The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

Pierre

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FOTCM Member
In case you were wondering about the genesis of the infamous IPCC, it was spearheaded by Thatcher in the 1980's in order to weaken the coal union. Talk about an impartial organization!

Thatcher went on to found the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and gave early direction to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to elevate the issue at home and abroad. She held a press conference upon the release of the first IPCC assessment (1990) and warned that “greenhouse gases … will warm the Earth’s surface with serious consequences for us all.”
...

What was behind Thatcher’s “conversion experience” to climate alarmism in 1988? Part of the answer was the pressure she received from her advisors John Houghton and Sir Crispin Tickell, who were in step with the emerging environmental movement. Also, global warming was an issue that provided her with enhanced international prestige.


But perhaps most important was her vigorous battle against the nationalized, unionized coal-mining sector, the leadership of which was socialistic at heart and determined to break her reform agenda.


The memories of Arthur Scargill of the National Union of Mineworkers using thuggery against strike breakers in the long months of 1984–85, and her preference for nuclear power to generate electricity, undoubtedly made her welcome an environmental issue that would help cut coal down to size.


Natural gas from the North Sea, too, was poised to replace coal and significantly reduce CO2 emission rates in electricity generation. It would have been undoubtedly different for the Prime Minister had carbon-emission reductions not been an affordable option for the U.K
Full article here
 

angelburst29

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Chicago - A life-threatening deep freeze gripped the American Midwest on Wednesday as weather colder than Antarctica grounded flights, disrupted travel and brought life to a standstill for tens of millions.

Feb. 1, 2019 - Colder than Antarctica: brutal deep freeze grips US Midwest

Colder than Antarctica: brutal deep freeze grips US Midwest

America's third city Chicago -- where the morning temperature was -22 degrees Fahrenheit (-30 Celsius), which felt like -50 degrees (-46 Celsius) with wind chill -- was colder than Alaska's state capital and even colder than parts of Antarctica.

More than 1,500 flights were canceled in the city's two major airports while rail operator Amtrak scrapped train services from its Chicago hub.

The US Postal Service -- known for its commitment to bringing the mail whatever the weather -- suspended deliveries in parts of Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, the Dakotas and Nebraska.

The cause of the sub-zero chill was a swirl of arctic air that broke away from the polar vortex that usually encircles the North Pole.

"A record arctic air mass will remain over the central and eastern US over the next several days," the National Weather Service said.

"Wind chill values of 30 to 60 degrees below zero will be common across the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and upper Midwest."


A massive cavity that’s two-thirds as large as Manhattan is expanding below an Antarctic glacier, according to a “disturbing” discovery revealed through a recent NASA-led study.
January 31, 2019 - NASA Discovers a ‘Disturbing’ 1,000-Foot-Tall Cavity Under a Glacier in Antarctica

NASA Discovers a ‘Disturbing’ 1,000-Foot-Tall Cavity Under a Glacier in Antarctica

Researchers, who have long suspected a cavity between the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica and the underlying bedrock, used ice-penetrating radar and new satellites capable of high-resolution data to study the glacier more closely. They found a cavity 1,000-feet tall that was “big enough to have contained 14 billion tons of ice—and most of that ice melted over the last three years.”

“[The size of] a cavity under a glacier plays an important role in melting,” the study’s lead author, Pietro Milillo of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said in a news release about the study. “As more heat and water get under the glacier, it melts faster.”

JPL said that the findings “highlight the need for detailed observations of Antarctic glaciers’ undersides in calculating how fast global sea levels will rise in response to climate change.”

The Thwaites Glacier, which is about the size of Florida, has been responsible for about 4% of the rise in sea levels so far, still holds enough ice to raise the world ocean a little over 2 feet upon melting. It could also lead to melting in neighboring glaciers that could add another 8 feet to sea levels if they completely melted, JPL said.

Other recent studies have shown that sea levels are already rising as fast as they have in 2,800 years, and that oceans could rise twice as much this century as scientists had previously anticipated. Most of the melting so far has come from Arctic ice, which produces the equivalent of 14,000 tons per second of water into the oceans.

Cavity roughly two-thirds the size of Manhattan is growing under Thwaites, described by scientists as world's most dangerous glacier, per a NASA study.
January 31, 2019 - 'Dangerous' Antarctic glacier has a hole roughly two-thirds area of Manhattan, scientists warn

'Dangerous' Antarctic glacier has a hole roughly two-thirds area of Manhattan, scientists warn
This undated photo courtesy of NASA shows Thwaites Glacier in Western Antarctica.

