Failed Trump Assassination Attempt

I would say there is a low probability that Crooks was dragged back down the slope after he was shot: You would expect to see some blood further up if that was the case. I don't see that. It seems like Crooks might not have shot further up the slope because 1; from there, there was enough clearance to see Trumps head and 2; being positioned farther back made it easier to hide.

Also, it is probably most likely that Crooks himself came a bit back downwards the roof slope before he was killed. In one video we saw him propping his upper body up slightly and looking backwards. Shortly after that, he was killed.
 
What follows is a discussion between two typical americans (Tucker Carlson and Patrick Feeney) familiar with shooting all sorts of guns throughout life (starting from childhood) who also are hobby hunters. They are discussing the shot Crooks (by all accounts, so far) was able to shoot considering his gun, the bullets, his sights and the surrounding context. While they are surely not professionals in the sense of a pro sniper, they surely know much more about it from experience than the average citizens of any other country on earth.

Notice that they assume Crooks used iron sights, which, technically speaking, is probably not what happened. Although, if he used a red dot system without optical x magnification, I do think that it is pretty similar to iron sights, just that this version makes aiming much easier compared to iron sights. If Crooks used 4x optical zoom instead (as some suggested is also possible) it makes it quite a bit easier than that:


So it seems, all we can really say is that the first shot Crooks did seems to be very difficult considering the context (even with 4x zoom), because it was able to hit Trumps ear. We don't really know how accurate the following shots were, but it seems like at least the second shot was still very close to the accuracy of the first shot. Which makes it even more astounding IMO. So, we probably have to say that Crooks was able to shoot an almost perfect first shot and possibly a second shot after that. Which seems possible, considering things like luck and skill and such. BUT, right there, we might need to wonder if some kind of "devine intervention" made him and/or the bullet able to do what happened? I mean, what are the chances that Crooks pulled that shot off "all by himself"? Was it just luck and/or skill, or was something "otherworldly" involved? If so, was that otherworldly intervention meant to hit Trumps head? Or, more wildly, meant to only scratch his ear? Or even more wildly, originally meant to hit Trumps head, but then another kind of "divine intervention" kicked in (maybe an STO type?) which caused the "headshot" to become a scratching of the ear instead, by something like causing Trump to turn his head at the right moment and/or causing a wind blowing the bullet slightly off target?

By the way, it now seems to be pretty likely that Crooks encountered that police guy shortly before he shot (and likely pointing his rifle towards him, or at least, starting to attempt that). BUT the time between this and his first shot seems to be short, yes, but quite a bit longer than we assumed previously. It looks like quite a number of seconds passed between the encounter with the police guy and the first shot. Which seems to be a reasonable time for doing so IMO. BUT still, that makes Crooks first shot impressively accurate IMO.

Edit: spelling and wrong words corrected
 
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Another thing that seems to become clearer now:

- Some if not many of the law enforcement guys around the Crooks area assumed that the critical areas in that region (and especially the roofs) were covered/secured by other law enforcements (or more specifically, the secret service). They thought that this is the case because they were either made to believe that and/or told so directly (as one law enforcement guy said specifically).

- Considering that, we can start to understand one reason for why local law enforcement acted so surprised, unprepared and somewhat discombobulated. They were caught off guard and had to improvise quickly.
 
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One possibility we have to take into account is that Crooks was on some kind of drug that made him unusually calm and/or focused considering the circumstances.
He could also have been programmed specifically with an "assassin archetype" which gave him above average abilities as a sniper too. Considering his parents are therapists and Crooks' connection to Blackrock, that feels highly probable. Maybe no other shooters were used because they assumed Crooks would succeed with his installed sniper personality. Also, can't help but think that this situation is possibly the "major miscalculation" the C's mentioned in a previous session. There could have been a number of things that hinged on or were part of Trump dying on 7/13 - Netanyahu speech, Nikki Haley installed, war in Iran, etc. - that you'd think they wouldn't trust a programmed killer on his own to do the deed.
 
