The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

On the radio news here in Germany one "expert" tried to spin it like this: "Well, warmer temperatures can also mean more snow, because if it's too cold, there is no snow!" or something like that. He then went on to say "but we're expecting warmer temperatures so there will be less snow where we now have much snow". Makes sense?

The other day, the Adapt 2030 guy mentioned that some global warmist was trying to explain snow away by relabeling it as "white rain"! :lol:
 
This is from November, but a simple search did not reveal it has been mentioned in this thread:
and https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL079773
The middle to late Holocene (8,200 years ago to present) in the Arctic is characterized by cooling temperatures and the regrowth and advance of glaciers. Whether this Neoglaciation was a threshold response to linear cooling, or was driven by a regional or Arctic‐wide acceleration of cooling, is unknown. Here we examine the largest‐yet‐compiled multiproxy database of Arctic Holocene temperature change, along with model simulations, to investigate regional and Arctic‐wide increases in cooling rate, the synchronicity of Neoglacial onset, and the observed and simulated rates of temperature change. We find little support for an Arctic‐wide onset of Neoglacial cooling but do find intervals when regions experienced rapid increases in long‐term cooling rate, both in the observations and in climate model simulations. In the model experiments, Neoglacial cooling is associated with indirectly forced millennial‐scale variability in meridional heat transport superposed on the long‐term decline of summer insolation.
The above was the academic version and for the more easy:
Plain Language Summary
Arctic summer temperatures have decreased for the past 8,000 years, before rapidly warming over the past century. As temperatures cooled, glaciers that had melted began to regrow throughout the Arctic, a phenomenon and a time interval known as Neoglaciation. This study seeks to understand the nature of this cooling and whether or not this indicates a tipping point in the climate system. Specifically, we use a large database of records from ice cores, lakes, ocean sediment, and more paleoclimate archives to detect patterns of cooling. We investigate these patterns, and climate model simulations, to determine what parts of the Arctic experienced Neoglaciation at the same time, how rapidly it cooled, and what climate models indicate about the causes of cooling. We find that the Arctic did not cool simultaneously, but different regions cooled at different times and that the climate models perform well when simulating both the timing and amount of Arctic cooling.
 
I've been reading 'A cold Welcome: The Little Ice Age and Europe's Encounter with North America', by Sam White, and I came across this:

[...] After large tropical volcanic eruptions, the earth cools differently at different latitudes, and that uneven cooling causes shifts in global atmospheric circulation. Often these shifts include a stronger NAO [North Atlantic Oscillation], as well as stronger westerly and northwesterly winds in Europe that often come south of their usual range. These conditions can strengthen the North Atlantic Current and temporarily thin out Arctic sea ice in otherwise cold years. That was the pattern following the Tambora eruption and the "year without a summer" in 1816. Northwesterly winds from the Atlantic brought months of incessant cool rainy weather to western and central Europe, further chilled by volcanic aerosols that dimmed the sun. The poor in Switzerland and southern Germany froze and starved during the summer, but the following winter was actually milder than usual in most of Europe. At the same time, ships in the Arctic found the sea free of ice much farther north than anyone could remember.

This is not unlike the pattern we see today. The global-warmists insist that GW is thinning the ice in the Arctic, while ignoring the fact that the ice in the Antarctic is growing, plus all the other weather anomalies that do not match GW theory. On top of that, we have seen a lot of volcanic activity lately. If this is a known pattern - volcanic activity, stronger NAO, uneven cooling at different latitudes, thinning of ice in the Arctic but freezing elsewhere - why is not anyone talking about it now?
 
I've been reading 'A cold Welcome: The Little Ice Age and Europe's Encounter with North America', by Sam White, and I came across this:

[...] After large tropical volcanic eruptions, the earth cools differently at different latitudes, and that uneven cooling causes shifts in global atmospheric circulation. Often these shifts include a stronger NAO [North Atlantic Oscillation], as well as stronger westerly and northwesterly winds in Europe that often come south of their usual range. These conditions can strengthen the North Atlantic Current and temporarily thin out Arctic sea ice in otherwise cold years. That was the pattern following the Tambora eruption and the "year without a summer" in 1816. Northwesterly winds from the Atlantic brought months of incessant cool rainy weather to western and central Europe, further chilled by volcanic aerosols that dimmed the sun. The poor in Switzerland and southern Germany froze and starved during the summer, but the following winter was actually milder than usual in most of Europe. At the same time, ships in the Arctic found the sea free of ice much farther north than anyone could remember.

