Coronavirus Pandemic: Apocalypse Now! Or exaggerated scare story?

[psychegram]

This is just incredibly tragic. Retired police sergeant, by al accounts a very kind and generous man, couldn't take the solitary confinement forced by the lockdown, and took his own life.

A lot more like him out there, I suspect.

4D STS is feasting right now.

Ex-policeman takes his life after struggling to cope with isolation

 

[Jones]

They are saying that kids are not affected, yet acknowledge that they can be symptomless carriers or develop mild symptoms. There's something off about the narrative in regards to children. Most parents of school kids that I know frequently talk about the viruses that are bought home from school and then get passed to the family. One of the easing lockdown restriction measures here is sending kids back to school. Since all of that doesn't add up, I'm wondering if they are planning on vaccinating the kids while they are out of sight of their parents?

The official narrative says that a vaccine won't be ready for up to two years, but there's also evidence in the time line that they've been working on a vaccine for years already. So, what if they already have it?

Here in Australia we already have a 'no jab, no pay' policy where low income families that are dependent on Social Security or income supplements have their payments withheld if they don't get their children vaccinated. They don't yet include adults in that legislation.

 

[Alejo]

Doctor Erickson’s video has gone viral and a lot of people have picked it up, Ben Swann did so himself and shared a few thoughts about it, particularly in regards to authoritarianism, that were interesting.

 

[JEEP]

Here in Ohio, Gov. Mikey apparently didn't see the Dr. Erickson video or anything from Dr. Judy Mikovits. So reopening is going to take place, but with lots of conditions:

COLUMBUS (WCMH) — In his Monday announcement on the plan to reopen Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine said retail shops across Ohio can begin reopening May 12 as long as they follow strict rules to keep both customers and employees safe.

During his Monday coronavirus briefing, the governor laid out his timeline for when businesses will be allowed to reopen, with the last group — consumer, retail, and services — being the last on the list.

In order for stores to reopen, business in Ohio must follow the following guidelines:

For their employees:

• Ensure a minimum of 6 feet between people, and if that is not possible, then they must install barriers
• Employees must perform daily symptom checks and require those employees who are showing COVID-19 symptoms to stay home
• Employees must wear face coverings at all times and wash their hands regularly.
• Hand sanitizers must be placed in high-contact locations.
• High-touch areas such as shopping carts and baskets must be cleaned after each use.

For their customers and guests:

• Keep 6 feet of space between people
• Set specific hours for high-risk members of the public, such as seniors
• Place hand sanitizers in high-contact locations for customer use
• Ask customers not to enter if they show COVID-19 symptoms
• Wear face covering while shopping or visiting
• Stagger entry for customers

[Note: we did none of that before but now that it's all but over, we're ordered to do it]

Inside their businesses:

• Ensure a minimum distance of 6 feet between people, and if not possible, install barriers
• Post social distancing signs and disinfect high-contact surfaces every hour
• If possible, clean merchandise before putting it on the shelves
• Set a maximum capacity, which the state says must be 50 percent of what is allowed by the fire code
• Discontinue self-service food stations and product samples
• Keep food courts closed

If there are any confirmed cases within a business:

• Employers must immediately isolate and seek medical care for any individual who develops symptom while at work
• Contact the local health district and inform them of the suspected COVID-19 case
• Close the shop for a deep cleaning and sanitization

Complete and total BS. And that does not include all businesses:

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — Salons and restaurants will need to wait to reopen their doors, Governor Mike DeWine said Monday when announcing phase one of Ohio’s plan to reopen the economy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1254840962947395584

DeWine says we need to see how phase one goes first before reopening those services.

“We are not there yet,” he added. “We don’t want to go backward.”

Included in phase one of reopening is healthcare (May 1), manufacturing, construction, distribution, and “general offices,” (May 4), and consumer retail (May 12).

So no date even looming for getting a haircut or dog grooming. And if I want to shop at a retail store, I won't be given entry without a mask even though no masks required for grocery shopping before this? And where's the scientific validation for these preventative measures? What if I believe as Dr. Mikovits has said that a mask is detrimental to my health? Do I just forego doing any shopping from this point until who knows when? Should I challenge this at the store - risk the wrath of other shoppers? Tell them the science doesn't support the measures we're being forced to follow?

I'm really not physically up to confrontation with anybody even though I'm seething inside at this whole absurd, criminal, insane clown circus being perpetrated upon us all. What I really thinks needs to be done is a legal challenge and an injunction, but that's not something I can make happen. Three bridal shop owners sued the Ohio Health Dept. Director over the stay-at-home order but:

Federal judge rules against bridal shop’s challenge to Ohio health order closing nonessential businesses

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- A federal judge on Monday said Gov. Mike DeWine’s administration has a legal right to close nonessential businesses during the coronavirus pandemic, ruling against a Columbus bridal shop’s lawsuit seeking to force the state to offer appeals hearings to closed businesses.

