Greece: debt, creditors, austerity measures, Syriza, Varoufakis, Troika

[Cosmos]

This just in from RT:

Greece asks for new 3yr loan – Bloomberg
http://rt.com/business/272419-greece-third-bailout-crisis/

Ah yes, another loan from the IMF to the tune of more than 50 billion. Splendid! To pay off debts that are accumulating from previous loans! Amazing... Truly amazing!

Looking forward to all the analysis as to how they'll end up freeing Greece from the tentacles of the IMF and EU from this latest move.

Note that the new minister of finance is asking the loan from the ESM, the European Stability Mechanism, not the IMF. And after listening to Tsipras speech during the Eurogroup today, I think that now I see where they are going. To get the IMF out of the troika and its involvement in the European affairs and institutions! A move that I believe will help both Europe and Russia, and the relations of the two potentially in the future.

You know, I find it strange that some private and public institutions get 'bailed out' when they run into trouble but countries don't! I wonder if the employees at all those banks that got bailed out gad to endure lower wages, slashed pensions, longer working hours etc... Absolutely amazing! Yet millions of people would be made to suffer and apparently its all justified and correct.

Here is to praying the IMF say no...

Again, they are not requesting a loan from the IMF, but the ESM. And if you are saying they should not be asking for money either from the IMF or the ESM because they have to cut all ties with evil american and european institutions, you need to keep in mind that there are millions of people who need to get paychecks and pensions and pharmaceuticals and food and electricity, and the country right now is bankrupt. No, Russia hasn't given them any loans yet, nor anyone else, so as members of the EU they have the right to ask for help to meet the basic needs of their people and their entire country. Until further developments...

Fully agree.

Real politics (which is smart politics with a conscience) is not an easy "black or white, all or nothing" approach. It is a very tough situation for every real politician that needs to be handled very carefully, because the lives of many millions of people are effected by everthing they do or say. And when you are dealing with politicians, without a conscience on the other end, you have to be even more careful. So in real politics nowadays you have to play with the devil to certain extend, especially if your country is still a part of the system, otherwise everything will get ugly very quickly for the people. Putin is a master in it and my guess is, that Tsipras and Co. are learning from that approach.

 

[Aiming]

Thanks spyraal, for your explanation. I'd thought that the majority of Greeks would vote their No, but assumed the PTB would do everything they can to rig the votes, and so didn't see much hope for this quite historical result. The only thing that worries me, as others have expressed already, is the subsequent moves by the PTB, who in their blind fury and "indignation" might just go ahead in one or several ways and bring even more suffering to the Greeks.

I wonder when the scene appear Putin?

I wonder whether Putin hasn't given direct advice to the Greek government in how to go about this, i.e. he's been there behind the scenes already.

 

[Yozilla]

Hmmm, what if ESM refuses to help Greece, almost feels like hammering the wedge deeper towards EU vampire's heart... very interesting...

 

[luke wilson]

I don't disagree with anything said and I'm sure there are all sorts of strategy at play here...

Just wanted to say the article cited from RT said

The requested 3-year bailout package from the IMF is estimated to be over €51 billion, however there is no exact amount.

I don't know why they would say the IMF if it was the ESM?

 

[luc]

Saw this story yesterday on RT, such a strong symbolism - coincidence?

_http://www.nytimes.com/live/greek-debt-crisis-live-updates/dismantling-the-euro-literally-in-frankfurt/

Dismantling the Euro, Literally, in Frankfurt

Ralph Orlowski/Reuters
Workers in Frankfurt on Monday began dismantling the large sculpture of the euro symbol outside the European Central Bank’s former headquarters.

Seemingly oblivious to the unintended symbolism of tearing apart the sculpture the day after the results of a referendum in Greece called into question the future of the euro itself, the workers removed translucent panels from the sign and the stars that surround it.

The sculpture, by the German artist Ottmar Hörl, was constructed in 2001 in the lead-up to the introduction of euro bank notes and coins in January 2002.

The sculpture has been in poor condition for some time now. In April, The Wall Street Journal reported that “light bulbs need to be replaced inside the symbol, which consists of a giant blue € spangled with 12 yellow stars.”

