Skyalmian
Jedi Council Member
As am I, and not worried.
What is coming, Cascadia quake …
- Thread starter Haiku
- Start date
Haiku
Jedi Master
Cascadia update: July 23, 2022 …
Here is the latest on the trigger area of this event, Hollister. I have a picture of all earthquakes in the local area for the last year of time. As you can see this area looks like it is primed for release. But if you notice the major fault line, San Andreas fault, kind of stopped it activity north of the area in question. The Hayward and Calaveras fault lines seems to be taking all of the displacement energy from Hollister and north of it. This is putting undue stress on the San Andreas fault line. The good news, if that could actually be used here, there has not been too many larger quakes, that being more than 4.0.
This I would consider is an increase of earthquakes since the first of the year, as suggested by the C’s. This could be exponentially more in the future, that we will have to wait and see.
Hollister, Fair activity. Palo Alto, minimal activity. Imperial, large amount of activity around this area + a mud volcano to the south. Ukiah, scattered activity (nothing larger than 3.0). Eureka, way past the point of being ready (this area is ready to blow). Point Mendocino, very minimal activity. Monterrey, activity out in ocean/minimal activity. Offshore San Luis Obispo, very low activity. Capistrano, large amount of activity north of area/nothing larger than 4.0. Carmel: almost nothing for activity.
Areas of large concern in the last month starts with the Los Angeles/San Bernardino area and goes south and south-east over to the Salton Sea. Next is the area north of LA where it has been shaking still since their main event years ago. Then the large group around Mono Lake which is always seeing aggressive shaking (Caldera making noise). And more local to me is the geysers in Sonoma County where they are feeding underground steam fields with treated sewage water to keep them steaming. (Of note: Mt. Konocti, a mud volcano north of the steam fields, is seeing land sinking several homes in the area just south-east of the mountain. Old lava tubes are possibly collapsing? The mountain is not showing any other signs of abnormal activity.)
In conclusion, I expect that the activity that I am seeing is more than normal but obviously not enough to trigger this event. We are still in a holding pattern as I expect that this current earthquake activity will exponentially increase from where we are today. Still watching and waiting, Haiku …
Here is the latest on the trigger area of this event, Hollister. I have a picture of all earthquakes in the local area for the last year of time. As you can see this area looks like it is primed for release. But if you notice the major fault line, San Andreas fault, kind of stopped it activity north of the area in question. The Hayward and Calaveras fault lines seems to be taking all of the displacement energy from Hollister and north of it. This is putting undue stress on the San Andreas fault line. The good news, if that could actually be used here, there has not been too many larger quakes, that being more than 4.0.
This I would consider is an increase of earthquakes since the first of the year, as suggested by the C’s. This could be exponentially more in the future, that we will have to wait and see.
Hollister, Fair activity. Palo Alto, minimal activity. Imperial, large amount of activity around this area + a mud volcano to the south. Ukiah, scattered activity (nothing larger than 3.0). Eureka, way past the point of being ready (this area is ready to blow). Point Mendocino, very minimal activity. Monterrey, activity out in ocean/minimal activity. Offshore San Luis Obispo, very low activity. Capistrano, large amount of activity north of area/nothing larger than 4.0. Carmel: almost nothing for activity.
Areas of large concern in the last month starts with the Los Angeles/San Bernardino area and goes south and south-east over to the Salton Sea. Next is the area north of LA where it has been shaking still since their main event years ago. Then the large group around Mono Lake which is always seeing aggressive shaking (Caldera making noise). And more local to me is the geysers in Sonoma County where they are feeding underground steam fields with treated sewage water to keep them steaming. (Of note: Mt. Konocti, a mud volcano north of the steam fields, is seeing land sinking several homes in the area just south-east of the mountain. Old lava tubes are possibly collapsing? The mountain is not showing any other signs of abnormal activity.)