Chief U.S. District Judge Algenon L. Marbley said that Gilded Social: The Fancy Occasion shop had not been singled out by not being offered a way to contest being ruled nonessential immediately. Marbley said the state has a legitimate justification for its business restrictions.

Marbley declined to issue a temporary restraining order that would have taken effect immediately. He set a May 11 hearing to make a more permanent ruling called a preliminary injunction. But his comments seemed supportive of Health Department Director Dr. Amy Acton’s general legal right to close nonessential businesses, as long as the rules were universally applied and explained.

“It would be a virtual impossibility for every business shut down to be afforded a post-deprivation hearing under these circumstances because every business that would be considered nonessential could conceivably come in and attempt to make the argument how that business was an exception,” Marbley said Monday during a virtual court hearing. “...That is not practical and would fly in the face of the government being able to adequately protect the citizens, due to all the resources would be diverted to having hearings throughout the states for every business to come in to make that argument.”

Tanya Rutner Hartman, the owner of Gilded Social, sued Ohio Health Department Director Dr. Amy Acton last Thursday in federal court in Columbus. The case was brought by a group of attorneys known for conservative legal activism, including the 1851 Center for Constitutional Law in Columbus.
[...]
The stay-at-home order has built-in a dispute resolution panel, but only for situations in which similar businesses were treated differently by different counties or health districts.

But Ohio Assistant Attorney General Katherine Bockbrader said ordering hearings for every business affected by the closures would be logistically impossible, particularly before May 1, when the current stay at home order expires, and when DeWine has said he plans to start rolling back some of the closures.

She also argued Ohioans have the means to push back against the orders through protest and other forms of political pressure.

“If you were to say we have to give the plaintiffs a hearing, that’s one thing, but it’s not going to be possible to give hearings to every business in the State of Ohio,” Bockbrader said. “If we can’t enforce the law without doing that, you’re basically saying we can’t restrict nonessential businesses, and they can operate as they want to.”

The health director and Gov. Mike DeWine have said the order is meant to prevent further spread of the virus in Ohio, where as of Sunday, 471 had died, and 11,602 have tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, according to state health department officials.

Some conservative lawmakers have urged DeWine to ease restrictions as the economic fallout continues, and the governor during a televised address on Thursday spoke of a plan to re-open parts of the state starting May 1.

Federal judge rules against bridal shop’s challenge to Ohio health order closing nonessential businesses

A federal judge on Monday said Gov. Mike DeWine’s administration has a legal right to close nonessential businesses during the coronavirus pandemic, ruling against a Columbus bridal shop’s lawsuit seeking to force the state to offer appeals hearings to closed businesses.

www.cleveland.com

"other forms of political pressure"? Like what? Anybody gotta an extra $100,000 or two to bribe persuade a judge or the speaker of the house of representatives like the nuclear energy lobby did?

I'm hoping the next session we can get a little more insight about how to endure this situation.

 

[Ketone Cop]

Yeah, I can feel it too. It's this heuristic thinking, where you're connecting the dots.

VERY interesting. A few days ago I came thinking about the relationship between symbols and the human mind. When I got to the chapter of the Wave where Laura narrates her encounter with Reiki and how the symbols of Reiki are part of the universe - I understood that - Then I related it to something the C's said: The human being has inside (mind) an exact duplicate of the universe.

Are any of you familiar with manga? (Japanese comic) because I'm going to use some screenshots to illustrate the idea:

How does the human mind interact with the universe, when (the human mind) it is a duplicate of it? The text in the images gives the answer: Our mind is a VIRTUAL MACHINE:

Our mind -guest- is an abstract layer that runs by sharing the hardware -host- and for that operating system -guest- to communicate with the host, it does so by means of HOST SYMBOLS. Those symbols are the archetypes of the universe, which make up the mind of the universe, its THOUGHTS CENTERS and GOD'S NAMES.

Thank you for that, Bluegazer. I think you're on to something there. Symbols are indeed important, though possibly often vilified by those who use them (the elites) in the mainstream so people don't pay attention to them. They've done the same with holistic healing methods, tobacco, and many other natural phenomenon that are otherwise useful.

I did a search on the forum for "Sabian Symbols" and the only two results that came up were from my post and Bluegazers's. I know from reading on this forum that people have mixed feelings about astrology, and deservedly so. The "daily horoscopes" that the MSM has posted for so long are absolute BS, and it is this that has poisoned the well for anyone truly researching this field in the past. I would posit that this may have been done on purpose, if in fact the elites use astrology to plan events, so as to muddy the waters.

