Air France Flight 447 Disappears?

[Fifth Way]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

The German newspaper DER TAGESSPIEGEL just reported today, quoting the Brazilian newspaper O ESTADO DE SAO PAULO that the first examination of the dead suggests that the Airbus A330 broke apart without an explosion. The autopsy of the 16 corpses showed that the passengers suffered no burn injuries but multiple broken bones instead.

http://www.tagesspiegel.de/weltspiegel/Italien;art1117,2822548

This would be in sync with the hypothesis of a cometary explosion in the lower stratospheres and the resulting shock wave braking the plane to pieces in mid air and within split seconds.

 

[rs]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

The German newspaper DER TAGESSPIEGEL just reported today, quoting the Brazilian newspaper O ESTADO DE SAO PAULO that the first examination of the dead suggests that the Airbus A330 broke apart without an explosion. The autopsy of the 16 corpses showed that the passengers suffered no burn injuries but multiple broken bones instead.

http://www.tagesspiegel.de/weltspiegel/Italien;art1117,2822548

This would be in sync with the hypothesis of a cometary explosion in the lower stratospheres and the resulting shock wave braking the plane to pieces in mid air and within split seconds.

Any explanation must take into account the published facts that there were a series of automated messages transmitted over minutes. You appear to be proposing that the explosion's shock wave instantly broke apart. Unless you also wish to dispute the facts behind the automated messages, this is not consistent.

According to the automated message stream, the failure of the aircraft took "several minutes". The final messages about loss of cabin pressure, flight control and electrical systems are consistent with a total airframe failure where the aircraft is breaking up. However the explanation must accommodate those few minutes where the situation was "slowly" escalating.

Perhaps Vulcan59 can comment about what would happen to an Airbus 330 if the resulting pressure wave snapped off the rudder (which was found intact) and how long the plane would be partially "stable". I can imagine that the loss of the rudder, especially during turbulence, would result in an extremely rapid loss of control over aircraft attitude.

The loss of cabin pressure was one of the last things to happen, so whatever early damage the airframe sustained, did not introduce cracks or other damage into the main body of the aircraft.

osit

Vulcan59: based on your obvious experience can you propose what portions of the aircraft could be lost without losing cabin pressure?

 

[Laura]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

Any explanation must take into account the published facts that there were a series of automated messages transmitted over minutes. You appear to be proposing that the explosion's shock wave instantly broke apart. Unless you also wish to dispute the facts behind the automated messages, this is not consistent.

Actually, it IS consistent since it is known that the entry of such bodies into the atmosphere produces electronic effects in advance of the body itself - it begins to affect things electrically even before it's bodily arrival. There are also electrophonic effects.

People have claimed that they have heard an incoming fireball and in fact heard it and turned around to see it. There is the contradiction: the flash of light from the fireball is travelling much faster than any related sound.

Traditional wisdom holds that we cannot actually hear fireballs coming in, we may hear the rumble and explosion only some time later, usually after we have seen them. Keay has accumulated information showing that some people genuinely do hear fireballs as they come in and before they see them: how? The plasma trail from a large fireball may generate Extra Low or Very Low Frequency radio emissions; if an observer happens to be standing beside a suitable object (or perhaps if he is wearing a suitable object like glasses or headgear, that object can act as a transducer for the electromagnetic signal - thus the observer actually 'hears' the incoming fireball as it enters the atmosphere, before seeing it.

The technical name for this phenomenon is 'geophysical electrophonics.' {Baillie, Exodus to Arthur, Batsford; London, 1999}

 

[Laura]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

More hints:

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/232/4748/377

Plasma Wave Observations at Comet Giacobini-Zinner
FREDERICK L. SCARF 1, FERDINAND V. CORONITI 1, CHARLES F. KENNEL 1, DONALD A. GURNETT 2, WING-HUEN IP 3, and EDWARD J. SMITH 4

1 TRW Space and Technology Group, Redondo Beach, CA 90278.
2 Gurnett, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242.
3 Max-Planck-institut für Aeronomic, Lindau, West Germany.
4 Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA 91109.

