Nitrogen and the politics of climate change
The Wiki on the
history of climate change science begins:
The
history of the scientific discovery of climate change began in the early 19th century when
ice ages and other natural changes in
paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural
greenhouse effect was first identified.
The history of the politics of climate change is intertwined with what they call climate change science. If one abstracts from the idea that the politics of climate change is only driven by a concern for the climate, to the more concerning issue that the intention is to depopulate the planet, then new patterns appear, as in this illustration:
Depopulation is a screw with many settings
Below, I will attempt to discover why nitrogen is important in the green climate politics, but first something about the role of nitrogen in the world we live in. Perhaps before moving on, I should mention, that I do appreciate clean air, clean water, a clean earth and healthy food, but it is also clear that the path to achieve such goals can not be divested from a concern for the current population on the planet. There is need for balance.
The nitrogen cycle
The nitrogen cycle models the cycle of nitrogen in the global ecosystem.
From the Wiki on the
nitrogen cycle, this image focus on
reactive nitrogen, chemical compounds that can participate in other processes. Nitrogen in the form of N2 make up 78 % of the air in our atmosphere, but it is chemically rather inert.
Nitrogen oxides, NOx, as Green House Gases (GHG)
In the illustration above,
NOx is a class of compounds consisting of nitrogen and oxygen, like NO and NO2. These can be formed at high temperatures as in engines and furnaces or during natural events as lightening and volcanic. Among sources created by humans, this company
information article distinguishes between:
Thermal NOx
This is the most produced form of NOx during the combustion process, which typically occurs at very high temperatures (i.e., above 2200° F). At these high temperatures, nitrogen molecules present in the combustion air react with oxygen molecules to form NOx. The higher the temperature and the longer the nitrogen molecules are exposed to this temperature, the greater the formation of thermal NOx.
Fuel NOx
This type of NOx forms when nitrogen molecules in fuels, such as coal and oil, are released and react with excess oxygen present in the combustion air. Fuel NOx emissions are a significant environmental concern with the potential to account for up to 50% of total emissions when burning oil and up to 80% of total emissions when burning coal.
Prompt NOx
This is the least produced form of NOx that occurs when atmospheric nitrogen reacts with radicals in the air at the early stages of combustion. Prompt NOx is not considered a main contributor to the NOx emissions targeted by environmental regulators.
A
Chinese study mentions that agriculture accounts for more than 11 % of the global GHG emissions
The continuing increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere is a worldwide concern.
GHG emissions resulting from agricultural production accounted for approximately 11% of the global anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2010 [
1,
2]. Recently, the GHG emissions from different types of agricultural activities have been estimated in many studies [
3,
4,
5,
6].
In China, the application of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers contributed greatly to grain production and food safety. However, under the influence of traditional ideas, as well as lack of proper knowledge and scientific guidance, many farmers apply excessive synthetic N fertilizers to croplands [
7,
8]. The rapid increase in the consumption of synthetic N fertilizers and low N use efficiency in Chinese croplands have restricted the sustainable development of agriculture and led to a variety of environmental problems [
9].
The manufacture of synthetic N fertilizers, including fossil fuel mining and transportation, ammonia synthesis and conversion of ammonia to various N fertilizer products, is an important source of GHG emissions [10]. In 2005, the GHG emissions from N fertilizer manufacturing were estimated to be 260.4 Tg CO2-eq, accounting for
4.3% of the total national GHG emissions [
10].
Synthetic N fertilization is considered as one of the most significant factors contributing to anthropogenic N2O emissions from agricultural soils [11]. Total direct N2O emissions from Chinese croplands were estimated to be 313 Gg N2O–N in 2007, and the contribution to N2O emissions from croplands by synthetic N fertilizers was 79.4% [
12].
Therefore, the consumption of synthetic N fertilizers for crop production is a driver of agricultural GHG emissions.
The Wiki on
Nitrogen cycle has:
Nitrous oxide (N2O) has risen in the atmosphere as a result of agricultural fertilization, biomass burning, cattle and feedlots, and industrial sources.
