Carl

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Could be. But I wonder if it's not just a fairly normal reaction to any new viral "threat". Or something like Niall suggested:



Taleb and some of his colleagues have an interesting take on it, given their background in probability and 'black swans':


In a nutshell, better safe than sorry. The thing about new viruses is that until each new virus like this runs it course, it COULD be the next big one. When there is uncertainty, and when the potential risks are huge, it pays to be paranoid, even if it turns out to be a dud. Because NOT being paranoid and not taking big precautionary measures could turn out to be a bad gamble. You don't want to be the guy that said, "Well, the last 10 pandemic threats turned out to be nothing, so let's all just chill and not worry" (and not take any serious preventative measures) - when you can't yet KNOW that the 11th will not turn out to be a black swan that kills millions.

It's a similar principle to that behind prepping. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. You'd think people would be able to just think rationally about it - not get hysterical, but at least be aware of the potential threat and take appropriate measures. But people aren't rational, so maybe in the long run (i.e. over the course of many generations), the hysteria actually plays a role in the self-preservation of humanity.

Absolutely! Now it does looks like this virus is just the flavor of the week in terms of news to generate the fear juice. Anyone remember Iran? This year looks like its gonna be the year of extreme fear, only irrational in hindsight and quickly forgotten.

But the boy who cried wolf story is definitely worth noting here. Coronavirus is the biggest virus scare we've had in ages. If we have another one over ths next few years, people will remember how this has flopped. And they'll be complacent and maybe not get as scared. And that's when it gets ya!

We all kinda know this on some level and it's a bit of a cliche but it is also absolutely the shape of things.

It's quite possible we spend the next few years in a state of extreme fear with nothing bad actually really happening on a big scale, and after that things get quite interesting.
 

jsf

Jedi Master
I saw a youtube - I think it was a Chinese news agency - and maybe it was govt. propaganda, but people in Wuhan were yelling out their windows (in a area with a lot of highrise housing) words of encouragement. It said the authorities didn't want people to do that, and you can make a case that it was disturbing the peace, but it makes you wonder what they are saying.

So, it reminded me of the movie where one guy yells out his window and says: 'I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it anymore!'

So, I wonder if there is some discontent, like a workers solidarity movement, and to quell discontent, a crisis is staged to undermine it. Or, maybe there is a sense of patriotism as the video suggests, but it was interesting to see, in these circumstances.

They were saying 加油 , jia you, which means "add oil", a common expression used as a cheer, or a form of encouragement (“Go! Go! Go!”, “Persist!”, “Don’t give up!”, “Do your best!”, “Good luck!” ..)
 

karo

Jedi
In last two days I started to watch some news to see what is going on in public media in Poland about this outbreak and today they were informing that WHO announced "world risk" about this virus. Reading everything in here is very helpful to stay grounded and a thought come to me that maybe they create this situation to prevent people gathering together as they do in protest and strikes now around the world. So there will be no one striking and protesting against anything malicious what goverments do, because there is a "world danger" about getting sick. But it is only a thought. And Loreta's post made me think how it may turn out in reality, even if it only was cinical, but so probable in today's reality, especially when you compared it to black friday behaviours of people. Thanks for discussing it all here and also putting things in perspective.
 

loreta

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
@Blacki I could not get the link to work. Not sure if one can trust WHO information to be accurate/honest.

The link does not work. WHO is, for me and I am cynical :evil:, is a criminal organisation like the UN. They work for whom we know, under their orders, specially WHO for Big Pharma. They are so incompetent... and also so mean. So maybe they are saying that the risks are high, ok. Are they saying a Pandemic situation? For now I did not read it. What an economical tragedy is coming thanks to these psychopaths!
 

PERLOU

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
[QUOTE = "Abats, message: 834825, membre: 12453"]
J'aime votre point de vue PERLOU mais ne seriez-vous pas déçu de faire tout le travail et de ne pas participer au passage au 4ème niveau de densité?