The plasma wave instrument on the International Cometary Explorer (ICE) detected bursts of strong ion acoustic waves almost continuously when the spacecraft was within 2 million kilometers of the nucleus of comet Giacobini-Zinner. Electromagnetic whistlers and low-level electron plasma oscillations were also observed in this vast region that appears to be associated with heavy ion pickup. As ICE came closer to the anticipated location of the bow shock, the electromagnetic and electrostatic wave levels increased significantly, but even in the midst of this turbulence the wave instrument detected structures with familiar bow shock characteristics that were well correlated with observations of localized electron heating phenomena. Just beyond the visible coma, broadband waves with amplitudes as high as any ever detected by the ICE plasma wave instrument were recorded. These waves may account for the significant electron heating observed in this region by the ICE plasma probe, and these observations of strong wave-particle interactions may provide answers to longstanding questions concerning ionization processes in the vicinity of the coma. Near closest approach, the plasma wave instrument detected broadband electrostatic noise and a changing pattern of weak electron plasma oscillations that yielded a density profile for the outer layers of the cold plasma tail. Near the tail axis the plasma wave instrument also detected a nonuniform flux of dust impacts, and a preliminary profile of the Giacobini-Zinner dust distribution for micrometer-sized particles is presented.
Submitted on September 20, 1985
Accepted on March 1, 1986

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997GeoRL..24.3129T

A new look at the nature of comet Halley's LF electromagnetic waves: Giotto observations
Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Lakhina, Gurbax S.; Neubauer, Fritz M.; Glassmeier, Karl-Heinz
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 24, Issue 24, p. 3129-3132

All of the comet Halley high-time resolution magnetic field data have been examined to determine the nature of the ``turbulence'' and its difference from that of comets Giacobini-Zinner and Grigg-Skjellerup. Although much of the wave appears unpolarized, occasionally there are intervals of clear order. We find several interesting new wave polarizations: arc-, left-hand/arc-(sunglass) and left-hand circular polarized waves (in the spacecraft frame). The former two types have separations of ~120s between individual pulses, indicating that the waves are generated from pickup of the H2O group cometary ions. The third type of waves occurs in a wave-train and may be a detached whistler packet. The unusual polarizations could be caused by wave refraction in the highly turbulent (and high β) Halley environment or by nonlinear evolution due to strong growth rates. It is noted that some of the large amplitude waves are non-planar. These results are further details of the ``linear polarization'' of Halley waves determined by previous coherency analyses, and may explain some of the evolution leading to its plasma turbulence.

Keywords: Interplanetary Physics: Plasma waves and turbulence, Interplanetary Physics: Discontinuities, Planetology: Comets and Small Bodies: Plasma and MHD instabilities, Space Plasma Physics: Turbulence
DOI: 10.1029/97GL03222

There are a couple sites on the net that discuss the plasma theory of the solar system.

 

[christx11]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

Any explanation must take into account the published facts that there were a series of automated messages transmitted over minutes. You appear to be proposing that the explosion's shock wave instantly broke apart. Unless you also wish to dispute the facts behind the automated messages, this is not consistent.

Actually, it IS consistent since it is known that the entry of such bodies into the atmosphere produces electronic effects in advance of the body itself - it begins to affect things electrically even before it's bodily arrival. There are also electrophonic effects.
{TRIMMED}

I would agree that it is very much consistent with an atmospheric explosion.

If you consider that such an event has an electromagnetic pulse, almost immediate effects, a sound shock wave propagating at about one mile every 6 seconds, then stronger shock waves traveling slower, you pretty much end up with precisely this scenario that is being reported. If the blast occurred say 15-20 miles from the plane, the electronic failure would be near immediate from the electromagnetic pulse. It would take 90 - 120 seconds for the sound shock wave to hit, followed by the even stronger atmospheric shock waves finally tearing the plane apart. The plane would have been intact for 90 - 120 seconds in such a scenario before it was ripped apart. And it probably would result in the types of injuries being reported, no explosion, burns, etc., just torn apart in the atmosphere resulting in mostly impact type injuries from the concussive forces.

 

[Joe]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

Ah thanks Redfox for that tip. I was using the flightstats website to search and also the airlines homepage.

Actually I was referring to a Lufthansa flight which was apparently ahead of Air France at 37,000ft. However if you look for schedule departures out of Rio by Lufthansa, there was none for 31st May!! There was one for 30th May but none for 31st May.

Lufthansa could have flown out of Sao Paolo, which would have taken the plane on a similar route as planes out of Rio

 

[Vulcan59]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

Ah thanks Redfox for that tip. I was using the flightstats website to search and also the airlines homepage.

Actually I was referring to a Lufthansa flight which was apparently ahead of Air France at 37,000ft. However if you look for schedule departures out of Rio by Lufthansa, there was none for 31st May!! There was one for 30th May but none for 31st May.

