Coronavirus Pandemic: Apocalypse Now! Or exaggerated scare story?

[hesperides]

Referring to Liam1310´s post about statements made by Dr. Marc Lipsitch, the professor of epidemiology with the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston, this part caught my attention, where he says:

"The researchers will be working on vaccines to prevent infection and antivirals to treat the sick, but the effort is a more holistic approach designed to figure out the basic biology of the virus and how to fight it. You need to know who are the people most likely to have severe outcomes in order to design clinical trials, you need to know how the disease spreads in order to design vaccine studies and predict where those might take place and in what sample size."

So, it´s plain clear their future new vaccines won´t only be addressing those who get the flu, but most importantly all those who are likely to get it, and same concerning purportedly sensible areas of the globe. No doubt their kind of prediction abilities will stir up even more stress in the next future.

 

[Woodsman]

James Corbett did a recent video debunking the 5G connection:

I like this video.

The 5G element seems likely to be another burden on public health which might amplify/exacerbate existing issues. That makes sense.

However, suggesting that it is the actual primary cause of the effects attributed to Coronavirus falls into the Flat Earth/Crisis Actor territory. Those sorts of ideas tend to smell the same.

I've never been able to quantify why they smell the same. Maybe it's time to try:

Theories which fail the sniff test are those formed based on connections which have a caricatured sense of scale/amplitutde of effect. -Hinging on the theorist's own inexperience with scale and amplitude of real-world forces.

An example would be:

There is a connection between two people. They are cousins. Does that mean if one cousin robbed a drugstore that the other cousin was in on it?

Possibly, but first one must ask, "How close were the two cousins?" If their lives and marriages and jobs took them far apart from one another so that they didn't even send polite Christmas cards and don't have each other's phone numbers in their address books, then the value of their connection is very low strength and may be reasonably struck from the equation.

If, however, they were drug buddies living together in a trailer, then the possibility of their having a connection to the same crime is much higher in strength.

The familial association by itself means nothing without understanding the strength/scale of their connection.

All things in the world can be measured in terms of their relative scale of effect and proximity, etc., to everything else in the world. Only by living and experiencing and testing boundaries and relationships across many spheres can a person build up an internal catalog of those relative measures, which then becomes automated in their grey matter connection machines, expressed generally as a part of 'instinct'. Learning scales is an on-going cumulative life process.

As our experience in the world accumulates, we become better able to discern between likely connections and unlikely connections when looking at various theories.

To assist in determining the value of a theory, we might look at each connection required by that theory and ask ourselves, "How familiar am I with the scale of that connection strength and what can I do to reduce uncertainty?"

 

[Michael B-C]

Me too. That's why I didn't include the whole article.

But it's just nuts what people will put together sometimes.

Whatever the source, this misuse of the significant dangers of 5G will still no doubt end up serving the powers that be rather than raising awareness of its ability to compromise general health. When the virus-mongering has passed (for now) we will still be left with 5G roll out only now when people raise concerns about it they will be more easily labeled mad tin hats because of the inappropriate connections made during the outbreak. Game theory. Order out of chaos.

 

[Yozilla]

Hmm this 5G hype is quite similar to forcing those ugly stickers on tobacco products that claim that you'll get cancer if you smoke. Telling a lie a million times and it becomes fact after masses buy it. Everybody knows that 5G is dangerous to health is being pushed persistently so there you have a thick underlying base for people start to "feel" sick en masse - a kind of contra placebo thingy. And 5G infrastucture is spreading all over and covering the most populated areas. Add some hypnotic shock inductor like this morona spell and there you have a beast of it's own - perpetum mobile. Than you can launch snake oils of any kind of garden variety with market-work so ferociously rolled out...

 

[Woodsman]

I'd like to add an update to an idea I mentioned recently about those paper masks. I didn't make it clear (because I hadn't fully realized it myself):

They're designed to stop the wearer from spreading pathogens to others. Not the other way around. They trap and collect moisture particles coming from the wearer's own mouth and nose.

They're designed for use in the same way as those boxes of one-time-use latex gloves; in a nursing home, for instance, you'll put on a pair of gloves to work with a client, then before touching anything else, you pull them off and throw them away. That way you don't spread pathogens to the next client or to doorknobs and faucets and similar. They're designed for very short term use to control the spread of particles from known/possible sources. With gloves, they mitigate spread from physical surfaces, with masks they mitigate spread from your own breath. Typically, in the past, in cultures (like Japan) when you saw people wearing masks on subways, etc., it was because they had a cold and out of external consideration, wore the mask to prevent themselves from infecting other people.

People today are using this type of mask to prevent themselves from catching airborne particles. The masks may provide some protection in this regard if used for short periods of time, but that was not their intended design function and they probably don't do a good job of it.