In conclusion, I expect that the activity that I am seeing is more than normal but obviously not enough to trigger this event. We are still in a holding pattern as I expect that this current earthquake activity will exponentially increase from where we are today. Still watching and waiting, Haiku …
Haiku
Jedi Master
Good Day to all of the woken believers out there. Just giving an earthquake update. I have one year of earthquakes shown on all of the images. As you can see things are getting more active this year with many groups of quakes rattling the areas. This one is of the central valley, I placed an ‘X’ at Hollister because you cannot see it very well from all the activity. There are still gaps showing in San Mateo and by Santa Cruz, build up points or just slow fault movements, I am not too sure.
This next one is of my local area, it has seen an increase in quakes and many of these local ones I felt. Now in this image you can see the group below Clear Lake, again this is because of geyser activity of man pumping treated waste water down on top of a hot plate below the ground. Personally I think that this is foolish as sooner or later it is going to hit a nerve down there and who knows what it will give back, I’m still awaiting the earths response.
This one is my favorite. Look at the gap between LA and the northern valleys. I see this a lot here, why, I couldn’t tell you. It is an area of heavy quake action when quakes hit. In 1983 Coalinga was hit with 6.2 and it just about leveled the town. Can’t imagine why. (Sarcasm)
Here is the greater LA basin. I have much concern and apprehension for this area as my wife has family members living in some of these worse quake areas.
This next one is the icing on the cake. It is the whole Cascadia area. I added an arrow to the image of where a sensor was lost a few years back. When they went to investigate they found the chain that was tied to it was now buried in a magma flow that cooled. Better hang on …
Remember, ‘In case of earthquake, run for cover before you Facebook about it. Haiku …
This next one is of my local area, it has seen an increase in quakes and many of these local ones I felt. Now in this image you can see the group below Clear Lake, again this is because of geyser activity of man pumping treated waste water down on top of a hot plate below the ground. Personally I think that this is foolish as sooner or later it is going to hit a nerve down there and who knows what it will give back, I’m still awaiting the earths response.
This one is my favorite. Look at the gap between LA and the northern valleys. I see this a lot here, why, I couldn’t tell you. It is an area of heavy quake action when quakes hit. In 1983 Coalinga was hit with 6.2 and it just about leveled the town. Can’t imagine why. (Sarcasm)
Here is the greater LA basin. I have much concern and apprehension for this area as my wife has family members living in some of these worse quake areas.
This next one is the icing on the cake. It is the whole Cascadia area. I added an arrow to the image of where a sensor was lost a few years back. When they went to investigate they found the chain that was tied to it was now buried in a magma flow that cooled. Better hang on …
Remember, ‘In case of earthquake, run for cover before you Facebook about it. Haiku …
BHelmet
The Living Force
“In 1983 Coalinga was hit with 6.2 and it just about leveled the town. Can’t imagine why. (Sarcasm)”
Truly hilarious on so many levels of dark and stanky humor.
…God tried and failed.
(That comment is only understandable if you have ever punched the accelerator up to 95mph on I-5, closed all the air vents and tried to hold your breath for the 7 or 8 minutes it takes to blast by at warp speed. You, see, there is a very sad but immense commercial feed lot there and the temperature goes above 100 in the summer producing the most intense and nauseating reek that is discernible a good mile and a half before you even get there.)
Add in the toxic waste dump in Kettleman City (nearby) and there’s another good reason for God to act.
To be fair, I did have to stop for gas once and ate at a taco truck that was only half bad. Iceberg lettuce on tacos adobado?
Truly hilarious on so many levels of dark and stanky humor.
…God tried and failed.
(That comment is only understandable if you have ever punched the accelerator up to 95mph on I-5, closed all the air vents and tried to hold your breath for the 7 or 8 minutes it takes to blast by at warp speed. You, see, there is a very sad but immense commercial feed lot there and the temperature goes above 100 in the summer producing the most intense and nauseating reek that is discernible a good mile and a half before you even get there.)