Lufthansa could have flown out of Sao Paolo, which would have taken the plane on a similar route as planes out of Rio

Yes that's what I thought but I can't find that Lufthansa because if it was at 37,000ft just a few minutes ahead of AF 447, I would think that it would also have been affected. So where was that particular Lufthansa or was it really there? Or perhaps the blast only affected Air France and not the other aircraft in the vicinity.

Vulcan59: based on your obvious experience can you propose what portions of the aircraft could be lost without losing cabin pressure?

The only Airbus that I flew was an A310 which was not a fly by wire and that was a long time ago and so I really don't know the A330 at all. I do know the Boeing B777 which is a fly by wire although the control laws used by Boeing and Airbus are quite different.

So assume that the blast took out the whole rudder section. The aircraft would still be flyable initially but soon the onboard computers would have no feedback from the rudder section. The flight controls system would eventually go to what is referred to as a "direct mode". Direct mode on the Airbus from what I've read seems to be a mode that allows the pilot to keep the aircraft straight and level while the pilots attempt to reset the flight control computers. So direct mode is the worst case scenario.

Off course that would also trigger a whole series of fault messages starting with autopilot disengaging which would cause one pilot to attempt to keep control of the aircraft while the other pilot attempts to do the checklist to rectify the situation. The third pilot would at this stage of the flight normally be at rest and so not in the cockpit.

The damaged rudder section would soon lead to structural failure at which point the aircraft would start to lose cabin pressure which shows up as a climbing cabin altitude which is what the ACARS fault messages showed. All of that happened within minutes.

 

[Beau]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

So assume that the blast took out the whole rudder section. The aircraft would still be flyable initially but soon the onboard computers would have no feedback from the rudder section. The flight controls system would eventually go to what is referred to as a "direct mode". Direct mode on the Airbus from what I've read seems to be a mode that allows the pilot to keep the aircraft straight and level while the pilots attempt to reset the flight control computers. So direct mode is the worst case scenario.

Off course that would also trigger a whole series of fault messages starting with autopilot disengaging which would cause one pilot to attempt to keep control of the aircraft while the other pilot attempts to do the checklist to rectify the situation. The third pilot would at this stage of the flight normally be at rest and so not in the cockpit.

The damaged rudder section would soon lead to structural failure at which point the aircraft would start to lose cabin pressure which shows up as a climbing cabin altitude which is what the ACARS fault messages showed. All of that happened within minutes.

This then begs the question of whether, if any of the above did occur, the pilots would have sent a mayday message to ATC? I guess I'm wondering at what point does a pilot send a call for help in the midst of electronic and structural failures?

 

[rs]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

Any explanation must take into account the published facts that there were a series of automated messages transmitted over minutes. You appear to be proposing that the explosion's shock wave instantly broke apart. Unless you also wish to dispute the facts behind the automated messages, this is not consistent.

Actually, it IS consistent since it is known that the entry of such bodies into the atmosphere produces electronic effects in advance of the body itself - it begins to affect things electrically even before it's bodily arrival. There are also electrophonic effects.

Sure, there would be an EMP first, which would most probably interfere with the avionics. Given the distance, the shock wave could have very well been considerably after.

RIO DE JANEIRO - With black boxes yet to be found from the Air France jet that crashed into the Atlantic Ocean, investigators are struggling to draw conclusions from physical evidence and a burst of 24 automatic messages sent from the plane in the minutes before it disappeared.

A full transcript of the messages provides some new insight, but no answers.

An aviation industry official with knowledge of the Air France investigation told The Associated Press that the transcript - found on www.eurocockpit.com and first reported by The New York Times today - was authentic but inconclusive.

I went to the web site but it is in French. My French is poor. OK, so I can't speak French at all...

I tried to search for the transcript in English, but after going through a whole boatload of pages from Google, all about the eurocockpit site and the New York Times article, it was evident that finding an English translation will take some time.

If someone can translate the transcript into English or find a translation, perhaps we can match up the order of failures with the probable occurrence of phenomena associated with a meteor.

However, the first failure has been reported (albeit in the MSM) as the inconsistent air speed indications, which would be an unexpected reaction (to me) to EMP unless the fact that the pitot tubes are mounted externally make them particularly sensitive to EM.

 

[Vulcan59]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

This then begs the question of whether, if any of the above did occur, the pilots would have sent a mayday message to ATC? I guess I'm wondering at what point does a pilot send a call for help in the midst of electronic and structural failures?

Well remember that they were on HF with ATC and therefore that would have been the last thing on their minds. Also the autopilot disengaging would have focused all their attention to what the hell is going on. The failures would also bring a whole lot of ECAM messages which requires the pilots to go through what is called ECAM actions, which basically means having to do the appropriate checklist for that message. Now if there was a whole lot of messages, you can imagine the surprise and the initial shock and so a mayday call would not have been the priority at that point.