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I was just thinking that whoever planned this probably knew beforehand that there would be a lot of normal people and police around who will see and record something in many areas including Crooks area, so they might have decided from the get-go that it would be too risky to place a second real shooter somewhere because of that? Maybe they then just decided to pave the way for Crooks himself, maybe even helping him to some extent on the scene to accomplish what he did? And maybe that is the one thing they are really trying to hide now? That he was helped to be able to do what he did?

Could be. In JFK's time this wouldn't have been a problem, but you're right, in today's world everyone has a smartphone that enables recording.

Yes. And on top of that we are not talking about an usual american crowd of people. We are talking about Trumpers: Probably upwards of 90 percent of the people there were Trumpers I would assume. Meaning, that those kind of people are more likely to think/feel that Trump might be in danger and would react much quicker towards any kind of fishy happenings. For example, by quickly turning attention to strange happenings and watching/filming it. They are primed to expect nefarious happenings and to defend Trump against attacks, even by just witnessing and recording stuff. They also tend to be much more critical and analytical in their thinking and behaviors then an usual american crowd while also being predisposed more towards common sense thinking/behavior.
 
Geez! You were seriously busy! Thanks for all your effort on that. It's funny, I had proposed 3 separate shooters a while back but now that they would all need to be within 6-7 meters of Crooks' position and on a very similar line, where the heck would you put them? Where the heck would you put just one other shooter if there is one?
I forgot to add a caveat. It's only 6-7 meters if a second shooter was using the same type of gun. A second shooter conceivably could have used a different rifle with different ammo to spoof a shot coming from Crooks's location, but that seems pretty far-fetched to me. Plus, it would still have to be within the wider range, i.e. on that line of sight on the building behind him.
So it seems, all we can really say is that the first shot Crooks did seems to be very difficult considering the context (even with 4x zoom), because it was able to hit Trumps ear. We don't really know how accurate the following shots were, but it seems like at least the second shot was still very close to the accuracy of the first shot. Which makes it even more astounding IMO. So, we probably have to say that Crooks was able to shoot an almost perfect first shot and possibly a second shot after that. Which seems possible, considering things like luck and skill and such.
The guy at Paramount Tactical, who was a professional sniper, has a different take on it. First, he says that a pro wouldn't have missed the first shot. But if he got super unlucky and did miss it, he would have corrected and got the second shot with no need for a third. Second, he thinks the ear shot was just luck, not skill. He admits it's speculation, but he thinks Crooks was probably aiming for Trump's chest, which is where most snipers would aim. Most rifle rounds will go through a bulletproof vest. And most novice shooters' training goes out the window in "live" environment. When aiming at a target 150 yards away they will revert to "pointing and shooting", resulting in shots going high 7-12 inches, not accounting for bullet rise at that distance. If this was the case, not only was he a foot high, but about 4 inches to the left. Then he didn't correct his second or third shots, with the second going even further to the left, and presumably the third too.
 
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Someone on X just made a stabilized and zoomed in version of that:


You can see someone, maybe Crooks, getting up on the roof with a backpack and running across. That happen ca at 18:08:30, ca 3min before the first shot.

Gone. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. The Gateway Pundit has an article about it with one screenshot, and reposted on Survive the News. Can't find anyone else reporting on it (yet?). The original video still exists but this feels like censorship. Thanks Elon for X transparency?

You can see the guy climbing onto the hallway roof.

I didn't write this correctly. It should say, "You can see a guy drop down onto the hallway roof."

Also, as a thought, I looked around the AGR building from the front just to see if anything stood out, and I noticed this:

AGR Front.jpg

There are actually three windows on the second floor of AGR#9-1 (my previous map says this building is #9-2 because it says so on two separate doors of the building (one of which is shown on the front, the other on the opposite side), but it also says #9-1 on the main door shown on the left. (#9-1 = main floor, #9-2 = second floor?). Looking into the windows on the main floor, I can see those movable, cloth partitions that create cubicles in open plan office space. At least part of this building is offices. Judging by the windows on the ground floor, the ones on second floor should also open because they look to be of the same manufacture. If you know the layout of the roof, these windows provide an interesting access point.

AGR Top- Three Windows.jpg

It's a long shot but is there any video of these windows?
 
