Part of Polish gov members including president probably dead in plane crash

[j0da]

Hello fellow forumites.

You haven't seen me for quite a time now due to reasons I might explain later in proper topic. For now, I'd like to share my thoughts on this tragedy.

Who benefits? In my opinion: Russia, polish Prime Minister along with his liberal, pro EU party (PO) AND PTB in general.

Russia has just lost it's long standing critic, liberals have just lost their ONLY real competitor in forthcoming presidential elections (Lech Kaczynski actually had REAL chances for reelection) and PTB can count on that Poland finally stops lagging behind "The Plan".

We still didn't loose our own currency, we didn't ban smoking in public places, we didn't buy vaccines, we caused uncertainty among EU officials, etc etc. Yes, our politics was a mess, but a beneficial one. Polish politics was unpredictable, to a degree. While on the first glance Poland was "yes yesing" many PTB initiatives, there WAS ALWAYS SOMETHING that spoiled their fun. Our politic scene was fragmented, with many factions competing against each other or forming short lived alliances, which usually resulted in chaos. Someone/something has lost his patience. Someone has just scored a big one, hoping that our political scene becomes more or less uniform, with one ruling party and powerless opposition. Good bye Poland "The artfull dodger", welcome Poland "Mr Nice Guy".

This is how it seems to me, in the middle of the night. I might elaborate, if anyone's interested.

 

[anart]

j0da, you crossed my mind recently - good to hear from you.

I might elaborate, if anyone's interested.

Of course.

 

[ranger]

I agree with j0da.
I didn't think about PTB in general, but US maybe (seems the same more or less).
Russia doesn't match, it would draw too much world public attention to Katyn case in general, which they don't want I guess.
...and I think such thing like killing president would be much too bold for polish liberals.

 

[ranger]

Someone/something has lost his patience. Someone has just scored a big one, hoping that our political scene becomes more or less uniform, with one ruling party and powerless opposition.

Just occurred to me that it may not work that way. First since long time I've seen polish people united in grief so, I wonder if presidents brother wont give up now he may get more support for his party after that accident ...just a thought.

//sorry for posting one after another, I don't see edit option

 

[Keit]

Hello fellow forumites.

You haven't seen me for quite a time now due to reasons I might explain later in proper topic. For now, I'd like to share my thoughts on this tragedy.

Who benefits? In my opinion: Russia, polish Prime Minister along with his liberal, pro EU party (PO) AND PTB in general.

Russia has just lost it's long standing critic, liberals have just lost their ONLY real competitor in forthcoming presidential elections (Lech Kaczynski actually had REAL chances for reelection) and PTB can count on that Poland finally stops lagging behind "The Plan".

First, I want to say that my knowledge of Poland politics is very limited, and the only main recent issue involving PTB, Poland US and Russia I know about is the missile shield. And so I can't say how much Lech Kaczynski resisted PTB and their will, but what I know is that he was a strong supporter of establishing strong US presence in Poland. And that doesn't sound like a good thing. Yes, Putin was his enemy, and Russia saw missile shield as its main threat. So in this context, and considering Secret Team games, it is very possible that Russia would stage something like this. The possible problem with this hypothesis is that Obama actually scrapped plans for radar and interceptor missiles in the Czech Republic and Poland, and started talking to Bulgaria and Romania instead. Obviously, there are some heavy games going on, and if the scrapping is the result of Kaczynski's showing muscle, it is possible that not only Russia but some additional players (like Israel or US) wanted his head, or send a message that this is what happens to those who don't play nice, or send another warning message to Russia.

Don't know. It can be also a symbolic or energetic thing as Laura said. After all, the whole event is really strange, especially the strange coincidence of the crash location.

And btw, I don't find Russia's reaction regarding journalists surprising. Even if they weren't involved, it is possible that they would try to keep all the information secret in order to keep the situation contained and then later release only what they find beneficial for their own agenda.

But this is all just speculation. :)

Maye we can look for articles leading to the event. Tracing who did what in Polish administration to get the sense if something interesting was going on. I bet that even if it was a real accident (though peppered with some heavy symbology), we will find something.

 

[Approaching Infinity]

Hello fellow forumites.

You haven't seen me for quite a time now due to reasons I might explain later in proper topic. For now, I'd like to share my thoughts on this tragedy.

Hello j0da! I know you've been on a few of our minds lately. It's good to hear from you!

 

[Vulcan59]

Hello fellow forumites.

You haven't seen me for quite a time now due to reasons I might explain later in proper topic. For now, I'd like to share my thoughts on this tragedy.

