The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

c.a. said:
Yep, the data for this time a year (for a 50 footer), is dangerous at best. As the open seas takes no prisoners.
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The forecast isn't too bad and these people who sail the boat have experience, though not that many small boats cross this time of the year.
I looked at some web sites that informs about the weather at sea:
Wheather online
Ventusky What I like about this map is also that it shows very well where there is cold at the moment. The contrasts between warm and cold air can be dramatic.
On MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic there are quite a few ships in the Atlantic.
 
thorbiorn said:
The forecast isn't too bad and these people who sail the boat have experience
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Things are about to change in the coming days.

www.meteolanguedoc.com

Dégradation pluvio-orageuse la semaine prochaine : le point ce dimanche

La goutte froide persiste sur la France en ayant tendance à se résorber progressivement. L'air frais persiste dans un contexte assez mou. Cela explique les gelées matinales que nous connaissons dans les secteurs déventés....
www.meteolanguedoc.com www.meteolanguedoc.com
Storm-storm deterioration next week: the point this Sunday

The cold drop persists in France, tending to gradually diminish. The fresh air persists in a rather soft context. This explains the morning frosts that we know in the déventés sectors. The degradation is reduced as expected this morning and tomorrow on the Roussillon with low rainfall. The change of weather is confirmed for the next week with a risk of degradation quite intense. Explanations.

As the depression fades slowly, a vast low-pressure system will slide from the Atlantic to France (see animation below). The transition will be short-lived before the introduction of a flow of South a little softer but especially more humid.

02dfb805ba0abcf9f502517088dcbb3c.png

Wednesday will be the transition day. After a still cool morning, the maritime entries will multiply to cover a part of the region. The first rains are expected in the evening and in the night from Wednesday to Thursday.

At the moment, we favor the Languedoc and especially the Cevennes which will be in line of sight of these rains. As explained yesterday, it seems that we were heading for a Cevennes episode.

The situation could remain blocked for several days. Indeed, the episode that should begin between Wednesday and Thursday may persist until Saturday. Thursday and especially Friday will be the most watered days with many rainfall especially between Herault, Gard and the Cevennes. In view of a strong sea wind, the rains may be more heterogeneous on the plains to go hang on the reliefs where they will be abundant.


The models begin to agree (despite normal divergences at this time) on a lasting Cevennes episode between Thursday and Saturday. The Roussillon could also have rain but without consequences. Uncertainties still lie in the precise timing but also in the ability of thunderstorms to develop. Indeed, the instability will not, a priori, be very high. The risk of violent storms is not considered. However, the convective character of the rains will have an important role on the rainfall intensities.

The most plausible scenario reports moderate to punctually strong rainfall over the Cevennes reliefs. On the plains, rainy passages are expected but they can be interspersed with lulls. The first accumulations are 200 to 300 mm on the Cevennes spread over several days, 50 to 100 mm in the interior plains of the Hérault and Gard, rather 30 to 70 mm in approaching the littorals.

This first forecast will certainly be refined regularly in view of the uncertainties mentioned above.

Meanwhile:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1196382289812492288
 
Anyone crossing the Atlantic within such a nutshell, especially at this time of the year, is simply foolish and asking for trouble. The great ocean is certainly not something to take lightly in any shape, form or fashion. I think there is a lot to the notion, that if you don't approach natural phenomena like the oceans with the due respect and caution they deserve, you ask for big trouble. Heck, I've already a lot of respect and awe when confronted with relatively small waves at the beach. The ocean is breathtakingly awesome but at the same time breathtakingly dangerous and formidable. Greta and company don't strike me as the most aware and caring people in that respect.
 
Well I say, (IMHO), it's all about the darkness of the lie, that chase the perpetrators!
The reaction from the Universe seems to manifest accordingly and wounder if the approach of the Wave accents it some.
 
Scientists Are Predicting Polar Vortex To Bring Big Freeze And Coldest Winter For Five Years : ( ”People Should Be Prepared For a Real Flagstaff Winter” )

The polar vortex is headed toward the US, expected to bring record-breaking cold to the Northeast, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes by this week. It’s so cold that it could give people frostbite in just 5 minutes.

Each year, a pocket of frigid air — the polar vortex — forms over the Arctic, and it usually stays north of the US. But some of it has broken off and is traveling south where it will hit the hardest in Minnesota, Iowa, and Michigan, causing temperatures to plummet by as much as 40 degrees Fahrenheit below normal.

The National Weather Service tweeted that windchill will be the coldest since the mid-1990s for some regions.

Some regions are already starting to see record-breaking cold. International Falls, Minnesota hit -46 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday, its fifth-lowest temperature on record. And the weather service in Des Moines, Iowa stated: “This is the coldest air many of us will have ever experienced.”

The worst of the storm is expected to hit from Tuesday through Thursday and is forecast to dwindle by Friday. So bundle up because “brutal cold is coming.”
[...]
Health officials have issued a desperate plea to the public, urging them to wrap up warm and turn to pharmacies at the first sign of illness, amid “enormous pressure” on casualty departments. Forecasts suggest could be facing the coldest winter for five years, with average minimum temperatures.