 

[SOTTREADER]

I understand and i can agree to some extent here, but to put in quarantine an entire country when other european countries don't apply such draconic measures (yet, it remains to be seen if they will), when the US president says to the entire country that a lot more american people are dying from the flu every year and the daily life is not stopping basically criticizing those who are trying to push the hysteria line in the US regarding the coronavirus, all this it gives me a strong feeling that what is doing the italian government is WRONG and it may have huge consequences on many levels for millions of people. I'm bragging here because i lost some comfortable life because of the whole situation? I'm not, i don't even own a house or a car, what i earn is enough for my daily needs so i don't think that in this case my thinking is biased, the point is, from what i've learned about the virus thanks to this thread and sott my conclusion stays the same as before, that is, it's a more stronger type of flu, most vulnerable being the elder people, of course everyone should have the common sense and look for themselves, that's it. The whole quarantine thing it's not justified in my opinion, maybe i'm missing something here, i'm not excluding such a possibility. For the moment will stick with this one.

@Andrian, the reason they are doing all that is to slow down the spread of the virus to reduce the number of people going to hospital.

The hospitals can only cope with a limited number of people at any given time. With regards the flu, as the flu cases happen every year, the hospital capacity have been adjusted to deal with the annual flux of flu cases. However, covid is new so hospital capacity have not been adjusted to deal with those extra people going in and needing beds.

They are trying to slow it down - in spring and summer flu cases will go down and more room will be available in hospitals to deal with covid 19. Then the restrictions will ease I think.

That looks to be there logic.

Here in the UK, they have a similar strategy but they are waiting for cases to spike before they start closing things down... Again, they don't want everyone turning up to their local hospital at the same time because they have covid-19. Anyways, if your case is mild they will tell you to stay at home and sit it out. The hospital will only be reserved for those who develop serious complications.

A friend of mine works in the BBC and their internal people have issued communications that in May most of the country will be asked to work from home. Another friend's partner who is a doctor in London mentioned to the partner that they have been given a confidential memo for doctors to buy enough dry food for themselves but not to tell the public (to avoid hysteria).

@Andrian most other European countries will start instituting the same measures Italy has once their confirmed cases start to jump. Italy is now confirming nearly 2000 cases each day and in each day the number is more than the previous day. By instituting these measures they want those numbers to go down! They are also telling old people to stay at home (the more go out, the more get sick, the more go to hospital, the more the hospital can't cope). Also another thing to mention is the governments are working on models that assume this covid infects people exponentially... So you might think 2000 cases a day is not bad compared to the flu but these numbers have the potential to grow exponentially if left to their own devices.

Also look, Italian government is trying to make it easier for people: Italy to suspend mortgage payments during coronavirus outbreak

 

[SOTTREADER]

@Andrian this might also be useful.

Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Scroll down to the chart showing new daily cases and deaths... You'll see how in each day the number being reported is higher than the previous day. They are trying to reverse that so that in each day, the number of new cases (and deaths) is lower than the previous day.

In China, they have managed to do that hence why they are closing all those hospitals they built. China did this by essentially instituting draconian social distancing measures.

China COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

China Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Again, another way to look at it... 2 weeks ago, Italy only had 4 cases.... By the end of today they will have more than 10k cases and chasing down China quickly. This are only confirmed cases mind you, so you need to work in orders of magnitudes to understand how many more cases are out there.

Again, going back to the beginning... If they just let the numbers go up so that in another 2 weeks Italy had 40k cases (remember exponential growth), the hospitals will come to a stand still! Also if you look at the Italian chart, you'll see that of the current active cases, 10% are critical (so they need heavy medical attention) and from the resolved cases (61% were cure but 39% died). We're only dealing with thousands here but if the numbers keep going up, the thousands will turn to tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands and so forth. Hence why government has decided to try and do something to control those numbers!!!

 

[SOTTREADER]

@Andrian one final thing. So countries that test more aggressively will find more cases which in turn may lead to mass hysteria. On the flip side of that, these countries will know where the cases are, what communities have the biggest spread, they can map out clusters etc which will mean they can take action to effectively control the numbers.

E.g. they can lock down a certain community or close schools there etc but also they can know where to divert their resources.

In the US and UK, we have taken a different approach. The testing is not aggressive so our numbers appear low which means they can manage the hysteria better (which again seemed to have failed). However, on the flip side of that, the government doesn't have a good picture of where this virus is in their respective countries. That's okay? Right?

Well, the problem is that due to exponential growth, things can go from being okay to not okay literally in a matter of days once a critical mass of infections is reached. All of a sudden, the hospitals will find there are untold number of people who need urgent help all at the same time, politicians will also start to get sick, other countries will start seeing an uptick in their covid cases from people coming into their country from the infected country etc etc.