This undated photo courtesy of NASA shows Thwaites Glacier in Western Antarctica

 
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angelburst29

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Weather forecasts on Friday showed Northern and Western Europe are set for a weekend of cold and snow, with some parts expected to experience temperatures as low as 12C below average.

Feb. 1, 2019 - Big freeze: Cold weather and snow to sweep Western Europe this weekend

Big freeze: Cold weather and snow to sweep western Europe this weekend

Saturday afternoon looked set to bring a cold front in countries including Portugal, Spain, France, Ireland, the UK, Benelux and Scandinavia, according to data compiled by weather blog Tropical Tidbits.

A map of temperature anomalies — which shows the difference with baseline temperatures recorded between 1981 and 2010 — revealed that parts of Spain, Scotland and Scandinavia would see the mercury drop up to 12C below average over the weekend and into Monday.

But the chill looked like it would be milder than the polar vortex which engulfed large swathes of North America this week, claiming the lives of at least 21 people. Temperatures in Cotton, Minnesota, for instance, went as low as -48C on Thursday. In Chicago, it reached -30C.

Still, forecasts predicted over the coming three days temperatures in parts of Norway and Finland would plummet to between -17 and -22C. In Scotland they would fall below zero into the double digits and Spaniards would face temperatures as low as -4C.

Britain's Met Office also issued a yellow warning for Saturday and on Monday an alert for snow and ice. In France, meteorologists predict snowfalls in areas from 700 m altitude.


Tropical Tidbits forecasted that some of the most abundant snowfalls would be across the Alps and Pyrenees mountain ranges, as well as in Finland although most of the West European region would be impacted.
 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
2-3 minute Read Feb 01, 2019, 6:00 PM CST
Natural gas and electricity networks in the United States have proved resilient during the polar vortex this week, while natural gas futures prices even dropped during one of the coldest snaps in the Midwest in decades.

The natural gas and electric systems across the U.S. have been under less pressure compared to the previous polar vortex in 2014.

PJM Interconnection, the electric grid operator for all or parts of 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois, has reported no realibility issues so far.

Natural gas use in the United States hit a record on Wednesday, according to estimates by financial data provider Refinitiv, quoted by Reuters.

Some utilities have urged their customers to voluntarily reduce gas use. Consumers Energy of Michigan urged on Wednesday customers to voluntarily cut gas use as a result of an unexpected incident at a Gas Compressor station in Southeast Michigan. The company also required industrial and large business customers to temporarily curtail processes.

Even before the polar vortex hit, natural gas stocks for the week ending January 25 were 14 Bcf less than this time last year and 328 Bcf below the five-year average, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday.

Yet, natural gas futures prices for March have been dropping this week while many parts of the U.S. were experiencing the lowest temperatures in decades. As of 11:04 a.m. EST on Friday, natural gas prices were down 0.96 percent at $2.787 per million British thermal units (MBtu).

According to Reuters market analyst John Kemp, traders have been less concerned about natural gas stocks during the winter than they were between September and November, when the Henry Hub natural gas prices soared amid fears that stocks were too low going into the heating season.

The polar vortex is expected to be short-lived and so far, this winter has been warmer than average and about the same as last winter.
New York Freezes & Polar Vortex Aftermath Midwest (784)
Published on Feb 1, 2019 / 13:51
 

thorbiorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
If anyone is interested in following the situation in the Arctic including Greenland most of the information previously posted on the page of dmi.dk is now to be found on www.polarportal.dk Home: Polar Portal

This winter has been unusually dry and not much ice has accumulated, in fact many areas have lost ice since the beginning of the cold season. I assume this can be explained by sublimation, or the fact that ice which is frozen water may move directly to the state of water vapor without the need to melt first, the drier the air the more pronounced this effect is. To get an idea of the situation of the ice coverage have a look at this illustration:

Notice the rather low level of Ice accumulated since September. As the picture is embedded it may change, but at least those looking at the time of posting may have an idea.
On the map below one can see the extent of the sea ice and to get an idea of the trend one can click the animation too:

As one can read from the maps there is still an ice age in the Arctic, and it is far from being ice free.
 

thorbiorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
When I compare this picture of the situation for the Arctic Sea Ice from February 23rd, where 2019 is the "red operational line":

with this map of the accumulated anomaly for the ice sheet in Greenland:

then it appears that the sea ice is a bit higher than usual while the accumulated mass on the ice sheet is somewhat lower. While I don't know all the details the professional would present, a hypothesis could be that dry weather over Greenland also indicates less cloud cover because no warm humid air is moving into the area. If less cloud cover is also present over the Arctic Sea, then one may expect more loss of heat to cosmic space and therefore also slightly lower temperatures, similar to what we experience during a star lit winter night. Lower temperatures and calm winds over the sea would then lead to more water turning into ice.

