The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!


Polar vortex claims eight lives as US cold snap continues

At least eight people have died in the US Midwest as the region shivers in the grip of its worst cold snap in decades.

An Iowa student found dead outside a college building is among victims of the deadly freeze.

Hospitals have been treating patients reporting frostbite as life across a swathe of the nation grinds to a halt.

The iciest blasts may still come on Thursday. Ninety million people - a third of the US - have seen temperatures of -17C (0F) or below.

Some 250 million Americans overall have experienced the "polar vortex" conditions, but southern states such as Florida have escaped the brutal chill.

How did the fatalities occur?
  • University of Iowa student Gerald Belz, 18, was found unresponsive behind a campus building before dawn on Wednesday and later died in hospital. Officials said weather was a factor. His father told local news channel KCRG that Gerald was a "mama's boy with a tough exterior".
  • A 70-year-old man in Detroit, Michigan, was found dead in front of a neighbour's home on Wednesday
  • Another Michigan man in his 70s was found frozen to death in his neighbourhood. Officials said he was "inadequately dressed for the weather" and was probably disoriented
  • On Tuesday, 55-year-old Charley Lampley froze to death in a garage in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, having "apparently collapsed after shovelling snow", according to a medical examiner
  • An 82-year-old man in Pekin, Illinois, died from hypothermia after apparently falling outside his home on Tuesday
  • A 75-year-old man was fatally struck by a snow plough near Chicago on Monday. The driver has since been placed on paid leave pending an investigation, according to WGN9 News
  • In northern Indiana, a young couple died after a collision on icy roads
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According to the US National Weather Service, temperatures plunged as low as -48.3 degrees in northern Illinois.

Jan. 31, 2019 - Polar vortex descends on US Midwest bringing bone-chilling arctic cold (Photos)

Polar vortex descends on US Midwest bringing bone-chilling arctic cold

A deadly arctic deep freeze enveloped the US Midwest with record-breaking temperatures, triggering widespread closures of schools and businesses. According to the US National Weather Service, temperatures plunged as low as -48.3 degrees in northern Illinois, -37.2 degrees in the central part of the state and -31.6 degrees in southern Illinois. According to the Flightaware flight tracking website, snowfalls caused a flurry of cancellations and delays at Chicago's two major airports. US Postal Service had to take the rare step of suspending mail delivery service to a wide swath of the region. See the images of how residents are weathering the arctic cold.


Records have been shattered as the polar vortex unleashed the harshest cold in years on the midwestern United States during the final days of January.

Jan. 31, 2019 - By the numbers: Midwestern US endures worst of polar vortex, all-time record lows broken

By the numbers: Midwestern US endures worst of polar vortex, all-time record lows broken

After the polar vortex plunged southward, temperatures plummeted under 20 below zero F from North Dakota to northern Illinois during the morning hours of both Wednesday and Thursday.

The low of 38 below zero recorded at Mt. Carroll, Illinois, is being reviewed by a state climate extremes committee to determine if the Illinois state record low was broken on Thursday morning. The current record is 36 below zero that was set near Congerville on Jan. 5, 1999.

Biting winds made the extreme cold more life-threatening as AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures dropped under 50 below zero. Frostbite can occur in mere minutes on exposed skin in these conditions.


Midwest extreme cold by the numbers


-77˚F
Lowest AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperature, recorded at Thief River Falls, Minnesota, on Tuesday evening.

-56˚F
The lowest actual temperature recorded in Cotton, Minnesota, on Thursday morning.

-38˚F
Low temperature recorded at Mt. Carroll, Illinois, on Thursday morning. If deemed accurate, it would be the new Illinois state record low.

8 hours
Consecutive hours of RealFeel® Temperatures under 65 below zero F in Grand Forks, North Dakota, on Tuesday.

-23˚F
Record low in Chicago on Wednesday morning, the lowest since the mid-1980s.

15 times
That temperatures have been at or under 21 below zero F in Chicago since records began in the 1870s.