I'm listening to the interview Elon Musk did with Donald Trump yesterday (today?) and from the beginning they talk about the assassination attempt, and about 18 minutes 15 seconds in Trump says the following

You know, the incredible thing though, when you talk about the odds, you had to be exactly at that angle, but the incredible thing is that the chart, I use it less than 20% of the time, it was just a moment, it's always on my left, never on my right, and always at the end of the speech. So here we have it, it's on the right, not on the left, it's at the beginning, not the end, and even the people who put it up there were unprepared, and they did a great job, they got it up immediately fortunately. But I looked to the right and the bullet came whizzing by, hitting my ear. [inaudible] When you think of the odds of that, normally I wouldn't use it. Normally I wouldn't have the thing... [...] It's very much and act of god, it's a miracle that it happened, and I'm honored by it, I'm honored by it.

source
 
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The guy at Paramount Tactical, who was a professional sniper, has a different take on it. First, he says that a pro wouldn't have missed the first shot. But if he got super unlucky and did miss it, he would have corrected and got the second shot with no need for a third. Second, he thinks the ear shot was just luck, not skill. He admits it's speculation, but he thinks Crooks was probably aiming for Trump's chest, which is where most snipers would aim. Most rifle rounds will go through a bulletproof vest. And most novice shooters' training goes out the window in "live" environment. When aiming at a target 150 yards away they will revert to "pointing and shooting", resulting in shots going high 7-12 inches, not accounting for bullet rise at that distance. If this was the case, not only was he a foot high, but about 4 inches to the left. Then he didn't correct his second or third shots, with the second going even further to the left, and presumably the third too.

That's an interesting idea. Everyone is assuming that Crooks aimed for the head, but was it so? I guess no one can really know (except maybe his handlers). It is also interesting that he claims that most professional snipers would aim for the chest. Somehow I assumed they would rather aim for the head. But I guess it depends on the equipment used, the distance and the surrounding context if a pro sniper does the more risky shot toward the head. Aiming for the chest seems much safer/easier if you want to hit, no matter which distance, so, it kinda makes sense what that guy is saying. But in the end, we really don't know what Crooks aimed for.
 
If it was Crooks that shot that bullet that scratched Trumps ear (which looks like it IMO), from what I've seen, I think there is a fair chance that Crooks was also able to see Trumps chest.

Trump was standing sideways to Crooks. He would have seen his right shoulder and the side of his head. So Crooks was betting that Trump would turn to present his chest... 🤔 hence the screen being on Trump's right... otherwise he would have presented his back to Crooks by turning left where the screen apparently had always been set up in the past. But Trump never fully turned. He never gave Crooks the target he was looking for. But to Crooks, it appeared as if he was turning, and he was running out of time, and so took a shot anyway. Had Trump fully turned, he would have been standing straighter and a bit more away from the pulpit lectern. (ha ha, my religious upbringing) Crooks would have hit his mark, I think, but it all depended on Trump turning? Is that what he usually did at his speeches? Was Trump's movement profiled and Crooks programmed to shoot according to that profile?
 
Trump was standing sideways to Crooks. He would have seen his right shoulder and the side of his head. So Crooks was betting that Trump would turn to present his chest... 🤔 hence the screen being on Trump's right... otherwise he would have presented his back to Crooks by turning left where the screen apparently had always been set up in the past. But Trump never fully turned. He never gave Crooks the target he was looking for. But to Crooks, it appeared as if he was turning, and he was running out of time, and so took a shot anyway. Had Trump fully turned, he would have been standing straighter and a bit more away from the pulpit lectern. (ha ha, my religious upbringing) Crooks would have hit his mark, I think, but it all depended on Trump turning? Is that what he usually did at his speeches? Was Trump's movement profiled and Crooks programmed to shoot according to that profile?

Good point! That point speaks more in favor of the idea that Crooks indeed aimed at Trumps head IMO. He saw Trump standing sideways, so the head might have been his safest aim. A side profile of a chest is a lot less then from the front or behind. On top of that, Trumps arms could make a shot to the chest even less secure (in terms of deadly damage).
 
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