The autopilot disengaging is announced by a loud continuous audio and flashing lights and so one pilot would immediately grab the controls and keep the aircraft level while both would be looking at the ECAM messages and trying to figure out what the problem is before calling for the appropraite checklist to do.

 

[anart]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

However, the first failure has been reported (albeit in the MSM) as the inconsistent air speed indications, which would be an unexpected reaction (to me) to EMP unless the fact that the pitot tubes are mounted externally make them particularly sensitive to EM.

Well, to be objective, it's best to realize that it's rather impossible to know what the 'expected reaction' to an EMP, or even electrophonic activity, at that altitude would be on any equipment. One consideration as far as the time the emergency signal was transmitted (assuming the report is to be believed) is whether it continued to transmit after breakup - if it were in an relatively intact section with its own power source, as one would think an emergency transmitter would have, then it could have started transmitting before break up and continued until impact with the ocean. Just a possibility.

 

[Vulcan59]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

However, the first failure has been reported (albeit in the MSM) as the inconsistent air speed indications, which would be an unexpected reaction (to me) to EMP unless the fact that the pitot tubes are mounted externally make them particularly sensitive to EM.

If you look at the ACARS messages received by maintenance at Air France, the very first fault is rudder trim limit fault and not airspeed.

....emergency signal was transmitted (assuming the report is to be believed) is whether it continued to transmit after breakup - if it were in an relatively intact section with its own power source, as one would think an emergency transmitter would have, then it could have started transmitting before break up and continued until impact with the ocean. Just a possibility.

The emergency signal here I assume you mean the ACARS messages, then answer is yes. The computers are normally housed in what is called Electronic Equipment Compartment which usually is right below the cockpit. So if the aft of the aircraft is damaged, that would still allow the computers to sent messages provided that the antennas are still intact and the generators or battery are still functioning. ACARS uses VHF or satellite to send and receive messages.

 

[rs]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

If you look at the ACARS messages received by maintenance at Air France, the very first fault is rudder trim limit fault and not airspeed.

I was confused by the numbers in the left most column. Are the entries on this form in strict chronological order?

 

[Vulcan59]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

I was confused by the numbers in the left most column. Are the entries on this form in strict chronological order?

The numbers to the left refer to the relevant chapter and section of the faults manual where you need to refer to, to find out what is the exact nature of the fault. And yes usually the faults are received in chronological order.

 

[rs]

Re: Air France Plane Goes Down Over Atlantic

I was confused by the numbers in the left most column. Are the entries on this form in strict chronological order?

The numbers to the left refer to the relevant chapter and section of the faults manual where you need to refer to, to find out what is the exact nature of the fault. And yes usually the faults are received in chronological order.

So looking at the first line:

27 23/06 WRN WN0906010210 272302006F/CTL RUD TRV LIM FAULT 09-06-01 AF 447

27 23/06 is the relevant chapter and section of the faults manual.

WRN is the classification of the message

WN0906010210 is the time stamp of the message, this entry is June 1, 2009 at 02:10 (GMT?)

272303006 is the "serial number" of the message

F/CTL RUD TRV LIM FAULT is the "english" (so to speak...) translation of the message serial number

09-06-01 is a redundant entry, minus the TOD

AF447, is, well , obvious.

I notice that there is a burst of messages all with the same time stamp, and since seconds are not part of the time stamp (and the baud rate of the message is likely to be low) it can be reasonably guessed that these initial burst of entries are all related to a "causal event".

On the second "page" of the printout, the time stamps are later than 0210, with the latest time stamp at the top. This implies to me that page two is later than page one, and that the messages should be looked at (more or less) bottom to top rather than top to bottom.

The acronyms can be decoded with the (partial) help of http://www.angelfire.com/sc/scannerpost/acars.html.

I am having difficulty with the apparent out-of-order time stamps for certain messages as well as the incredibly cryptic FLR and "Maintenance Status".

Also, without the seconds, it is also possible that the time stamp of 0210 and 0211 are, in actuality, essentially simultaneous as they could differ only by seconds, and this difference could be related to communication delays. I seriously doubt that the designers of the ACARS intended for this information to be used to precisely reconstruct a time line like a flight data recorder would, so it seems to me that the messages can be divided into essentially two groups, the 0210, 0211 and 0213, 0214. The first group might be the trigger and the second group might be the disintegration of the aircraft.