But what if the elites have understood that the true power in astrology is in symbology, and not in the rote daily contrived back-page horoscopes that have turned so many off to the field? After all, the roots of astrology are deeply associated with planetary aspects, which are electromagnetic in nature; and if the Electric Universe Theory has any real weight (as I am sure it does!), then why couldn't astronomical events based on real, measurable forces, such as what happens electromagnetically when planets align with each other in mathematical patterns, e.g. such as conjunctions and oppositions between the planets, Earth, the sun and the moon that has been shown to increase the probabilities of earthquakes?

Could then also squares, trines, and other alignments between planets affect not only the physical aspects of our material reality, but also emotional aspects, since our bodies use electromagnetic signals to send messages between neurons and muscles, etc.? And what if every single degree of the zodiac has a defined symbol attached to it that "activates" in predictable ways when planets aspect them, and each planet itself has its own defined electromagnetic effects upon the material world and emotions that have been known for some time?

I posted earlier that "5D" chart from Laura Walker's "Oracle Report" website. She has been following the Sabian Symbols and how the elites use them to plan their events and seed their intentions for over a decade. She is very much aware of the higher-density level of STS interference upon this planet, and of the problem of psychopathy among our elites. So I will ask this:

Would it be useful for me to make a concerted effort to further outline what the Sabian Symbols are, and how they may be being used to determine the timing of when STS forces implement their plans or seed their intentions? I could go into detail, for instance, about what the Symbols are; where they came from; what aspects they involve; how they are used to implement plans or seed consciousness; and then after having done so, I could present Laura's work in a manner that may prove at least interesting - if not ultimately useful - to anticipate events.

Because if she is right, and I have been following her for years and she has a great track record, then being able to have "precognition" about what is planned may enable us to anticipate the "problem/reaction/solution" dialectic and thus "collapse the wave form" of their conceptions of how THEY want THEIR reality to be, with us as pawns, before they can even become a possibility to occur. And in response, we could then reaffirm how we want OUR reality to be, and even use these same energetics to OUR benefit!

I am willing to dig much deeper into this subject and share it on these forums (but in its own thread!), if people are interested. But I won't if others think it would just further increase the noise.

 

[Nachtweide]

The official narrative says that a vaccine won't be ready for up to two years, but there's also evidence in the time line that they've been working on a vaccine for years already. So, what if they already have it?

If we assume that C is right and the virus has been in the world for 2 years, then one can assume that the vaccine has also been researched for 2 years. Anyone who has developed it knows its blueprint. Let us assume that there is also a period before the 2 years when it was planned and tested for functionality. Trials had to be made during this indefinite period. I could very well imagine that the period from idea to implementation began many years ago. Perhaps there is a reference to it in the Corona timeline.

On the one hand, COVID-19 has the task of ensuring constantly flowing capital. The fact that the expected immunity is constantly being questioned shows that capital determines the duration of the immunity. It will be a Mobile Pedal. Vaccination may become quarterly immunity. So the core business of pharmaceuticals at the expense of the world.

I think there is a time problem at the moment. Those who have the vaccine will have to wait until neutral researchers provide results. Otherwise it would stand out. I asked myself the question: On the one hand, there is the idea of vaccinating the entire world permanently. On the other hand, something should be added to the vaccine so that the vaccination only serves as a means of transport. Do small independent companies even have the chance to produce the vaccine because this vaccination is purely virus-related? If the goal was to change human consciousness, vaccination would have to be in one hand. I think this topic will become topical when it is determined who is allowed to join and who receives approval.

 

[aragorn]

I've been looking into the mechanisms of how the various orders and 'recommendations' are finding their ways into governments' decisions makings, and a one of the most influential players/manipulators are the consulting firms. The two largest with their tentacles reaching almost every part of the world are McKinsey and the Boston Consulting Group. As you look into those, and their role in this whole thing, you'll pretty soon find out how the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation has financed many of the projects these firms have done – like for instance, giving advice to the WHO. And, BCG is on the same time into developing 'covid smartphone apps' and other 'great solutions', and producing Covid models and predictions. That's convenient!

So, it looks like these consulting firms are proxies used by the 'men behind the curtain' to steer the decision making around the globe, and both McKinsey and BCG are heavily promoting globalism and a 'digital society'.

Researching these firms, their history and various 'health projects' is a real can of worms, and a deep rabbit hole, and it would take a long time to get to know it all. However, for starters, below is a pretty good overview (on Vox, of all places!). It's a long article (haven't yet completed it), but it offers many very interesting clues:

How McKinsey infiltrated the world of global public health

The Gates Foundation brought billions of dollars to the sector — and a business-friendly ethos consultants could exploit.

www.vox.com

 

[JEEP]

Sunday's Columbus Dispatch headline:

Pandemic costing Ohio colleges millions

As uncertainty over fall semesters looms, the coronavirus pandemic already has cost Ohio colleges hundreds of millions of dollars, sparking conversations about hiring freezes, possible furloughs and other budget reduction measures.