14 hours
Consecutive hours of RealFeel® Temperatures under 50 below zero F in Minneapolis Tuesday evening and night.

1996
The last time temperatures were this low in Minneapolis. The city recorded a low of 28 below zero F on Wednesday morning.

94 degrees
Temperature difference between morning lows at Key West, Florida, and Key West, Iowa, on Wednesday.

9 states
In the Midwest and New England that recorded a temperature under 14 below zero (the low in Utqiagvik/Barrow, Alaska) on Thursday morning. These states were North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and New Hampshire.
All-time record lows broken on Thursday morning


-33˚F
Moline, Illinois (Previous record: 27 below zero from Jan. 16, 2009)

-30˚F
Cedar Rapids, Iowa (Previous record: 29 below zero from Jan. 15, 2009)

-30˚F
Rockford, Illinois (Previous record: 27 below zero from Jan. 10, 1982)
Sampling of daily record lows set on Thursday morning

New record
Previous record (Year)
Infogram logo


The intense lake-effect snow machine that has buried communities under feet of snow and created extremely difficult travel will persist into Thursday night.

January 31, 2019 - Great Lakes communities to be further buried by deadly lake-effect snow into Thursday night (Video)

Great Lakes communities to be further buried by deadly lake-effect snow into Thursday night

The harshest air yet this winter caused snow showers and squalls to stream off the Great Lakes around the middle of the week.

At least three fatalities have been reported in Erie County, New York, during the storm, according to officials.

Buffalo, New York, was hit hard by a persistent lake-effect band on Wednesday, with visibility reduced to one-quarter mile or less for nearly eight consecutive hours at the international airport. Visibility was as low as one-sixteenth of a mile at times.
Most arrival and departure flights from Buffalo Niagara International Airport were canceled or delayed, according to The Buffalo News.

The airport has received more than 20 inches of snow since Tuesday. The 13.6 inches that fell alone on Wednesday set a new daily snowfall record.

Multi-vehicle accidents shut down portions of Interstate 190 and the New York State Thruway on Wednesday. The City of Buffalo issued a travel ban until 7 a.m. EST Thursday.
Additional disruptions to travel and daily routines are anticipated into Thursday night across parts of western New York. Several inches can fall within one hour.

By the time the snow winds down early Friday, the region can be buried by 2-4 feet of snow with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 6 feet.

As the lake-effect shuts off, a separate area of snow will sweep across the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic at the end of the week.
 
Oookay (this belongs here)...

Elizabeth Warren Uses Coldest ‘Polar Vortex’ In Decades To Call For ‘Green New Deal’ To Fight Global Warming

This should all work out swimmingly.


From The Daily Caller


Michael Bastasch | Energy Editor


Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren used the bitter cold sweeping the Midwest and Northeast to announce her full-throated support for a “Green New Deal.”

“Our children & grandchildren should grow up in a world where they can breathe the air & drink the water – and go outside without risking their lives in extreme temperatures,” the Democrat tweeted Thursday using the hashtag #PolarVortex2019.

The “polar vortex” event refers to an atmospheric phenomenon that’s brought extreme, record-breaking cold to millions of Americans, with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit below zero and wind chill down in the negative 50s and 60s. It’s the coldest weather many states have seen in decades, meteorologists say.

For example, Chicago hit negative 23 degrees Fahrenheit, which is the coldest since 1985. Mount Carroll, Illinois, recorded negative 38 degrees, which, if certified, would be the coldest temperature recorded in the state.

It’s time to protect our planet & pass a Green New Deal,” said Warren, who’s considering running for president in 2020.


U.S. Senator Warren is joined by her husband Bruce and dog Bailey as she speaks to reporters in Cambridge


U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren is joined by her husband Bruce Mann and their dog Bailey as she speaks to reporters, after announcing she has formed an exploratory committee to run for president in 2020, outside her home in Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S., Dec. 31, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

The implication is that global warming is behind the record cold that’s forced factories to shut down, schools to close and taxed natural gas supplies across the country. Some climate scientists promote this theory, but many more disagree and see little to no data to back it up.

