Pierre said:
I think this US operation in Syria might be a concerted bluff by Putin and Trump. Several data suggest so:
- the weak attack conducted by the US: 59 Tomahawks that are precision missiles of a limited size (about 3000 pounds)
- the target (Shayrat Syrian Air Force base) which is not an highly strategic Syrian target
- the number of casualties (6 according to the MSM) which suggests a limited strike and possible forewarning (see the witness testimony above reporting prior evacuation of the base, and the fact that the US signaled Russia about the coming strike )
- the weak Russian retaliation: Russia only reaction so far is to cancel the airspace coordination agreement. Also, Russia has its own military area in this base, as a consequence the base is probably defended by S-X00 systems which Russia did not use to neutralize the incoming subsonic Tomahawks.
It's too early to draw conclusions. If the military activities escalate, Trump might have indeed caved in, if it stops here, it might be indeed a clever bluff. All the more clever that until now, the US conducted bombing of civilian facilities, without being provoked and without presidential orders. In this sense, Trump might have attempted to set a precedent where US operations are now retaliatory, ordered by the President and targeting military assets.
That would also suggest a behind-the-scene coordination between Putin and Trump which would be quite an encouraging thing.
If this US operation marks the beginning of WWIII you can consider the above as the worst analysis ever :O
I'm thinking Pierre, you might not be far from the mark? I'm beginning to sense - there is some type of understanding and coordination between Putin, Assad and Trump, although I'm unsure "where this missile attack fits in?"
Take for instance, this odd report back in Feb. between Tillerson and Lavrov -
shortly after National Security Advisor Michael Flynn resigned on February 13 after The Washington Post printed an alleged US intelligence insider’s leak of a phone conversation he had before taking office with a Russian ambassador. Such a leak is a federal felony.
Awkward: Tillerson and Lavrov First Meeting Makes Journalists Cringe (Video)
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201702161050766466-tillerson-lavrov-meeting-awkward-moment/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUYT0TNHpho (1:50 min.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbRmOjl6RE0 (RT Video 3:48 min.)
Thurs. 16.02.2017 For the first time since his February 1 confirmation, Tillerson met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. As would be typical for a meeting between diplomats, they shook hands and exchanged pleasantries.
For the first time since his February 1 confirmation, Tillerson met with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. As would be typical for a meeting between diplomats, they shook hands and exchanged pleasantries.
Ordinarily, the two would deliver opening remarks, take one or two impromptu questions, and then adjourn to speak in private. Lavrov greeted Tillerson by congratulating him on his appointment. A journalist then asked Lavrov about Russia's stance on the resignation of US President Donald Trump's national security adviser, Michael Flynn. "You should know we do not interfere in the domestic matters of other countries," Lavrov replied.
But when Tillerson began to speak, instead of returning the introduction or taking questions on his own, his staffers rushed the journalists out of the room. Lavrov was visibly surprised by this. "Why did you shush them out?" the Russian top diplomat asked.
After the private meeting concluded, Tillerson appeared before the media and read a statement. "Foreign Minister Lavrov and I had a productive meeting," he said. "We discussed a range of issues of mutual concern."
Now compare that Feb. meeting to this announcement:
"Open and fully ready to cooperate": Lavrov and Tillerson to focus on counter-terrorism
http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/04/open-and-fully-ready-to-cooperate.html
“Against the backdrop of events in many regions around the world and, of course, given the tragedy in Saint Petersburg, we are open and fully ready - in any format of any intensity and at any depth - to cooperate with the US on this most important and probably key issue for world security, if the other side is ready for this,” Ryabkov emphasized.
Tillerson will visit Moscow on a working visit on April 11th-12th. This will be his first visit to Russia as the head of the Donald Trump Administration’s foreign policy department.
This was reported a day after the Tillerson-Lavrov Feb. meeting in Russia:
]Russian Intelligence Ship Approaches Largest US Naval Base in Virginia - Reports
https://sputniknews.com/us/201702171050795015-russia-ship-virginia/
Friday 17.02.2017 - The SSV-175 Viktor Leonov remains in international waters and was detected 19 miles away from Norfolk, which houses the largest US naval base, Fox News reported.
The vessel, which can intercept signals and measure US sonar capability, was "loitering" in the water, according to media reports.
On Thursday, Viktor Leonov was spotted some 30 miles south of Groton Navy submarine base in the US state of Connecticut. The ship was first detected near the east coast on Tuesday, when it approached Delaware.
Pentagon Tracking Activities of Russian Ship Off East Coast, Finds No Violations (Friday 17.02.2017)
https://sputniknews.com/us/201702171050799916-russia-ship-east-coast/
Purge: Trump Prepares Major Overhaul of Intelligence Apparatus (Friday 17.02.2017)
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201702161050766635-trump-intelligence-overhaul/
On Thursday, Trump vowed to punish those leaking classified information to the press, including the details about phone calls between former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and the Russian ambassador.