The COVID-19 crisis has cost Ohio’s 14 public universities between $290 million and $310 million this fiscal year, said Bruce Johnson, president of the Inter-University Council of Ohio, an association of the state’s public universities. That includes a combined $171 million in refunds to students, primarily for room and board costs and some fees. Ramping up of online learning has also accounted for costs.

Colleges and universities are still considering what these financial ramifications will mean for them and how they might respond.

“They’re looking at paring down their staffs first, to respond to what we think is a pretty traumatic new normal,” Johnson said.

There is also lost revenue for such things as renting out campus space for conferences and summer camps, he said.

Ohio State University’s housing, dining and recreational fee refunds totaled more than $35 million, and the university expects continued volatility related to investment returns, Michael Papadakis, senior vice president of business and finance and chief financial officer at OSU, said in a written statement.

For the next fiscal year, Ohio State has asked all colleges and units to prepare three budget scenarios: assuming 5%, 10% and 20% reductions in spending.

“We must prepare for fiscal 2021 based on the possibility of ongoing disruptions while continuing to focus on the university’s core academic mission and placing Ohio State in the best possible position for a future in which the virus is contained,” Papadakis said.

Ohio State has already enacted a hiring freeze, which is expected to save $4 million to $6 million through June 30, and paused certain salary increases, which could save the university $5 million to $10 million. OSU also has paused a number of capital projects.

As the university envisions various budget scenarios, the OSU chapter of American Association of University Professors called last week for transparency in financial planning, with a focus on teaching and research. Members also asked that budget decisions prioritize people such as adjunct faculty and graduate students who aren’t protected by tenure.

“The most vulnerable shouldn’t pay for the budget crisis,” said Pranav Jani, an AAUP board member and an associate professor of English.

Meanwhile, the University of Cincinnati announced earlier this month hiring and salary freezes, spending cuts and pay cuts to the university’s leadership team.

And last week, University of Akron President Gary Miller asked the athletics department and all non-academic administrative divisions to present plans for reducing expenditures by 20%. He also asked university leaders to present a plan to reorganize the academic division and reduce the number of colleges and programs.

Private colleges are also game-planning for financial struggles. Urbana University announced last week that it will close after this semester, due to ongoing enrollment challenges and the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

C. Todd Jones, president of the Association of Independent Colleges and Universities of Ohio, doesn’t expect more Ohio private colleges to close in the short term, but he said hiring freezes are already in place at many, and other cuts are likely coming.

“As this continues, colleges are having to look at potential furloughs because when you look at what does college cost, colleges costs are driven by people,” Jones said.

More at:

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200426/covid-19-pandemic-costing-ohio-colleges-millions

My spouse came out of retirement as an Interim CFO for one of Ohio's public colleges beginning in January. An article about that school was picked up by USA TODAY NETWORK.

The University of Akron said on Thursday it will make massive reductions in next year’s budget as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

President Gary Miller released a video message that detailed challenges ahead and immediate plans for cost reductions. No specific savings target was announced.

“I have directed the Provost and his leadership team (including the deans) to present a plan for a full reorganization of the academic division that reduces the number of colleges and the number of programs while fine-tuning our traditional strength areas,” Miller said.

Senior administrators hired before April 1, including Miller, will take a 10% salary reduction next fiscal year.

The athletic department will need to present a plan for a 20% reduction next year as well.

“There is considerable uncertainty about the future of mid-major Division I athletics,” Miller said. “Additional reorganization and reduction may be necessary in that area as we learn more about the future of athletics.”

All non-academic administrative divisions must also present plans for 20% reductions of expenditures.

Hiring has been paused for the rest of this academic year and next, “with rare exceptions related to safety, security and revenue generation,” Miller said.

Miller is also looking to reopen negotiations with all bargaining units “for the purpose of expanding flexibility in collective bargaining agreements with unionized employees.”

“I want to emphasize how this is a defining moment in the history of the university, a moment that will test our courage, resolve and our commitment to the institution and to this great community,” Miller said.

Pam Schulze, president of the Akron chapter of the American Association of University Professors, said she supports at least some elements of the plan Miller released, including the cuts to athletics, but is looking forward to learning more details.

“I know that the chapter wants to work with the administration to help put the university on the right path,” she said.

Decisions on what to cut will ultimately be made by the board of trustees, Miller said.

The announced plan for cuts comes a week after the trustees held a closed-door meeting that covered possible impacts on the university’s already challenging finances.

Following the meeting, the Interim CFO said the university was expecting a deficit by the end of this fiscal year, which ends in June, but declined to say how big of a deficit. Last summer, the board was presented with a budget that included dipping into the university’s savings by $11 million.

But the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic woes have thrown higher education into a tailspin. Akron sent students home mid-March, moving all classes online. The university was already fighting to reverse a trend of declining enrollment, but now students are faced with uncertainty about their fall semester as well. How that will affect enrollment is unclear.

