The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!
- Thread starter Gaby
- Start date
angelburst29
The Living Force
Chicago - A life-threatening deep freeze gripped the American Midwest on Wednesday as weather colder than Antarctica grounded flights, disrupted travel and brought life to a standstill for tens of millions.
Feb. 1, 2019 - Colder than Antarctica: brutal deep freeze grips US Midwest
Colder than Antarctica: brutal deep freeze grips US Midwest
America's third city Chicago -- where the morning temperature was -22 degrees Fahrenheit (-30 Celsius), which felt like -50 degrees (-46 Celsius) with wind chill -- was colder than Alaska's state capital and even colder than parts of Antarctica.
More than 1,500 flights were canceled in the city's two major airports while rail operator Amtrak scrapped train services from its Chicago hub.
The US Postal Service -- known for its commitment to bringing the mail whatever the weather -- suspended deliveries in parts of Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, the Dakotas and Nebraska.
The cause of the sub-zero chill was a swirl of arctic air that broke away from the polar vortex that usually encircles the North Pole.
"A record arctic air mass will remain over the central and eastern US over the next several days," the National Weather Service said.
"Wind chill values of 30 to 60 degrees below zero will be common across the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and upper Midwest."
January 31, 2019 - NASA Discovers a ‘Disturbing’ 1,000-Foot-Tall Cavity Under a Glacier in Antarctica
NASA Discovers a ‘Disturbing’ 1,000-Foot-Tall Cavity Under a Glacier in Antarctica
Researchers, who have long suspected a cavity between the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica and the underlying bedrock, used ice-penetrating radar and new satellites capable of high-resolution data to study the glacier more closely. They found a cavity 1,000-feet tall that was “big enough to have contained 14 billion tons of ice—and most of that ice melted over the last three years.”
January 31, 2019 - 'Dangerous' Antarctic glacier has a hole roughly two-thirds area of Manhattan, scientists warn
'Dangerous' Antarctic glacier has a hole roughly two-thirds area of Manhattan, scientists warn
This undated photo courtesy of NASA shows Thwaites Glacier in Western Antarctica
Feb. 1, 2019 - Colder than Antarctica: brutal deep freeze grips US Midwest
Colder than Antarctica: brutal deep freeze grips US Midwest
America's third city Chicago -- where the morning temperature was -22 degrees Fahrenheit (-30 Celsius), which felt like -50 degrees (-46 Celsius) with wind chill -- was colder than Alaska's state capital and even colder than parts of Antarctica.
More than 1,500 flights were canceled in the city's two major airports while rail operator Amtrak scrapped train services from its Chicago hub.
The US Postal Service -- known for its commitment to bringing the mail whatever the weather -- suspended deliveries in parts of Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, the Dakotas and Nebraska.
The cause of the sub-zero chill was a swirl of arctic air that broke away from the polar vortex that usually encircles the North Pole.
"A record arctic air mass will remain over the central and eastern US over the next several days," the National Weather Service said.
"Wind chill values of 30 to 60 degrees below zero will be common across the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and upper Midwest."
January 31, 2019 - NASA Discovers a ‘Disturbing’ 1,000-Foot-Tall Cavity Under a Glacier in Antarctica
NASA Discovers a ‘Disturbing’ 1,000-Foot-Tall Cavity Under a Glacier in Antarctica
Researchers, who have long suspected a cavity between the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica and the underlying bedrock, used ice-penetrating radar and new satellites capable of high-resolution data to study the glacier more closely. They found a cavity 1,000-feet tall that was “big enough to have contained 14 billion tons of ice—and most of that ice melted over the last three years.”
January 31, 2019 - 'Dangerous' Antarctic glacier has a hole roughly two-thirds area of Manhattan, scientists warn
'Dangerous' Antarctic glacier has a hole roughly two-thirds area of Manhattan, scientists warn
This undated photo courtesy of NASA shows Thwaites Glacier in Western Antarctica
Last edited by a moderator:
angelburst29
The Living Force
Weather forecasts on Friday showed Northern and Western Europe are set for a weekend of cold and snow, with some parts expected to experience temperatures as low as 12C below average.