Au fond, je serais déçu si, malgré tout, je fais de mon mieux, je ne pouvais pas y arriver. Je me dirais que je suis né à un moment avant la transition. Nous sommes à la croisée des chemins en ce moment et j'aimerais voir la poursuite de cette transition. C'est une grande aventure en ce moment particulier et je ne voudrais rien manquer! J'espère sincèrement que vous en ferez également partie!

j'aime votre point de vue PERLOU mais ne seriez-vous pas déçu de faire tout le travail et ne pas prendre partie à passer au 4ème niveau de densité?

Au fond de moi, je serais déçu si malgré tout ce que je fais du mieux que je ne peux pas y arriver. Je me dirais que je suis né à une période avant la transition. Nous sommes à un carrefour actuellement et j'aimerais voir la suite de cette transition. C'est une grande aventure à cette époque si particulière et je ne voudrais rien manquer de ce spectacle! j'espère sincèrement que vous en ferez partie aussi!
[/CITATION]

Non ABATS, je ne serai pas déçue car il arrivera exactement ce qui doit arrivé donc si la mort vient c'est que se sera mon heure et si je dois participer au passage en 4ème service des autres, ce sera bien aussi, c'est ce que me dit mon âme...

No ABAT, I will not be disappointed because it will happen exactly what must happen so if death comes it will be my time and if I must participate in the passage in 4th service of the others, it will be good too, that's what my soul tells me...
 

Niall

Administrator
Administrator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
According to one scientist, studying the viral genome suggests that this virus originated in a lab. Perhaps it escaped? It may have been part of a research project (for vaccines). From the YouTube below @ 28.06 minutes.


Interesting discussion, especially with the scientist, James Lyons-Weiler, but in pointing out this allegedly 'manufactured' element he found in the virus genome sequence, he's leaping to a conclusion that overlooks Intelligent Design.

I am open to his theory though (that Wuhan is home to a top-tier Chinese biolab at which researchers were possibly working on a vaccine for the coronavirus set, this variant of which then got out accidentally, hence the Chinese govt's gargantuan efforts to deal with it).
 

Keit

Ambassador
Ambassador
FOTCM Member
I am open to his theory though (that Wuhan is home to a top-tier Chinese biolab at which researchers were possibly working on a vaccine for the coronavirus set, this variant of which then got out accidentally, hence the Chinese govt's gargantuan efforts to deal with it).

Margarita Simonyan just posted something very interesting on her Telegram channel (Here's a link to her FB page with the message). She wrote that she asked her crew to find out if there are no ethnic Chinese among those who got sick with corona virus. And apparently all of them are.

Apparently all the sick are either Chinese, or "it wasn't possible to determine due to doctor-patient confidentiality". And that it applies to France and Italy as well - all of the patients in these countries are ethnic Chinese. In USA it is unknown due to doctor-patient confidentiality.

So she wrote that she begins to understand China's panic.

Added: I checked her FB page and it was also posted there, but when I wanted to go back to it and copy a link and add to this reply, the post wasn't there anymore. Since then Simonyan again posted the message and added info about Germany that they also don't disclose patients ethnicity.
 

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Mr.Cyan

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
I am open to his theory though (that Wuhan is home to a top-tier Chinese biolab at which researchers were possibly working on a vaccine for the coronavirus set, this variant of which then got out accidentally, hence the Chinese govt's gargantuan efforts to deal with it).

Been thinking a lot too about the origins of this virus - and the Chinese govt's reaction to try an deal with it i think is a big clue. Initially they were quite "relaxed" about it - but then they changed tack and went full lock down on Wuhan, and now they are even rushing to build a massive hospital in record time. And in a space of a week since the Wuhan lockdown there is a shortage of facials masks and hand sanitizers in China, and South East Asia.....when even 10 days ago there were no issues purchasing them in pharmacies.

