I agree that his article on the geopolitics of the Middle East is certainly interesting. However, I have to say can't agree with some aspects of his geopolitical assessment. For example:
1. He left Egypt out of his assessment of the main players in the Middle East. Egypt has one of the largest and best equipped armed forces in the Middle East and is currently involved with aid relief to Gaza. It is also on very friendly terms with Russia, a friendship that dates all the way back to the 1950's and President Nasser.
2. Where he says "This is why they funded and supplied the Sunni uprising against the Alawite regime in Syria as well as ISIS everywhere else", he seems to be unaware that ISIS was really a creation of western intelligence services including Mossad, the CIA and MI6. Yes, Turkey may have been involved too, but they were not the main instigators of ISIS.
3. Russia's debacle in Ukraine has weakened her military and reduced an already dwindling pool of young men of military age. Should their manpower losses continue at their current rate, Russia's ability to extend its reach into the Middle East will disappear. However, even if Russia had not invaded Ukraine, here military power would still not be strong enough to overcome Turkey's ability to stop a Russian invasion of the Middle East.
Where is he getting his information from? Russia's manpower losses are no where near as bad those of the Ukraine, a country with a much smaller population. Moreover, many of the combat troops used by the Russians in the Ukraine are actually militia from the Donbas and Lugansk. Turkey's armed forces do not even come close to the military capabilities the Russian armed forces possess. For example, they have no tactical nuclear battlefield weapons to deploy. Further, Russia does not need to invade the Middle East, they are already there in Syria.
4. For Russia, this has been a big opportunity to make big gains in Syria and Africa with only a small investment of military power. In the process, they strengthened their relationship with Iran as they worked together to destroy Sunni power centers.
I was not aware that Russia was pro-Shiite and anti-Sunni and helping Iran to destroy Sunni power centres, as he seems to claim. My understanding is that Russia currently maintains good relations with Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, all predominantly Sunni Moslem countries. Indeed, it was Russian intelligence that tipped off President Erdogan to a CIA sponsored coup only a few years ago. Turkey has also played a key part recently in hosting peace talks between Russia and the Ukraine. Moreover, Turkey appears to be lining up on the side of those Islamic countries (including Iran) that are opposed to Israel's forthcoming onslaught on Gaza. As to making gains in Africa, the Russian sponsored Wagner Group seems to have played a major part in preventing the French from intervening in Niger's recent coup. It is unlikely they would not have had the Kremlin's approval for this.
5. Turkey has a tight control of Russia's access to the Mediterranean Sea via the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. She also controls major land routes from the North with her alliance with Azerbaijan. So, as long as Turkey continues to prosper and maintain a large standing army, Iran and Russia are blocked from any meaningful military operations in Syria, Lebanon and Israel.
He seems to overlook that you can also gain access to the Mediterranean Sea via the Straits of Gibraltar, which the Russian Navy currently uses in accordance with the international law of the sea. There is also the Suez Canal too, which is controlled by Egypt, an ally of Russia. He also seems to overlook that Iran has armed and supplied tens of thousands of Hezbollah militants in Lebanon and Syria, which are effectively proxy Iranian armies already in the field.
It strikes me that this man's thinking is probably still stuck back in the good old days when the US Empire and its allies were clearly the "good guys" (the white hats*) and the Russians and its allies were the "bad guys" (the black hats). Unfortunately, times have changed.
*For those not aware, if you grew up on American cowboy films, as I did in the 1960's, the convention was that the good guys wore the white hats whilst the baddies wore black hats.
