I don't think we can draw any conclusions from the bullet photo. I'm not all that convinced the photo is real.
It could also be any 1 of the 10 or 11 shots supposedly fired - there may be more due to the reality of subsonic rounds or secret black ops weapons. It could come from shooter 1, 2, or 3, depending on the theory. And that means 1, 2, or 3 locations. All we can state is that given its apparent momentum, it's likely to have come from the Crooks direction.
One thing that's clear to me is that it's not the bullet that hit Trump. It's not the first shot. Look at the elevation of the bullet. It arrives at around mouth level.
View attachment 98486
Trump was struck in the upper part of his right ear. That's a difference of about 4 inches.
View attachment 98485
He didn't
duck his head as well as turn.
Still, we could try correct for the angle of the photographer, and say it only looks like its coming on at mouth level due to the steep perspective. It may not be the bullet that hit Trump, but maybe it was moving along the same trajectory that hit Trump.
Here's a still from the most straight-on
video, stopped at the time when the first shot is heard.
View attachment 98487
We can immediately conclude the bullet photo does not capture the first shot. Both of Trump's hands are on the podium when the first shot is taken, whereas in the bullet photo, one is in the air making a gesture. The only shot it could have been is the second one, where he had raised his hand to his ear. But in the video, I don't see his hand taking the same gesture shape as shown in the bullet photo. I'd also think that if this were the second shot, there would be some blur to his hand motion, given that his hand moved to his ear quickly. In the video, he is starting to hunch over, whereas in the photo, he is upright.
It's not the third shot because his hand has no blood on it. So second shot is the only likely candidate. But even then, I don't think that this is what the photo shows.
One main reason why is the blue sky background that very conveniently shows the bullet trajectory on a clear background. This is the perspective question again.
Look at the packed bleachers behind Trump. How did the cameraman not capture any of those people in the photo? One answer is that his angle must have been pretty steep. From what I recall the press was down below Trump.
But was it steep enough to
not include the crowd behind Trump, and
still capture his head from what like basically straight on? I'd say no, it doesn't.
Add in the low probability of actually capturing a bullet in flight - especially such an important one - and think we can say the photo is fake.