Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Vaccines

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I'm involved in contingency planning - and there is a lot of activity starting up currently on "Pandemic Planning", with conferences, seminars etc. etc.
Interestingly, one of the things that is stressed is that there will be no vaccine available for the first 'wave' of a pandemic. Before an 'effective' vaccine can be developed, the virus must mutate into a form that is transmissible between humans. Then that version of the virus can be isolated and the vaccine developed - this takes at least 6 months. By that time it is estimated that the first 'wave' of the pandemic will be winding down, to be followed a few months later by a second and even possibly a third 'wave'.

So anyone promoting a vaccination against avian flu at this point is either mistaken, or promoting another agenda...

Phil
 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,,1791954,00.html

So who's really to blame for bird flu?

According to experts, wild birds are spreading the deadly H5N1 virus that's wiping out poultry worldwide. But are they really to blame? Or is the disease not only a direct result of intensive farming - but actually being spread by the industry? Joanna Blythman reports

Wednesday June 7, 2006
The Guardian


If you normally make a point of buying free-range poultry and eggs, then you may be wondering if this is any longer a wise decision. The television reportage of bird flu, with its shots of men wearing white suits and masks chasing chickens in poor, rural Asian or African villages, or footage of chickens being slaughtered in third world markets while sinister-looking, positively Hitchcockian wild birds circle overhead, has helped build the perception that H5N1 is a disease of wild birds and domesticated poultry kept outdoors in primitive - and, by implication, dodgy - circumstances. On the home front, the nation is on amber alert. All the major summer agricultural shows have decided to abandon their customary displays of live poultry. The fear is that H5N1 is winging its way to Britain, and that if we don't get every last chicken, hen and budgie indoors, then it could mutate into a human flu pandemic and any minute we'll be dead.
A stream of statements and strategy documents from august bodies such as the World Health Organisation reinforce the "wild birds and backyard poultry are the problem" plot-line. This must come as music to the ears of the intensive poultry producers, who heartily resent the good press that organic and free-range poultry generally receive. For once it is free-range birds that everyone is worried about, not the caged laying hens and tightly packed broiler birds that generally feature in food exposes.

But what if those august bodies have got it wrong? Multiple cracks are beginning to show in the supposed scientific consensus on the origins of avian flu. A growing number of non-governmental organisations, bird experts and independent vets are pointing the finger at the global intensive poultry industry. A new report from Grain, an international environmental organisation, challenges the official line. "H5N1 is essentially a problem of industrial poultry practices," it says. "Its epicentre is the factory farms of China and south-east Asia. Although wild birds can carry the disease, at least for short distances, [the main infection] route is the highly self-regulated transnational poultry industry, which sends its products and wastes around the world through a multitude of channels."

Grain's alternative theory for the emergence of H5N1 - which got backing in an editorial in the Lancet medical journal last month - starts with the observation that bird flu has coexisted pretty peacefully with wild birds, small-scale poultry farming and live markets for centuries without evolving into a more dangerous form of the disease. An explanation for this is that outdoor poultry flocks tend to be low-density, localised, and offer plenty of genetic diversity in breeding stock. By contrast, the hi-tech, intensive poultry farm, where as many as 40,000 birds can be kept in one shed and reared entirely indoors without ever seeing the light of day, is just like an overcrowded nursery of wheezy toddlers when the latest winter bug comes knocking - an ideal environment for spreading the disease and for encouraging the rapid mutation of a mild virus into a more pathogenic and highly transmissible strain, such as H5N1. "What we are saying is that H5N1 is a poultry virus killing wild birds, not the other way around," says Devlin Kuyek, from Grain.

The organisation's view is supported by the charity BirdLife International, which plots the migratory routes of wild birds. "With few exceptions, there is a limited correlation between the pattern and timing of spread among domestic birds and wild bird migrations," it says. It points out that most of the bird flu outbreaks in south-east Asian countries can be linked to the movements of poultry and poultry products. Looking at the outbreaks in Nigeria and Egypt, which occurred almost simultaneously in multiple large-scale poultry operations, it says that there is "strong circumstantial evidence" that it was the transfer of infected material - straw, soil on vehicles, clothes or shoes - from one factory unit to another that spread H5N1 there, not wild birds.