This is not unlike the pattern we see today. The global-warmists insist that GW is thinning the ice in the Arctic, while ignoring the fact that the ice in the Antarctic is growing, plus all the other weather anomalies that do not match GW theory. On top of that, we have seen a lot of volcanic activity lately. If this is a known pattern - volcanic activity, stronger NAO, uneven cooling at different latitudes, thinning of ice in the Arctic but freezing elsewhere - why is not anyone talking about it now?

What becomes very clear in historic works like the one mentioned above from Sam White in combination of reading how the sciences around climate work and reading catastrophism works, is that, climate in itself is a very, very complex system that involves so many factors (many of which we probably are not even aware of yet) that it is foolish to believe that if there is a warming or cooling here or there that you can say with certainty what will happen or what it signifies in general.

What also becomes clear is that even during the "small ice age", climate was so complex and variable that you could have very cold and snowy periods while at the same time in another area in can be very hot and dry. You can also have a mix of everything in between depending on many factors. For example, the winters could last much longer while the summers are still hot or even hotter than usual. So if we are talking about a general overall trend towards cooler temperatures (which seems were we are headed) that doesn't necessarily mean that in all places at all times it will have the same effect.

I mean climate in itself is so complex that you can have a wide range of minimum and maximum temperatures even within a very small local area of the globe. For example, there are areas here in germany where the temperatures are always much, much colder or warmer do to the local conditions like mountains, valleys, forests and lakes (and many more variables) surrounding the area, so much so that it can range about 20 degrees Celsius within that small area even though at the same latitude and altitude in the same area near by it is much warmer or colder at the same time.

See here for example:

Minus 27,2 Grad! Das ist der kälteste Ort in Deutschland
Funtensee – Wikipedia
Kaltennordheim – Wikipedia

Some of those areas that are much colder here in germany, even are named because of those cold conditions. The last one above is a village called "Kaltennordheim" ["Coldnorthhome"].

The same holds true for warm areas. When you then also take into consideration changing patterns, like the one described above by White and even cosmic induced changes from comets, or earth shifting stuff, it gets even more complicated. One thing is for sure though, as it stands now, some general areas, like north america will most likely have a much harder time during a general cooling trend than others, judging on history and the conditions there, compared to Europe for example.

But still, even in north america there might be places were it is much better than in others. Generally though, if something like a little ice age is coming, north america will have a very hard time, in general. You need to read the book to understand just how different things were even back in the 1500 hundreds in the US and Canada. And that is just a small ice age, which is nothing compared to a real ice age. It doesn't even really register on the scale when you compare it with the conditions during the last ice age that ended approx 11.000 - 12.000 years ago. The real ice age was of many orders of magnitudes colder in general than what people experienced during the little ice age.

And by the way, there were also quite a number of periods in the past that were much warmer than today, where you certainly can't blame that on humans. There were also periods where there was up to 12 times (more or less) more CO2 in the atmosphere and you can certainly not blame that on humans either. The "human caused global warming, do to CO2" or anything else for that matter, is just such a big load of BS that it is hard to believe that anyone could fall for it.

So whenever globalwarmists point out that it is so hot here or there and want us to believe that this is proof of anything, than this is just utter bullocks. The most reliable and tested long term data we have, that matches reality for general global patterns, definitively points to the probable likelihood of a lowering of temperatures overall in the near future. This is in stark contrast with the very bad "science" the globalwarmists use to back up their claims, which doesn't match reality at all.
 
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And in all the above we are not even taking into account very abrupt and catastrophic global floods, changing of temperatures, changes of landscapes etc, rising and falling of big chunks of earth, that by now certainly happened more than once even within the accepted timeline of humans and civilization. And we are talking about events that could have changed everything in timescales that probably have gone down up to hours or days. Many of those happenings are now pretty much proven to have been triggered by comet insults to earth in one way or the other. Not even taking the sun and other factors into account here.
 
I recently noticed that even in wintertime now, the day to day prognosis of temperatures on mainstream weather websites like weather.com or wetter.de didn't seem to match reality at all. I looked a week or so ago, ahead in the near future on those websites, for what they were predicting temperature wise in my area and they predicted a span of around -1 to +3 or +5 degrees Celsius (15 day forecast), while in reality, just a couple of days ago, it was - 8 degrees (early in the morning around 05:00) almost all the way from where I live to where I work about 70 km away, one hour later. Quite handy to have a car thermometer! And the last two or three days it was still minus 4 degrees or so till about 10:00 in the morning. Then I looked again yesterday to the same long term prognosis (15 days ahead) on those websites and it changed completely and that downward, now almost all the time staying below freezing.