Feb. 1, 2019 - Big freeze: Cold weather and snow to sweep Western Europe this weekend
Big freeze: Cold weather and snow to sweep western Europe this weekend
Saturday afternoon looked set to bring a cold front in countries including Portugal, Spain, France, Ireland, the UK, Benelux and Scandinavia, according to data compiled by weather blog Tropical Tidbits.
A map of temperature anomalies — which shows the difference with baseline temperatures recorded between 1981 and 2010 — revealed that parts of Spain, Scotland and Scandinavia would see the mercury drop up to 12C below average over the weekend and into Monday.
But the chill looked like it would be milder than the polar vortex which engulfed large swathes of North America this week, claiming the lives of at least 21 people. Temperatures in Cotton, Minnesota, for instance, went as low as -48C on Thursday. In Chicago, it reached -30C.
Still, forecasts predicted over the coming three days temperatures in parts of Norway and Finland would plummet to between -17 and -22C. In Scotland they would fall below zero into the double digits and Spaniards would face temperatures as low as -4C.
Britain's Met Office also issued a yellow warning for Saturday and on Monday an alert for snow and ice. In France, meteorologists predict snowfalls in areas from 700 m altitude.
Tropical Tidbits forecasted that some of the most abundant snowfalls would be across the Alps and Pyrenees mountain ranges, as well as in Finland although most of the West European region would be impacted.
Feb. 1, 2019 - Big freeze: Cold weather and snow to sweep Western Europe this weekend
Big freeze: Cold weather and snow to sweep western Europe this weekend
Saturday afternoon looked set to bring a cold front in countries including Portugal, Spain, France, Ireland, the UK, Benelux and Scandinavia, according to data compiled by weather blog Tropical Tidbits.
A map of temperature anomalies — which shows the difference with baseline temperatures recorded between 1981 and 2010 — revealed that parts of Spain, Scotland and Scandinavia would see the mercury drop up to 12C below average over the weekend and into Monday.
But the chill looked like it would be milder than the polar vortex which engulfed large swathes of North America this week, claiming the lives of at least 21 people. Temperatures in Cotton, Minnesota, for instance, went as low as -48C on Thursday. In Chicago, it reached -30C.
Still, forecasts predicted over the coming three days temperatures in parts of Norway and Finland would plummet to between -17 and -22C. In Scotland they would fall below zero into the double digits and Spaniards would face temperatures as low as -4C.
Britain's Met Office also issued a yellow warning for Saturday and on Monday an alert for snow and ice. In France, meteorologists predict snowfalls in areas from 700 m altitude.
Tropical Tidbits forecasted that some of the most abundant snowfalls would be across the Alps and Pyrenees mountain ranges, as well as in Finland although most of the West European region would be impacted.
Polar Vortex Tests U.S. Natural Gas, Electric Systems | OilPrice.com
Natural gas and electricity networks in the United States have proved resilient during the polar vortex this week.
oilprice.com
New York Freezes & Polar Vortex Aftermath Midwest (784)
Considering Laura's writings about the Day After Tomorrow, and how global warming is supposed to make winter go away, it's rather striking when you present it like that...
The universe seems to enjoy irony...but everything always warms up so I'm sure it's fine
If anyone is interested in following the situation in the Arctic including Greenland most of the information previously posted on the page of dmi.dk is now to be found on www.polarportal.dk Home: Polar Portal
This winter has been unusually dry and not much ice has accumulated, in fact many areas have lost ice since the beginning of the cold season. I assume this can be explained by sublimation, or the fact that ice which is frozen water may move directly to the state of water vapor without the need to melt first, the drier the air the more pronounced this effect is. To get an idea of the situation of the ice coverage have a look at this illustration:
Notice the rather low level of Ice accumulated since September. As the picture is embedded it may change, but at least those looking at the time of posting may have an idea.