The theory that it is an "escapee" from their biolab is plausible. Or the thought that it is a targetted bio-weapon from the Empire also is plausible i think. The speed at which WHO declared this a global pandemic, and all forms of Western companies (including airlines) pulling out or shutting down their services in China seemed to be very quick - almost as if it were planned. Im really not sure, just many thoughts and trying to figure out what is happening.

It could very well be a natural virus in keeping with the cosmic times - and one wonders when more "deadly" ones are going to surface, just how the governments and people are going to deal with it. The situation is Wuhan too is still fluid, infections rates are increasing exponentially, but thankfully the mortality % are going down, though the number of deaths are increasing.

Already, in most countries in Asia there seems to be a kind of "phobos". A great fear that is just thick in the air - and people holding their breath wondering what the news will bring tomorrow about the Wuhan coronovirus...fwiw
 

Niall

Administrator
Administrator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
Here's Lyons-Weiler's theory in more detail. I don't know anything about 'pShuttle vectors' and genetic recombination, but his analysis seems coherent:

On the Origins of the 2019-nCoV Virus, Wuhan, China

Recombination technology has been in use in molecular virology since the 1980s. The structure of the 2019-NCoV virus genome provides a very strong clue on the likely origin of the virus.

Unlike other related coronaviruses, the 2019-nCoV virus has a unique sequence about 1,378 bp (nucleotide base pairs) long that is not found in related coronaviruses.

Looking at the phylogenetic tree recently published, derived using all the full genome sequence, we see the 2019-nCoV virus does not have clear monophyletic support given the bootstrap value of 75 (Fig 1).

bootstrap75.jpg


Close-up on Bootstrap value of 75 for available 2019-nCoV from Lu et al., 2020 The Lancet article [Full Text]

There is no doubt that there is a novel sequence in 2019-nCoV; we confirmed this via sequence alignment. Here’s the DOT plot:

Dot-Plot.png


The gap in the line shows a lack of sequence homology between the most similar bat coronavirus and 2019-nCoV. The inserted sequence, which should not be there is here:

inserted-portion

A database search by the first team to study and publish the whole genome sequence for the origins of the inserted sequence turned up no hits (Ji et al., 2020). They conducted a codon-bias analysis which led them to speculate that perhaps there had been a recombination event between a coronavirus in snakes with a coronavirus from bats (Ji et al., 2020). [Full Text]

This led to criticism on Wired(3) with quote dismissing the snake origin hypothesis as lacking evidence. There is, however, clear evidence that the novel sequence, which I will refer to henceforth as INS1378, is from a laboratory-induced recombination event. Specifically,

(1) The sequence similarity to other coronavirus sequences is lower to its most similar sequences in any coronavirus than the rest of the genome (IPAK finding)

(2) The high sequence similarity of INS1378 to a SARS spike protein (2; IPAK Confirmed).

(3) We also found significant sequence similarity of INS1378 to a pShuttle-SN vector that was in use in the 1980’s in China to create a more immunogenic coronavirus (IPAK finding, details below, Option 4).

Here, I review four Options on the origins of the 2019-nCoV Coronavirus isolated from human patients from Wuhan, China.

Option 1. Natural coronavirus related to bat coronaviruses, Not a Recombined Virus.

Evidence for: Phylogenetic clustering with Bat coronaviruses.

Evidence against: Low bootstrap support (N=75) and presence of a INS1378.

Status: Falsified hypothesis.

Test: Survey coronviruses in animals in the wild.

Option 2. A recombined virus that naturally picked up a SARS-like spike protein in it N-terminus (3′ end) of the viral genome.

Evidence for: The INS1378 codon bias similar to snakes ($)

Evidence against: Insufficient match in database search to other known CoV spike proteins (Ji et al., 2020)

Status: Speculative hypothesis. Unlikely.

Test: Find an isolate that matches 2019-nCoV in the wild and reproducibly independently isolate the virus from a wild animal (a match will confirm).