Big Cleanup at State: Tillerson Firing Staffers in Troves (Sat. 18.02.2017)
https://sputniknews.com/us/201702181050806803-tillerson-mass-firing-state-department/
While Tillerson was away on his first overseas trip as Secretary of State attending the G20 in Bonn, Germany, his aides alerted much of the staff working for the Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources and the Counselor offices that their services were no longer needed.
Also want to include this odd report that occurred on Sat. 18.02.2017. Was this "Embassy" being used by the CIA for spying purposes?
Virginia mansion owned by United Arab Emirates Embassy mysteriously goes up in flames (Video)
http://www.thomasdishaw.com/us-news/virginia-mansion-owned-united-arab-emirates-embassy-mysteriously-goes-flames/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jATIQdco-Gw (1:52 min.)
On Saturday, February 18th a mysterious fire destroyed a Virginia mansion that was owned by the Embassy of The United Arab Emirates.
The estate was only one mile away from CIA headquarters.
Following Monday ....
Vitali Churkin, Russian ambassador to the UN suddenly dies in NY (Mon. Feb. 20.2017)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-20/russian-ambassador-un-vitaly-churkin-suddenly-dies-work-new-york
US Congressman John McCain illegally enters Syria to meet with Kurds (Feb. 23, 2017)
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-congressman-john-mccain-illegally-enters-syria-meet-kurds/
Top US Commander (General Joseph Votel) for Middle East in Secret Syria Trip (Feb. 26, 2017)
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13951207000677
In Video: Israeli military infiltrates into Syria’s territories (Feb. 27, 2017)
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/video-israeli-military-infiltrates-syrias-territories/
The unit, called “Eagle” which is part of the Israeli elite intelligence force, infiltrated for some 500 into the southern Syrian territories on a mission for gathering intelligence info. The exact location where the infiltration took place hasn’t been released for security considerations.
Video: Four Syrian Army soldiers captured by Turkish-led forces in rural Aleppo (March 4, 2017)
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/video-four-syrian-army-soldiers-captured-turkish-led-forces-rural-aleppo/
Reports suggest that along with the four who were captured, one other soldier was killed by the Turkish-led forces.
Turkish-backed rebels capture two more Syrian soldiers near Al-Bab
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-backed-rebels-capture-two-syrian-army-soldiers-near-al-bab/
The two unnamed Syrian soldiers, members of the Syrian Air Force Intelligence, were taken into captivity after clashes in a contested area east of Al-Bab by a predominately Turkmen brigade of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
Engine failure forces Syrian pilot to crash on Turkish territory (March 5, 2017)
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-engine-failure-forces-syrian-pilot-crash-turkish-territory/
Syrian Army Lost Contact With Jet Flying Reconnaissance Mission Near Turkey
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703041051272944-syrian-army-lost-contact-spy-jet/
Turkish Rescuers Find Wounded Pilot of Jet Crashed Near Syrian Border - Reports
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703051051276638-turkish-rescuers-pilot-syrian-jet/
Turkey to Decide Fate of Captured Pilot of Crashed Syrian Jet Soon – Deputy PM
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703051051283612-turkey-crashed-syrian-jet/
Pilot of Syrian Jet That Crashed in Turkey Says Plane Was Shot Down
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703051051286924-syria-warplane-turkey-pilot/
Update - April 7, 2017 - Turkish Prosecution Orders Arrest of Pilot of Crashed Syrian MiG-21 Fighter Jet
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201704071052400149-turkey-arrest-pilot-mig21/
The Prosecutor's Office of the Turkish Hatay province authorized the arrest of the pilot of the Syrian MiG-21 fighter jet, which crashed near the Turkish border with Syria in March, local media reported Friday. The pilot, Mehmet Sufhan, is charged with violation of the country's state border and espionage, the Star newspaper reported. He was sent to prison from the hospital where he had been under treatment after the crash.
Syria’s Water Cut Off By Turkey Following McCain, Erdogan Meeting (March 5, 2017)
http://www.mintpressnews.com/syrias-water-cut-off-by-turkey-following-mccain-erdogan-meeting/225483/
According to the Kurdish Hawar News Agency, Turkey cut water supplies to Syria around Feb. 23, which subsequently forced a hydroelectric plant at the Tishrin Dam to shut down while also significantly reducing water levels on its associated reservoir.
The dam supplies both water and power to key parts of northern Syria, such as the city of Manbij and other parts of the predominantly Kurdish Kobani Canton.
Syrian War Report: US-Backed Forces Surrender Wide Areas Near Manbij to Syrian Army (March 5, 2017)
http://www.globalresearch.ca/syrian-war-report-us-backed-forces-surrender-wide-areas-near-manbij-to-syrian-army/5577871
The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) primarily consisting of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) will hand over wide areas west of the northern Syrian town of Manbij to the Syrian army, according to a statement released by the so-called Manbij Miltiary Council. The SDF wants to use Syrian army troops as a buffer against Turkish-backed militant groups in northern Syria and refers that this decision is made after talks with “Russia”, aiming to use the Russian and Syrian military and diplomatic capabilities to defend itself from Turkey.