On the map below one can see the extent of the sea ice and to get an idea of the trend one can click the animation too:
As one can read from the maps there is still an ice age in the Arctic, and it is far from being ice free.
This winter has been unusually dry and not much ice has accumulated, in fact many areas have lost ice since the beginning of the cold season. I assume this can be explained by sublimation, or the fact that ice which is frozen water may move directly to the state of water vapor without the need to melt first, the drier the air the more pronounced this effect is. To get an idea of the situation of the ice coverage have a look at this illustration:
Notice the rather low level of Ice accumulated since September. As the picture is embedded it may change, but at least those looking at the time of posting may have an idea.
On the map below one can see the extent of the sea ice and to get an idea of the trend one can click the animation too:
As one can read from the maps there is still an ice age in the Arctic, and it is far from being ice free.
When I compare this picture of the situation for the Arctic Sea Ice from February 23rd, where 2019 is the "red operational line":
with this map of the accumulated anomaly for the ice sheet in Greenland:
then it appears that the sea ice is a bit higher than usual while the accumulated mass on the ice sheet is somewhat lower. While I don't know all the details the professional would present, a hypothesis could be that dry weather over Greenland also indicates less cloud cover because no warm humid air is moving into the area. If less cloud cover is also present over the Arctic Sea, then one may expect more loss of heat to cosmic space and therefore also slightly lower temperatures, similar to what we experience during a star lit winter night. Lower temperatures and calm winds over the sea would then lead to more water turning into ice.
Since we here in February have had quite warm temperatures for the season in Western Europe, I am wondering how this situation in the Artic / North Atlantic is going to develop later in Spring. One possibility is that there will be a sharp contrast between cold Arctic air and warm humid air in the south which would lead to good amounts of precipitation. We will see.
with this map of the accumulated anomaly for the ice sheet in Greenland:
then it appears that the sea ice is a bit higher than usual while the accumulated mass on the ice sheet is somewhat lower. While I don't know all the details the professional would present, a hypothesis could be that dry weather over Greenland also indicates less cloud cover because no warm humid air is moving into the area. If less cloud cover is also present over the Arctic Sea, then one may expect more loss of heat to cosmic space and therefore also slightly lower temperatures, similar to what we experience during a star lit winter night. Lower temperatures and calm winds over the sea would then lead to more water turning into ice.
Since we here in February have had quite warm temperatures for the season in Western Europe, I am wondering how this situation in the Artic / North Atlantic is going to develop later in Spring. One possibility is that there will be a sharp contrast between cold Arctic air and warm humid air in the south which would lead to good amounts of precipitation. We will see.
Indeed, when there is no cloud, during the night there is more thermic restitution from the planet . However, clouds have a net cooling effect. So, a dry weather (no cloud) would tend to raise surface temperatures, mostly because of the increased solar heating during daytime.
During the Arctic Winter in the far North, if it is dry there will be only limited effect of the Sun during "day time", because the Sun is below the horizon or very low in the sky the whole "day". This is very strange and perhaps even difficult to imagine, if one has not experienced it. To get an idea of the effect one can enter Day and Night World Map and move the time back and forth a few weeks or months. Here is picture of the situation right now:
If the shades in the above picture are puzzling for some, then consider this
Notice if you go back to the world map that near the North Pole there is now a kind of 24 hour twilight. This twilight is a the moment a nautical twilight, meaning the Sun is between 6 and 12 degrees below the horizon all "day". What does this mean for the temperatures?
If one looks up the climate for say Svalbard, an island located in the far North Atlantic, right above Norway, then the temperatures in March are comparable to those of January and February, even though the Sun is rising and getting higher by the day. One may explain this observation from a middle latitude experience if one has noticed that the temperatures during the winter can be even lower after the Sun has risen, because the balance between incoming heat and outgoing heat is still negative.
While looking up the above details, I found another map the gives the extent of the sea ice in the arctic along with the temperature of the ice,. On Sea Ice Temperature: Polar Portal one can scroll back in time to follow how the situation has developed. Below is the present situation:
It appears that we here at the end of February still need a few ice breakers or better a good u-boat to cross the sea above Russia and Canada.
syldan
Dagobah Resident
In the Laurentians, north of Montreal, febuary 26, 2019. Nobody has seen this here ever in their lifetime.