Add in the toxic waste dump in Kettleman City (nearby) and there’s another good reason for God to act.
To be fair, I did have to stop for gas once and ate at a taco truck that was only half bad. Iceberg lettuce on tacos adobado?
dennis
Dagobah Resident
Hope Ya'll are ok
Lots of aftershocks, likely damage
6.4 magnitude earthquake 12 km from Ferndale, California, United States
6.4 magnitude earthquake near Ferndale, California, United States and San Francisco, California, United States : December 20, 2022 10:34
15km WSW of Ferndale, CA - 6.4 EARTHQUAKE - Santa Rosa, Fairfield, Vallejo, Sacramento, Roseville, Richmond, Berkeley, Concord, San Francisco, Elk Grove, Oakland, Daly City, Antioch, Hayward, Fremont, and Stockton - 2022-12-20 10:34:24 UTC
Haiku
Jedi Master
Good day to everyone …
I have an update to present here on the wave structure that can result from the collapse of the Cascadia Fault Line.
I was sitting on the coast of northern California recently at the Klamath river in the town of Klamath. It’s pretty there with redwoods and sequoia’s all over the area with the sandy or rocky shoreline of the Pacific Ocean. Our camping site was about 15 feet above sea level which makes me a little hesitant just being there, but I survived. When Cascadia goes off, I’m sorry to say that this whole area is a goner. It gave me a real feel for this upcoming disaster.
So I shifted gears on this topic to evaluating the wave size and structure that could result from the collapse on this area of concern. The compiled image I have added here shows my estimates of this result. Most of this is estimations that I got from sea elevation data and volumetric reviews. Take it all with a grain of salt.
The black line is a tracing of the fault line from an image.
The red line is the perimeter estimation of the fault line area and the outflow of the water from the initial event. It demonstrates that the southern end of the wave may definitely be five to six time larger than the wave that will hit the northern end, the Canadian coastal areas. This is due to the volumes available. But that is just a start.
The green line showed the volumes of water in the said area in comparison to the total area. As you can see the deepest area is just north of the Oregon/Washington border, a narrower section of the fault area.
The blue line is my estimations of wave height resulting from all this information.
If this is a total collapse then I expect that this has the potential to be a 1000 foot wave ± 20%. But I don’t expect that this will be how it happens. Because of the external shape I figure that the initial wave will be limited due to the eastern and western edges of the fault zone slamming into each other temporarily stopping the collapse. This in effect should truncate the volume of the initial wave to 60% ±20% of its maximum with the largest part of the wave being right at Portland.
Now Portland Oregon may not get directly hit unless there is a great amount of flattening of the coastal range there. But because of the Columbia river, it will be way below sea level for a good day or more. And because the Columbia river extends way inland in Washington, this wave will follow it to somewhere to the middle of the state. Maybe even cutting off the two tallest mountains in the state, Rainer and St. Helens, to islands, we will have to see.
Now I expect that the wave will be proportionally similar to my wave here even it is truncated. So if only 50% of the water is involved in the initial wave that would put it at a 500 foot tall wave with the Columbia river getting only 375 feet of that which should less its trip upstream and lessening the amount of time for it to clear back out to sea. Again this all depends on how much the leveling effect we see from the collapse, mountains a 1000 feet tall may end up only 100 feet tall afterwards, this can change everything.
Lets look at the leveling effect. First thing, ‘It will happen’ to some extent. Mountain ranges all along the western US will flatten so to some degree especially in the zone of concern. Be prepared for this. If you are looking to survive this then think taller rock supported areas that you can quickly get to. But if this doesn’t flatten this area then the problem extends eastward as much of the US will be slipping over to compensate. That could be all the way to the fault zone in the middle of the Atlantic and growing a continent somewhere near Iceland, Iceland could be the northern edge of it then. And interesting thought. If this does happen then expect some turmoil near any caldera, Long Valley or worse Yellowstone.