Essentially, what a country needs to do is decide when it wants to pay its price. Do you want to pay it upfront? Find the cases quickly, institute the measures quickly and be done with it in a short space of time or do you not want to find these cases quickly.... Wait to hit the critical mass at which point all your health resources are stretched to breaking. Chaos ensues, other countries cut you off etc etc.

In the US and UK, we have opted to pay the price later. @Andrian you just wait for April and May in these 2 countries and you'll witness for yourself chaos that will dwarf Italy.

 

[Carl]

There is some indication that the virus is worse in some cases than is being said. To be honest all I have seen from anyone on this topic is sheer complacency - pretty much everyone on the street having the same idea (it's just the flu). This isn't usually such a good sign when it comes to what is vs what is not a potential threat.

 

[Andrian]

Here in Italy the people are hoping for the better of course, will be glad to give some updates in the next couple of dates. I didn't want to sound aggressive or angry in my previous post, the fact is that it's tough, I see around people who are really, really worried about the fact that won't be able to pay the rent and feed their kids. Will get to you when there will be updates from Italy.

 

[SOTTREADER]

@Andrian more numbers for you.

In broad terms, this is how you should conceptualise the virus.

80% of those infected will have mild to no symptoms (20% of this 80% will be asymptomatic but will still be carrying the virus and infecting others). For these 20% asymptomatic carriers, they need 10 days of social isolation before there immune system has sufficiently nullified the virus for them to not infect others)

15% will have some symptoms. They may or may not need medical attention.

5% will have serious or critical symptoms. These 5% will definitely need medical help and the death rate will be highly influenced by the quality of medical help they get.

Other data points for you.

On average, it takes between 4 - 6 days for the number of infected to double if no counter measures are taken.

From point of infection to potentially needing medical help, it takes 2 to 6 weeks.

So @Andrian, if someone infected comes into a community with no infection, they'll start infecting people and the numbers will double every 4 - 6 days. If these goes undetected, everything will appear okay for between 2 - 6 weeks and depending on how big that community is, by the end of the 6 weeks, 5% will be in hospital, another potential 15 % will need medical help depending on how bad their symptoms are.

So I hope you're starting to get the picture of how Italy went from being okay 2 weeks ago, to not being okay today and why they are scrambling to trying to control things.

 

[loreta]

Here in Italy the people are hoping for the better of course, will be glad to give some updates in the next couple of dates. I didn't want to sound aggressive or angry in my previous post, the fact is that it's tough, I see around people who are really, really worried about the fact that won't be able to pay the rent and feed their kids. Will get to you when there will be updates from Italy.

Normal. I can understand you and understand people who are worried. Here in Spain those who asked for drastic measures are very happy, they ask for the same measures than Italy. Are they aware of what they are asking? they are happy now because no more airplanes from Italy will come in Spain. They really want a quarantaine. Are happy to announce that schools are closed and some stores start to closed.

Today I asked to the director of the prison (where I have a Book Club) if there was a protocol concerning this situation. She told me that surely voluntaries will not be able to go to the prison very soon for a while.
Take care!

 

[Lukasz]

Can somebody turn this into an image that can be posted on Twitter:

Here is my attempt:

It should look nice on Facebook etc.

And elderberry tea recipe:


Polish language version:


If any of you would like to translate this infographic into any other language, you can send me your translation and I will prepare another version

 

[thorbiorn]

The Corona situation in Southern Scandinavia
Over the last week the news about the Corona virus in Danish papers like Berlingske, Politiken and Jyllands-Posten have grown first slowly and now extremely rapidly especially in the first two papers published in Copenhagen. All other issues have almost faded out. So far, there are still only 156 confirmed cases with no dead and most leveled is probably the business paper Borsen.dk which still says that Norwegian has cancelled 3000 flight and send workers home on a temporary basis, that Italy has closed down the economy and that Germany is moving into recession.

The main concerns seems to be that the health system will collapse if the spread of the disease is too rapid, but there is a general understanding that it will eventually reach most people. The Government will call students of medicine, and retired doctors. The priorities will be to take care of the elderly and the weak, others will have less service if the system is challenged. In Italy however they have in some places, according to this article also other priorities as they also look at who has the best chances of surviving and who has statistically most years left to live.

"Symptoms" in society
At the dentist I visited yesterday, there was a note on the door saying that if one has been to Italy, China, Iran or ... then one should not enter, but go home and arrange for another appointment. One high school has been closed, etc. People are advised to avoid travelling during rush hours, but how is that going to be practical or possible? The PM has recommend to cancel events with more than 1000 people gathered. The National Board of Health recommends people to avoid handshakes, kisses and hugs. (Will they be checking the compliance rate in 9 months ). In spite of local recommendations to avoid the handshakes, kisses, and hugs the virtual ones are still legal. Today, there was an article with a headline saying the population is at risk of going up in flames due to the much increased use of sanitary alcohol which is about 80 % ethanol and flammable- that was a joke, but last weekend, I entered a building store which encouraged people to use the bottle of sanitary alcohol before entering the shop area.