The state already told the university to expect a $5 million reduction in state funding the rest of this fiscal year, and a $20 million reduction next year. Federal stimulus funds will total $14 million for Akron, but half that is required to go to students, leaving the university with just $7 million to fill its growing hole. The university already spent almost $8 million refunding students this semester for part of their room and board after they were sent home.

Miller took over as president in October and quickly assembled a team to draft a new strategic plan for the university focusing on increasing enrollment. That process was put on hold last month amid the pandemic, but Miller said in his video message Thursday that he can’t wait to move ahead on some of the pieces of the first drafts of that plan.

“Like all other universities in Ohio and elsewhere, the pandemic has weakened us to an extent requiring immediate and decisive action,” he said.

Miller illustrated several ways the university may look different moving forward, including having a smaller physical footprint, using a combination of online and in-person classes and a “a much leaner and more focused research operation.”

“Please suspend your disbelief in the ability of great universities to make rapid, positive and dramatic change,” Miller said. “We can do this. We must do this.”

There were costs involved in switching over to online classes, too. Undoubtedly, lots of jobs to be lost and perhaps all the struggling colleges, too. Plus, the stress of it all - for a nothingburger virus.

Hubby has been working from home since the stay-at-home order was given but may be returning to Akron on Monday. Which will leave me on my own again during the week. Daughter is afraid to come over for fear she'll pass on Covid as I'm in the susceptible demographic. Don't know if I could get a sort of "exemption" from wearing a mask from my alternative health care provider; would it be honored? And if pork and chicken keep getting culled, what happens when the shelves go empty? One can stock the freezer, but will I continue to have electricity if I don't get the vax? I really wouldn't mind the group maybe asking for that "basket" provision from ancient times via the Cs if things really go south. What once was unimaginable is no more.

So things are more than dire, right? Here's what was smack dab in the middle of the Dispatch front page today - can't copy Dispatch photos but if you go to 1:16 in the vid, that's the image that appeared.

Grappling with stardom

Andrew Levitt, also known as Nina West, has the final touches applied by makeup artists Aurora Sexton, left, and Kalyd Sebastian Odeh during a recent photo shoot. Sexton and Odeh are both from Los Angeles.

Well there you go - people are desperate about lost jobs, losing their apartments or homes, feeding their children, but really, Drag Queens are just soo important and worthy of attention!

Beyond any sense of belief that ever existed before!

 

[domi]

Don't think anybody posted this on Sott or in this thread:

Bakersfield doctors dispute need for stay-at-home order

Doctors Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi of Accelerated Urgent Care are calling for the county to reopen despite the on-going COVID-19 pandemic. The two held a press conference Wednesday, during which, they talked about the coronavirus pandemic both at the state and local level. During the...

bakersfieldnow.com

part 1: Very important COVID19 briefing with Dr Erickson - end the lockdown now!
part 2:

Worth watching both of these Bakersfield doctors using actual data to show the actual death rate.

 

[JEEP]

Don't think anybody posted this on Sott or in this thread:

Yes, already here and referenced again toward the top of this page. It's a great vid although in the longer version, vaccines have their full approval.

 

[unkl brws]

A friend of mine posted this on FB and wanted people to read this-

Running out of Outlets

I don't know if this is a fake blog/psyop or maybe this person is a psychopath. I wouldn't want her as my nurse.
Near the end of her entry, she writes:

I am honored to be able to be a part of something historic and to help save lives each day.

Then at the end, she writes a message to "Those protesting the stay-at-home orders":

Anyone protesting should forfeit their rights to receive any medical care. NONE. You are putting the lives of anyone you come into contact with because of your boredom and selfishness. You are putting every single healthcare worker’s life not only at an increased risk, but your disrespect for humankind because of your ignorance and stupidity is beyond appalling. You are a disgrace.

 

[Jones]

I just added another document to the Coronavirus Timeline called "A primer on the macroeconomic effects of an influenza pandemic" published by the Australian Treasury in 2006. In this document they use the word 'shock' a lot.

The document talks about the 'TRYM' or 'Treasurey Macroeconomic' model. Even though modelling can produce fake figures, this doc might be handy to identify sign posts for guidance as to what is on it's way economically. I've taken on board the idea that PTB are just taking advantage of circumstances as they arise, but where they use the 'steps' in an economic model, it seems as though it's all planned from the get go.

4.TRYM modelling of a pandemic shock

In this section we present a simulation of a pandemic scenario using the Treasury Macroeconomic (TRYM) model. While the TRYM model is not explicitly designed to model the economic effects of a pandemic, it does provide an internally consistent theoretical framework within which to consider the likely impacts, which can then be used as a starting point in considering possible policy responses. Because the model does not include representations of many of the transmission mechanisms that are likely to play an important role in a pandemic, some aspects of the shock have been imposed using arbitrary adjustments to existing model equations.