“The bottom line is that folks claiming that cold waves are increasing in the U.S. are ignoring observations and the peer-reviewed literature that state the opposite,” University of Washington climate scientist Cliff Mass told The Daily Caller News Foundation on Tuesday. :-D

This is the first time Warren endorsed a “Green New Deal.” The 2020 hopeful’s staff previously said she endorsed the “idea” of a “Green New Deal.” Other 2020 Democratic hopefuls, including Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Cory Booker of New Jersey endorsed the proposal.

New York Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the main proponent of a “Green New Deal” and is set to unveil legislative text as soon as next week. While the details are sparse, a “Green New Deal” calls for the U.S. to abandon fossil fuels within 10 years, federal job guarantees and universal health care.

That may be a hard sell as millions of Americans rely on coal and natural gas to keep the lights on while renewable energy sources, like wind and solar, provide only a fraction of energy demand amid the record cold.

Coal and natural gas provided about 75 percent of the Midwest’s electricity during the ongoing cold snap as of Thursday afternoon, according to the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which oversees the region’s grid.

PJM Interconnection data for the Mid-Atlantic show coal and natural gas provided 68 percent of the electricity as temperatures plunged Thursday. Nuclear power also carried a major load, generating 26 percent of the region’s power.
 
At this time in the South Alps of France it's raining up to 2 200 meters (around 6 500 feet high)...
 
The Midwest, from the Dakotas to Western New York, is experiencing some of the coldest temperatures to hit the region in more than two decades, according to The Weather Channel — and the lake is feeling the effects.

Feb. 1, 2019 - Lake Michigan Has Completely Frozen Over Amid Dangerous Temperatures — See the Incredible Photos

Lake Michigan Has Completely Frozen Over Amid Dangerous Temperatures — See the Incredible Photos
A frozen Lake Michigan in front of the Chicago skyline


As wind chill temperatures in Chicago dropped as low as -51 degrees Farenheit on Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service, parts of Lake Michigan turned to ice.

Residents across Michigan, Chicago and Wisconsin braved the cold to share their photos of the icy lake to social media.

On Wednesday morning, it was -23 degrees Farenheit in Chicago, and the National Weather Service recorded -30 in Wisconsin. The negative temps extend as far south as Kentucky, and according to The Weather Channel, things won’t get milder until the weekend.

Lake Michigan from Kenosha, Wisconsin

On Instagram, users posted photos from Grand Haven, Michigan, and Holland, Michigan.
 
In case you were wondering about the genesis of the infamous IPCC, it was spearheaded by Thatcher in the 1980's in order to weaken the coal union. Talk about an impartial organization!

Thatcher went on to found the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research and gave early direction to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to elevate the issue at home and abroad. She held a press conference upon the release of the first IPCC assessment (1990) and warned that “greenhouse gases … will warm the Earth’s surface with serious consequences for us all.”
...

What was behind Thatcher’s “conversion experience” to climate alarmism in 1988? Part of the answer was the pressure she received from her advisors John Houghton and Sir Crispin Tickell, who were in step with the emerging environmental movement. Also, global warming was an issue that provided her with enhanced international prestige.


But perhaps most important was her vigorous battle against the nationalized, unionized coal-mining sector, the leadership of which was socialistic at heart and determined to break her reform agenda.


The memories of Arthur Scargill of the National Union of Mineworkers using thuggery against strike breakers in the long months of 1984–85, and her preference for nuclear power to generate electricity, undoubtedly made her welcome an environmental issue that would help cut coal down to size.


Natural gas from the North Sea, too, was poised to replace coal and significantly reduce CO2 emission rates in electricity generation. It would have been undoubtedly different for the Prime Minister had carbon-emission reductions not been an affordable option for the U.K

Full article here
 
Chicago - A life-threatening deep freeze gripped the American Midwest on Wednesday as weather colder than Antarctica grounded flights, disrupted travel and brought life to a standstill for tens of millions.