Reminescent of 2008 (11 year solar cycle?) but more troubling with at least six more weeks of solid winter to come! In 1998 ( close to the 11 year cycle again) we had a major blackout when the Hydro Québec grid crashed, and millions were without electricity for up to 6 weeks in the dead of winter. January 1998 North American ice storm - Wikipedia
View from my partner's recording studio window, on the main floor after clearing some of the roof today.
Clearing the roof(s) because many have crashed in our area. Even though the house is brand new, my friend who is a fireman and his colleagues have been called daily and nightly to inspect old houses literrally about to crumble under the weight of the layers of ice and snow. We had started experiencing plumbing and air flow problems sor we went for it and as you saw in the first picture, our problems are not over yet for this winter...
In our minds, new technologies will be rolled out, and made more available at reasonable cost very quickly. We already install heated floors for bathrooms and ceramic tile floors. But soon we may need heated roofs, (or very expensive metal roofs (traditional here) to protect from what's coming! And it seems to be coming at a fierce pace.
Night shot of our elevated back garden patio, whose floor is 5 feet (2.3 m) above the ground.
Best of luck to all! Best to be prepared than sorry. Most people here have wood stoves/ fireplaces just in case. And it is a very important reason why my partner and I moved out to the Laurentians from the big city last year. It's the best move we ever made!
Yet this in only the DAY BEFORE TOMMOROW...
Reminescent of 2008 (11 year solar cycle?) but more troubling with at least six more weeks of solid winter to come! In 1998 ( close to the 11 year cycle again) we had a major blackout when the Hydro Québec grid crashed, and millions were without electricity for up to 6 weeks in the dead of winter. January 1998 North American ice storm - Wikipedia
View from my partner's recording studio window, on the main floor after clearing some of the roof today.
Clearing the roof(s) because many have crashed in our area. Even though the house is brand new, my friend who is a fireman and his colleagues have been called daily and nightly to inspect old houses literrally about to crumble under the weight of the layers of ice and snow. We had started experiencing plumbing and air flow problems sor we went for it and as you saw in the first picture, our problems are not over yet for this winter...
In our minds, new technologies will be rolled out, and made more available at reasonable cost very quickly. We already install heated floors for bathrooms and ceramic tile floors. But soon we may need heated roofs, (or very expensive metal roofs (traditional here) to protect from what's coming! And it seems to be coming at a fierce pace.
Night shot of our elevated back garden patio, whose floor is 5 feet (2.3 m) above the ground.
Best of luck to all! Best to be prepared than sorry. Most people here have wood stoves/ fireplaces just in case. And it is a very important reason why my partner and I moved out to the Laurentians from the big city last year. It's the best move we ever made!
Yet this in only the DAY BEFORE TOMMOROW...
Auroral Evidence of Upcoming Mini or Little Ice Age?
Guest Blogger / 8 hours ago March 9, 2019
Guest Opinion; Dr. Tim Ball
A recent article in the British newspaper The Express titled, “Northern Lights in the UK: Can you watch Aurora Borealis from UK? Where can you see it?” raises interesting questions and comparisons with historical events. It also appears to reinforce the climate forecasts for the next few decades.
Source: Daily Express
Sir Edmund Halley (1656 – 1742) was one of the great astronomers in history. He proved his science in the best way possible by making an accurate prediction. He predicted the return of a comet that they then named after him. I became familiar with his work while working on the climate record of the Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC) at Churchill, Manitoba.
The record was given a great scientific boost when in 1768/9 two astronomers, William Wales and Joseph Dymond arrived in Churchill to measure the Transit of Venus. Halley first identified this event and devised a procedure to gather data to determine the distance of the Earth from the Sun. This distance was critical to accurately testing Newton’s theory of gravity. A Transit occurred in 1761, but lack of knowledge and a useable technique resulted in failure. The 1769 Transit was critical because another Transit would not occur for 105 years.