In order to make clear the mechanisms by which a pandemic would affect the economy, and to highlight the effects of different aspects of the shock, we present the pandemic scenario by introducing effects one-by-one and presenting the cumulative effects on the economy. We start with the effects on demand for our exports of our trading partners being affected by the pandemic. Then, in turn, we add the effects of domestic deaths, the effects of labour force absenteeism, confidence effects on consumption, confidence effects on investment, and finally the impact of business closures on the demand for labour.

This is by no means an exhaustive list of all of the elements of the economic impact of a pandemic outbreak on the Australian economy. However, we think that it does capture the major components of such a shock, which then, through the linkages in the TRYM model, propagate through the entire economy.

The scenario we model is of a nationwide outbreak of a highly contagious influenza virus with a mortality rate of 0.2 per cent of the population, or 40,000 deaths nationwide. This is lower that in the 1957 and 1968 pandemics, when the mortality rate was 0.65 per cent of the population, and is small relative to the 1918 outbreak, for which mortality rates are estimated in the range of 2 to 5 per cent. The number of deaths that would result from a pandemic depends on how contagious the virus is, its virulence, and the success of measures to limit its spread, and the mortality rate we have chosen is meant only to be illustrative.

Our analysis is done at the aggregate level for Australia, effectively assuming that the virus spreads extremely rapidly and has a uniform impact across the entire country. This assumption is made in large part to suit the highly aggregate nature of the TRYM model. We also assume that the shock is one-off although it is generally accepted that there are likely to be a total of three or four waves of infections spread out over a period of up to 18 months.

The cumulative effects of the shocks are presented in Table 4.1 in through-the-year growth terms. We only examine the effects in the first year. In the right-most column of the table we include the steady-state growth rates of each of the economic series we consider. These growth rates represent the assumed rates at which each of the series would grow if the economy were unaffected by shocks or disturbances. This is referred to as the equilibrium growth path or the steady-state balanced growth path.

Step 1 — World demand shock

A pandemic is unlikely to start independently or spontaneously within Australia and is likely to manifest itself first in neighbouring countries. There is likely to be a dramatic and immediate economic response to this, particular in the tourism exports sector.

Foreign tourism to Australia is estimated to generate close to $18 billion a year in exports, which is over 2 per cent of GDP and 12 per cent of total exports of goods and services. Moreover, foreign tourism directly accounts for around 2½ per cent of total Australian employment.

An outbreak in trading partner countries is also likely to result in an interruption in the supply of, and demand for, imports. In particular, we would expect a large decline in tourism-related overseas travel by Australians.

In our simulations, we limit our attention to the shock to export demand. To capture the overall impact on exports, we assume a 20 per cent fall in major trading partner demand that then slowly recovers to a long-run level that is reduced proportional to the number of deaths. The 20 per cent decline in demand is intended to encompass both the reduction in economic activity in trading partners and interruptions in economic linkages between Australia and its trading partners, including the closure of transport linkages.

The movement in the exchange rate is difficult to judge and will depend on the impact of the pandemic on Australia relative to its trading partners. The experience of SARS epidemic suggests that impacts might vary considerable across countries. As a first approximation we have assumed no change in the exchange rate

The results of the 20 per cent fall in trading partner GDP in the TRYM model are summarised in the column of table 4.1 labelled step 1. There is an 8.9 per cent reduction in export growth over the first year (export volumes decline by 5.3 per cent with the shock, compared with 3.6 per cent growth on the equilibrium path). Non-commodity exports account for the majority of this change.

The resulting slower business-output growth affects employment and household income, which in turn reduces household consumption growth. There is a one-half percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, and GDP growth through the first year slows from 3.6 per cent in the steady state, to 2 per cent with the shock.

Step 2 — Deaths

We next add in the effects of 40,000 deaths in the first quarter of the first year. The deaths are assumed to be evenly distributed across all age groups so we see a proportional 0.2 per cent decline in the working age population.

While the TRYM model undoubtedly misses some of the indirect effects of deaths, such as on family members, the overall direct impacts on GDP to emerge from the modelling are small. The impact of deaths is more evident in the long-run as the level of GDP falls, though per capita GDP and the growth rate of GDP are unchanged by assumption (labour productivity levels are assumed to remain unchanged in the long-run).

These results illustrate the point that domestic deaths have little direct short-run economic impact and represent only a small part of the total economic effects of a pandemic.

Step 3 — Labour force

Next we add in the effects of work absenteeism, as workers seek to avoid infection by staying away from their workplaces. This is particularly likely to happen in the service sectors where contact with the public is required. These industries (excluding health and community services) comprise around 34 per cent of total employment and 25 per cent of total employee incomes.

Here we assume that around 20 per cent of the labour force is absent from work over the first quarter. Participation is then assumed to recover over the subsequent quarters. By the end of the first year a significant number of previously employed people remain out of the labour force, reflecting possibly ongoing responsibilities for caring for family members and caution about possible second and third waves of infection.