“Bumper stickers mar its exterior,” the article read. “Vandals recently painted one star red.”

Reuters reported that the sculpture is to be repaired and reconstructed later in the week.

 

[luc]

Fully agree.

Real politics (which is smart politics with a conscience) is not an easy "black or white, all or nothing" approach. It is a very tough situation for every real politician that needs to be handled very carefully, because the lives of many millions of people are effected by everthing they do or say. And when you are dealing with politicians, without a conscience on the other end, you have to be even more careful. So in real politics nowadays you have to play with the devil to certain extend, especially if your country is still a part of the system, otherwise everything will get ugly very quickly for the people. Putin is a master in it and my guess is, that Tsipras and Co. are learning from that approach.

I agree as well - I think sometimes it helps to come up with an analogy from our personal "real" lives: For example, many of us who live in the West would agree that Russia has a much better leadership than the Empire's vassal states and a healthier society, and that the future may look brighter there as a consequence. Yet, we don't just move to Russia - for good reasons: We have family and friends where we are, obligations, we have our bank accounts and jobs here, we know the system and how to deal with it, we speak the language... So we may not like what we see here in psycho-land, but there it is, we have to deal with it and strategically plot our escape, which doesn't necessarily imply relocation. So maybe the same applies to whole countries: You cannot "switch systems" in a heartbeat, it would only cause misery for many people and the loss of opportunities to do something positive. It has to be strategic, well-planned and probably involves dealing with the devil, like Don Juan's warrior who "plays the game" until the opportunity arises to strike back. FWIW

 

[SeekinTruth]

Video from stormclouds gathering posted on Saker's blog (haven't watch it yet):
http://thesaker.is/the-greek-crisis-what-youre-not-being-told/

Also Tsipras' Closing Statement to EC:
http://thesaker.is/greek-prime-minister-alexis-tsipras-speech-to-european-council-july-8-2015/

Another guest post:
http://thesaker.is/when-fear-is-not-enough/

 

[Mr.Cyan]

Fully agree.

Real politics (which is smart politics with a conscience) is not an easy "black or white, all or nothing" approach. It is a very tough situation for every real politician that needs to be handled very carefully, because the lives of many millions of people are effected by everthing they do or say. And when you are dealing with politicians, without a conscience on the other end, you have to be even more careful. So in real politics nowadays you have to play with the devil to certain extend, especially if your country is still a part of the system, otherwise everything will get ugly very quickly for the people. Putin is a master in it and my guess is, that Tsipras and Co. are learning from that approach.

I agree as well - I think sometimes it helps to come up with an analogy from our personal "real" lives: For example, many of us who live in the West would agree that Russia has a much better leadership than the Empire's vassal states and a healthier society, and that the future may look brighter there as a consequence. Yet, we don't just move to Russia - for good reasons: We have family and friends where we are, obligations, we have our bank accounts and jobs here, we know the system and how to deal with it, we speak the language... So we may not like what we see here in psycho-land, but there it is, we have to deal with it and strategically plot our escape, which doesn't necessarily imply relocation. So maybe the same applies to whole countries: You cannot "switch systems" in a heartbeat, it would only cause misery for many people and the loss of opportunities to do something positive. It has to be strategic, well-planned and probably involves dealing with the devil, like Don Juan's warrior who "plays the game" until the opportunity arises to strike back. FWIW

Ditto and fully agree as well. It is not an easy process to dance with the devil and then walk away without any repercussions. I too imagine that Tsipras and Syriza have learned from the Putin approach, and are carefully planning their next moves in this extremely fluid situation; which is changing on a daily basis. Nonetheless, it is going to be a complicated and difficult path ahead. Also, as long as Tsipras and Syriza continue to protect the interests of Greece and the Greek people - slowly but surely the masks of the psycho's in Brussels will slip, and this may work in their favour....