Sir Neville Maskelyne, President of the Royal Society, sent the astronomers. They brought a range of instruments made specifically for them by the Society to carry out a range of scientific measures including thermometers and barometers. They left them at Churchill where the HBC employees continued to maintain some of the earliest instrumental records in North America.
In an interesting irony, Halley’s life spanned the coldest portion of the Little Ice Age with the nadir in 1680. To my knowledge, he did not write about this, but he did write about astronomical events related to it. For example, he was invited by the Royal Society to visit Scotland to observe and submit a report on the newly seen Aurora Borealis. His submission was published in their Philosophical Transactions, in 1714 under the magnificent title,
An account of the late surprizing appearance of the lights seen in the air, on the sixth of March last; with an attempt to explain the principal phænomena thereof; as it was laid before the Royal Society by Edmund Halley, J. V. D. Savilian Professor of Geom. Oxon, and Reg. Soc. Secr.
His abstract is very different from those we see in today’s academic or scientific journals, but this is a time when the title scientist did not exist. He wrote,
The Royal Society, having received accounts from very many parts of Great Britain, of the unusual lights which have of late appeared in the heavens ; were pleased to signify their desires to me, that I should draw up a general resation (sic) of the fact, and explain more at large some conceptions of mine I had proposed to them about it, as seeming to some of them to render a tollerable solution of the very strange and surprizing phænomena thereof.
He knew about them from earlier reports, and he also knew about their relationship with sunspots. He knew about sunspots from Galileo’s work but had not seen them either because his life also spanned a period with very few sunspots. The diagram shows the most accepted reproduction of sunspot numbers with only a few over Halley’s lifetime.
Aurora borealis or northern lights are among the most spectacular atmospheric displays. Called Aurora australis in the southern hemisphere they are visible evidence of the relationship between the sun and climate. In early days they called them Petty Dancers from the French petite danseurs. In England, they were also called Lord Derwentwater’s lights because they were unusually bright on February 24th, 1716, the day he was beheaded. A bad omen for him, but they were also an indicator of the bad weather and harvest failures of the period.
Ionized particles streaming out from the sun are called the solar wind. The term is misleading because they are solid electrically charged particles. Activity on the Sun is seen as sunspots and solar flares and coincides with variations in the strength of the solar wind. When these charged particles reach the upper levels of the earth’s atmosphere, they collide with the molecules of nitrogen and oxygen. This collision creates electrical charges that make the gas molecules glow. The gas determines the colours of the Aurora. Nitrogen produces red and oxygen the shades from almost white through yellow to green.
Many northern North American First Nations people used them to predict the weather. The Cree in Manitoba expected three to four weeks of cold weather after a prolonged period of display. This is very accurate as it relates to the average eastward movement of the Rossby Waves. Henry Youle Hind, leader of a scientific expedition across Canada, wrote on the 19th of September 1858 about Ojibway predictions:
We arrived at the mouth of the river at 10 A.M. and hastened to avail ourselves of a south-east wind just to rise. Last night the aurora was very beautiful, and extended far beyond the zenith, leading the voyageurs to predict a windy day. The notion prevails with them that when the aurora is low, the following day will be calm; when high, stormy.
Samuel Hearne spent two and one-half years with the Chipewyan, (then called the Northern Indians.) His report on their explanation of the aurora is fascinating.
The Northern Indians call the Aurora Borealis, Ed-thin; and when that meteor is very bright, they say that deer is plentiful in that part of the atmosphere;,,, Their ideas in this respect are founded on a principle one would not imagine. Experience has shewn tham, (sic) that when a hairy deer-skin is briskly stroked with the hand in a dark night, it will emit many sparks of electrical fire, as the back of a cat will.
This describes the phenomenon of static electricity and is remarkably close to the current explanation of the Aurora.
The composite image from NASA shows the Aurora from space as a circle around the Magnetic Pole.
Although at a higher altitude it is coincident with the dome of cold air that sits over the Pole.