The result of the fall in the labour force is that employment also declines but by less than the labour force so the unemployment rate falls. Lower employment means lower income, and therefore lower household consumption and lower GDP. Interestingly we see that firms lift investment as wages climb and they substitute capital for labour. This effect will be unwound in Step 5.

We also see strong wages growth as a result of the fall in the supply of labour. This wages growth flows through to higher general inflation to which the standard TRYM model monetary policy reaction function responds by increasing interest rates substantially. This reaction is also completely unwound when allowance is made for confidence effects in the steps that follow.

Step 4 — Confidence effects on consumption

The domestic outbreak of a pandemic is likely to have very significant confidence effects. In this step we allow for confidence effects on consumption; in the next step we look at investment.

Even with only a small number of deaths, the confidence effects on consumption are likely to be large and immediate and are likely to overshadow all other factors in the short-run. However, the confidence effects are also the most difficult to quantify. The sectors that are most likely to be affected are the service-related sectors like hotels, restaurants, and cultural and sporting events. The recreation and culture and hotels, cafes and restaurants sectors together account for around 20 per cent of total household consumption.

Another effect on consumption, but one that we do not model, is the effect of a fall in household wealth — both dwelling wealth and financial wealth. It is very likely that we would see large falls in both house and equity prices under a scenario such as this.

In this step we reduce household consumption by 10 per cent in the first quarter of the scenario before allowing it to recover of its own accord over the subsequent quarters.

The result of this shock is that household consumption declines by 6.3 per cent through the year (compared with positive growth of 0.6 per cent without the confidence shock). The large fall in consumption results in a recession and an increase in the unemployment rate which exacerbates the fall in consumption. When allowance is made for confidence effects, the model’s monetary policy reaction function dictates a decrease in interest rates, in contrast to the rise in the previous step.

Step 5 — Business and dwelling investment

Traditionally business investment and dwelling investment are the two most volatile components of GDP. Indeed, during the 1990–91 recession, while consumption and GDP declined by only around 1 per cent below their pre-recession peaks, dwelling investment declined by 21 per cent and business investment by 31 per cent from their pre-recession peaks. Another distinguishing feature of both forms of investment is the relative length of slowdowns. In the 1990–91 recession consumption remained below its previous-peak for four quarters and GDP for seven quarters. In contrast, business investment and dwelling investment remained below their pre-recession peaks for 23 quarters and 16 quarters.

In this step we apply a negative adjustment to both dwelling investment and business investment. In Step 4, while business investment is already falling (due to weak domestic demand), dwelling investment, which is largely dependent on short-term interest rates, is still growing. The adjustments we apply in this step generate a 7.4 per cent decline in business investment and a decline of 12.6 per cent in dwelling investment. Consistent with the relative persistence of investment slowdowns in history, both of the investment adjustments are considerably longer than the one year we examine here.

Despite the investment downturn being moderate by historical standards, its implications for GDP in the scenario are considerable with GDP now falling by over 5 per cent. This constitutes a recession that is about half the size of the Great Depression, and is therefore very severe by historical standards.

Step 6 — Business labour demand

In the final step of the scenario we apply a large negative demand shock to labour consistent with a substantial reduction in business hiring and a large number of temporary business shutdowns. The effect is a decline in household income and a large increase in the unemployment rate. However, we also see a further decline in prices as the higher unemployment rate results in wage falls which feed general price deflation. This means that real wealth actually increases in this step, and this offsets the potentially negative effects on household consumption of falling labour income and unemployment.

Summing up

While quantifying the effects of confidence on household consumption and investment is difficult, it appears from the simulation that the confidence effects arising from a pandemic could be very detrimental to economic activity. With households reducing consumption, particularly of service-related goods, and with businesses curtailing both investment and employment, GDP could contract by over 5 per cent over the first year following an outbreak of a highly contagious pandemic.

Consequently, quickly re-establishing consumer and investor confidence is likely to be one of the important roles for governments to play. Governments might also consider policies that help viable businesses through the worst of the pandemic — in particular those businesses, such as restaurants, that are likely to be most severely affected by a pandemic. Lastly, there may be an important role for governments in stimulating growth in the economy. This would not only be in terms of monetary policy, but discretionary fiscal policy would also be important in stimulating demand and promoting improved confidence. In this simulation, even before discretionary fiscal policy, the government budget balance moves to significant deficit as a result of automatic stabilisers.

Medium-term dynamic effects

Clearly a pandemic of the magnitude we have modelled will have effects beyond the one year we have presented above. The full TRYM model simulation shows that while consumption and GDP growth have both recovered by the end of the second year, the unemployment rate does not start falling until the third year of the shock. This is largely because labour supply by households recovers very quickly while labour demand by business recovers relatively slowly. The higher unemployment rate means that nominal wages continue to fall over that period resulting in a sustained period of general price deflation. This means that the model’s Taylor Rule for setting short-term interest rates holds the nominal interest rate low for an extended period, resulting in a strong bounce back in dwelling investment in particular.

