The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

[Windmill knight]

I've been reading 'A cold Welcome: The Little Ice Age and Europe's Encounter with North America', by Sam White, and I came across this:

[...] After large tropical volcanic eruptions, the earth cools differently at different latitudes, and that uneven cooling causes shifts in global atmospheric circulation. Often these shifts include a stronger NAO [North Atlantic Oscillation], as well as stronger westerly and northwesterly winds in Europe that often come south of their usual range. These conditions can strengthen the North Atlantic Current and temporarily thin out Arctic sea ice in otherwise cold years. That was the pattern following the Tambora eruption and the "year without a summer" in 1816. Northwesterly winds from the Atlantic brought months of incessant cool rainy weather to western and central Europe, further chilled by volcanic aerosols that dimmed the sun. The poor in Switzerland and southern Germany froze and starved during the summer, but the following winter was actually milder than usual in most of Europe. At the same time, ships in the Arctic found the sea free of ice much farther north than anyone could remember.

This is not unlike the pattern we see today. The global-warmists insist that GW is thinning the ice in the Arctic, while ignoring the fact that the ice in the Antarctic is growing, plus all the other weather anomalies that do not match GW theory. On top of that, we have seen a lot of volcanic activity lately. If this is a known pattern - volcanic activity, stronger NAO, uneven cooling at different latitudes, thinning of ice in the Arctic but freezing elsewhere - why is not anyone talking about it now?

 

[Cosmos]

I've been reading 'A cold Welcome: The Little Ice Age and Europe's Encounter with North America', by Sam White, and I came across this:

[...] After large tropical volcanic eruptions, the earth cools differently at different latitudes, and that uneven cooling causes shifts in global atmospheric circulation. Often these shifts include a stronger NAO [North Atlantic Oscillation], as well as stronger westerly and northwesterly winds in Europe that often come south of their usual range. These conditions can strengthen the North Atlantic Current and temporarily thin out Arctic sea ice in otherwise cold years. That was the pattern following the Tambora eruption and the "year without a summer" in 1816. Northwesterly winds from the Atlantic brought months of incessant cool rainy weather to western and central Europe, further chilled by volcanic aerosols that dimmed the sun. The poor in Switzerland and southern Germany froze and starved during the summer, but the following winter was actually milder than usual in most of Europe. At the same time, ships in the Arctic found the sea free of ice much farther north than anyone could remember.

This is not unlike the pattern we see today. The global-warmists insist that GW is thinning the ice in the Arctic, while ignoring the fact that the ice in the Antarctic is growing, plus all the other weather anomalies that do not match GW theory. On top of that, we have seen a lot of volcanic activity lately. If this is a known pattern - volcanic activity, stronger NAO, uneven cooling at different latitudes, thinning of ice in the Arctic but freezing elsewhere - why is not anyone talking about it now?

What becomes very clear in historic works like the one mentioned above from Sam White in combination of reading how the sciences around climate work and reading catastrophism works, is that, climate in itself is a very, very complex system that involves so many factors (many of which we probably are not even aware of yet) that it is foolish to believe that if there is a warming or cooling here or there that you can say with certainty what will happen or what it signifies in general.

What also becomes clear is that even during the "small ice age", climate was so complex and variable that you could have very cold and snowy periods while at the same time in another area in can be very hot and dry. You can also have a mix of everything in between depending on many factors. For example, the winters could last much longer while the summers are still hot or even hotter than usual. So if we are talking about a general overall trend towards cooler temperatures (which seems were we are headed) that doesn't necessarily mean that in all places at all times it will have the same effect.

I mean climate in itself is so complex that you can have a wide range of minimum and maximum temperatures even within a very small local area of the globe. For example, there are areas here in germany where the temperatures are always much, much colder or warmer do to the local conditions like mountains, valleys, forests and lakes (and many more variables) surrounding the area, so much so that it can range about 20 degrees Celsius within that small area even though at the same latitude and altitude in the same area near by it is much warmer or colder at the same time.

See here for example:

Minus 27,2 Grad! Das ist der kälteste Ort in Deutschland
Funtensee – Wikipedia
Kaltennordheim – Wikipedia

Some of those areas that are much colder here in germany, even are named because of those cold conditions. The last one above is a village called "Kaltennordheim" ["Coldnorthhome"].

The same holds true for warm areas. When you then also take into consideration changing patterns, like the one described above by White and even cosmic induced changes from comets, or earth shifting stuff, it gets even more complicated. One thing is for sure though, as it stands now, some general areas, like north america will most likely have a much harder time during a general cooling trend than others, judging on history and the conditions there, compared to Europe for example.