Option 3. A recombined virus made in a laboratory for the purpose of creating a bioweapon.

Both China and the US hinted at the other side’s potential liability in playing a role in bringing about a novel coronavirus in the lab specifically for the purpose of being used as a bioweapon. To add to the intrigue, a Chinese scientist was released from BSL-4 laboratory in Manitoba, Canada for violating protocols, allegedly sending samples of deadly viruses to mainland China.


On January 26, The Washington Times published this article citing an Israeli defense expert claiming that China has likely proceeded with a bioweapons program, but ending the article with a quote to London’s Daily Mail from a US scientist Rutgers University microbiologist Richard Ebright that “at this point there’s no reason to harbor suspicions” that the lab may be linked to the virus outbreak.

washingtonTimes.jpg


The same person was quoted in a Feb 2017 Nature article stating that SARS had escaped the Wuhan facility “multiple times”.

1.jpg


Evidence for: Presence of BSL-4 laboratory 20 miles from the Wuhan seafood market

Evidence against: Published opinion.

Status: Rumor. But see below.

Option 4. A recombined virus made in a laboratory for the purpose of creating a vaccine.

IPAK researchers found a sequence similarity between a pShuttle-SN recombination vector sequence and INS1378. Here’s a shot of the alignment and the DOT Plot.

Wuhan_pshuttle.jpg


Here’s the nucleotide sequence at NCBI’s Nucleotide database. Here’s a patent for its use in recombination virology.

The pShuttle-SN vector was among many described in a 1998 paper by Bert Vogelstein et al; here is a company where one can purchase the pShuttle-SN vector:

addGene.jpg


It turns out that the sequence from pShuttle is most closely related to the Spike protein from SARS coronavirus.

spike-protein-tree.jpg


This particular technology was used in 2008 to attempt to develop a more immunogenic vaccine against coronavirus. Here’s a Chinese patent for that technique and product intended for use in a vaccine.

The patent summary reads:

SARS vaccine of adenovirus vector and preparation method, application of coronavirus S gene
Abstract
(translated from Chinese)
The present invention belongs to the field of genetic engineering, particularly relates to adenoviral vector SARS vaccines, their preparation and coronavirus S genes in SARS (SARS) on vaccines for the prophylaxis. By means of biological engineering, the coronavirus S gene in combination with deficient recombinant adenovirus, the protective immunogen protein or polypeptide expressed therein, through expansion culture, purification, and formulation to prepare a mucosal immunogenicity can cause the gene vaccine, respiratory mucosal immune response induced by the body to produce antibodies against the virus infection. Specific conditions of the present invention, compared with conventional inactivated virus particle vaccine, safe, easy to use, without limitation intramuscular, have broad clinical applications.

In 2015, The US called for an end to research creating new viruses in the lab that have increased threat (higher transmissibility, higher pathogenicity, higher lethalithy) (3)

TheScientist2015.jpg

The very researchers conducting studies on SARS vaccines have cautioned repeatedly against human trials;

“An early concern for application of a SARS-CoV vaccine was the experience with other coronavirus infections which induced enhanced disease and immunopathology in animals when challenged with infectious virus [31], a concern reinforced by the report that animals given an alum adjuvanted SARS vaccine and subsequently challenged with SARS-CoV exhibited an immunopathologic lung reaction reminiscent of that described for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in infants and in animal models given RSV vaccine and challenged naturally (infants) or artificially (animals) with RSV [32], [33]. We and others described a similar immunopathologic reaction in mice vaccinated with a SARS-CoV vaccine and subsequently challenged with SARS-CoV [18], [20], [21], [28]. It has been proposed that the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV is the antigen to which the immunopathologic reaction is directed [18], [21]. Thus, concern for proceeding to humans with candidate SARS-CoV vaccines emerged from these various observations.” – Tseng et al.,

The disease progression in of 2019-nCoV is consistent with those seen in animals and humans vaccinated against SARS and then challenged with re-infection. Thus, the hypothesis that 2019-nCoV is an experimental vaccine type must be seriously considered.