The auroral ring expands and contracts as the cold air dome expands and contracts. This means when the Aurora is seen closer to the Equator there is cold pervading the Northern hemisphere. This is the situation of the last several years. It is accentuated by the change of pattern in the Rossby Waves along the Polar Front from low to high amplitude Waves. It results in more extreme outbreaks of cold air pushing further toward the Equator and warm air penetrating further to the Pole as the cold air moves out of the way.
Similar conditions occurred in the 17th century. Diarist Samuel Pepys (1633-1703) wrote about the conditions on many occasions. They were especially concerned about the mild winters, so the government recommended action. On January 15, 1662, Pepys wrote,
“And after we had eaten, he (Mr. Bechenshaw, a friend) asked me whether we have not committed a fault in eating today, telling me that it is a fastday, ordered by the parliament to pray for more seasonable weather it hitherto had been some summer weather, that is, both as to warm and every other thing, just as if it were the middle of May or June, which doth threaten a plague (as all men think) to follow, for so it was almost all last winter, and the whole year after hath been a very sickly time, to this day.”
The prayers paid off. On January 26th Pepys wrote,
“It having been a very fine clear frosty day. God send us more of them, for the warm weather all this winter makes us fear a sick summer.”
Pepys’ concern mirrors an old English saying that,
“A green winter makes a fat churchyard.”
His concern was well-founded because the plague returned, reaching London in 1665.
When you read the entire series of weather entries in Pepys’ diaries that cover the period 1660 – 1690, the pattern of remarkably variable weather is symptomatic of a Meridional Rossby Wave flow.
It was a similar pattern described in Barbara Tuchman’s 1978 book “A Distant Mirror; The Calamitous Fourteenth Century.” It was another example, like Halley of an important person, the nobleman Enguerrand VII de Courcy, whose life spanned an important climate period the 14th century, with weather comparable to the 17th century and the early 21st century. It lasted longer and was more profound because it was a transitional century as the world cooled from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA).
The current debate attracting more and more people is that we are cooling with the only question left as to the extent and intensity. Will it be weather similar to the cooler period coincident with the Dalton Minimum from 1790 – 1830? Alternatively, will it be colder with similar conditions to those by the early fur traders in Hudson Bay or those that spanned the life of Sir Edmund Halley? The appearance of Aurora in northern England suggests the latter, although I can predict who will protest this suggestion.
Guest Blogger / 8 hours ago March 9, 2019
Guest Opinion; Dr. Tim Ball
A recent article in the British newspaper The Express titled, “Northern Lights in the UK: Can you watch Aurora Borealis from UK? Where can you see it?” raises interesting questions and comparisons with historical events. It also appears to reinforce the climate forecasts for the next few decades.
Source: Daily Express
Sir Edmund Halley (1656 – 1742) was one of the great astronomers in history. He proved his science in the best way possible by making an accurate prediction. He predicted the return of a comet that they then named after him. I became familiar with his work while working on the climate record of the Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC) at Churchill, Manitoba.
The record was given a great scientific boost when in 1768/9 two astronomers, William Wales and Joseph Dymond arrived in Churchill to measure the Transit of Venus. Halley first identified this event and devised a procedure to gather data to determine the distance of the Earth from the Sun. This distance was critical to accurately testing Newton’s theory of gravity. A Transit occurred in 1761, but lack of knowledge and a useable technique resulted in failure. The 1769 Transit was critical because another Transit would not occur for 105 years.
Sir Neville Maskelyne, President of the Royal Society, sent the astronomers. They brought a range of instruments made specifically for them by the Society to carry out a range of scientific measures including thermometers and barometers. They left them at Churchill where the HBC employees continued to maintain some of the earliest instrumental records in North America.