But still, even in north america there might be places were it is much better than in others. Generally though, if something like a little ice age is coming, north america will have a very hard time, in general. You need to read the book to understand just how different things were even back in the 1500 hundreds in the US and Canada. And that is just a small ice age, which is nothing compared to a real ice age. It doesn't even really register on the scale when you compare it with the conditions during the last ice age that ended approx 11.000 - 12.000 years ago. The real ice age was of many orders of magnitudes colder in general than what people experienced during the little ice age.

And by the way, there were also quite a number of periods in the past that were much warmer than today, where you certainly can't blame that on humans. There were also periods where there was up to 12 times (more or less) more CO2 in the atmosphere and you can certainly not blame that on humans either. The "human caused global warming, do to CO2" or anything else for that matter, is just such a big load of BS that it is hard to believe that anyone could fall for it.

So whenever globalwarmists point out that it is so hot here or there and want us to believe that this is proof of anything, than this is just utter bullocks. The most reliable and tested long term data we have, that matches reality for general global patterns, definitively points to the probable likelihood of a lowering of temperatures overall in the near future. This is in stark contrast with the very bad "science" the globalwarmists use to back up their claims, which doesn't match reality at all.

 

[Cosmos]

And in all the above we are not even taking into account very abrupt and catastrophic global floods, changing of temperatures, changes of landscapes etc, rising and falling of big chunks of earth, that by now certainly happened more than once even within the accepted timeline of humans and civilization. And we are talking about events that could have changed everything in timescales that probably have gone down up to hours or days. Many of those happenings are now pretty much proven to have been triggered by comet insults to earth in one way or the other. Not even taking the sun and other factors into account here.

 

[Cosmos]

I recently noticed that even in wintertime now, the day to day prognosis of temperatures on mainstream weather websites like weather.com or wetter.de didn't seem to match reality at all. I looked a week or so ago, ahead in the near future on those websites, for what they were predicting temperature wise in my area and they predicted a span of around -1 to +3 or +5 degrees Celsius (15 day forecast), while in reality, just a couple of days ago, it was - 8 degrees (early in the morning around 05:00) almost all the way from where I live to where I work about 70 km away, one hour later. Quite handy to have a car thermometer! And the last two or three days it was still minus 4 degrees or so till about 10:00 in the morning. Then I looked again yesterday to the same long term prognosis (15 days ahead) on those websites and it changed completely and that downward, now almost all the time staying below freezing.

I do wonder if the same pattern as in the summer emerges here, where it seems that they state and predict higher temperatures than you can actually measure outside. Also, in the last week, reports in germany went around that the climate scientist almost never before had such an abundance of different matching climate models for the near future here in germany about the climate, which all point to at least 4 weeks of continues freezing in germany. So far, that seems to be the case.

 

[Laura]

I've noticed that too. I've noticed that they underestimate, overestimate, or simply are clueless about what is going to happen. I actually think they are lying a lot of the time.

 

[Ca.]

Seeing some significant swings (regarding winds, temps, snow totals. and UV light intensification), as noted, that the Jet Stream is broken.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1088685483977293824

https://twitter.com/x/status/1069908718702211078

https://twitter.com/x/status/1088312636943593473

From one of the highest peeks on the Pyrenees Mountain chains! 23 hrs ago


showers and refreshments 0/-1 around 1000 m and one waits again about 20cm in altitude in north slopes. many passes remain closed (Aspin, Pourtalet, Puymorens....), as well as access Andorra... possible reopening by 12 noon. #PyreneesOrientales #pyrenees #andorra 11:40 PM - 24 Jan 2019

 

[Astrocyte]

Sometimes ago I decided to take my calculator and see if I could calculate the mean temperature of Earth using the popular black body method using approximations. Here my calculation sheet with somes comments if anybody is interested:

Solar Irrandiance: 1360.8 W/m²

Earth Parameters:

Mean radius: 6.371E6 meters

Surface: 510.072E12 m²

Area of an equivalent disk exposed to the Sun: 127.52E12 m²

Bond albedo: 0.306

Emissivity: Visible: 1 - 0.306 = 0.694
LWIR (Far IR): 0.883

Total received power: 1360.8 W/m² * 0.694 * 127.52E12 m² = 120.43E15 W

Mean power over all surface: 236.1 W/m²

Black body temperature: ⁴√(236.1 / 56.705E-9) = 254 K (-19.13°C)