[49] N2O has deleterious effects in the
stratosphere, where it breaks down and acts as a
catalyst in the destruction of atmospheric ozone. Nitrous oxide is also a greenhouse gas and is currently
the third largest contributor to global warming, after carbon dioxide and methane. While not as abundant in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, it is, for an equivalent mass,
nearly 300 times more potent in its ability to warm the planet.[50]
The Wiki on
Nitrous oxide mentions:
The total amount of nitrous oxide released that is of human origins is about 40 percent.[136]
The above 40 % depends on how accurate one can know the amount released by the natural processes and by human processes.
The nitrogen cycle and living organisms
Another illustration from the Wiki shows the nitrogen cycle, but with focus on living organisms. Nitrogen in the air is fixated by some plants, and used by the same plants or other plants. Animals eat the plants and return some nitrogen to the soil, some of which can be used by the plants or fungus organisms before it is used by bacteria either to make new nutrients or return the nitrogen to the air as N2. There is an illustration of lightning, as this is one way nature can split the nitrogen molecules in the air, to create reactive nitrogen. Also volcanic activity and bush fires can generate nitrous oxides.
To add the missing information about the influence of volcanoes, there was an older study from 2004,
Nitric acid from volcanoes, that calculated the global effect, even if the amounts are off, the principles still stand.
Atmospheric cycling of nitric acid and other nitrogen-bearing compounds is an important biogeochemical process, with significant implications for ecosystems and human health. Volcanoes are rarely considered as part of the global nitrogen cycle, but here we show that they release a previously unconsidered flux of HNO3 vapour to the atmosphere. We report the first measurements of nitric acid vapour in the persistent plumes from four volcanoes: Masaya (Nicaragua); Etna (Italy); and Villarrica and Lascar (Chile). Mean near-source volcanic plume concentrations of HNO3 range from 1.8 to 5.6 μmol m−3, an enrichment of one to two orders of magnitude over background (0.1–1.5 μmol m−3). Using mean molar HNO3/SO2 ratios of 0.01, 0.02, 0.05, and 0.07 for Villarrica, Masaya, Etna, and Lascar respectively, combined with SO2 flux measurements, we calculate gaseous HNO3 fluxes from each of these volcanic systems, and extend this to estimate the global flux from high-temperature, non-explosive volcanism to be ∼0.02–0.06 Tg (N) yr−1. While comparatively small on the global scale, this flux could have important implications for regional fixed N budgets. The precise mechanism for the emission of this HNO3 remains unclear but we suggest that thermal nitrogen fixation followed by rapid oxidation of the product NO is most likely. In explosive, ash-rich plumes NO may result from, or at least be supplemented by, production from volcanic lightning rather than thermal N fixation. We have calculated NO production via this route to be of the order of 0.02 Tg (N) yr−1.
Besides nitrogen, other elements are needed for plant growth. Each have their own cycles, but nitrogen is one of the most important, as it is found in all amino acids.
Nitrogen as a primary nutrient for plants
The Norwegian company Yara issued a
Fertilizer Industry Handbook in 2018, where one finds the following slide that explains the importance of nutrients though they seem to take light, water, and carbon dioxide for granted.
In the example of the barrel showing nutrients needed for the growth of a plant, the limiting factor is nitrogen. This is of course not always the case, as soils differ and so do the requirements of plants. Besides both light, water and carbon dioxide can be limiting factors as well. The Yara publication explains that one can distinguish between different categories of nutrients and that a balance of all is important for optimal growth.
Nutrients are classified into three sub-groups based on plant growth needs: • Macro or primary nutrients: nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) • Major or secondary nutrients: calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and sulphur (S) • Micro nutrients or trace elements: Chlorine (Cl), Iron (Fe), Manganese (Mn), boron (B), selenium (Se), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo) etc. Yield responses to nitrogen are frequently observed, as nitrogen is often the most limiting factor to crop production, but not the only factor. Balanced nutrition of all plant nutrients is required to obtain maximum yield and avoid shortages of nutrients.