A wave will be produced a ripple like effect like you would get in a pool from a dropped rock, this one should level out to about 40% of the initial wave height. Hawaii should still see 80% of that and initially hit cities across the oceans might still see 50% of this ripple. The ripple will shrink as it spreads out but you might still see some water level increase in the southern hemisphere from it.
So while I walk Wilson beach looking for that perfect driftwood piece I imagine what would be seen here, it wasn’t pretty. The epitome of the walk came when I found a log buried in the sandy beach. What was showing was a four foot wide visible area on a log some forty feet long. Doing some quick calculations on what I saw, the tree that was buried here was eighteen to twenty feet in diameter with only 10% of it showing above the sand. There’s going to a lot of these when this wave is over …
Haiku …
I have an update to present here on the wave structure that can result from the collapse of the Cascadia Fault Line.
I was sitting on the coast of northern California recently at the Klamath river in the town of Klamath. It’s pretty there with redwoods and sequoia’s all over the area with the sandy or rocky shoreline of the Pacific Ocean. Our camping site was about 15 feet above sea level which makes me a little hesitant just being there, but I survived. When Cascadia goes off, I’m sorry to say that this whole area is a goner. It gave me a real feel for this upcoming disaster.
So I shifted gears on this topic to evaluating the wave size and structure that could result from the collapse on this area of concern. The compiled image I have added here shows my estimates of this result. Most of this is estimations that I got from sea elevation data and volumetric reviews. Take it all with a grain of salt.
The black line is a tracing of the fault line from an image.
The red line is the perimeter estimation of the fault line area and the outflow of the water from the initial event. It demonstrates that the southern end of the wave may definitely be five to six time larger than the wave that will hit the northern end, the Canadian coastal areas. This is due to the volumes available. But that is just a start.
The green line showed the volumes of water in the said area in comparison to the total area. As you can see the deepest area is just north of the Oregon/Washington border, a narrower section of the fault area.
The blue line is my estimations of wave height resulting from all this information.
If this is a total collapse then I expect that this has the potential to be a 1000 foot wave ± 20%. But I don’t expect that this will be how it happens. Because of the external shape I figure that the initial wave will be limited due to the eastern and western edges of the fault zone slamming into each other temporarily stopping the collapse. This in effect should truncate the volume of the initial wave to 60% ±20% of its maximum with the largest part of the wave being right at Portland.
Now Portland Oregon may not get directly hit unless there is a great amount of flattening of the coastal range there. But because of the Columbia river, it will be way below sea level for a good day or more. And because the Columbia river extends way inland in Washington, this wave will follow it to somewhere to the middle of the state. Maybe even cutting off the two tallest mountains in the state, Rainer and St. Helens, to islands, we will have to see.
Now I expect that the wave will be proportionally similar to my wave here even it is truncated. So if only 50% of the water is involved in the initial wave that would put it at a 500 foot tall wave with the Columbia river getting only 375 feet of that which should less its trip upstream and lessening the amount of time for it to clear back out to sea. Again this all depends on how much the leveling effect we see from the collapse, mountains a 1000 feet tall may end up only 100 feet tall afterwards, this can change everything.
Lets look at the leveling effect. First thing, ‘It will happen’ to some extent. Mountain ranges all along the western US will flatten so to some degree especially in the zone of concern. Be prepared for this. If you are looking to survive this then think taller rock supported areas that you can quickly get to. But if this doesn’t flatten this area then the problem extends eastward as much of the US will be slipping over to compensate. That could be all the way to the fault zone in the middle of the Atlantic and growing a continent somewhere near Iceland, Iceland could be the northern edge of it then. And interesting thought. If this does happen then expect some turmoil near any caldera, Long Valley or worse Yellowstone.