Since we here in February have had quite warm temperatures for the season in Western Europe, I am wondering how this situation in the Artic / North Atlantic is going to develop later in Spring. One possibility is that there will be a sharp contrast between cold Arctic air and warm humid air in the south which would lead to good amounts of precipitation. We will see.
 

Pierre

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If less cloud cover is also present over the Arctic Sea, then one may expect more loss of heat to cosmic space and therefore also slightly lower temperatures, similar to what we experience during a star lit winter night.
Indeed, when there is no cloud, during the night there is more thermic restitution from the planet . However, clouds have a net cooling effect. So, a dry weather (no cloud) would tend to raise surface temperatures, mostly because of the increased solar heating during daytime.
 

thorbiorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
So, a dry weather (no cloud) would tend to raise surface temperatures, mostly because of the increased solar heating during daytime.
During the Arctic Winter in the far North, if it is dry there will be only limited effect of the Sun during "day time", because the Sun is below the horizon or very low in the sky the whole "day". This is very strange and perhaps even difficult to imagine, if one has not experienced it. To get an idea of the effect one can enter Day and Night World Map and move the time back and forth a few weeks or months. Here is picture of the situation right now:

If the shades in the above picture are puzzling for some, then consider this


Notice if you go back to the world map that near the North Pole there is now a kind of 24 hour twilight. This twilight is a the moment a nautical twilight, meaning the Sun is between 6 and 12 degrees below the horizon all "day". What does this mean for the temperatures?

If one looks up the climate for say Svalbard, an island located in the far North Atlantic, right above Norway, then the temperatures in March are comparable to those of January and February, even though the Sun is rising and getting higher by the day. One may explain this observation from a middle latitude experience if one has noticed that the temperatures during the winter can be even lower after the Sun has risen, because the balance between incoming heat and outgoing heat is still negative.

While looking up the above details, I found another map the gives the extent of the sea ice in the arctic along with the temperature of the ice,. On Sea Ice Temperature: Polar Portal one can scroll back in time to follow how the situation has developed. Below is the present situation:


It appears that we here at the end of February still need a few ice breakers or better a good u-boat to cross the sea above Russia and Canada.
 

romochar

Jedi Master
In the Laurentians, north of Montreal, febuary 26, 2019. Nobody has seen this here ever in their lifetime.
Reminescent of 2008 (11 year solar cycle?) but more troubling with at least six more weeks of solid winter to come! In 1998 ( close to the 11 year cycle again) we had a major blackout when the Hydro Québec grid crashed, and millions were without electricity for up to 6 weeks in the dead of winter. January 1998 North American ice storm - Wikipedia

View from my partner's recording studio window, on the main floor after clearing some of the roof today.

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Clearing the roof(s) because many have crashed in our area. Even though the house is brand new, my friend who is a fireman and his colleagues have been called daily and nightly to inspect old houses literrally about to crumble under the weight of the layers of ice and snow. We had started experiencing plumbing and air flow problems sor we went for it and as you saw in the first picture, our problems are not over yet for this winter...

In our minds, new technologies will be rolled out, and made more available at reasonable cost very quickly. We already install heated floors for bathrooms and ceramic tile floors. But soon we may need heated roofs, (or very expensive metal roofs (traditional here) to protect from what's coming! And it seems to be coming at a fierce pace.



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Night shot of our elevated back garden patio, whose floor is 5 feet (2.3 m) above the ground.
Best of luck to all! Best to be prepared than sorry. Most people here have wood stoves/ fireplaces just in case. And it is a very important reason why my partner and I moved out to the Laurentians from the big city last year. It's the best move we ever made!
Yet this in only the DAY BEFORE TOMMOROW... :-)
 

angelburst29

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Two new icebergs have broken off the Grey Glacier in Chile's Patagonia in recent weeks, amid fears that such ruptures are becoming more frequent, scientists told Reuters.

