and the temperate air at the South logically enables Polar air to enter temperature Southern regions but I may miss something.

 

[Pierre]

Just for illustrate about the SSW previously mentionned :

We can see that the stratospheric vortex split in two entity. the major one is located above the UK. So we can expect that 'cold conditions' can arise within 2 weeks.

Hi Eol,

If you have it, can you point us to resources explaining clearly this SSW phenomenon. What causes it? How can it reverse the Jet Stream?

Can't the cold stratospheric pockets over the UK and Japan be simply due to a Jet stream moving southward and meandering enabling the Polar air to reach 'low' latitudes, creating a relative 'vacuum' at high latitudes which pulls down stratospheric air that cools down while loosing altitude (compression) and generates 'warm' pockets in the low stratosphere?

 

[Laura]

Regarding this exchange of air between layers of atmosphere, I noted a post in another thread as follows:

Thank you Laura and Chateau Crew for a great session with the Cs!

I have a few thoughts to share that I recalled from a recent movie which I watched.

Considering from the prior session,

Session 6 February 2016

Q: (L) So one thing is connected to another, which triggers something else, which... And it's just basically creating like this perfect storm of things on the Earth. Now, we read something that a guy posted on the forum a week or so ago about heating of the upper atmosphere, the stratosphere, and that there would be an inversion. Obviously, if there was an inversion with heating on the top, then that would make things very hot on the bottom. My understanding was that the way things happens is that there's a cooling of the upper atmosphere due to the comet dust and other things. It's compressing the troposphere which is heating because of the heat within the Earth, gases, volcanic eruptions, greenhouse effect from CFCs, and so on.

(Pierre) And reduced solar activity also reduces the temperature.

(L) So all these things work together. The thing that was interesting to me about it was that this inversion idea, a sudden and rapid inversion, seems to be something that could explain things like the flash-freezing of mammoths in Siberia 10K or so years ago or BC or whatever. Is that what we're looking forward to?

A: Indeed!

Q: (L) So that is kinda like the reason for sudden glacial rebound? A temperature inversion of layers of the atmosphere?

A: Yes

And these most recent remarks,

Session 27 February 2016

(Pierre) Well, I wanted to ask about this inversion that we talked about previously. My theory is that what caused the frozen mammoths and what may cause the sudden drop in temperature was some kind of Super Derecho: basically, the jet stream being deviated towards the surface of the Earth. Does it make any sense?

(L) What?

(Andromeda) You're asking if the sudden drop of temperature is because the jet stream drops towards the Earth?

(Pierre) Yeah.

(L) That it suddenly goes lower. It gets pushed down.

(Pierre) Well...

A: That is very close!

A doomsday disaster movie portrayed the freezing of the earth by letting in the freezing cold air from the stratosphere down to the Earth's surface. The film is called: Arctic Blast (2010) and stars Michael Shanks. The introduction states with on screen text:

"The coldest part of the earth is not at the north or south pole.
It is just 35 mils or 185,000 feet straight above us, where temperatures can fall to 140 degrees below zero.
A thin band of air called the ozone layer has been the only thing protecting the people of the earth.
Until now..."

The revealing line twenty-three minutes into the film from the hero, Michael Shanks:

"The solar eclipse seems to have had an unexpected impact on the mesosphere; it caused a sudden and violent further drop in temperatures, triggering an increase in air density. The ozone which usually provides a buffer between us and the mesosphere was too weak to handle it, due to damage from man-made pollutants. The atmospheric pressure created a rift in the ozone. Now, as you know, hot air rises and cold air drops. The mesospheric air that leaked through the ozone rift created a funnel straight down to the pacific ocean. Now we suspect that a very deadly cold front was born."

Besides the environmental take on the whole thing, it is curious how the idea of flash freezing is similar to what the C's allude to.

So, one wonders about the global warming which is, undoubtedly real, though not human caused nor permanent, as a possible factor in punching a hole upwards so that the super-coldness of space could flow down? I'm just wondering here.