In the first image in the post showing reactive nitrogen, there was mention of the
Haber-Bosch process. Through this technology, invented in Germany just prior to WWI, one can produce
ammonia, under controlled conditions. Ammonia can be used as fertilizer on fields, it can also be used as a base in the production of more complex nitrogen fertilizers like nitrate salts of potash or phosphor, not to mention a wide variety of industrial chemicals. At any rate, the synthesis of fertilizers comes at a price.
The production of ammonia requires energy
Mass production uses the
Haber–Bosch process, a
gas phase reaction between hydrogen (H2) and nitrogen (N2) at a
moderately-elevated temperature (450 °C) and high pressure (100 standard atmospheres (10 MPa)):
[141]
N2 + 3 H2 → 2 NH3, Δ
H° = −91.8 kJ/mol
This reaction is exothermic and results in decreased entropy, meaning that the
reaction is favoured at lower temperatures
[142] and higher pressures.
[143] It is difficult and expensive to achieve, as lower temperatures result in slower
reaction kinetics (hence a slower
reaction rate)
[144] and high pressure requires high-strength pressure vessels
[145] that are not weakened by
hydrogen embrittlement.
Diatomic nitrogen is bound together by a
triple bond, which makes it rather inert.
[146] Yield and efficiency are low, meaning that the output must be continuously separated and extracted for the reaction to proceed at an acceptable pace.
[147] Combined with the energy needed to produce hydrogen[note 1] and purified atmospheric nitrogen, ammonia production is energy-intensive, accounting for 1 to 2% of global energy consumption, 3% of global carbon emissions,[149] and 3 to 5% of natural gas consumption.[150]
The industry has tried to save energy, and by optimizing the process, one can save some.Here are some quotes from the conclusion of a recently
European industry study "
Perspective Europe 2030 Technology options for CO2- emission reduction of hydrogen feedstock in ammonia production" that suit their language to the idea that CO2 is a problem. They have some colour codes depending on what technology they use. It is explained page 8/44. If you read the description, notice how many times natural gas is mentioned:
From the conclusion, page 38/44
Today’s production of nitrogen fertilizers uses ammonia as the main building block. To achieve a considerable reduction of CO2-emissions in the fertilizers industry, emissions from ammonia production process must be substantially reduced. SMR, the most emission-intensive process in ammonia production, is currently applied, due to its high efficiency and low costs. Opportunities in 2030: Current production of grey ammonia presents specific high CO2-emissions from natural gas utilization as feedstock and fuel. Existing and new ammonia plants implementing BAT [BAT, also known as" Best Available Technique, are "recommended guidelines, techniques, and limits, set to monitor key plant performance parameters"] can reduce energy consumptions and emissions by 8% and 20% in 2030, respectively. However, further investments in BAT technologies are not expected, as the implementation of only process optimization could be a step in 2030 but is insufficient to achieve the set climate goals by 2050 due to continuing unavoidable direct process emissions.
Blue ammonia has up to 60% CO2-emission savings compared to conventional grey ammonia in 2030. Its production costs are 450 €/tNH3 the same year. Blue hydrogen plays a role as a suitable transitional solution for ammonia production, until turquoise or green ammonia can be produced at large scale. To implement this technology, proximity of storage locations is preferred, or at least the infrastructure to transport CO2 to the storage facility should be available, as well as socio-political acceptance for this technology, so that not all production plants in Europe will have the opportunity to use it.
With assumptions made for an average electricity grid in Europe, yellow ammonia plants cost 2.8 times more than conventional ammonia plants and emit 39% more CO2 in 2030. These results are strongly dependent on the location of the plant and the emission factor of electricity. Hence the development of yellow ammonia plants becomes feasible at sites with electricity emission factors lower than 150 gCO2/kWh.
To synthetize green ammonia, green hydrogen can be produced either on-site with renewable electricity or transported to site via pipeline (off-site). 70% CO2 emission savings in 2030 is obtainable by the exclusive use of green hydrogen in ammonia production. Production costs for the same year were estimated to vary between 750 €/tNH3 and 1,540 €/tNH3. However, currently, there are insufficient amounts of renewable energy to satisfy the overall demand for green hydrogen in the ammonia industry. Additionally, infrastructure adjustments are needed to either transport green hydrogen to the plant or to produce it on-site.