Fresh iceberg ruptures in Chile's Patagonia raise alarm
Two new icebergs are seen after breaking off from the Grey glacier in Patagonia, Chile March 9, 2019. Picture taken March 9, 2019.  Ricardo Jana/Courtesy of Chilean Antarctic Institute (INACH)/Handout via REUTERS


The breaks, which occurred on Feb. 20 and March 7, came after a larger block of ice the size of three soccer fields, (380 meters (1,247 feet) by 350 meters, separated from the glacier, which sits in a glacial lake in Torres del Paine National Park in southern Chile, in November 2017.


The most significant rupture to the glacier before that was recorded in the early 1990s. Scientists link the increased frequency of breaks to rising temperatures.

“There is a greater frequency in the occurrence of break-off in this east side of the glacier and more data is required to assess its stability,” said Ricardo Jana, researcher and member of the climate change area of the Chilean Antarctic Institute (INACH).

In recent days, “temperature rises above the normal average and intense rainfall were registered together with an increase in water level in the lake, factors that could explain the separation,” he added.

Researchers from universities in Germany and Brazil, together with experts from INACH and other local entities, have been studying the Grey Glacier since 2015 under an international cooperation program.

In December of this year, Chile will host the United Nations climate change summit, COP 25.
 

thorbiorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
On SVS: Arctic Sea Ice Maximum 2019 they write:
After growing through the fall and winter, sea ice in the Arctic appears to have reached its annual maximum extent. The 2019 wintertime extent ties with 2007’s as the 7th smallest extent of winter sea ice in the satellite record, according to scientists at the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA.

On March 13, the extent of the Arctic sea ice cover peaked at 5.71 million square miles (14.78 million square kilometers). This winter’s maximum extent is 332,000 square miles (860,000 square kilometers) below the 1981 to 2010 average maximum – equivalent to missing an area of ice larger than the state of Texas.
See also the video:
and the map and graph from Polar Portal
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In Greenland the accumulation of ice during the winter has been low according to Polar Portal. Red indicates lost surface mass, blue is gain.
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The blue line has been in the lows all winter and the distance to the average has been growing. Even with moderate melt in summer it will most likely end up with a net loss.

Still the ice at the North Pole has not melted:
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And the thickness of the ice:
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goyacobol

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
In Mammoth, the snow is so deep residents must tunnel out. There’s a history to that

By February, the snow made many neighborhoods here feel subterranean.
Twenty-foot walls of white, corniced by the wind, leaned over the plowed roads. Residents worked feverishly to keep the snow from swallowing their homes. They dug tunnels and narrow passageways to the street, opened portals to get light through second-story windows, shoveled dangerous weight off their roofs.

Unoccupied homes were so buried that a child might unknowingly sled down one. On still nights, when the wind stopped and the plows had passed, the silence was absolute. Only the streetlights and spirals of smoke from unseen chimneys suggested human life.
This year’s record-setting February and continued storms have reconnected residents to a historic rite of passage in California’s highest town, a place that largely came to be because of its monumental snowfall.

Brenda McCann had gone through the many harsh Mammoth snowfalls since her first autumn here in 1998, when four feet fell in two days at Thanksgiving. The old-timers called her neighborhood of Old Mammoth “Moleville” because of its propensity to get buried, turning homes into burrows.
The long drought began to make those eerie winters feel distant, a fading quirk of a town just five hours from Los Angeles that regularly made winters in Buffalo look moderate.
But the heavy snows of 2017 brought back memories. Many homeowners were unprepared, and roofs collapsed.
This winter, the town was ready, as 17 feet of snow landed in February, with more storms following in March.
“My whole house is encased in snow,” said McCann, 54, last week. “I’m in an igloo.”

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While her house sits a good four feet above her driveway, she had to climb five feet over a frozen berm to get out, until she had someone plow it away. In the backyard, the snow rises straight up over the two-story roof of her next-door neighbor.
“I’ve seen a lot of dogs on roofs this winter.”
During and after white-out days, people spend so much time shoveling, blowing, shoveling, that their backs wince and their abs feel like they’d done a couple hundred sit-ups. Members come into the gym where McCann works, they say, “I worked out all day, I just need the Jacuzzi.”
One of her friends, who had moved back to Mammoth in summer after many years away, told her: “I’m outta here. Now I remember why I moved away in the first place.”
The sheer volume of the snow creates a logistical puzzle. Where to put it?
The town’s public works crews and the California Department of Transportation use large ribbon-bladed blowers to shoot it up on hills between homes, where it builds until it looms over the roads like a wave ready to take a ship down. Dump trucks haul the rest to a site down Highway 203, where it’s bulldozed off the side of the mesa.
From the huge ski operations on the mountain to town hall to condo complexes to small cabins and trailer homes, the urgent matter day and night has been “snow management.”
“People can’t understand this type of snow,” said Grady Dutton, the town’s public works director. “Fifty-three feet fell at the top of the mountain.”