A wave will be produced a ripple like effect like you would get in a pool from a dropped rock, this one should level out to about 40% of the initial wave height. Hawaii should still see 80% of that and initially hit cities across the oceans might still see 50% of this ripple. The ripple will shrink as it spreads out but you might still see some water level increase in the southern hemisphere from it.
So while I walk Wilson beach looking for that perfect driftwood piece I imagine what would be seen here, it wasn’t pretty. The epitome of the walk came when I found a log buried in the sandy beach. What was showing was a four foot wide visible area on a log some forty feet long. Doing some quick calculations on what I saw, the tree that was buried here was eighteen to twenty feet in diameter with only 10% of it showing above the sand. There’s going to a lot of these when this wave is over …
Haiku …
This looks like interesting information Haiku. Can you help me decipher some of the image? What are the metrics of the x and y axis? What are the units of each line, and what are the values of the local maxima and minima of each?
Haiku
Jedi Master
I knew someone would ask for this, but I don’t have conclusive data to pass along. This is why I stated estimations in my write-up. First it is too big of an area for my CAD program to process even with my powerhouse of a computer. But I started with this STL generator image.
I left my computer running for days to try to resolve this area, no workie, had to crash it so I could do work. But below is what I got in my CAD program from this data, STL is just an image file for me. You can see the terrain of the coastline in it.
The next image is portion of the area translated and I indicated the 100’ square point of analysis, looks like a dot in the image. This one area is around 2250 ±20% meters deep, 1. 4miles.
It is in the one depression as shown on this next map.
Here is a cross section of this deeper area shown with Vancouver island as a reference.
Unless I spend the next year or more analyzing this area, I cannot give any accurate Z height of the wave. But I can estimate the initial wave shape. No matter if only 50% of the fault collapses or 100% of it goes at first, this wave profile is going to be similar, albeit smaller in size if less than 100% is pushed up from the collapse of this area. There are many factors here that include speed and size of collapse, amount of uplift in the ground itself, … If the collapse is complete and it is done instantly, the hump at Portland OR could be 1000 feet above sea level, in my estimations. It could also be twice that or half that depending on the variables. But all my review of this event states that Portland will see the largest hump of water, initially, just because of the volume of water in this area that will be pushed up in this event.
What I did find is the depth of the ocean is less at the southern end and more at the northern end. But the width of these areas, they may produce more of a higher initial wave in the southern edge as I have shown.
I’m sorry I don’t have any conclusive answers to your requested X and Y numbers, I wish I did. I would love to have a model where I could slide a bar right and left on all the variables and see an actual resulting wave produced from it. If I had this I would be able to estimate the ripple wave and its sizing as it expands out into the ocean. More wishful thinking, I get it. Thank you for the questions on what I presented.
My mind keeps coming back to the log I found buried in the sand. It was huge, broken off from the tree it started from and almost completely buried, only recently coming to the surface. I have to wonder how big of a wave it took to do this, how long ago and what forces it took to achieve it. I expect the next one to make the one that took out this tree look like it was a splash in a puddle of water, Haiku …
I left my computer running for days to try to resolve this area, no workie, had to crash it so I could do work. But below is what I got in my CAD program from this data, STL is just an image file for me. You can see the terrain of the coastline in it.
The next image is portion of the area translated and I indicated the 100’ square point of analysis, looks like a dot in the image. This one area is around 2250 ±20% meters deep, 1. 4miles.
It is in the one depression as shown on this next map.
Here is a cross section of this deeper area shown with Vancouver island as a reference.
Unless I spend the next year or more analyzing this area, I cannot give any accurate Z height of the wave. But I can estimate the initial wave shape. No matter if only 50% of the fault collapses or 100% of it goes at first, this wave profile is going to be similar, albeit smaller in size if less than 100% is pushed up from the collapse of this area. There are many factors here that include speed and size of collapse, amount of uplift in the ground itself, … If the collapse is complete and it is done instantly, the hump at Portland OR could be 1000 feet above sea level, in my estimations. It could also be twice that or half that depending on the variables. But all my review of this event states that Portland will see the largest hump of water, initially, just because of the volume of water in this area that will be pushed up in this event.