Feb. 1, 2019 - Colder than Antarctica: brutal deep freeze grips US Midwest

Colder than Antarctica: brutal deep freeze grips US Midwest

America's third city Chicago -- where the morning temperature was -22 degrees Fahrenheit (-30 Celsius), which felt like -50 degrees (-46 Celsius) with wind chill -- was colder than Alaska's state capital and even colder than parts of Antarctica.

More than 1,500 flights were canceled in the city's two major airports while rail operator Amtrak scrapped train services from its Chicago hub.

The US Postal Service -- known for its commitment to bringing the mail whatever the weather -- suspended deliveries in parts of Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, the Dakotas and Nebraska.

The cause of the sub-zero chill was a swirl of arctic air that broke away from the polar vortex that usually encircles the North Pole.

"A record arctic air mass will remain over the central and eastern US over the next several days," the National Weather Service said.

"Wind chill values of 30 to 60 degrees below zero will be common across the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and upper Midwest."


A massive cavity that’s two-thirds as large as Manhattan is expanding below an Antarctic glacier, according to a “disturbing” discovery revealed through a recent NASA-led study.

January 31, 2019 - NASA Discovers a ‘Disturbing’ 1,000-Foot-Tall Cavity Under a Glacier in Antarctica

NASA Discovers a ‘Disturbing’ 1,000-Foot-Tall Cavity Under a Glacier in Antarctica

Researchers, who have long suspected a cavity between the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica and the underlying bedrock, used ice-penetrating radar and new satellites capable of high-resolution data to study the glacier more closely. They found a cavity 1,000-feet tall that was “big enough to have contained 14 billion tons of ice—and most of that ice melted over the last three years.”

“[The size of] a cavity under a glacier plays an important role in melting,” the study’s lead author, Pietro Milillo of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said in a news release about the study. “As more heat and water get under the glacier, it melts faster.”

JPL said that the findings “highlight the need for detailed observations of Antarctic glaciers’ undersides in calculating how fast global sea levels will rise in response to climate change.”

The Thwaites Glacier, which is about the size of Florida, has been responsible for about 4% of the rise in sea levels so far, still holds enough ice to raise the world ocean a little over 2 feet upon melting. It could also lead to melting in neighboring glaciers that could add another 8 feet to sea levels if they completely melted, JPL said.

Other recent studies have shown that sea levels are already rising as fast as they have in 2,800 years, and that oceans could rise twice as much this century as scientists had previously anticipated. Most of the melting so far has come from Arctic ice, which produces the equivalent of 14,000 tons per second of water into the oceans.


Cavity roughly two-thirds the size of Manhattan is growing under Thwaites, described by scientists as world's most dangerous glacier, per a NASA study.

January 31, 2019 - 'Dangerous' Antarctic glacier has a hole roughly two-thirds area of Manhattan, scientists warn

'Dangerous' Antarctic glacier has a hole roughly two-thirds area of Manhattan, scientists warn
This undated photo courtesy of NASA shows Thwaites Glacier in Western Antarctica.

This undated photo courtesy of NASA shows Thwaites Glacier in Western Antarctica

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Weather forecasts on Friday showed Northern and Western Europe are set for a weekend of cold and snow, with some parts expected to experience temperatures as low as 12C below average.

Feb. 1, 2019 - Big freeze: Cold weather and snow to sweep Western Europe this weekend

Big freeze: Cold weather and snow to sweep western Europe this weekend

Saturday afternoon looked set to bring a cold front in countries including Portugal, Spain, France, Ireland, the UK, Benelux and Scandinavia, according to data compiled by weather blog Tropical Tidbits.

A map of temperature anomalies — which shows the difference with baseline temperatures recorded between 1981 and 2010 — revealed that parts of Spain, Scotland and Scandinavia would see the mercury drop up to 12C below average over the weekend and into Monday.