During storms, his crews hack away at it 24 hours a day. County employees scrape 104 miles of street with seven plows and five massive Kodiak snowblowers, delivering the snow to scattered spots and the “snow pit” off the mesa. “We have a good idea of every nook and cranny in town,” Dutton said.
The machinery keeps the resort town functioning at the height of the ski season.

 

thorbiorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Sorry, but I don't believe NASA's cooked data.
In this post I will try to analyse the maps of Greenland showing ice accumulation, ice melt and relate it to what I could find out about the behaviour of ice and water in cold climates in order to see if NASA is doing any ice cooking, or if a devil is hidden in the details. The post is quite long, but at least I got to a point, where some questions can be asked about the validity of the data.

When I posted, what I was wondering the most about, but did not question further, was the model showing a disappearance of the ice sheet since September 1st, that is during the winter season.

If one goes to Surface Conditions: Polar Portal one can scroll on a slide and see the development since September. Notice that around October 1st there is not much red and that there has been hardly any melting all winter. So how did the red colour, or the loss of ice from the ice sheet occur? What were the causative factors?
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A lack of snow fall over Greenland if true could be explained, if the humid air from the south encountered cold air at a lower lattitude. Since people have reported heavy snow fall in Canada, this may indeed be a possibility.

A disappearing of the ice sheet mass without melting, could also be explained by sublimation, the transition of ice to water vapor without the intermidiate phase of liquid water. The correctness of the map would then be a matter of the correctness of the model and the research at the base of the model. I do not know much about this field of ice sublimation and tried to look for research, but it is not so easy to come by. The papers that score highest on scholar.google.com are not that recent either. One abstract from 2001 has:
Greenland Climate Network (GC‐Net) surface meteorological observations are used to estimate net surface water vapor flux at ice sheet sites. Results from aerodynamic profile methods are compared with eddy correlation and evaporation pan measurements. Two profile method types are applied to hourly data sets spanning 1995.4 to 2000.4. One method type is shown to accurately gauge sublimation using two humidity and wind speed measurement levels. The other “bulk” method type is shown to underestimate condensation, as it assumes surface saturation. General climate models employ bulk methods and, consequently, underestimate deposition. Loss of water vapor by the surface predominates in summer at lower elevations, where bulk methods agree better with two‐level methods. Annual net water vapor flux from the two‐level method is as great as −87±27 mm at 960 m elevation and −74±23 mm at equilibrium line altitude in western Greenland. At an undulation trough site, net deposition is observed (+40 mm ±12). At the adjacent crest site 6 km away and at 50 m higher elevation, net sublimation predominates. At high‐elevation sites, the annual water vapor flux is positive, up to +32±9 mm at the North Greenland Ice core Project (NGRIP) and +6±2 mm at Summit. Sublimation is mapped using trend surface fits to calculated sublimation in terms of elevation and latitude. The resulting ice sheet total sublimation is −0.62 ± 0.25 × 10^14 kg yr−1 for the two‐level profile method and −1.2 ± 0.65 × 10^14 kg yr−1 for the one‐level method, indicating 12% or 23% precipitation loss, respectively.
In other words if 77% to 88 % of the precipitation in their set up was not lost due to sublimation. If it was lost, it could be because of glacier movement or melting. Notice in the above abstract, admittedly from 2001, that one model commonly used then, underestimated deposition. One wonders which models they use at NASA?

With the studies on sublimation in Greenland being unavailable or limited, I turned to Antarctica where Japanese researchers on the location near 70°41′57″S 44°16′45″E at an altitude of 2000 meters made real life measurements in the 1970'ies. One abstract from https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2006JF000580 has:
Three methods were used to determine the sublimation and condensation at Mizuho Station in 1977–1978, that is, direct observations with an evaporimeter filled with ice and repeated measurements of offset stakes and indirect estimation using an empirical formula derived from meteorological parameters. A comparison of three methods shows satisfactory agreement, especially in the weekly average of sublimation in the 1977–1978 summer, while condensation is insignificantly small. Condensation prevailed from the middle of April to the middle of September and sublimation in the remainder of 1977. The annual amounts of condensation and sublimation in 1977 are estimated to be 0.6 g cm−2 and 5.4 g cm−2, respectively. The daily amount of sublimation showed its maximum of 92 mg cm−2 on December 22, 1977, at the summer solstice. The annual amount of sublimation much affected the annual net accumulation of 5.8 g. The sublimation and condensation contributed in the formation of glazed surface consisting of multilayered ice crusts. This glazed surface is representative in the katabatic wind region in Mizuho Plateau, and the structure of the ice crust reflects the mass balance due to sublimation and condensation on both sides of the crust. Sublimation rate varies with the direction of the sloping faces of sastrugi, being the maximum on the north‐facing slope, which receives the maximum solar radiation.
The Japanese did small experiments, but they say that sublimation at their location is dominant for 7 months and condensation for 5 months. They also say that sublimation is the more important factor.