I do wonder if the same pattern as in the summer emerges here, where it seems that they state and predict higher temperatures than you can actually measure outside. Also, in the last week, reports in germany went around that the climate scientist almost never before had such an abundance of different matching climate models for the near future here in germany about the climate, which all point to at least 4 weeks of continues freezing in germany. So far, that seems to be the case.
 
Seeing some significant swings (regarding winds, temps, snow totals. and UV light intensification), as noted, that the Jet Stream is broken.




From one of the highest peeks on the Pyrenees Mountain chains! 23 hrs ago


❄️🙌 showers and refreshments 👉 0/-1 around 1000 m and one waits again about 20cm in altitude in north slopes. 🚗👉 many passes remain closed (Aspin, Pourtalet, Puymorens....), as well as access Andorra... possible reopening by 12 noon. #PyreneesOrientales #pyrenees #andorra 11:40 PM - 24 Jan 2019
 
Sometimes ago I decided to take my calculator and see if I could calculate the mean temperature of Earth using the popular black body method using approximations. Here my calculation sheet with somes comments if anybody is interested:

Solar Irrandiance: 1360.8 W/m²

Earth Parameters:

Mean radius: 6.371E6 meters

Surface: 510.072E12 m²

Area of an equivalent disk exposed to the Sun: 127.52E12 m²

Bond albedo: 0.306

Emissivity: Visible: 1 - 0.306 = 0.694
LWIR (Far IR): 0.883

Total received power: 1360.8 W/m² * 0.694 * 127.52E12 m² = 120.43E15 W

Mean power over all surface: 236.1 W/m²

Black body temperature: ⁴√(236.1 / 56.705E-9) = 254 K (-19.13°C)

Grey body temperature: 254 K / 0.883 = 287.7 K (14.51°C)


Notes:
=====

0 Kelvin = -273.15°C

emissivity = absorptivity

reflectivity (albedo) = 1 - emissivity


Effect of 1% Solar Irrandiance reduction
========================================

Black body temperature: ⁴√(233.74 / 56.705E-9) = 253.38 K (-19.767°C)

Grey body temperature: 253.38 K / 0.883 = 286.95 K (13.804°C)


Effect of 10% Solar Irrandiance reduction
=========================================

Black body temperature: ⁴√(212.49 / 56.705E-9) = 247.42 K (-25.73°C)

Grey body temperature: 247.42 K / 0.883 = 280.2 K (7.05°C)


Conclusions:
===========

Small changes in Earth albedo or Sun irradiance produce non negligible change in Earth temperature.

Increase of Earth temperature increase H2O evaporation, make more clouds thus increase Earth albedo.

Water cycle provide a negative feedback to resist temperature increase.

Temperature decrease allow for ice to begin to pile up, increase albedo thus allowing for more temperature decrease, then we are out of the interglacial. (At some point ice albedo begin to dominate cloud albedo reduction)
 
Think this is now. On the Canadian news wire (CBC etc.) it was all about Climate Change causing it. However they use those words to infer their old words that AGW is causing it, which everyone knows, right; no need to mention it. People are left to run those mental climate gymnastics through their minds as their bodies freeze, and they are never told to look way way up at our Sol for answers.

I'm hearing this has dipped well south on the East coast, and that is not going to be easy as things freeze up even tighter. Take good care people.

1548745967125.png
 
The Adapt 2030 channel has a couple of videos predicting coldest temperatures in North America and Europe in a generation for this week. Sounds like serious stuff - up to -70 F (around -55 C) winds in some places - pretty brutal! The cold is supposed to dip down all the way to the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico, which is a tropical paradise, and he's expecting iguanas to be falling off trees. Well, I did see a headline in Spanish about the area reaching 6 C, which for the zone is extremely cold. It reminds me of some reports on the 'A Cold Welcome' book (mentioned above in the thread) of Florida being 'too cold' for Spanish settlers! (Not all the time, though, as Pashalis mentioned above, one characteristic of the Little Ice Age, as we learn from the book, was the crazy swings in climate and temperature - kind of like today!)

Here's the video:

 
75 below zero? Polar vortex brings life-threatening chill, staggeringly low AccuWeather RealFeel Temperatures

Long-standing records are poised to fall as the polar vortex sends extremely cold air into the north-central, midwestern and northeastern United States.

States of emergency have been issued in Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan due to the extreme cold with many schools and businesses closing until the frigid air loosens its grip on the region later this week.

Minneapolis could break low temperature records originally set back in the 1800s, and Chicago could challenge it's all-time record low of minus 27 F, set on Jan. 20, 1985.
...
Grand Forks, North Dakota, observed an AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperature of minus 75 degrees F on Tuesday morning as winds whipped around at over 30 mph.
 
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