Finally, turquoise ammonia, although still having emissions through the use of grid electricity, has the potential of theoretically saving up to 56% CO2 with production costs of 710 €/tNH3 in 2030. Despite its significant CO2 emissions reduction potential, implementation at large scale remains uncertain by 2030, as it is still in early stages of development.
Since manufacturing urea utilizes part of the CO2 emitted from grey hydrogen, the implementation of blue, yellow, green and turquoise hydrogen technologies leads to a shortage in this important feedstock. For small scale processes, CO2 from the atmosphere via DAC can be used. Industrial sources can also be an option, but this is still controversial.
With the assumptions made for the base and best-case scenarios, the total abatement potential for ammonia production in 2030 varies between 13% and 19%.
The way I understand the assessment from the European industry association is that by 2030 it will be possible to reduce the amount of energy used to produce one ton of ammonia by 13-19 %. Among the problems for further reductions are that they don't have enough renewable energy.
At the moment, the European production units mostly use natural gas to produce ammonia. During the last half year, the price of natural gas has gone up:
Trading Economics reported today:
Gas futures linked to TTF consolidated around the €180-per-megawatt-hour mark, closing in on its highest level since early March, as persistent concerns about tight supplies continued to hang over the market. Norway, Europe's second-largest energy supplier, has cut capacity at several facilities amid an incident at the Sleipner field. Lower Norwegian flows coincide with the planned maintenance of Russia's critical Nord Stream pipeline, squeezing supply further and threatening the bloc's objectives to fill 80% of storage capacity before winter. Meanwhile, Russia has not increased shipments through Ukraine while the Nord Stream link is closed.
The realization that one can cut the energy needed to produce ammonia may be good news for some, but the world needs nitrogen, because it is essential to a large food production. Even if the available fertilizer in some areas could be used better, there are other agricultural areas, that could benefit from fertilizers, if one wanted to increase the yields further. However, small
subsistence farmers, of which there are many in Africa, can not afford to buy them.
Global population growth and food demands
The global need for food increases, as the world population grows with 1.5 million per week increases. This year alone, until week 29, it is estimated that close to
44 million more people joined in.
With the increase in the global demand for food, agriculture has become more intensive and there has been an increase in the use of fertilizer. The following table from
Nationmaster.com, shows a year-on-year growth in the production of nitrogen fertilizer, and the Netherlands, where the recent farmers' protest have taken place, has been number 11 among producers:
Top Countries in Nitrogen Fertilizer Production
Metric Tons - 1961 to 2019
510152025All entries per page
# | 77 Countries | Metric Tons | Last | YoY | 5‑years CAGR | |
---|
1 | China | 34,023,626.73 | 2019 | +3.9 % | -3.0 % | View data |
2 | India | 13,601,710.71 | 2019 | +2.0 % | +1.8 % | View data |
3 | United States | 11,217,874.09 | 2019 | -0.4 % | +4.2 % | View data |
4 | Russia | 10,611,761.82 | 2019 | +1.8 % | +5.3 % | View data |
5 | Indonesia | 4,023,276.93 | 2019 | +0.0 % | +1.8 % | View data |
6 | Canada | 3,878,466.00 | 2019 | +1.5 % | +0.9 % | View data |
7 | Egypt | 3,486,373.00 | 2019 | -5.8 % | +5.6 % | View data |
8 | Pakistan | 3,149,482.21 | 2019 | +2.8 % | +3.7 % | View data |
9 | Qatar | 2,990,349.00 | 2019 | +1.8 % | +0.1 % | View data |
10 | Saudi Arabia | 2,599,314.50 | 2019 | +2.9 % | +5.4 % | View data |
11 | Netherlands | 2,228,904.00 | 2019 | +2.9 % | +3.5 % | View data |
12 | Poland | 2,063,230.00 | 2019 | +2.0 % | +1.1 % | View data |
13 | Iran | 1,865,279.39 | 2019 | +2.1 % | +7.2 % | View data |
14 | Oman | 1,633,945.52 | 2019 | +1.9 % | +18.9 % | View data |
15 | Morocco | 1,270,028.05 | 2019 | +3.9 % | +17.3 % | View data |
16 | Germany | 1,252,958.00 | 2019 | -0.0 % | -1.0 % | View data |
17 | Vietnam | 1,145,353.59 | 2019 | +2.7 % | +2.5 % | View data |
18 | Algeria | 1,139,962.00 | 2019 | +9.3 % | +21.1 % | View data |
19 | Belgium | 1,012,165.00 | 2019 | +1.0 % | -0.3 % | View data |
20 | United Arab Emirates | 987,665.00 | 2019 | +5.8 % | +1.1 % | View data |
See also this chart from the Yara publication that indicates where there is more trade.