The lattitude of the Mizuho station corresponds to the upper half of Greenland. Since September there has not been much sunlight in this region, which according to the Japanese study would increase sublimation. If one distributes seven month, the figure the Japanese arrived at, around solstice, then sublimation should be insignificant in northern Greenland from mid October to early March. Still if we look at the map pretending to show the accumulation of mass there is a negative value, marked pink or red for these areas, so what is happening? Is it due to melting going on? Here is a map of the current melting situation and diagramme showing the situation since September. The map does not show anything, but it goes with the diagram showing the trends since last Fall.
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Admitted there is a bit of melting in September, but then it is over, so what removed the ice from the ice sheet in the "red areas" especially the north, as shown in the previous map, where there was not only hardly any melting, but also little sunshine and we guess as a consequence little sublimation? Were there dry winds blowing over the ice sheet leading to increased sublimation or did the glaciers melt from below?

One problem is that we can not go to Greenland and make observations, and local people live near the coast, but if you meet someone from Greenland, here are some names of the glaciers: and ice flows from NYT KORT OVER INDLANDSISEN – Greenlandtoday

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From the colours we read that the ice is flowing , but in most places not quickly. The size of the Greenland ice sheet problem looks very large on a rectangular world map, but it is like the Northern Canadian islands according to New Greenland Maps Show More Glaciers at Risk and on a globe Greenland is not as large as South America making the problem even smaller.
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From the topology of Greenland an interesting conclusion can be made. The presence of a large lake like area in the middle of Greenland surrounded on all sides by low to high mountains makes it likely that the central part of the Greenlandic glaciers are unlikely to just slide into the oceans and disappear, at least with the present rotational axis of the Earth. Perhaps one could even go as far, as to suggest that the very presence of the lake is an important reason there even are glaciers in Greenland. The lake protected by mountains would collect cold air falling down from the mountains. In Spring the thick ice on the lake and not moved by storms and ocean waves would just sit still while the high albedo of the ice would reflect sunlight thus preventing the ice on the lake from melting completely before Autumn. Does this hypothesis mean that the scare scenario of the Greenlandic ice melting is unlikely in any case?

Regarding Greenland and the data presented, we are scratching our heads, and so it seems are others. Here are some tweets I found via @PolarPortal In the first Tweet it is said that in spite of cold weather and storms the mass balance is well below average. Really?
And there was this also:
And if you wish to see what cold weather looks like in Northern Greenland, here is some surface data from Camp Century Camp Century Climate which shows that the relative humidity has been above 90 % since November.
And it is still cold over Greenland:
To sum this up: The loss of ice mass in Greenland this winter is hard to explain, or did NASA cook my ice? As we read in the tweets, some researchers are wondering too although they point to previous instances. With lack of access to all information and not knowing how models are designed and maps later coloured, is there much else to do than noting what the official sources including not only satellite but also surface instrument say and hold them up against what on the ground researchers see and write and then read between their lines to try and figure out what is happening? What I would like is for the researchers to spend some time explaining how the loss of mass in a cold winter like this takes place. What are the mechanics? On what math are the models based? Do their models really match reality better than, to make a comparison, some of the politically motivated conclusions prevalent in the US that have led to wars and scandals for really no good reason except the need for money and control.

From a political point of view I can understand why it would be very much needed to prove the ice sheet over Greenland is disappearing. Last summer was cold and last year: September 2017 to the end of August 2018 actually saw an acknowledge increase in the mass of ice. At the same time every ton of ice lost over Green-land is worth many, many $ and Euros in "Green" projects while ice gained or even stable on the ice sheet is bad news for those earning careers, generous subsidies and solid fortunes on its disappearance. The UN would loose face and so would countless politicians and scientists across the world.
 

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