Just read a guest post on the Saker " When fear is not enough" - link was kindly posted by ST earlier - and i quote a paragraph relevant to this discussion:

Many people, especially economists argue that the best course of action for Greece is to leave Euro and issue its own currency. But Mr. Tsipras cannot do that at this moment, even if he wants to. The simple reason is that the people are not ready; the referendum vote was clearly not a command to leave the Euro let alone the EU. His best bet is to be seen to be negotiating a fair deal (hence the “removal” of Mr. Varoufakis) while at the same time preparing the country for an exit from the Euro and issuing its own currency. I do believe he gambles on the German (primarily) and every EU bureaucrat arrogance; that whatever proposal he prepares, no matter how logical or submissive it is, it will not be enough. In the meantime, he will be implementing Plan B (I believe he has some form of support / assurance from Russia and / or BRICS) which will primarily consist of preparing the people for an exit from the EU as well as the country; you cannot go to a new currency in a single day.

If he can hold long enough that the people of Greece to see and feel the vindictiveness from the Empire, then they will ask themselves to leave Euro.

Unless of course the unthinkable happens and the rest of the people or Europe rise up to the oppressing unelected Eurocrats themselves.

 

[Shared Joy]

An interesting article about the Greek women who voted NO, and why did they:

_http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/11728334/Greece-crisis-Why-desperate-women-pushed-Greece-towards-the-exit-door.html

quote:
Why desperate women pushed Greece towards the exit door

Greek women voted overwhelmingly to reject the bail-out package in the country's referendum - despite typically being more risk-averse than men.
...
Why have women played such a crucial role in the crisis? To put it simply, they voted overwhelmingly to reject the bail-out package suggested for their country. Almost two in three women – or 62.3 per cent – voted “No in the referendum, a figure higher than their male counterparts.
....
So why did safety-conscious women throw caution to the wind and come out in their thousands to vote No?
The reason is simple: women are bearing the brunt of the pain in Greece.
A giant factor in determining whether someone was going to vote “No” or “Yes” in the referendum is whether they were unemployed. A total of 72.9 per cent of jobless Greeks voted against austerity, compared to 65.5 per cent of those in work and 53.6 per cent of those classed as “inactive” (mainly pensioners.) In a similar way, 63.1 per cent of people who were “facing great financial difficulty” voted against austerity, compared to 52.3 per cent of those “living comfortably.”
Sadly, women fit into these categories.
...
end quote

So, when one has less to loose, one is more prone to seek changes, even if going in uncharted territories...
How safer it would be if one were well informed and organized ?!

But I don't think that some positive masterminds could have the chance to organized some viable contingency plans.
Maybe some heavy sacrifices are lurking ahead.
Maybe they are needed by people willing to get transformed.

C's said the finally people will be united through suffering. I think this situation goes in that direction.

 

[SeekinTruth]

Yeah, I agree with these assessment too. And the example set by Greece IS having repercussions throughout the other abused Eurozone and EU member states. Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, France, and even UK have growing anti-EU movements....

 

[spyraal]

The Saker is right in some respect. Tsipras did not get a clear directive to exit Eurozone from the recent referendum. Yet the referendum said a clear and loud NO to more punishing austerity and further degradation of national sovereignty. So if he comes to agree on any deal that would actually include more austerity, taxation, job losses, sell-off of public property etc. then this will be like a political suicide for him and SYRIZA, when only last week he was rallying people against them. And I cannot see how it would be possible for Tsipras to strike a deal that would not include any of these red flags.

My current guess is that there will be no agreement at the end, using one pretext or the other. I think Tsipras will appear to try his best until the very last moment to achieve the deal he wants for Greece, until it's made evident to the Greek people that there is no room within Eurozone for less austerity and thus no other option left on the table than a Grexit. That way he won't get direct blame for what is to follow, as a Grexit will then become by exclusion the only way left for him to honor the NO vote of the referendum, even if he was never actually given a clear mandate to go on with it and exit the Euro.

Thank you.

-EDIT: I just read on the news that Merkel said a haircut on the Greek debt is "out of the question". This can be reason enough to blow the deal for the Greek side, as for Greeks it is something they know they cannot do without. The debt is unsustainable (178% of the GDP), and the special "Debt Truth" committee of the Greek parliament initiated by SYRIZA has verified this in the most official way.