Another way of linking fertilizer use and nitrogen is done in the
following image, which indicates that close to 50 % of the world population is fed by Haber-Bosch synthesized nitrogen fertilizer, which I take to mean that if there was no nitrogen fertilizers, then there would be fewer people.
Until now, we have found:
that nitrogen fertilizers are essential in the global food production to an increasing world population,
that the demand of nitrogen fertilizers has been increasing slowly for many years,
that to make fertilizers there is a need for energy especially in the form of natural gas.
that the process of making fertilizers, using current processes, result in emission of CO2,
that NOx is released both during production, and a part also when the fertilizer has gone on the fields and is degraded by certain bacteria in some soil environments.
The above summary was not the sequence I presented the ideas, but it will lead to the political topic of climate change politics. I use the EU as a case, but something similar may possibly apply to other areas, like the UK and the US.
1990ies: The early green policies - the EU Nitrates Directive
In a post in the thread about
food shortages, the EU in 1991 launched the EU Nitrates Directive. In a
2010 factsheet, one finds:
Pure, clean water is vital to human health and well-being, as well as to natural ecosystems, so safeguarding water quality is one of the cornerstones of European environmental policy. Because water sources are not restricted within national boundaries, an EUwide approach is crucial to tackling problems of pollution. The 1991 Nitrates Directive is one of the earliest pieces of EU legislation aimed at controlling pollution and improving water quality.
While nitrogen is a vital nutrient that helps plants and crops to grow, high concentrations are harmful to people and nature. The agricultural use of nitrates in organic and chemical fertilisers has been a major source of water pollution in Europe. For the first time mineral fertiliser consumption registered a progressive reduction in the early 1990s and stabilised during the last four years in the EU-15, but across all 27 Member States nitrogen consumption has increased by 6%. Generally, farming remains responsible for over 50% of the total nitrogen discharge into surface waters.
The original intention was mainly water, but in the last decade, the scares of climate change have ramped up considerably. If before the problem with nitrogen fertilizers was pollution of the water, but emissions of CO2 and NOx.
2020ies: The EU and the European Green Deal targeting the emissions of green house gases
The EU
states that
Causes for rising emissions
- Burning coal, oil and gas produces carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide.
- Cutting down forests (deforestation). Trees help to regulate the climate by absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. When they are cut down, that beneficial effect is lost and the carbon stored in the trees is released into the atmosphere, adding to the greenhouse effect.
- Increasing livestock farming. Cows and sheep produce large amounts of methane when they digest their food.
- Fertilisers containing nitrogen produce nitrous oxide emissions.
- Fluorinated gases are emitted from equipment and products that use these gases. Such emissions have a very strong warming effect, up to 23 000 times greater than CO2.
Given the above and the EU declared enemy being global warming, agriculture is a sinner as the fertilizer production requires energy, that mostly come from sources emitting carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide. Add to this that the fertilizer helps to keep the grass green, but when the cows eats the grass, then methane which is another green house gas may also escape. Following this logic the EU European Commission, began to legislate. Here are excerpts from the beginning of the European Green Deal plan for the 2030 Climate Target Plan.
