This is not about an existing eruption but a warning.
The text is from an Austrian newspaper, Der Standard", translated with Deepl. The original german link is here.
Die Gefahrenstufe bei den Phlegräischen Feldern nahe der Millionenstadt Neapel könnte noch einmal erhöht werden – Grund sind beunruhigende Forschungsergebnisse. Bericht aus Rom
www.derstandard.at
RISING MAGMA
Supervolcano near Naples apparently even more dangerous than feared
The danger level at the Phlegraean Fields near the megacity of Naples could be raised once again - due to worrying research findings. Report from Rome
Dominik Straub
November 1, 2023, 16:48
The population in the so-called red zone around the southern Italian port city of Pozzuoli near Naples has not been sleeping well for a long time: for months, the earth has been shaking dozens of times a day in the Phlegraean Fields - usually barely perceptible, but occasionally relatively violent, as was the case three weeks ago. The reason: a supervolcano is rumbling beneath the "Campi Flegrei" - which means "burning fields". Hot gases and steam are pushing the surface of the so-called caldera, the volcanic cauldron, ever higher - now at a rate of 15 millimetres per month and rising. This creates enormous tensions, which are discharged in the earthquakes. The ground has already risen by a total of two meters since 2006. That is 20 centimetres more than during the last "critical situation" forty years ago.
Researchers at the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) had previously always relativised the fears of local residents of a potentially imminent, devastating eruption of the supervolcano by arguing that there was nothing to suggest that rising magma was involved in the uplift of the ground in addition to the gases. However, this assessment has now apparently changed following new, intensive investigations in recent weeks. "In the opinion of the Major Risks Commission of the Civil Protection, there are increasing indications that magma is also involved in the earthquakes and the uplift of the ground," emphasised the Italian Minister for Civil Protection, Nello Musumeci, on Tuesday evening.
Danger possible "in a few weeks"
This would be very worrying, and Minister Musumeci is therefore considering raising the hazard level for the Phlegraean Fields from yellow to orange ("pre-alert"). The probability of an eruption of the supervolcano will thus be increased from "low" to "medium", which means that an eruption could no longer be imminent "in a few months", as is the case with danger level yellow, but "in a few weeks", as stated in the corresponding protocols. Risk level orange would mean that surveillance would be stepped up once again and the population would be informed across the board about evacuation plans, escape routes and rules of behaviour. However, an effective evacuation would only take place at danger level red ("alarm"). This would affect around 500,000 residents in seven municipalities in the Phlegraean Fields and would have to take place within 72 hours.
However, there is of course another dimension: the mayor of the small town of Bacoli, which is also located in the 150 square kilometre volcanic basin of the Phlegraean Fields, has already accused the civil defence of scaring away tourists with its warnings. In fact, the authorities are walking a delicate tightrope in this respect: how much information and prevention can be expected of local residents without causing them to panic? This dilemma is made more difficult by the fact that it is virtually impossible to predict an eruption with pinpoint accuracy: "In recent decades, it has been shown that the reliability of eruption forecasts is very low - around 30 per cent if things go well," wrote geophysicist Giuseppe De Natale, one of the best experts on the Phlegraean Fields, in the scientific journal "Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences" back in 2020.
Darüber hinaus sind die bekannten Vorboten von Vulkanausbrüchen - Erdbeben, Bodenerhebungen, erhöhte Oberflächentemperaturen, geochemische Anomalien - in den Phlegräischen Feldern seit Jahrhunderten alltäglich. Die Tatsache, dass sich die Erdoberfläche hier immer wieder hebt und senkt, entspricht nach Ansicht der Vulkanologen einem bekannten Zyklus. Man kann sich den Supervulkan wie den Brustkorb eines schlafenden Riesen vorstellen: Wenn man einatmet, dehnt er sich aus, wenn man ausatmet, verliert er an Volumen. "Die Phlegräischen Felder könnten auch in eine neue Routine des sanften An- und Abschwellens eintreten, wie sie bei ähnlichen Vulkanen auf der ganzen Welt zu beobachten ist, oder einfach zur Ruhe kommen", betont der Vulkanologe Stefano Carlino. In den letzten Monaten gab es jedoch keine Anzeichen für eine Beruhigung der Phlegräischen Felder. (Dominik Straub aus Rom, 1.11.2023)
www.excelsior.com.mx
Ensure that all windows in your homes are closed, disconnect the power supply and check your emergency equipment
Iceland hit by 1,400 earthquakes in past 24 hours, according to Icelandic Met Office
That sounded so funny !! ]