But the chill looked like it would be milder than the polar vortex which engulfed large swathes of North America this week, claiming the lives of at least 21 people. Temperatures in Cotton, Minnesota, for instance, went as low as -48C on Thursday. In Chicago, it reached -30C.

Still, forecasts predicted over the coming three days temperatures in parts of Norway and Finland would plummet to between -17 and -22C. In Scotland they would fall below zero into the double digits and Spaniards would face temperatures as low as -4C.

Britain's Met Office also issued a yellow warning for Saturday and on Monday an alert for snow and ice. In France, meteorologists predict snowfalls in areas from 700 m altitude.


Tropical Tidbits forecasted that some of the most abundant snowfalls would be across the Alps and Pyrenees mountain ranges, as well as in Finland although most of the West European region would be impacted.
 
2-3 minute Read Feb 01, 2019, 6:00 PM CST
Natural gas and electricity networks in the United States have proved resilient during the polar vortex this week, while natural gas futures prices even dropped during one of the coldest snaps in the Midwest in decades.

The natural gas and electric systems across the U.S. have been under less pressure compared to the previous polar vortex in 2014.

PJM Interconnection, the electric grid operator for all or parts of 13 states from New Jersey to Illinois, has reported no realibility issues so far.

Natural gas use in the United States hit a record on Wednesday, according to estimates by financial data provider Refinitiv, quoted by Reuters.

Some utilities have urged their customers to voluntarily reduce gas use. Consumers Energy of Michigan urged on Wednesday customers to voluntarily cut gas use as a result of an unexpected incident at a Gas Compressor station in Southeast Michigan. The company also required industrial and large business customers to temporarily curtail processes.

Even before the polar vortex hit, natural gas stocks for the week ending January 25 were 14 Bcf less than this time last year and 328 Bcf below the five-year average, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday.

Yet, natural gas futures prices for March have been dropping this week while many parts of the U.S. were experiencing the lowest temperatures in decades. As of 11:04 a.m. EST on Friday, natural gas prices were down 0.96 percent at $2.787 per million British thermal units (MBtu).

According to Reuters market analyst John Kemp, traders have been less concerned about natural gas stocks during the winter than they were between September and November, when the Henry Hub natural gas prices soared amid fears that stocks were too low going into the heating season.

The polar vortex is expected to be short-lived and so far, this winter has been warmer than average and about the same as last winter.

New York Freezes & Polar Vortex Aftermath Midwest (784)
Published on Feb 1, 2019 / 13:51
 
If anyone is interested in following the situation in the Arctic including Greenland most of the information previously posted on the page of dmi.dk is now to be found on www.polarportal.dk Home: Polar Portal

This winter has been unusually dry and not much ice has accumulated, in fact many areas have lost ice since the beginning of the cold season. I assume this can be explained by sublimation, or the fact that ice which is frozen water may move directly to the state of water vapor without the need to melt first, the drier the air the more pronounced this effect is. To get an idea of the situation of the ice coverage have a look at this illustration:
SMB_combine_SM_acc_DK_20190211.png

Notice the rather low level of Ice accumulated since September. As the picture is embedded it may change, but at least those looking at the time of posting may have an idea.
On the map below one can see the extent of the sea ice and to get an idea of the trend one can click the animation too:
SICE_combine_extent_SM_EN.png

As one can read from the maps there is still an ice age in the Arctic, and it is far from being ice free.
 
When I compare this picture of the situation for the Arctic Sea Ice from February 23rd, where 2019 is the "red operational line":
SICE_curve_extent_LA_EN_20190223.png

with this map of the accumulated anomaly for the ice sheet in Greenland:
SMB_combine_SM_acc_EN_20190218.png

then it appears that the sea ice is a bit higher than usual while the accumulated mass on the ice sheet is somewhat lower. While I don't know all the details the professional would present, a hypothesis could be that dry weather over Greenland also indicates less cloud cover because no warm humid air is moving into the area. If less cloud cover is also present over the Arctic Sea, then one may expect more loss of heat to cosmic space and therefore also slightly lower temperatures, similar to what we experience during a star lit winter night. Lower temperatures and calm winds over the sea would then lead to more water turning into ice.