In an interesting irony, Halley’s life spanned the coldest portion of the Little Ice Age with the nadir in 1680. To my knowledge, he did not write about this, but he did write about astronomical events related to it. For example, he was invited by the Royal Society to visit Scotland to observe and submit a report on the newly seen Aurora Borealis. His submission was published in their Philosophical Transactions, in 1714 under the magnificent title,
An account of the late surprizing appearance of the lights seen in the air, on the sixth of March last; with an attempt to explain the principal phænomena thereof; as it was laid before the Royal Society by Edmund Halley, J. V. D. Savilian Professor of Geom. Oxon, and Reg. Soc. Secr.
His abstract is very different from those we see in today’s academic or scientific journals, but this is a time when the title scientist did not exist. He wrote,
The Royal Society, having received accounts from very many parts of Great Britain, of the unusual lights which have of late appeared in the heavens ; were pleased to signify their desires to me, that I should draw up a general resation (sic) of the fact, and explain more at large some conceptions of mine I had proposed to them about it, as seeming to some of them to render a tollerable solution of the very strange and surprizing phænomena thereof.
He knew about them from earlier reports, and he also knew about their relationship with sunspots. He knew about sunspots from Galileo’s work but had not seen them either because his life also spanned a period with very few sunspots. The diagram shows the most accepted reproduction of sunspot numbers with only a few over Halley’s lifetime.
Aurora borealis or northern lights are among the most spectacular atmospheric displays. Called Aurora australis in the southern hemisphere they are visible evidence of the relationship between the sun and climate. In early days they called them Petty Dancers from the French petite danseurs. In England, they were also called Lord Derwentwater’s lights because they were unusually bright on February 24th, 1716, the day he was beheaded. A bad omen for him, but they were also an indicator of the bad weather and harvest failures of the period.
Ionized particles streaming out from the sun are called the solar wind. The term is misleading because they are solid electrically charged particles. Activity on the Sun is seen as sunspots and solar flares and coincides with variations in the strength of the solar wind. When these charged particles reach the upper levels of the earth’s atmosphere, they collide with the molecules of nitrogen and oxygen. This collision creates electrical charges that make the gas molecules glow. The gas determines the colours of the Aurora. Nitrogen produces red and oxygen the shades from almost white through yellow to green.
Many northern North American First Nations people used them to predict the weather. The Cree in Manitoba expected three to four weeks of cold weather after a prolonged period of display. This is very accurate as it relates to the average eastward movement of the Rossby Waves. Henry Youle Hind, leader of a scientific expedition across Canada, wrote on the 19th of September 1858 about Ojibway predictions:
We arrived at the mouth of the river at 10 A.M. and hastened to avail ourselves of a south-east wind just to rise. Last night the aurora was very beautiful, and extended far beyond the zenith, leading the voyageurs to predict a windy day. The notion prevails with them that when the aurora is low, the following day will be calm; when high, stormy.
Samuel Hearne spent two and one-half years with the Chipewyan, (then called the Northern Indians.) His report on their explanation of the aurora is fascinating.
The Northern Indians call the Aurora Borealis, Ed-thin; and when that meteor is very bright, they say that deer is plentiful in that part of the atmosphere;,,, Their ideas in this respect are founded on a principle one would not imagine. Experience has shewn tham, (sic) that when a hairy deer-skin is briskly stroked with the hand in a dark night, it will emit many sparks of electrical fire, as the back of a cat will.
This describes the phenomenon of static electricity and is remarkably close to the current explanation of the Aurora.
The composite image from NASA shows the Aurora from space as a circle around the Magnetic Pole.
Although at a higher altitude it is coincident with the dome of cold air that sits over the Pole.
The auroral ring expands and contracts as the cold air dome expands and contracts. This means when the Aurora is seen closer to the Equator there is cold pervading the Northern hemisphere. This is the situation of the last several years. It is accentuated by the change of pattern in the Rossby Waves along the Polar Front from low to high amplitude Waves. It results in more extreme outbreaks of cold air pushing further toward the Equator and warm air penetrating further to the Pole as the cold air moves out of the way.