 

[NancyYvonne]

It will be interesting to see what happens next, I understand that Russia is trying to help out by running a gas pipeline through Greece. It reminds me of Egdar Cayces' prediction that Russia would become the hope of the world.

 

[luke wilson]

But what about the liquidity problem in the country? Does he not have any options other than to capitulate? If he doesn't strike a compromise, which will by definition go against the NO vote, then surely there is only financial chaos ahead? Its a lose lose situation... No?

Unlike Russia, Greece doesn't have resources like natural gas...

 

[spyraal]

But what about the liquidity problem in the country? Does he not have any options other than to capitulate? If he doesn't strike a compromise, which will by definition go against the NO vote, then surely there is only financial chaos ahead? Its a lose lose situation... No?

Unlike Russia, Greece doesn't have resources like natural gas...

The liquidity problem exists actually only as long as Greece is part of Eurozone, and flow and printing of money is under control of European Central Bank (ECB). That is part of what a Grexit is all about: printing a new national currency at the right quantity and value to serve the individual needs of the Greek economy. It is a procedure that would take 6-8 months, as modern bank notes need advanced security features against counterfeiters, like watermarks and holographic stamps. But no one really knows if this procedure is already on the go behind closed doors. In that case the transition to national currency would be even faster. In the meanwhile Greece would nationalize all currently oligarch-owned private banks, since the state has been forced up to now by Eurozone to provide them with liquidity support that exceeds their market value tenfold (they have received around 240 billion Euros in "emergency" cash ejections, money which is backed-up by state guaranties and then paid by citizens through taxes to cover the oligarchs). So, in a way the state actually owns the banks, but without having seized control over them (yet). Then Greece could issue temporary credit-debit cards to all citizens, which people could use for being paid their salaries, buying stuff etc. until the physical currency is printed in enough quantity.

Greece has currently 95% self-sufficiency in food production, even at it's current plight. Estimations have it that in 6 months time that could increase by 30-40%, allowing even for major food exports and extra income too. Given some more time it could do even better. Greece has really huge food producing potential.

As it concerns natural resources, Greece is actually very rich in both petrol and natural gas resources. Quote from an article from Globalresearch.ca (_http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-new-mediterranean-oil-and-gas-bonanza/29609):

The discovery in late 2010 of the huge natural gas bonanza off Israel’s Mediterranean shores triggered other neighboring countries to look more closely at their own waters. The results revealed that the entire eastern Mediterranean is swimming in huge untapped oil and gas reserves. That discovery is having enormous political, geopolitical as well as economic consequences. It well may have potential military consequences too.

So, petrol and gas is not only an issue, but really it's quite the opposite: it's another major potential source of income. Greece is also (due do it's volcanic nature) one the world's richest countries in rare earth minerals which are more precious that gold per weight, and heavily used in advanced technology applications. Let alone having an established heavy-weight tourist industry with crystal clean and unspoiled seas and beaches and more than 6000 islands of unique beauty, architecture, culture and history. Also Greece plays a major and global role as an international commercial hub, and as Wikipedia says "The Greek Merchant Navy controls 16.2% of the world's total merchant fleet, making it the largest in the world. Greece is ranked in the top 5 for all kinds of ships, including first for tankers and bulk carriers."

Greece could also refrain for a few years to allow it's new national currency from being traded in international currency market, protecting the economy from the global upheaval and speculators. Also in case of a Grexit, Russia has stated that it's willing to pay at any time at least 8 billion Euros in advance payments for the new gas pipeline network that has been agreed to pass through Greece, the "Greek Stream" pipeline.

In a few words, as even the Nobel awarded economist Paul Krougman has stated, what EU fears most is that Greece could become the new "Mediterranean Tiger" in a few years after a Grexit, and that would prove to be the biggest nail in the Eurozone's coffin, or what is left of it. Only the first few months would be somewhat troublesome as I said above, but that is nothing compared to what Greece has suffered the past 6 years, loosing an amazing 25% of it's GDP, the biggest ever lose of GDP a country has ever faced in peacetime ever. More that the lose it suffered during WW2. So, at least financially wise, Greece has nothing to fear but fear itself.

 

[luke wilson]

Thanks for the explanation!