Since we here in February have had quite warm temperatures for the season in Western Europe, I am wondering how this situation in the Artic / North Atlantic is going to develop later in Spring. One possibility is that there will be a sharp contrast between cold Arctic air and warm humid air in the south which would lead to good amounts of precipitation. We will see.
 
If less cloud cover is also present over the Arctic Sea, then one may expect more loss of heat to cosmic space and therefore also slightly lower temperatures, similar to what we experience during a star lit winter night.
Indeed, when there is no cloud, during the night there is more thermic restitution from the planet . However, clouds have a net cooling effect. So, a dry weather (no cloud) would tend to raise surface temperatures, mostly because of the increased solar heating during daytime.
 
So, a dry weather (no cloud) would tend to raise surface temperatures, mostly because of the increased solar heating during daytime.
During the Arctic Winter in the far North, if it is dry there will be only limited effect of the Sun during "day time", because the Sun is below the horizon or very low in the sky the whole "day". This is very strange and perhaps even difficult to imagine, if one has not experienced it. To get an idea of the effect one can enter Day and Night World Map and move the time back and forth a few weeks or months. Here is picture of the situation right now:
sunmap.php

If the shades in the above picture are puzzling for some, then consider this
twiligh-phases.png


Notice if you go back to the world map that near the North Pole there is now a kind of 24 hour twilight. This twilight is a the moment a nautical twilight, meaning the Sun is between 6 and 12 degrees below the horizon all "day". What does this mean for the temperatures?

If one looks up the climate for say Svalbard, an island located in the far North Atlantic, right above Norway, then the temperatures in March are comparable to those of January and February, even though the Sun is rising and getting higher by the day. One may explain this observation from a middle latitude experience if one has noticed that the temperatures during the winter can be even lower after the Sun has risen, because the balance between incoming heat and outgoing heat is still negative.

While looking up the above details, I found another map the gives the extent of the sea ice in the arctic along with the temperature of the ice,. On Sea Ice Temperature: Polar Portal one can scroll back in time to follow how the situation has developed. Below is the present situation:
Map_IST_SM_DK_20190224.png


It appears that we here at the end of February still need a few ice breakers or better a good u-boat to cross the sea above Russia and Canada.
 
In the Laurentians, north of Montreal, febuary 26, 2019. Nobody has seen this here ever in their lifetime.
Reminescent of 2008 (11 year solar cycle?) but more troubling with at least six more weeks of solid winter to come! In 1998 ( close to the 11 year cycle again) we had a major blackout when the Hydro Québec grid crashed, and millions were without electricity for up to 6 weeks in the dead of winter. January 1998 North American ice storm - Wikipedia

View from my partner's recording studio window, on the main floor after clearing some of the roof today.

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Clearing the roof(s) because many have crashed in our area. Even though the house is brand new, my friend who is a fireman and his colleagues have been called daily and nightly to inspect old houses literrally about to crumble under the weight of the layers of ice and snow. We had started experiencing plumbing and air flow problems sor we went for it and as you saw in the first picture, our problems are not over yet for this winter...

In our minds, new technologies will be rolled out, and made more available at reasonable cost very quickly. We already install heated floors for bathrooms and ceramic tile floors. But soon we may need heated roofs, (or very expensive metal roofs (traditional here) to protect from what's coming! And it seems to be coming at a fierce pace.



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Night shot of our elevated back garden patio, whose floor is 5 feet (2.3 m) above the ground.
Best of luck to all! Best to be prepared than sorry. Most people here have wood stoves/ fireplaces just in case. And it is a very important reason why my partner and I moved out to the Laurentians from the big city last year. It's the best move we ever made!
Yet this in only the DAY BEFORE TOMMOROW... :-)
 
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