Grey body temperature: 254 K / 0.883 = 287.7 K (14.51°C)


Notes:
=====

0 Kelvin = -273.15°C

emissivity = absorptivity

reflectivity (albedo) = 1 - emissivity


Effect of 1% Solar Irrandiance reduction
========================================

Black body temperature: ⁴√(233.74 / 56.705E-9) = 253.38 K (-19.767°C)

Grey body temperature: 253.38 K / 0.883 = 286.95 K (13.804°C)


Effect of 10% Solar Irrandiance reduction
=========================================

Black body temperature: ⁴√(212.49 / 56.705E-9) = 247.42 K (-25.73°C)

Grey body temperature: 247.42 K / 0.883 = 280.2 K (7.05°C)


Conclusions:
===========

Small changes in Earth albedo or Sun irradiance produce non negligible change in Earth temperature.

Increase of Earth temperature increase H2O evaporation, make more clouds thus increase Earth albedo.

Water cycle provide a negative feedback to resist temperature increase.

Temperature decrease allow for ice to begin to pile up, increase albedo thus allowing for more temperature decrease, then we are out of the interglacial. (At some point ice albedo begin to dominate cloud albedo reduction)

 

[Voyageur]

Think this is now. On the Canadian news wire (CBC etc.) it was all about Climate Change causing it. However they use those words to infer their old words that AGW is causing it, which everyone knows, right; no need to mention it. People are left to run those mental climate gymnastics through their minds as their bodies freeze, and they are never told to look way way up at our Sol for answers.

I'm hearing this has dipped well south on the East coast, and that is not going to be easy as things freeze up even tighter. Take good care people.

 

[Windmill knight]

The Adapt 2030 channel has a couple of videos predicting coldest temperatures in North America and Europe in a generation for this week. Sounds like serious stuff - up to -70 F (around -55 C) winds in some places - pretty brutal! The cold is supposed to dip down all the way to the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico, which is a tropical paradise, and he's expecting iguanas to be falling off trees. Well, I did see a headline in Spanish about the area reaching 6 C, which for the zone is extremely cold. It reminds me of some reports on the 'A Cold Welcome' book (mentioned above in the thread) of Florida being 'too cold' for Spanish settlers! (Not all the time, though, as Pashalis mentioned above, one characteristic of the Little Ice Age, as we learn from the book, was the crazy swings in climate and temperature - kind of like today!)

Here's the video:

 

[seek10]

75 below zero? Polar vortex brings life-threatening chill, staggeringly low AccuWeather RealFeel Temperatures

Long-standing records are poised to fall as the polar vortex sends extremely cold air into the north-central, midwestern and northeastern United States.

States of emergency have been issued in Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan due to the extreme cold with many schools and businesses closing until the frigid air loosens its grip on the region later this week.

Minneapolis could break low temperature records originally set back in the 1800s, and Chicago could challenge it's all-time record low of minus 27 F, set on Jan. 20, 1985.
...
Grand Forks, North Dakota, observed an AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperature of minus 75 degrees F on Tuesday morning as winds whipped around at over 30 mph.

 

[Ocean]

Eight dead as polar vortex clenches US

At least eight people have died in the deep freeze, which has paralysed cities and US transportation.

www.bbc.com

Polar vortex claims eight lives as US cold snap continues

At least eight people have died in the US Midwest as the region shivers in the grip of its worst cold snap in decades.

An Iowa student found dead outside a college building is among victims of the deadly freeze.

Hospitals have been treating patients reporting frostbite as life across a swathe of the nation grinds to a halt.

The iciest blasts may still come on Thursday. Ninety million people - a third of the US - have seen temperatures of -17C (0F) or below.

Some 250 million Americans overall have experienced the "polar vortex" conditions, but southern states such as Florida have escaped the brutal chill.

How did the fatalities occur?

• University of Iowa student Gerald Belz, 18, was found unresponsive behind a campus building before dawn on Wednesday and later died in hospital. Officials said weather was a factor. His father told local news channel KCRG that Gerald was a "mama's boy with a tough exterior".
• A 70-year-old man in Detroit, Michigan, was found dead in front of a neighbour's home on Wednesday
• Another Michigan man in his 70s was found frozen to death in his neighbourhood. Officials said he was "inadequately dressed for the weather" and was probably disoriented
• On Tuesday, 55-year-old Charley Lampley froze to death in a garage in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, having "apparently collapsed after shovelling snow", according to a medical examiner
• An 82-year-old man in Pekin, Illinois, died from hypothermia after apparently falling outside his home on Tuesday
• A 75-year-old man was fatally struck by a snow plough near Chicago on Monday. The driver has since been placed on paid leave pending an investigation, according to WGN9 News
• In northern Indiana, a young couple died after a collision on icy roads

 

[angelburst29]

According to the US National Weather Service, temperatures plunged as low as -48.3 degrees in northern Illinois.