To British animal welfare experts, this alternative theory makes a lot of sense. Intensive poultry farms, particularly those producing chicken meat or "broilers", are notorious for rapidly spreading and amplifying diseases. Pathogenic bugs such as salmonella, campylobacter and Newcastle disease are already endemic among factory-farmed poultry. Half the British chickens on supermarket shelves tested by the Health Protection Agency in 2005 were contaminated with multi drug-resistant strains of the potentially deadly E coli bug. "Broilers are particularly vulnerable to disease for many reasons," says Dr Lesley Lambert, of Compassion in World Farming. "The birds are genetically very similar because they have been bred to put on rapid muscle growth, however this compromises their immune, skeletal and respiratory systems. They stand on a thick cake of impacted litter and droppings, in close proximity to one another, and share the same warm air space. It's the perfect circumstances for disease to sweep through."

But where, exactly, might H5N1 have originated? There is some speculation that the initial source was in China. The Washington Post has reported that as recently as the late 90s, in an unsuccessful attempt to keep the lid on less virulent strains of bird flu, intensive poultry farms in China were using, with the full approval of their government, an anti-viral drug called Amantadine. This drug is intended for humans and its use to treat birds would be a violation of international poultry regulations. Such misuse could have caused the avian flu virus to evolve into the drug-resistant H5N1 strain. In any event, medics and pharmaceutical experts now agree that Amantadine has become useless in protecting people in case of a worldwide bird flu epidemic.

But whatever the initial trigger was that caused bird blu to mutate into deadly H5N1, having once got a grip in an intensive poultry unit, how then might it have been spread outwards ?

Intense debate has built up over one particular mass outbreak last year among geese at Qinghai lake in northern China. The widely accepted official explanation is that migratory birds carried the virus westwards from there to Russia and Turkey. But according to BirdLife International's Dr Richard Thomas, no species migrates from Qinghai west to eastern Europe. "The pattern of outbreaks follows major road and rail routes, not flyways," he says. What Qinghai lake does have, however, is many surrounding intensive poultry farms whose "poultry manure", a euphemism for what is scraped off the floor of factory farms - bird faeces, feathers and soiled litter - is used as feed and fertiliser in fish farms and fields around Qinghai. According to WHO, bird flu can survive in bird faeces for up to 35 days. Might it be that at Qinghai, H5N1 was passed from intensively reared birds to wild ones via chicken faeces, and not the other way around?

If so, then this is extremely worrying. In Britain, this February, the day after the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) minister Ben Bradshaw assured the public that the British poultry industry was "very well prepared" for avian flu and had "extremely high levels of biosecurity", the animal welfare organisation Animal Aid photographed tonnes of poultry-shed waste containing body parts and feathers that had been dumped on farm land in West Yorkshire.

When H5N1 turned up in a remote village in eastern Turkey in January, this was initially blamed on migratory birds. Then when villagers gave their side of the story, it emerged that their diseased birds were intimately connected with a large factory farm nearby. The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has now acknowledged that the poultry trade spread H5N1 in Turkey, singling out the common practice of intensive poultry farms sending out huge truckloads of low-value (possibly ailing) birds to poor farmers. Yet when bird flu hit a factory farm in Nigeria in February, the FAO spokesman still insisted: "If it's not wild birds [that are the cause], it will be difficult to understand." The Nigerian authorities, on the other hand, blamed the poultry industry. It subsequently emerged that the hatching eggs used by the farm in question were not from registered hatcheries, and may have come from a bird flu-infected country, such as Turkey.