European Commission > Climate Action > EU Action > European Green Deal > 2030 Climate Target Plan
The Commission’s proposal Search for available translations of the preceding linkEN••• to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 sets Europe on a responsible path to becoming
climate neutral by 2050 Search for available translations of the preceding linkEN•••.
Based on a comprehensive impact assessment, the Commission has proposed to increase the EU's ambition on reducing greenhouse gases and set this more ambitious path for the next 10 years. The assessment shows how all sectors of the economy and society can contribute, and sets out the policy actions required to achieve this goal.
Objectives
- Set a more ambitious and cost-effective path to achieving climate neutrality by 2050
- Stimulate the creation of green jobs and continue the EU’s track record of cutting greenhouse gas emissions whilst growing its economy
- Encourage international partners to increase their ambition to limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5°C and avoid the most severe consequences of climate change
The EU policies is not growing its economy. As we know the sanctions against Russia from 2014 resulted in less food export to Russia and lost revenues, then Coved lockdowns and vaccination push to make things worse followed by more recent sanctions against Russia, and still they ramble on with growing the economy, which they can achieve in some measure by issuing money, but what about the values of these?
The document from the EU continues, and it is noteworthy that the 55% reduction is with regard to the 1990 level, when the population was smaller.
Key elements
With the 2030 Climate Target Plan, the Commission proposes to raise the EU's ambition on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. This is a substantial increase compared to the existing target upwards from the previous target of
at least 40% Search for available translations of the preceding linkEN•••.
Raising the 2030 ambition now helps give certainty to policymakers and investors, so that decisions made in the coming years do not lock in emission levels inconsistent with the EU’s goal to be climate-neutral by 2050.
Certainty "to policymakers and investors", but what about the people? It has been notice outside Europe that the EU politicians tend to look after themselves and big money, and less to the people in their own countries and those of others. Besides, several European countries, have demonstrated time and again how willing they are to go along with sanctions and bombing campaigns under the collective flag of NATO or if need be the US only, but such criticism has so far not deterred the EU and they continue:
The new proposal delivers on the commitment made in the
Communication on the European Green DealSearch for available translations of the preceding linkEN••• to put forward a comprehensive plan to increase the European Union’s target for 2030 towards 55% in a responsible way. It is also in line with the
Paris AgreementSearch for available translations of the preceding linkEN••• objective to keep the global temperature increase to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to keep it to 1.5°C.
The
impact assessmentSearch for available translations of the preceding linkEN••• accompanying the proposal prepares the ground for adapting climate and energy policies to help decarbonise the European economy. This includes determining the future role of carbon pricing and its interaction with other policies.
Delivering the 2030 Climate Target Plan
On 14 July 2021, the European Commission adopted a
series of legislative proposalsSearch for available translations of the preceding linkEN••• setting out how it intends to achieve
climate neutrality in the EU by 2050Search for available translations of the preceding linkEN•••, including the intermediate
target of an at least 55% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030Search for available translations of the preceding linkEN•••. The package proposes to revise several pieces of EU climate legislation, including the EU ETS, Effort Sharing Regulation, transport and land use legislation, setting out in real terms the ways in which the Commission intends to reach EU climate targets under the European Green Deal.
In 1990, there were probably more products produced in the EU that are now produced in Asia, but then this should help to keep the emission figures down in the EU, where they wish to emit 55 % less CO2 than in 1990. To compensate the "hypocricy figures" most rising in the EU.
Concluding remarks
In this post, I presented some of the background for how nitrogen works in the soil, why it is used, how it is produced, and the political ambitions in the EU to reduce emissions of CO2 and NOx.
We don't know how far the EU will go in their drive to cut emissions to 1990 levels, and restrict agriculture including the use of fertilizers. Recently, there was an example from the US:
There's no despot so tyrannical as a green politician though
EU gaslights environmentalists by redefining 'green' energy, so we will see. One outcome is that they will have misread the situation with Russia and Ukraine so much that they will be forced to confront the impact of their choices. Perhaps in hinsight global warming politics will appear as another setting on the vice that was made by an elite to squeeze the global population.