Jan. 31, 2019 - Polar vortex descends on US Midwest bringing bone-chilling arctic cold (Photos)
Polar vortex descends on US Midwest bringing bone-chilling arctic cold

A deadly arctic deep freeze enveloped the US Midwest with record-breaking temperatures, triggering widespread closures of schools and businesses. According to the US National Weather Service, temperatures plunged as low as -48.3 degrees in northern Illinois, -37.2 degrees in the central part of the state and -31.6 degrees in southern Illinois. According to the Flightaware flight tracking website, snowfalls caused a flurry of cancellations and delays at Chicago's two major airports. US Postal Service had to take the rare step of suspending mail delivery service to a wide swath of the region. See the images of how residents are weathering the arctic cold.

Records have been shattered as the polar vortex unleashed the harshest cold in years on the midwestern United States during the final days of January.

Jan. 31, 2019 - By the numbers: Midwestern US endures worst of polar vortex, all-time record lows broken
By the numbers: Midwestern US endures worst of polar vortex, all-time record lows broken

After the polar vortex plunged southward, temperatures plummeted under 20 below zero F from North Dakota to northern Illinois during the morning hours of both Wednesday and Thursday.

The low of 38 below zero recorded at Mt. Carroll, Illinois, is being reviewed by a state climate extremes committee to determine if the Illinois state record low was broken on Thursday morning. The current record is 36 below zero that was set near Congerville on Jan. 5, 1999.

Biting winds made the extreme cold more life-threatening as AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures dropped under 50 below zero. Frostbite can occur in mere minutes on exposed skin in these conditions.


Midwest extreme cold by the numbers


-77˚F
Lowest AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperature, recorded at Thief River Falls, Minnesota, on Tuesday evening.

-56˚F
The lowest actual temperature recorded in Cotton, Minnesota, on Thursday morning.

-38˚F
Low temperature recorded at Mt. Carroll, Illinois, on Thursday morning. If deemed accurate, it would be the new Illinois state record low.

8 hours
Consecutive hours of RealFeel® Temperatures under 65 below zero F in Grand Forks, North Dakota, on Tuesday.

-23˚F
Record low in Chicago on Wednesday morning, the lowest since the mid-1980s.

15 times
That temperatures have been at or under 21 below zero F in Chicago since records began in the 1870s.

14 hours
Consecutive hours of RealFeel® Temperatures under 50 below zero F in Minneapolis Tuesday evening and night.

1996
The last time temperatures were this low in Minneapolis. The city recorded a low of 28 below zero F on Wednesday morning.

94 degrees
Temperature difference between morning lows at Key West, Florida, and Key West, Iowa, on Wednesday.

9 states
In the Midwest and New England that recorded a temperature under 14 below zero (the low in Utqiagvik/Barrow, Alaska) on Thursday morning. These states were North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and New Hampshire.
All-time record lows broken on Thursday morning


-33˚F
Moline, Illinois (Previous record: 27 below zero from Jan. 16, 2009)

-30˚F
Cedar Rapids, Iowa (Previous record: 29 below zero from Jan. 15, 2009)

-30˚F
Rockford, Illinois (Previous record: 27 below zero from Jan. 10, 1982)
Sampling of daily record lows set on Thursday morning

New record
Previous record (Year)

The intense lake-effect snow machine that has buried communities under feet of snow and created extremely difficult travel will persist into Thursday night.

January 31, 2019 - Great Lakes communities to be further buried by deadly lake-effect snow into Thursday night (Video)
Great Lakes communities to be further buried by deadly lake-effect snow into Thursday night

The harshest air yet this winter caused snow showers and squalls to stream off the Great Lakes around the middle of the week.

At least three fatalities have been reported in Erie County, New York, during the storm, according to officials.

Buffalo, New York, was hit hard by a persistent lake-effect band on Wednesday, with visibility reduced to one-quarter mile or less for nearly eight consecutive hours at the international airport. Visibility was as low as one-sixteenth of a mile at times.
Most arrival and departure flights from Buffalo Niagara International Airport were canceled or delayed, according to The Buffalo News.