Kurds Shed Light on Russia-Damascus Deal to Prevent Turkey's Attack on Manbij (March 6, 2017)
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703061051312686-manbij-syria-russia-deal/
Control over six villages to the west of the Syrian city of Manbij has been turned over to the Syrian Army, sources in the Manbij Military Council (MMC) said.
Six villages were placed under control of the Syrian Army and that the United States delivered a large shipment of weapons to northern Manbij.
Syrian Army Creates Buffer Zone Between Kurds and Turkish Military
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703041051265010-syria-army-kurds-manbij/
The Manbij Military Council has agreed to hand over areas to the west of the strategically important city in the Aleppo province to the Syrian Arab Army as part of a Russia-sponsored deal that will help to create a buffer zone between the Turkish military and the Kurds and allow the Syrian Democratic Forces to focus on the Raqqa offensive.
CENTCOM Commander Sheds Light on What US Marines Are Doing in Syria (March 9.2017)
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703291052094915-us-marines-syria-centcom/
On March 9, the US-led coalition confirmed that a US Marine Corps artillery unit had deployed to Syria. Four hundred troops were expected to arrive. Hitherto, the US military contingent in Syria has been comprised of about 500 people.
Turkey Plans to Construct New Town in Syria's Al-Bab (March 10, 2017) (Plan mimics Israeli settlements?)
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13951218001398
The Arabic-language Enab al-Baladi news website quoted Othman Sultan, an engineer working for the project, as saying that Nadhah region North of al-Bab has been selected as the ultimate site for building this new town. He added that the town will have two districts; one with 400 buildings stretching over a 2km area, and another one that will be comprised of 311 four-story buildings. According to Sultan, the first district will include four schools and the second one will have three. Also a grand mosque, two prayers rooms and a hospital will be built in every district. This is while, Hamza Tekin, a journalist with close links to the Turkish government, confirmed Sultan's remarks, and said construction of the town will take 6 months.
Damascus Calls on UN to Make Turkey Stop Aggression and Withdraw Army From Syria (March 10, 2017)
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201703101051450433-syria-turkey-un/
Iran Installs Intel Devices in Syria to Track Terrorists Movements – Minister (March 14, 2017)
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703141051570401-iran-syria-intelligence-terrorism/
Turkey Announces Successful End of 'Euphrates Shield' Operation in Syria (29.03.2017)
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201703291052095688-turkey-euphrates-shield-syria/
Turkish Forces to Remain in Northern Syria despite Completion of Euphrates Shield Operation (01.04.2017)
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13960112000102
Tillerson to Meet Erdogan During Visit to Turkey This Week - US State Department (30.03.2017)
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201703271052018945-tillerson-to-meet-erdogan/
The official stated that
Tillerson will be visiting Ankara this week during his second trip to Europe as Secretary of State. “He’ll be meeting with President Erdogan and other senior officials,” He said. Secretary Tillerson will discuss the situation in Raqqa and the fight against Daesh (outlawed in Russia) with Turkish officials.
Tillerson is scheduled to arrive in Turkey on March 30.
Washington Makes 'Very Significant' Decision to Abandon Regime Change in Syria (31.03.2017)
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201703311052164891-washington-regime-change-syria/
Mere Coincidence? Trump Strikes Syrian Arab Army While Xi Jinping Visits US (April 7, 2017)
https://sputniknews.com/world/201704071052422724-china-us-syria-trump-instability/
The US missile attack on an airfield in Syria during the Sino-US summit in Florida was an allegedly pre-planned action. It gives signal to China that the US is ready to play the role of a global policeman, be more active on the Korean Peninsula and in the South China Sea region. That is according to Russian experts who interviewed with Sputnik.
Baghdad to Oppose Any Turkey's Combat Operations on Iraqi Territory - Government
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201704071052415300-turkey-iraq-daesh/
Baghdad is against any military operations by Turkey on Iraqi territory and hopes Ankara will withdraw troops from the camp in northern Iraqi town of Bashiqa after the victory over the Daesh terrorist group, Iraqi government spokesman Saad Hadithi told Sputnik Friday.
Turkish Foreign Ministry Welcomes US Strike on Syrian Airbase
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201704071052400412-turkey-us-strike-syria/
Turkey welcomes the airstrike of the United States on the Syrian military base in Ash Sha’irat in the Homs province and will support any future operations aimed at ensuring Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government's accountability, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Friday.
Comment - IF there is some type of (hidden) corporation between Putin-Assad-Trump .... would this airstrike have something to do with trying to force Turkey (and Israel) off Syrian land and maybe, also out of Iraq? And could this have something to do with keeping Erdogan from taking over Manbij?