Similar conditions occurred in the 17th century. Diarist Samuel Pepys (1633-1703) wrote about the conditions on many occasions. They were especially concerned about the mild winters, so the government recommended action. On January 15, 1662, Pepys wrote,
“And after we had eaten, he (Mr. Bechenshaw, a friend) asked me whether we have not committed a fault in eating today, telling me that it is a fastday, ordered by the parliament to pray for more seasonable weather it hitherto had been some summer weather, that is, both as to warm and every other thing, just as if it were the middle of May or June, which doth threaten a plague (as all men think) to follow, for so it was almost all last winter, and the whole year after hath been a very sickly time, to this day.”
The prayers paid off. On January 26th Pepys wrote,
“It having been a very fine clear frosty day. God send us more of them, for the warm weather all this winter makes us fear a sick summer.”
Pepys’ concern mirrors an old English saying that,
“A green winter makes a fat churchyard.”
His concern was well-founded because the plague returned, reaching London in 1665.
When you read the entire series of weather entries in Pepys’ diaries that cover the period 1660 – 1690, the pattern of remarkably variable weather is symptomatic of a Meridional Rossby Wave flow.
It was a similar pattern described in Barbara Tuchman’s 1978 book “A Distant Mirror; The Calamitous Fourteenth Century.” It was another example, like Halley of an important person, the nobleman Enguerrand VII de Courcy, whose life spanned an important climate period the 14th century, with weather comparable to the 17th century and the early 21st century. It lasted longer and was more profound because it was a transitional century as the world cooled from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA).
The current debate attracting more and more people is that we are cooling with the only question left as to the extent and intensity. Will it be weather similar to the cooler period coincident with the Dalton Minimum from 1790 – 1830? Alternatively, will it be colder with similar conditions to those by the early fur traders in Hudson Bay or those that spanned the life of Sir Edmund Halley? The appearance of Aurora in northern England suggests the latter, although I can predict who will protest this suggestion.
I was interested in the colours, but came upon an explanation of why auroras are even visible during the night when the earth is turned away from the Sun. It turns out some of the particles get caught by the tail of the Earth magnetosphere, the part that turns away from the Sun:
The colour display depends on the altitude and the atoms excited, as the next illustration shows. Notice the curtains at the right which shows red at the top, green in the middle and pink, reddish or crimson at the bottom. The illustration is from Why are there Colors in the Aurora?
In reality the situation is somewhat more complex, which might explain that the details of what colours appear at what height varied from web page to web page. The light we see is the outcome of several different interactions according to a page from a German university in Hannover. Atomic spectra
They comment below the picture/flash:
One reason why we see different colours at different heights is that the distribution of the different particles and gasses change with altitude, as illustrated by the following picture/flash from the same German page:
Explaining the relationship between height and colour they write:
They don't explain it, but from what they write I reason that if the magnetic field lines are closer to the ground at high latitudes, then the field lines must be higher up at lower latitudes. If this is the case one might expect the red colours associated with high altitude auroras to be relatively more prominent in auroras observed at lower latitudes.
Auroras are not common in Germany, being too far south of where most auroras are observed, may the above hypothesis explain why the photographer. Ulrich Rieth got so many red colours in Wiesbaden?
If by chance a comet dumps a huge amount of dust in the ionosphere or the comet dust is carried here by the solar wind, would the spectral lines we might observe during the auroras change? Hard to say, but at least dust and auroras sometimes show up when not expected, as this case from Mars shows: NASA Spacecraft Detects Aurora and Mysterious Dust Cloud around Mars – NASA’s Mars Exploration Program as this artist representation shows:
If we begin to see an increase of "northern light" quite far south or worse some new colours, then we know something is happening. In the article Laura quoted the author actually ends by saying:
Really interesting observations and data concerning these remarkable lights! To imagine that those indians could predict the weather so accurately just by observing the Aurorae is incredible! Thank you for sharing!
Whoa, that was a great read from Tim Ball, thanks for posting it!
Pepys diary is a great read in general. So is "A Cold Welcome" and "The Plundering Time" and "A Land as God Made It" all about early colonial America and all the stuff going on in the background of people fleeing Europe, more or less, to come to the New World.