The airport has received more than 20 inches of snow since Tuesday. The 13.6 inches that fell alone on Wednesday set a new daily snowfall record.

Multi-vehicle accidents shut down portions of Interstate 190 and the New York State Thruway on Wednesday. The City of Buffalo issued a travel ban until 7 a.m. EST Thursday.
Additional disruptions to travel and daily routines are anticipated into Thursday night across parts of western New York. Several inches can fall within one hour.

By the time the snow winds down early Friday, the region can be buried by 2-4 feet of snow with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 6 feet.

As the lake-effect shuts off, a separate area of snow will sweep across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic at the end of the week.

 

[Voyageur]

Oookay (this belongs here)...

Elizabeth Warren Uses Coldest ‘Polar Vortex’ In Decades To Call For ‘Green New Deal’ To Fight Global Warming

This should all work out swimmingly.

From The Daily Caller


Michael Bastasch | Energy Editor


Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren used the bitter cold sweeping the Midwest and Northeast to announce her full-throated support for a “Green New Deal.”

“Our children & grandchildren should grow up in a world where they can breathe the air & drink the water – and go outside without risking their lives in extreme temperatures,” the Democrat tweeted Thursday using the hashtag #PolarVortex2019.

The “polar vortex” event refers to an atmospheric phenomenon that’s brought extreme, record-breaking cold to millions of Americans, with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit below zero and wind chill down in the negative 50s and 60s. It’s the coldest weather many states have seen in decades, meteorologists say.

For example, Chicago hit negative 23 degrees Fahrenheit, which is the coldest since 1985. Mount Carroll, Illinois, recorded negative 38 degrees, which, if certified, would be the coldest temperature recorded in the state.

“It’s time to protect our planet & pass a Green New Deal,” said Warren, who’s considering running for president in 2020.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is joined by her husband Bruce Mann and their dog Bailey as she speaks to reporters, after announcing she has formed an exploratory committee to run for president in 2020, outside her home in Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S., Dec. 31, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

The implication is that global warming is behind the record cold that’s forced factories to shut down, schools to close and taxed natural gas supplies across the country. Some climate scientists promote this theory, but many more disagree and see little to no data to back it up.

“The bottom line is that folks claiming that cold waves are increasing in the U.S. are ignoring observations and the peer-reviewed literature that state the opposite,” University of Washington climate scientist Cliff Mass told The Daily Caller News Foundation on Tuesday.

This is the first time Warren endorsed a “Green New Deal.” The 2020 hopeful’s staff previously said she endorsed the “idea” of a “Green New Deal.” Other 2020 Democratic hopefuls, including Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Cory Booker of New Jersey endorsed the proposal.

New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the main proponent of a “Green New Deal” and is set to unveil legislative text as soon as next week. While the details are sparse, a “Green New Deal” calls for the U.S. to abandon fossil fuels within 10 years, federal job guarantees and universal health care.

That may be a hard sell as millions of Americans rely on coal and natural gas to keep the lights on while renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, provide only a fraction of energy demand amid the record cold.

Coal and natural gas provided about 75 percent of the Midwest’s electricity during the ongoing cold snap as of Thursday afternoon, according to the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which oversees the region’s grid.

PJM Interconnection data for the Mid-Atlantic show coal and natural gas provided 68 percent of the electricity as temperatures plunged Thursday. Nuclear power also carried a major load, generating 26 percent of the region’s power.

 

[Esote]

At this time in the South Alps of France it's raining up to 2 200 meters (around 6 500 feet high)...

 

[angelburst29]

The Midwest, from the Dakotas to Western New York, is experiencing some of the coldest temperatures to hit the region in more than two decades, according to The Weather Channel — and the lake is feeling the effects.

Feb. 1, 2019 - Lake Michigan Has Completely Frozen Over Amid Dangerous Temperatures — See the Incredible Photos
Lake Michigan Has Completely Frozen Over Amid Dangerous Temperatures — See the Incredible Photos

As wind chill temperatures in Chicago dropped as low as -51 degrees Farenheit on Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service, parts of Lake Michigan turned to ice.

Residents across Michigan, Chicago and Wisconsin braved the cold to share their photos of the icy lake to social media.

On Wednesday morning, it was -23 degrees Farenheit in Chicago, and the National Weather Service recorded -30 in Wisconsin. The negative temps extend as far south as Kentucky, and according to The Weather Channel, things won’t get milder until the weekend.

On Instagram, users posted photos from Grand Haven, Michigan, and Holland, Michigan.