Worldwide, intensive poultry production has exploded and this growth seems to be mirrored by an increase in avian flu. In the south-east Asian countries where most of the H5N1 outbreaks are concentrated - Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam - production has jumped eightfold in just three decades as cheap chicken meat has become an international commodity. Conversely, certain other countries in Asia, such as Laos, have experienced relatively few bird flu outbreaks. In Laos, H5N1 has been restricted mainly to the country's few factory farms. Laos effectively stamped out bird flu by closing the border to poultry from Thailand and culling chickens in commercial operations. "Laos is rife with free-ranging chickens mixing with ducks, quail, turkeys and wild birds. The principal reason why it has not suffered widespread bird flu outbreaks is that there is
 
While everyone is slavishly following the avian flu and tracking its e-x-t-r-e-m-e-l-y slow and overrated progress around the world, perhaps TPTB have another trick up their collective sleeves.

I work for a large NE USA-based company, and the outbreak of measles there has struck absolute terror into the hearts of management -- I do not exaggerate. What is even more interesting than seeing management in a panic is what their responses are to this outbreak.

Bear in mind as you read the following that current US law provides for these measures to be taken. Apparently the disease-containment strategy is that if an 'outbreak' (see definition) occurs on a floor, ALL workers must be quarantined at home for a 14-day period.

An outbreak is defined as suspicion of infection, without actually testing, based upon contact any individual may have had with someone who has been infected.

So here goes; I have been witnessing this occur over the past 7 days:

a) require documentation from all workers attesting they have received measles vaccinations. I'm in my late 30's, and I have no idea who my pediatrician was (or if he/she is even alive at the moment!).

b) REQUIRING vaccination for continued employment. That is, if you can't prove you were vaccinated in the past, and won't get innoculated now, you are *fired*. Protest all you want; I have spoken with our company lawyers and that is the plan of action going forward. The viewpoint is that the business simply can't cope with the potential disruption of having masses of employees quarantined at home.

c) discouraging European travel. I managed not to laugh out loud as I heard this, but the viewpoint of health professionals in the NE is that the current outbreak is due to a 'more virulent' strain of EUROPEAN based measles. While it is absolutely true that measles outbreaks have and are occurring in England, Scotland and Germany, to the best of my knowledge no link has been shown that the current US outbreaks originated from Europe.

Still, that is the advice received from top-notch medical professionals. Interesting, I thought... a country already cut-off from the world would become even more so under this scenario.

I can't attest as to what other companies in the NE are doing, but this is a real-life example from one Fortune 500 firm.


http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2006/06/20/health_officials_confirm_additional_case_of_measles/
 
In the UK there's several 'soon-to-be measles outbreaks so get the mmr now!!!' panics in the last few years. When asked 'where did the outbreak go', the usual response is: 'through everybody having mmr, the outbreak can't happen.' The main opposition to utilising single jabs instead of the triple jab is the govt. only allowing a few vaccines into the UK per day. For where I used to work, I had to have Yellow Fever, diptheria, typhoid, tetanus and another (the name eludes me), whilst 'updating the innoculations a few years ago, I was informed by the nurse that 'no more than three injections at one time, the body can't take more. Two of these shouldn't be given at the same time, you can have a nsaty reaction'.
 
A quick search of promedmail.org's database shows the following outbreaks for 2006:

30-JUN-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - Poland 20060630.1803
21-JUN-06 PRO/EDR> Measles outbreak, office building - USA (MA)(02) 20060621.1720
16-JUN-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - UK (02) 20060616.1676
PRO/EDR> Measles - Germany (04): World Cup alert 20060616.1668
PRO/EDR> Mumps - Austria (02) 20060616.1666
14-JUN-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - UK 20060614.1651
06-JUN-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - Germany (03): World Cup alert 20060606.1580
04-JUN-06 PRO/EDR> Measles & SSPE - Germany (Nordrhine-Westfalia) 20060604.1556
26-MAY-06 PRO/ERR> Measles - Australia (VIC) ex UK: correction 20060526.1482
PRO> Measles - Australia (VIC) ex UK: correction 20060526.1481
24-MAY-06 PRO/EDR> Measles outbreak, office building - USA (MA) 20060524.1462
20-MAY-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - India (Andaman Islands) 20060520.1434
PRO/EDR> Mumps - USA: multistate (02) 20060520.1432
19-MAY-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - Australia (VIC) ex Europe 20060519.1410
25-APR-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - UK (Scotland) 20060425.1209
PRO/EDR> Measles - Germany (02): 2005 20060425.1207
21-APR-06 PRO/EDR> Mumps - USA (multistate) 20060421.1163
19-APR-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - Australia (WA): importation related 20060419.1149
14-APR-06 PRO/EDR> Mumps - USA (NE, IA) (04): air travel exposure 20060414.1112
13-APR-06 PRO/AH/EDR> Measles - Germany 20060413.1095
11-APR-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - Venezuela (04) 20060411.1081
06-APR-06 PRO/EDR> Mumps - USA (NE, IA) (03) 20060406.1037
05-APR-06 PRO/EDR> Mumps - USA (NE, IA)(02) 20060405.1023
PRO/EDR> Measles - Venezuela (03) 20060405.1015
03-APR-06 PRO/EDR> Mumps - USA (NE, IA) 20060403.1000
30-MAR-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - Venezuela (02) 20060330.0957
29-MAR-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - UK (England and Wales) 20060329.0952
PRO/EDR> Measles - UK (England) 20060329.0950
28-MAR-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - Venezuela 20060328.0944
16-MAR-06 PRO/EDR> Poliomyelitis - Worldwide (04): Bangladesh 20060316.0822
09-MAR-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - Ukraine (Khmelnizkiy) (02) 20060309.0751
04-MAR-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - Ukraine: RFI, specimens 20060304.0679
02-MAR-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - Ukraine (Khmelnizkiy) 20060302.0667
24-FEB-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - Greece (North)(02) 20060224.0599
08-FEB-06 PRO/EDR> Measles - Greece (North) 20060208.0414

What amazed me was the angle being taken on this: everyone has been expecting some sort of Government-based, martial-law imposed vaccination requirement to address what will likely be spurious allegations of a pandemic.

While many people might get in line (some people will get in line for anything), you could also reasonably expect a much smaller but vociferous group of folks fighting back against this nonsense.

But suppose it didn't happen that way at all? Instead picture a scene where your COMPANY says you have to have the vaccination, or your livelihood will be forfeited? IF you are lucky enough to have some old documentation than it might stave off the necessity for a bit (although I did hear comments that the old vaccinations were insufficient, and the newer, stronger versions would likely be required for everyone), but this will likely be a small minority.

Most people seem to be much more afraid of losing their steady (albeit insufficient) income, than they are of the Government, and that seems to be the angle being played here.

And as we know, Fear is almost always the most efficient behavior modifier.

Just something I have noticed here on the front lines...
 
pstott said:
I'm involved in contingency planning - and there is a lot of activity starting up currently on "Pandemic Planning", with conferences, seminars etc. etc.
Interestingly, one of the things that is stressed is that there will be no vaccine available for the first 'wave' of a pandemic. Before an 'effective' vaccine can be developed, the virus must mutate into a form that is transmissible between humans. Then that version of the virus can be isolated and the vaccine developed - this takes at least 6 months. By that time it is estimated that the first 'wave' of the pandemic will be winding down, to be followed a few months later by a second and even possibly a third 'wave'.

So anyone promoting a vaccination against avian flu at this point is either mistaken, or promoting another agenda...

Phil
I'm posting this as recently on a number of satellite news channels, 'bird flu' seems to be about to reappear. There's no mention of time/place/how/why but it looks as though the six months you mention as quoted may be about up. In the news broadcasts it's scare-mongering, almost like a film ad: 'out there.... somewhere... coming to a human being near you... H5N1, just when you thought it was safe to put away the hankies!!!'
 
it just vanished didnt it? Im from Ireland and the last time i heard of the dreaded "birdflu" was months ago.Before that it was all over the Irish media,it had made it as far as the north of Scotland and Ireland was just days away from fullscale avian armeggedon.Then one day, just like magic it disappeared from our tv screens and was never spoken of again. Mabey it will return again when powers that be deem the masses need a bogeyman to distract from some other sinister mischief.? Until that day im sure it will be sitting on the top shelf of some lab or other.
 