And if super-ice tornadoes were created, not only would they bring down cold, they would bring down a vacuum so peeps would have the breath sucked right out of them.

 

[Eol]

Just for illustrate about the SSW previously mentionned :

We can see that the stratospheric vortex split in two entity. the major one is located above the UK. So we can expect that 'cold conditions' can arise within 2 weeks.

Hi Eol,

If you have it, can you point us to resources explaining clearly this SSW phenomenon. What causes it? How can it reverse the Jet Stream?

Can't the cold stratospheric pockets over the UK and Japan be simply due to a Jet stream moving southward and meandering enabling the Polar air to reach 'low' latitudes, creating a relative 'vacuum' at high latitudes which pulls down stratospheric air that cools down while loosing altitude (compression) and generates 'warm' pockets in the low stratosphere?

Hi Pierre.

You can view this link for a good summary about SSWs :

_http://www.climatecentral.org/news/stratospheric-phenomenon-is-bringing-frigid-cold-to-us-15479

And for more, this study in French :

_https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01056057/document

There is also a guy with an interesent theory about it :

_http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/04/sudden-stratospheric-warmings-causes-effects.html

But basically, the dynamic about SSWs remain poorly understood. We know that there are "planetary wawes (rossby waves/gravity waves among others)" wich reach the stratosphere and release their potential in the form of heat. SSWs are related since 50', exclusively in the NH pole in winter (Juste 1 'anomaly' has been observed in the SH pole) . It because the polar vortex forms only in winter time and because of the topography. In the SH pole we have a polar vortex crossing exclusively continental ice. In the NH pole, the polar vortex cross successively lands and seas who can disrupts the winds. Winds generate this kind of "planetary waves". Some times, the winds generated by the polar vortex can be very disrupted (great amplitude). This winds generate thus planetary waves of great amplitude wich have the potential to reach the stratosphere. They break and heat the layer. It disrupte the polar stratopheric vortex wich has an impact in the tropospheric vortex and the Jet Stream. But for me, it's ring weird.

SSW have become more frequent (see links above). And for me, only the weakening of the jet stream can explain that. As you know, it's also a "current of wind".

I quote my earlier message :

Major SSWs are also increasing this past years. The phenomena in itself remain poorly understood. I have read a lot about this and it seems that the jet stream, SSWs and the polar vortex are connected. But not in the way said by Professor Adam Scaife. It is rather a weakening in the jet stream who generate wave of geat amplitude (gravity or Rossby waves) in the troposhpere which can carried a great energy potential and can break in the stratosphere, heating the layer and perturbating the polar stratospheric vortex which has an impact on the tropospheric vortex.

And the weaking of the jet stream this past years can be explained mainly by the decrased in the sun activity/atmospheric conductivity (What Pierre explain in his book). (other variables can come into play)
Some scientists have also make a connection between the jet stream and the sun's activity by the magnetic field's line. More activity related to more energetic particules reaching the poles which strengthens the polar jets. The opposite occure whith less solar activity.

Can't the cold stratospheric pockets over the UK and Japan be simply due to a Jet stream moving southward and meandering enabling the Polar air to reach 'low' latitudes, creating a relative 'vacuum' at high latitudes which pulls down stratospheric air that cools down while loosing altitude (compression) and generates 'warm' pockets in the low stratosphere?

Yes i think you are right, the polar vortex and the jet stream are connected in this way. But maybe the SSWs could be the dynamic link beetwen both. (Notice that although major SSW occure approximately every two years, minor SSWs occure many times during winter time)

If you have it, can you point us to resources explaining clearly this SSW phenomenon. What causes it? How can it reverse the Jet Stream?

I think that the person who said that had difficulty in expressing the concept. When you look at the picture (c) above, we can see that when the jet stream is really weak, in the south downward phase phase, we have 'almost', even a reverse during a time, in the weasterlies wind.