The information from Government institutes

Surgeon: Almost everyone will be affected by corona over a number of years
We must focus on the fact that coronavirus has come to stay, says department head of the State Serum Institute.
The coronavirus has come to stay, and it is likely that almost all Danes will be infected with the disease over a number of years.

This is what Dr. Tyra Grove Krause of the State Serum Institute says. She is the Head of Department at the Department of Infectious Epidemiology and Prevention.

- We are all susceptible to the virus, and it will probably behave like what we know from pandemic influenza, where more waves of infection will occur.

Later she says that up to 10-15 % could get infected in the first round, and that the Winter is more serious. The task she says is to limit the infection rate so the health system will be able to cope. (Denmark has about 6 ICU beds per 100,000). Come to stay means also that one may expect many more lasting changes in society.

The police has a page with advice which includes measures regarding pets. Let us see how people take this, but if anyone considered buying a dog, would they change their mind after reading the guidelines? The problem is how to walk a dog if one gets the virus and has to stay inside. This is easier for people who own a house, but if it is only a flat it sure increases the level of complications.

Some effects on the local economy
Financially, the present Corona panic may cause many more issues than the sole concern of the health system being overloaded. The share market has gone down so much, that the tax revenues already now will be less by the hundreds and hundreds of millions. Add to this all the incomes not earned due to people being advised to stay more at home, venues cancelled, and some companies, at this very early stage, already asking for help and lenience from the Government to avoid economic problems and even default, but with less tax incomes, Government will need to make changes in the policies implemented. It is not difficult to speculate what changes in society might come as a result, but the future is also open, so what will be experienced is not a given. What would be nice to avoid would be mandatory vaccination schemes.

Political issues pushed down on the priority list because of Corona
Besides the Corona issue, another prominent issue which would have taken center stage had not the Corona come, is that the large majority of political parties and politicians have been convinced that the country needs to save the thriving polar bears from dying out, the ice that is not melting from melting and in general save the world from CO2 and become a world leader of CO2 virtues. To reach the goal there will be, the highest CO2 tax in the world, new taxes on beef and air travel, expert recommendations for 40 % more for car gas, and a determination to have 40 % electric cars by 2030. Few dare ask if this ambition to be a world leader in CO2 reduction is meaningful. Still another concern is the European refugee and illegal immigrants issues that drains the present social welfare systems while adding more CO2 consumers, perhaps that is why the Danish Government has suggested to set up camps in countries closer to places the people come from.

One positive outcome is that the Corona response may assist a few to bring their attention to more fundamental questions of life, at a time when besides the politics of CO2, the culture of political correctness has increasingly gained status of dogma. Who knows maybe some kind of rational realism may enter?

Commentary from a newspaper: Is there a doctor present? (For the stock market.)
A few weeks ago showing the Chinese flag with Corona stars rather than the usual stars. Today Jyllands-Posten had a drawing that concerns the drops on the stock market. In the middle of the trading frenzy depicted, someone shouts: "Is there a doctor present?" At the same time there were spectacular gains in Asia, so it is not everywhere.

 

[Seamus]

We haven't seen any suspicious cases in our clinic (Northeast Spain) yet, but there has been a lot of flu cases and gastroenteritis. Of those cases, all the data points to the seasonal flu and there were no epidemiological contacts related with the coronavirus.

Update from Rhode Island...

There have been a few cases in the state (I think 1 or 2 confirmed cases and less than 100 being monitored) so lots of people are talking about the virus, but I don't know anyone who is sick with it. We had a very mild and easy winter here with hardly any snow, but the cold and flu season was pretty bad and started back in November. I saw many cases of pneumonia, bronchitis, gastroenteritis and a number of my older patients were sick for multiple weeks. One poor patient just told me this morning that she's been diagnosed with pleurisy secondary to pneumonia that she had 2-3 weeks ago Overall I would say that it was a pretty rough cold and flu season without any cases of coronavirus.

Personally I had a very good season, I had a sniffle for 2-3 days after the holidays but didn't miss any work. I've been taking a fat soluble vitamin complex (Vit D, A, E, K) that I really like, plus Iodine, vit C, Apple Cider Vinegar, Sodium Bicarb, probiotics and herbal medicines here and there as needed.

I haven't seen any hysterical buying/hording of things around me. I know some friends who have cancelled or postponed trips and vacations and things like that, but for the most part people seem to be keeping their head and staying realistic about it. Most of my patients, friends and acquaintances around here seem to have adopted a "what's all the fuss about?" attitude.