I was wondering the exact same thing!!!

This past winter they kept saying it would appear in the U.S. in September, now you don't hear a word.

I don't know if that is good news or bad news.
 
It will appear again, but im sure if it does it will have very little to do with birds.H5N1 is a non nature modified flu.In other words it was made in a lab.
 
As one of many people who worked for months getting out the facts about the bird flu HOAX, I would certainly LIKE to think that our efforts made some difference.

When talking about contagious diseases, it is vital that we are aware of how they work.... for example, if a virus kills its host TOO quickly, it is very easy to isolate and difficult to spread... ebola for instance.

In order for a virus to infect a large percentage of the population, it must necessarily have a mild effect on the host. Colds or HPV are examples of this. Lots of people contract them because infected people are out and about mixing with the public.
 
Cyn said:
As one of many people who worked for months getting out the facts about the bird flu HOAX, I would certainly LIKE to think that our efforts made some difference.

When talking about contagious diseases, it is vital that we are aware of how they work.... for example, if a virus kills its host TOO quickly, it is very easy to isolate and difficult to spread... ebola for instance.

In order for a virus to infect a large percentage of the population, it must necessarily have a mild effect on the host. Colds or HPV are examples of this. Lots of people contract them because infected people are out and about mixing with the public.
Are you implying that Birdflu kills so quick that the would-be-victims dont can spread it?
 
GRiM said:
Cyn said:
As one of many people who worked for months getting out the facts about the bird flu HOAX, I would certainly LIKE to think that our efforts made some difference.

When talking about contagious diseases, it is vital that we are aware of how they work.... for example, if a virus kills its host TOO quickly, it is very easy to isolate and difficult to spread... ebola for instance.

In order for a virus to infect a large percentage of the population, it must necessarily have a mild effect on the host. Colds or HPV are examples of this. Lots of people contract them because infected people are out and about mixing with the public.
Are you implying that Birdflu kills so quick that the would-be-victims dont can spread it?
Yes, that is what I am saying. The idea of a very deadly disease infecting a large percentage of the population is very frightening at first, but the truth is that a disease can EITHER be very deadly OR it can spread easily. It cannot do both.
 
Cyn said:
The idea of a very deadly disease infecting a large percentage of the population is very frightening at first, but the truth is that a disease can EITHER be very deadly OR it can spread easily. It cannot do both.
That would depend on a lot of things. Such as how 'robust' the microorganism was, its mode of transmission, where or what the reservoir is/was, as well as the hosts immunity to the organism. Immunity is something that develops over time. A genetic adaptation.

The 'ideal' biowarfare agent would kill both quickly and spread easily. This would mean that in a short period of time many people would be killed, but no virus would be left alive to infect an invading army. The one problem that biological warfare scientists have is in making their weapons selective. In short, they can't or haven't made it selective enough. If they release what they already have on an unsuspecting population, they will be killing themselves, their own populations, their governments and their sources of funding too.

I think the birdflu 'problem' was more about getting the population under a finer measure of control than about any disease process. Its all done through fear combined with the general public's complete inability to see/understand and comprehend what psychopathy is.

Bird flu, was in fact a 'scare campaign'. I do not doubt for a minute that there are laboratory enginered diseases that are quite capable of both killing and spreading themselves very fast.
 
Ruth said:
Bird flu, was in fact a 'scare campaign'.
I quite agree. It sold a lot of Tamiflu, too.


Ruth said:
I do not doubt for a minute that there are laboratory enginered diseases that are quite capable of both killing and spreading themselves very fast.
Well, I disagree, although I suppose we're both just speculating. Something like that would require testing to know for sure if it worked, I think. Yet, we haven't seen evidence of such testing. A quick internet search will confirm my contention regarding virology.... if a pathogen kills its host too quickly, it cannot spread efficiently.
 

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