What I did find is the depth of the ocean is less at the southern end and more at the northern end. But the width of these areas, they may produce more of a higher initial wave in the southern edge as I have shown.
I’m sorry I don’t have any conclusive answers to your requested X and Y numbers, I wish I did. I would love to have a model where I could slide a bar right and left on all the variables and see an actual resulting wave produced from it. If I had this I would be able to estimate the ripple wave and its sizing as it expands out into the ocean. More wishful thinking, I get it. Thank you for the questions on what I presented.
My mind keeps coming back to the log I found buried in the sand. It was huge, broken off from the tree it started from and almost completely buried, only recently coming to the surface. I have to wonder how big of a wave it took to do this, how long ago and what forces it took to achieve it. I expect the next one to make the one that took out this tree look like it was a splash in a puddle of water, Haiku …
Haiku
Jedi Master
Good article, it presses the unspoken point, Haiku ...
It’s Only a Matter of Time Before a Tsunami Hits the Northwest. Why Is It Missing from FEMA’s Risk Analysis?
It’s Only a Matter of Time Before a Tsunami Hits the Northwest. Why Is It Missing from FEMA’s Risk Analysis?
The latest is from John Cassidy, who is one the leading experts in the Earthquake Seismology Section of the Geological Survey of Canada.
Canada's Quakes of 2023
— John Cassidy (@earthquakeguy) December 31, 2023
Southwest #BritishColumbia - where tectonic plates collide and #Canada's seismic hotspot. During 2023, 1422 #earthquakes (M0.0-5.7) were located here. Several were felt and most were offshore along the active faults.
More info:https://t.co/z3uPWgT87m pic.twitter.com/fCjKUpVHX1
Canada's Quakes of 2023
— John Cassidy (@earthquakeguy) December 31, 2023
The Haida Gwaii region is one of Canada's seismic hotspots. During 2023, 1195 #earthquakes (M0.0-4.7) were located here (several were felt). It's worth noting that several M7-8 earthquakes have occurred here during the past centuryhttps://t.co/otE0lIvsJ2 pic.twitter.com/URoBIe8B5F
Eagle Cross Theory
— JF Martel (@jfm0555) December 31, 2023
1791-12-06T13:00
Charlevoix, QC, Can. EQ M6
Jupiter•Sun•Saturn &
Mercury•Sun•Venus 10th
Between ~ NGC 5068
UGC 928, NGC 2419, LP 105-129. 8 Equilateral,
28 Isosceles, 4 Scalene
December 6-19, 1791 twenty-one chimneys were knocked down. Gazette.
Did you feel shaking in eastern #Ontario or western #Québec this morning at 04:24 ET?
— John Cassidy (@earthquakeguy) December 30, 2023
That was a M3.6 #earthquake that was felt by 100's of people across the region (from Montréal to Ottawa).
Details: https://t.co/NfAcZb5Zch
Earthquakes in this region:https://t.co/qrzZQPlRxV pic.twitter.com/3ZEy4HaVzv
The Great Quake of the 1700s with some insight from the Native Americans' oral history documenting the event
Geologic evidence shows that great earthquakes in Cascadia on average occur every 500 years, demonstrating the importance of increasing earthquake resiliency and preparedness in the Pacific Northwest.
— EarthScope Consortium (@EarthScope_sci) January 26, 2024
324 years ago tonight (9 p.m. Jan. 26, 1700) a M~9 #Cascadia subduction earthquake rocked the west coast from #VancouverIsland to northern #California. The Juan de Fuca Plate slipped as much as 20 m, causing a large tsunami, strong shaking and landslides https://t.co/l7nbpB7Q0G pic.twitter.com/QDHY7D1gwV
— John Cassidy (@earthquakeguy) January 26, 2024
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