Research has also shown that people with conditions such as heart disease, lung problems including asthma, and dementia are much more likely to die in winter.

Scientists Are Predicting Polar Vortex To Bring Big Freeze And Coldest Winter For Five Years : ( ”People Should Be Prepared For a Real Flagstaff Winter” ) – Investment Watch

www.investmentwatchblog.com
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Central Ohio local forecast temps range from highest, Thurs. Nov. 21 > 55/43 to lowest, Mon. Dec. 2 > 37/27
Daytime temps in the low to upper 40s on 11 of the next 15 days with 2 days in 50s. Gets into 30s starting on 12/2.
 
c.a. said:
Things are about to change in the coming days. [...] The cold drop persists in France, tending to gradually diminish.
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The Netherlands experienced its coldest Oct 6th this year since measurements began (9.6 degrees Celsius as opposed to 10.1 from 1961), and it's getting colder.

JEEP said:
The polar vortex is headed toward the US, expected to bring record-breaking cold to the Northeast, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes by this week. It’s so cold that it could give people frostbite in just 5 minutes.
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Ouch! I hope people keep warm/wear layers!
 
When text becomes reality, it's a good day.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
4:25 AM · Nov 22, 2019
During the late 1700s, the ground froze to a depth of 2 feet according to John Adams. When John Adams set out to travel to Philadelphia, it was bitterly cold and there was a foot or more of snow that covered the landscape that had blanketed Massachusetts from one end of the province to the other. Beneath the snow, after weeks of severe cold, the ground was frozen solid to a depth of two feet. Packed ice in the road made the journey very hazardous.
John-Adams-letter-119a.png
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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1197678854698979328



https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1197731670532775937

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1197639491076247553
 
We saw a warming spike here in the Fifty's *F with osculating pockets of cooler temps throughout the day yesterday. With a good thunderclap with warm rain last night, (during a slight appearance of the Indian summer).
All being related to the broken Jet Stream, obviously related to the Sun.

wattsupwiththat.com

Vice Climate Alert: “The Collapse of Civilization May Have Already Begun” • Watts Up With That?

Guest essay by Eric Worrall As the photo above shows, it may already be too late to save our civilization from the horror of global warming induced hot weather and a rising sea level. The Collapse of Civilization May Have Already BegunScientists disagree on the timeline of collapse and whether...
wattsupwiththat.com wattsupwiththat.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1198109622063648768

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1197979166110470144

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1198124098099892229

Oppenheimer Ranch Project

Snow Falls Silently & Warmists Deny Science - Super Flares And Cosmic G... https://youtu.be/SIkE16-DwYs via @YouTube
Nov 22, 2019
 
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Laura said:
Assuming she even makes it across the Atlantic. This is not a good time of year to sail that route, and the weather is already nuts out there.
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Pashalis said:
Anyone crossing the Atlantic within such a nutshell, especially at this time of the year, is simply foolish and asking for trouble. The great ocean is certainly not something to take lightly in any shape, form or fashion. I think there is a lot to the notion, that if you don't approach natural phenomena like the oceans with the due respect and caution they deserve, you ask for big trouble. Heck, I've already a lot of respect and awe when confronted with relatively small waves at the beach. The ocean is breathtakingly awesome but at the same time breathtakingly dangerous and formidable. Greta and company don't strike me as the most aware and caring people in that respect.
Click to expand...
I decided to follow the boat across to see what would happen. Now that they are pretty close to Portugal it is time to write. Leaving Greta and the climate politics aside, I found the boat crew made skillful use of various pressure systems and dodged a storm passing in front of them while capitalizing on the good winds following it. Sailing today is very different from sailing before advanced weather forecasting and satellite updates were available. Sure, they have seen quite strong winds like 30 knots average, especially in the beginning, and average wave heights up to about 4 meters, but generally both have been lower. The boat they have looks like a catamaran type which should give more stability considering:
The Wiki has:
Catamarans typically have less hull volume, smaller displacement, and shallower draft (draught) than monohulls of comparable length. The two hulls combined also often have a smaller hydrodynamic resistance than comparable monohulls, requiring less propulsive power from either sails or motors. The catamaran's wider stance on the water can reduce both heeling and wave-induced motion, as compared with a monohull, and can give reduced wakes.
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From Sailing La Vagabonde | A Few Words Behind The Movies this is the present position:
1575208866832.png
As a side note, at the max of my interest in sailing, I noticed different advertisements coming in. I realized I had joined the armchair sailors, which before I didn't even know existed, that I possibly was the owner of a nice boat and possibly would be interested in applying for a job as a political analyst for the government. Not bad at all, and I learned so much about sailing that I wondered if there was a thread on the forum about this topic, but didn't find anything yet. I'm not yet convinced it is a subject worth the time, but I ought to say that while I have much respect for the sea, and while I actually have lived close to salty water for many years of my life, and consciously have avoided small boats and sailing, I now know, the risks should be approached like all others.
 
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