"The coldest part of the earth is not at the north or south pole.
It is just 35 mils or 185,000 feet straight above us, where temperatures can fall to 140 degrees below zero.
A thin band of air called the ozone layer has been the only thing protecting the people of the earth.
Until now..."

Well, the coldest place of the eart is the mesopause, at approximately 50 miles above the surface (juste for info :P)

So, one wonders about the global warming which is, undoubtedly real, though not human caused nor permanent, as a possible factor in punching a hole upwards so that the super-coldness of space could flow down? I'm just wondering here.

And if super-ice tornadoes were created, not only would they bring down cold, they would bring down a vacuum so peeps would have the breath sucked right out of them.

Being a subject which interest me, I'm searching, reading intensly about this topic of upper cooling atmosphere since about 1 month (5-10h per day). I'm gathering many informations to expose them in the form of an article for my blog. (When i'm done with that, i will make a subject about it in the forum before the wrtting for collect your opinions)
I just can say quickly for now that for me, the colling of the upper atmopshere, her shrinkage and her contraction can not produce this kind of extreme flow down (Can participate, yes but not produce it) . Only an incredibly thunderstorms (who propel HUGE gravity waves in the upper atmopshere, capable of invert the temperature gradient) or a bolid explosion in the atmopshere, like you describe in The Secret History of the World Book 2 (I guess it's in this one) and his shock wave are capable to do such thing.

 

[angelburst29]

So, one wonders about the global warming which is, undoubtedly real, though not human caused nor permanent, as a possible factor in punching a hole upwards so that the super-coldness of space could flow down? I'm just wondering here.

And if super-ice tornadoes were created, not only would they bring down cold, they would bring down a vacuum so peeps would have the breath sucked right out of them.

The hypothesis of "a vacuum", from what little material I have searched, hasn't surfaced "as a possibility". Which, when giving it more thought, is like a quantum jump in paleoscience? I wonder, if something "to this effect" happened around the end of the Younger Dryas, to cause a mass die-off that emptied an entire continent of its megafauna virtually overnight, geologically speaking? (Three continents: South America and, to a lesser extent, Northern Eurasia.)


End of the Big Beasts
Who or what killed off North America's mammoths and other megafauna 13,000 years ago?
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/evolution/end-big-beasts.html

The four people I spoke to about the megafaunal or "large-animal" extinctions possess this sort of edgy sangfroid. While keeping an open mind, they also stand in four decidedly different camps regarding why America's rich complement of big beasts went extinct quite suddenly at the end of the Ice Age. The four camps are known tongue-in-cheek as "overkill," "overchill," "overill," and "overgrill"

Archeologist Gary Haynes, University of Nevada Reno, and others think that the continent's first human hunters, fresh from Siberia, killed the megafauna off as they colonized the newly discovered land.

• Donald Grayson, an archeologist at the University of Washington, Seattle, along with colleague David Meltzer of Southern Methodist University, believes that climate changes at the end of the Pleistocene epoch triggered the collapse.

• Mammalogist Ross MacPhee of the American Museum of Natural History has advanced the idea, with virologist Preston Marx, that a virulent "hyperdisease" brought by the first Americans might have raced through species with no natural immunity, bringing about their demise.

• And, in the newest hypothesis advanced, geologist James Kennett, U.C. Santa Barbara, and colleagues propose that a comet impact or airburst over North America did it.

So why is the answer so elusive? As often happens in the paleosciences, it largely comes down to lack of empirical evidence, something all four hypotheses arguably suffer from. (There's a fifth hypothesis, actually—that a combination of overkill and overchill did it.)

Overchill

Could climate change have done it? Scholars generally agree that North America witnessed some rapid climate adjustments as it shook off the Ice Age beginning about 17,000 years ago. The most significant swing was a cold snap between about 12,900 and 11,500 years ago. Known as the Younger Dryas, this partial return to ice-age conditions may have stressed the megafauna and their habitats sufficiently to cause widespread die-offs, Grayson and others believe.

