A (Greek) Fork In The Road
Although the debt crisis was long an issue since before Balkan Stream was even conceptualized, it’s now become intimately intertwined in the New Cold War energy drama unfolding in the Balkans. The Troika wants to force Tsipras to capitulate to an unpopular debt deal that would surely lead to the rapid end of his premiership. Right now, the main factor tying Balkan Stream to Greece is the Tsipras government, and it’s in Russia and the multipolar world’s best interests to see him remain in power until the pipeline can physically be constructed. Any sudden or unexpected change of leadership in Greece could easily endanger the political viability of Balkan Stream and force Russia into relying on Eastring, and it’s for these reasons why the Troika wants to force Tsipras into an inextricable dilemma.
If he accepts the current debt conditions, then he’ll lose the support of his base and likely usher in early elections or fall victim to a revolt from within his own party. On the other hand, if he rejects the proposal and allows Greece to default, then the resultant economic catastrophe could kill all grassroots support for him and prematurely end his political career. That’s why the decision to hold a national referendum on the debt deal was such a genius move, because it ensures that Tsipras has a chance of surviving the forthcoming political-economic firestorm over its democratically obtained results (which look to foretell a debt rejection and imminent default ). With the people on his side (no matter how narrowly), Tsipras could continue presiding over Greece as it crawls into an uncertain and troubling forthcoming period. Additionally, his continued stewardship of the country and the personal chemistry that he has with the BRICS leaders ( especially Vladimir Putin ) could lead to them extending some form of economic assistance (probably through the $100 billion BRICS New Development Bank or equally large currency reserve pool ) to Greece after their upcoming summit in Ufa in early July, provided that he can hang on to leadership until then.
Thus, the future of Balkan energy geopolitics currently comes down to whatever happens in Greece in the near future. While it’s possible that a Greek Prime Minister other than Tsipras could continue moving forward with Balkan Stream, the likelihood is significantly less than if Tsipras stayed put in office. Creating the conditions for his removal is the indirect way in which the US and EU prefer to influence the course of Russia’s future energy shipments through the Balkans, hence why such pressure is being applied on Tsipras at this moment. His referendum proposal clearly took them all by surprise, since real democracy is practically unheard of in Europe nowadays, and nobody expected him to directly refer to his constituents prior to making one of the country’s most pivotal decisions in decades. Through these means, he can escape the Catch-22 trap that the Troika set for him, and in doing so, also save the future of Balkan Stream.
Concluding Thoughts
There’s more to the Eastring pipeline proposal than initially meets the eye, hence the need to unravel the strategic motivations behind in it in order to better comprehend its asymmetrical impact. It’s clear that the US and EU want to neutralize the geopolitical applicability that Balkan Stream would have in spreading multipolarity throughout the region, which explains their tandem approach in trying to stop it. The US is stoking the flames of violent Albanian nationalism in Macedonia in order to obstruct Balkan Stream’s intended path, while the EU is handily proposing an alternative route through the unipolar-controlled Eastern Balkans as a predetermined ‘way out’ for Russia. Both Euro-Atlantic forces are conspiring together in indirectly trying to topple the Greek government through an engineered election or internal coup in order to remove Tsipras from office, knowing that this singular move would deal the greatest and most immediate blow to Balkan Stream. While it’s not clear what will eventually happen with Tsipras or Russia’s pipeline plans in general, it’s irrefutable that the Balkans have become one of the main and repeated flashpoints for the New Cold War, and the competition between the unipolar and multipolar worlds in this geostrategic theater is only just beginning to play out.
- an example on RT today, disproving statements from the BBC concerning the ECB cutting off of the Emergency liquidity assistance to Greek banks. Turns out this was not happening, and ECB is continuing the ELA :