Evidence for: Sequence homology between INS1378 to pShuttle Coronavirus vaccine; presence of a SARS-like Spike protein in bat coronavirus, otherwise most similar to bat coronaviruses; low bootstrap value.

Evidence against: Low sequence homology (but highly signifiant). NB these viruses are RNA viruses and they can evolve quickly, even under laboratory conditions.

Status: Most likely.

Test: Determine the nucleotide sequence all laboratory types of coronavirus being studied in China (a match will confirm). Find an isolate that matches 2019-nCoV in the wild and reproducibly independently isolate the virus from a wild animal (a match will falsify).

The available evidence most strongly supports that the 2019-NCoV virus is a vaccine strain of coronavirus either accidentally released from a laboratory accident, perhaps a laboratory researcher becoming infected with the virus while conducting animal experiments, or the Chinese were performing clinical studies of a Coronavirus vaccine in humans.

Dr. Dale Brown brought to my attention the studies that have reported serious immunopathology in animals – rats, ferrets, and monkeys – in which animals vaccinated against coronoviruses tended to have extremely high rates of respiratory failure upon subsequent exposure in the study when challenged with the wild-type coronavirus.

TeEtal2012.jpg

“Caution in proceeding to application of a SARS-CoV vaccine in humans is indicated”- Te et al., 2012 [Full Text]
Yasui et al., (2012) reported severe pneumonia in mice who were vaccinated against SARS who were subsequently infected with SARS.

Another study of a double-inactived SARS vaccine found increased eosinophilic proinflammatory responses in vaccinated mice, especially older mice, writing:

“Importantly, aged animals displayed increased eosinophilic immune pathology in the lungs and were not protected against significant virus replication.”

If the Chinese government has been conducting human trials against SARS. MERS, or other coronviruses using recombined viruses, they may have made their citizens far more susceptible to acute respiratory distress syndrome upon infection with 2019-nCoV coronavirus.

The implications are clear: if China sensitized their population via a SARS vaccine, and this escaped from a lab, the rest of world has a serious humanitarian urgency to help China, but may not expect as serious an epidemic as might otherwise be expected.

In the worst-case scenario, if the vaccination strain is more highly contagious and lethal, 2019-nCoV could become the worst example of vaccine-derived contagious disease in human history. With an uncharacteristic aysmptomatic prodromal period of 5-7 days, individuals returning from China to other countries must be forthright and cooperative in their now-prescribed 2-week quarantine.

Citations

Lu, R et al., 2020. Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding The Lancet. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30251-8/fulltext

Tseng et al., 2012. Double-Inactivated Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Vaccine Provides Incomplete Protection in Mice and Induces Increased Eosinophilic Proinflammatory Pulmonary Response Upon Challenge A Double-Inactivated Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Vaccine Provides Incomplete Protection in Mice and Induces Increased Eosinophilic Proinflammatory Pulmonary Response upon Challenge

Te et al., 2012. Immunization with SARS coronavirus vaccines leads to pulmonary immunopathology on challenge with the SARS virus. PLoS One 7(4) Immunization with SARS coronavirus vaccines leads to pulmonary immunopathology on challenge with the SARS virus. - PubMed - NCBI

Yasui et al., Prior immunization with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV) nucleocapsid protein causes severe pneumonia in mice infected with SARS-CoV. J Immunol. 181:6337-48 Prior immunization with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV) nucleocapsid protein causes severe pneumonia in ... - PubMed - NCBI Prior Immunization with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-Associated Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) Nucleocapsid Protein Causes Severe Pneumonia in Mice Infected with SARS-CoV

He seems to be arguing that a gene sequence artificially developed in a lab back in 1998, and since then used in experimental but thus far deadly and failed vaccines, is a 'match' (or close match) for the 'new' sequence within the genome of the 2019-nCoV virus.
 
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