Detractors, again, point to the lack of evidence. [...] Another question dissenters have is how the megafauna survived many abrupt glacial and deglacial shifts during the past two million years only to succumb to the one that closed the Pleistocene.

Overill

A lack of data has particularly plagued the "overill" hypothesis. [...] ... using DNA techniques and immunological probes, however, MacPhee and his colleagues have failed to detect clues to any pathogens in megafaunal bones, much less nail down a specific disease, like rabies or rinderpest, that could have jumped from one type of animal to another and wiped out all the big beasts. "There's no evidence.

Overgrill

The most recent hypothesis, [...] concerns the proposed cosmic impact. Right about the time the Younger Dryas began and at least 15 of those 35 extinct mammals and arguably the Clovis culture itself appear to vanish abruptly from the fossil record—that is, right about 12,900 years ago—Kennett et al see markers of a major catastrophe. The markers lie in a thin layer at the base of a "black mat" of soil that archeologists have identified at over 50 Clovis sites across North America.

According to Kennett, fieldworkers have uncovered fossils of the 15 genera of mammals that survived right up to Younger Dryas times just beneath—but neither within nor above—this black mat. (Some fossil bones butt up against this layer so closely that the mat has blackened them, Kennett told me.) Stone-tool remains of the Clovis culture also end just beneath the mat, he says. Moreover, Kennett and the team he works with have identified charcoal, soot, microscopic diamonds, and other trace materials at the base of the mat. These materials indicate, he says, that a comet (not an asteroid—different constituents) exploded in the atmosphere or struck the surface, likely in pieces. This triggered widespread wildfires and extinctions, changed ocean circulation, and coughed up sun-blocking ash and dust, all of which helped unleash the Younger Dryas. Tokens of this cosmic cataclysm have shown up in the Greenland ice sheet as well, Kennett says.

Where then, skeptics ask, is the crater? Unlike the asteroid strike at the end of the Cretaceous, the one thought to have ended the reign of the dinosaurs, this 12,900-year-old event currently has no hole or holes definitively linked to it. [...] He cites Tunguska: In 1908, an object that scholars believe was a meteor or comet exploded high above the Tunguska River in Siberia, leveling trees over 800 square miles but leaving no crater.

Finally, there are the extinctions themselves. Of the 35 extinct genera, 20 or so cannot be shown to have survived up to the Younger Dryas. The youngest date, for example, for fossils of Eremotherium, a giant ground sloth, is 28,000 years ago. "So the idea that this impact could have caused the extinctions of all these animals just does not make sense," Grayson says. In response, Kennett points out that the fossil record is imperfect, and one would not expect to see the most recent occurrence of rare forms like Eremotherium to extend right up to the Younger Dryas, as the remains of more common animals like mammoths, horses, and camels do.

If there's one thing all scholars involved in this famously contentious debate would welcome it's more data.

"Until we know when these extinctions occurred, I think we're wasting our time in trying to explain them," he says.

 

[Cosmos]

Emissions of sulfur dioxide is a documented precursor of volcanic eruptions (and we know how correlated volcanic eruptions and quakes are):

_https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_of_volcanic_activity

As magma nears the surface and its pressure decreases, gases escape. This process is much like what happens when you open a bottle of fizzy drink and carbon dioxide escapes. Sulphur dioxide is one of the main components of volcanic gases, and increasing amounts of it herald the arrival of increasing amounts of magma near the surface. For example, on May 13, 1991, an increasing amount of sulphur dioxide was released from Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines. On May 28, just two weeks later, sulphur dioxide emissions had increased to 5,000 tonnes, ten times the earlier amount. Mount Pinatubo later erupted on June 12, 1991. On several occasions, such as before the Mount Pinatubo eruption and the 1993 Galeras, Colombia eruption, sulphur dioxide emissions have dropped to low levels prior to eruptions. Most scientists believe that this drop in gas levels is caused by the sealing of gas passages by hardened magma. Such an event leads to increased pressure in the volcano's plumbing system and an increased chance of an explosive eruption.