In our simulation of a pandemic, government spending and tax rates are held constant over the first year. A more realistic scenario would allow for increased spending on pandemic-related measures and possibly fiscal policy used aggressively to stimulate the economy, particularly in the short-term. This would moderate the decline in GDP shown in the table, but the impact would be modest unless the policy change — tax cuts or increased spending — could significantly counter the effects of the pandemic on consumer and business confidence.

Policy implications

Given the uncertainty around the size and evolution of a pandemic, let alone how a pandemic would affect the economy, it is reasonable to question the usefulness of pandemic modelling exercises. Indeed it would be foolhardy to focus on the numbers produced by economic modelling rather than on the thinking around how pandemics might affect the economy. In this paper we found that, by examining the pathways through which a pandemic might affect the economy, we gained insights into the larger economic effects of a pandemic, and into where policy might be most effective.

We can consider economic policies according to the framework we used in section 3 — that is, policies that affect household behaviour, businesses and government. In this paper, we found that confidence effects primarily affecting households’ behaviour may be one of the more important avenues through which the economy is affected by a pandemic. Furthermore, confidence effects in combination with the short-term withdrawal of labour are likely to produce most of the short-term negative impact on the economy. The number of deaths from a severe pandemic need not be high — that depends on the virulence of the strain and the effectiveness of treatment. However, our modelling suggests that even if a relatively large number of people die, the direct economic effects through a permanent reduction in labour supply are relatively small in comparison with the other economic effects, despite the enormous personal distress caused. This does not mean of course that policy makers should encourage activities that reduce the effects of the withdrawal of labour but might lead to further deaths. However, it does suggest a role for government in promoting an environment in which people can quickly resume economic activity once a pandemic begins to dissipate.

Businesses would also be greatly affected by a pandemic, particularly those involved in tourism and delivering services more generally. Policies that might be effective in negating the economic effects of a pandemic relate to short-term support to businesses most affected by the pandemic, perhaps through creative finance arrangements. This would enable viable businesses to adjust more rapidly once a pandemic passes.

Lastly, in the case of a large pandemic, monetary and fiscal policy responses that stimulate the economy will clearly be required. In addition to the fiscal measures that accompany the direct management of a pandemic, there is likely to be a need for expansionary fiscal policy to help stimulate demand and, most importantly, to restore consumer and business confidence. Of course, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies will only be effective if they are accompanied by a range of other policy measures that maintain financial stability and promote business continuity.

 

[Argos]

Bonjour,
je ne sais pas si cela a déjà été mentionné, mais un point du discours que j'ai remarqué en regardant la télévision nationale (Belgique) récemment et j'ai été impressionné par ce discours hystérique où une fausse expression se répétait encore et encore: "Distanciation sociale" comme étant une règle impérative alors qu'il s'agit simplement "d'une distanciation physique" ...
autre sale manipulation sémantique qui déforme la réalité, le rapprochement social est certainement une peur bien réelle de la part des responsables de la narration du système!

 

[luc]

The document talks about the 'TRYM' or 'Treasurey Macroeconomic' model. Even though modelling can produce fake figures, this doc might be handy to identify sign posts for guidance as to what is on it's way economically. I've taken on board the idea that PTB are just taking advantage of circumstances as they arise, but where they use the 'steps' in an economic model, it seems as though it's all planned from the get go.

Great find! Looks like in their wishful thinking, that's what they expected to happen when they shut down the world, plus all the benefits in terms of tyranny and control - but as the Cs said, hubris!

 

[Persephone]

Would it be useful for me to make a concerted effort to further outline what the Sabian Symbols are, and how they may be being used to determine the timing of when STS forces implement their plans or seed their intentions? I could go into detail, for instance, about what the Symbols are; where they came from; what aspects they involve; how they are used to implement plans or seed consciousness; and then after having done so, I could present Laura's work in a manner that may prove at least interesting - if not ultimately useful - to anticipate events.

Because if she is right, and I have been following her for years and she has a great track record, then being able to have "precognition" about what is planned may enable us to anticipate the "problem/reaction/solution" dialectic and thus "collapse the wave form" of their conceptions of how THEY want THEIR reality to be, with us as pawns, before they can even become a possibility to occur. And in response, we could then reaffirm how we want OUR reality to be, and even use these same energetics to OUR benefit!

I am willing to dig much deeper into this subject and share it on these forums (but in its own thread!), if people are interested. But I won't if others think it would just further increase the noise.

I know very little about Sabian Symbols (from an astrologist friend but it was many years ago and at that time I didn't get interested in it further) but I think it would be an interesting approach/perspective (for lack of a better word) as any different approach, when based on truth can but help us to reach a deeper understanding of reality, its dynamic and laws.