Very interesting. So, considering the video, if there is indeed an explosion or earthquake in the making on the US west coast, it could be as early as within a month, and a sign of it being imminent could be a drop on the now increased gases.

It could happen quickly or later or not at all according to this excerpt from 'Volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis':

The high sulphur dioxide from Mount Etna in 1989 was a precursor that preceded the eruption by more two years, but some volcanoes pass through similar degassing crisis without the ensuing eruption

So, wait and see!

Well quite interesting indeed, but notice that what the guy has discovered there is the surface concentraion of Carbon Monoxide and not Sulfor Dioxide...

If I'm not mistaken, the video also deals with sulphur dioxide concentrations. Here is a screenshot below (video 2:07) where I circled in blue the monitored type of gas (SO2) and high concentration areas:

You are right he talked also about sulphur dioxide concentrations in the video, that went right past me...

Sorry.

 

[Cosmos]

Being a subject which interest me, I'm searching, reading intensly about this topic of upper cooling atmosphere since about 1 month (5-10h per day). I'm gathering many informations to expose them in the form of an article for my blog. (When i'm done with that, i will make a subject about it in the forum before the wrtting for collect your opinions)
I just can say quickly for now that for me, the colling of the upper atmopshere, her shrinkage and her contraction can not produce this kind of extreme flow down (Can participate, yes but not produce it) . Only an incredibly thunderstorms (who propel HUGE gravity waves in the upper atmopshere, capable of invert the temperature gradient) or a bolid explosion in the atmopshere, like you describe in The Secret History of the World Book 2 (I guess it's in this one) and his shock wave are capable to do such thing.

Looking forward to your analysis there. Sounds quite interesting...

 

[Eol]

Looking forward to your analysis there. Sounds quite interesting...

Give me a few more weeks :P. But don't wait for it too much. Most is just gathering basic stuff about many data and trends with speculation about the possible influence for the futur concerning the low solar activity.

To return quickly about this subject of inversion, my thinking about that it's because inversions take place in the stratosphere via SSWs and also in the mesosphere.

The observed mesospheric inversions have largely been interpreted in terms of the mechanisms involving gravity wave breaking, gravity wave-tidal interactions and chemical heating.

[Kumar et al., 2000]


And the thunderstorm connexion :

By analyzing radio soundings of the mesosphere (vertical temperature profile) and optical data from the EuroSprites campaign during 2003-2007, we have shown an association of sprites with the inversion in the mesospheric temperature profile, known as MIL. Gravity waves generated during convective thunderstorms propagate upwards into the mesosphere; they facilitate the production of MIL by depositing mechanical energy and momentum into this region from below. Gravity waves also modulate the neutral air density in the mesosphere. The intense electric fields caused by the charge imbalance in the stratiform regions of convective thunderstorm after a CG flash penetrates into the mesosphere and initiate the production of sprites. Modulation of the neutral air density and heating by gravity waves aid the initiation process of sprites and hence explain the association of sprites with MILs.

[Fadnavis et al.,2008]

Gravity waves are the same drivers for both. So if a brutal inversion like in the young Dryas can occur, for now, I just can see a big event (Great storm or a spatial bolide) capable to distrub in such way the atmosphere.

 

[Laura]

In other words, basically, a big shock to an seriously unstable atmospheric condition could do the trick?

 

[Eol]

In other words, basically, a big shock to an seriously unstable atmospheric condition could do the trick?

It remain speculation but yes, I think it's possible. A kind of big shock wich can propel the high atmosphere winds downard or create, like you said, a "vacuum" wich can allow the high winds to penetrate towards the surface. I wonder even if we need an unstable atmospheric condition when we speak about a possible majeur impact.