Hello j0da, great to have you back. Hope to see more of you. :)

 

[j0da]

Oh dear, coming back here is causing strong emotional reaction in me, so I'd better focus and try not to write about everything at once, or I'm gonna burn my wires. Also, it will take some time before I regain my fluency in writting, not mentioning the style, so bear with me ;) Now, on to the topic at hand. Let's first try the free association game and see where it leads us.

Bad luck comes in twos. ​

General outlook​

a)Mijas already mentioned military plane crash in Miroslawiec, 23rd January 2008. 20 people died, including a lot of high ranking officers of polish air force. Plane crashed near the airport, in the middle of humid, cloudy weather, officially due to mistakes made both by pilots and ground control.

b)Polish government plane crashes 10 April 2010. 96 people died, including the president, members of both houses of parliament, high ranking military officers. Plane crashed near the airport, in the middle of humid, cloudy weather. We'll have to wait for official explanation and see if there's a similarity as well.
---

Place and date​

a)Katyn, April and May 1940, high ranking officers of polish army, police and intelectuals were murdered. They were selected elite of all Poles interned by Russians.

b)Smolensk, April 2010, polish selected elite dies in a plane crash.


---

Historical analogy​

a)July 1943, general Sikorsky, polish military and political leader died in a plane crash near Gibraltar. From the political point of view he was Poland's last hope for independence after the war.

b)April 2010, polish president Kaczynski died in a plane crash near Smolensk. From the political point of view, we could say he was a political leader with THE WILL to maintain a certain degree of Poland's independence, be it energy independence from Russia, or political independence from EU.
---

Twos? Twins? What the heck?​

From the PTB point of view polish twin brothers politicians were the personification of "Bad luck comes in twos". Let's not forget, Lobaczewski signed a letter of support for government led by president's Lech Kaczynski brother, prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski. Those two men, in time when both of them held power in Poland caused A LOT of stir in the country and abroad as well. PTB was so scared that it initiated the biggest smear campaign Poles have seen since the fall of Berlin Wall, along with "secret team games" thus removing Jaroslaw from power. Lech Kaczynski as a president, didn't pose such a big threat, however he had a talent for "causing trouble" even when acting alone. As we have witnessed, he was removed from power as well...


Ok, that was a warm-up. I'll let You ponder over it for a while and then I'll provide some details. I certainly hope my fellow polish forum members will help.
Admittedly, the case, as usual, is in no way simple - there are many players with axes to grind in this event, earthly and "celestial" alike, and since they favor the "biggest bang for the buck" method, there are probably more consequences than we can see at the first glance.

 

[Tigersoap]

Oh dear, coming back here is causing strong emotional reaction in me, so I'd better focus and try not to write about everything at once, or I'm gonna burn my wires.

Ok...where the hell have you been ??!! :)

 

[realitybugll]

There are so many contradictions and questions that's hard to list them. I'm trying to keep track of upcoming news, blogs and comments, copying the most important or inconsistent. The main question seems to be, who the heck agreed and let all the officials fly together, how could have it happened???!!! That's absolutely unprecedented event.

That's exactly the first thought I had as well. You don't just put a country's entire ruling elite in one plane. Who would do that?

Were they maneuvered to do it? Makes no sense. Also brings to mind the faking of their deaths so they could all abscond somewhere - though that is entirely too outlandish and idea to be considered - just crossed my mind since the whole situation is so bizarre.

I'd love to know what the thinking was on flying them all together - even small US corporations don't fly executives in the same plane - much less the whole upper echelon of a company/country.

I glad someone mentioned this. when I read about this occurrence this morning something felt off. when I reiterated to my friend what happened, I realized the situation sounded utterly ridiculous and detached from reality. you guys pinpointed what was bothering me, I don't understand it either. all flying on the same plane it doesn't make any sense.

Anart--I don't dismiss your theory so quickly. how stupid would they have to be to all get on the same plane. seems like a recipe for disaster.

admittedly I know hardly anything about russian / poland relations, let alone much about poland itself, but I want to keep informed. thanks for the discussion. everyone.

 

[MilkoJanovich]

---

Twos? Twins? What the heck?​

From the PTB point of view polish twin brothers politicians were the personification of "Bad luck comes in twos". Let's not forget, Lobaczewski signed a letter of support for government led by president's Lech Kaczynski brother, prime minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski. Those two men, in time when both of them held power in Poland caused A LOT of stir in the country and abroad as well. PTB was so scared that it initiated the biggest smear campaign Poles have seen since the fall of Berlin Wall, along with "secret team games" thus removing Jaroslaw from power. Lech Kaczynski as a president, didn't pose such a big threat, however he had a talent for "causing trouble" even when acting alone. As we have witnessed, he was removed from power as well...

Why did Lobaczewski sign a letter of support for Kaczyski brothers? They really were strong supporters of American policy. I mentioned their support for the war in Iraq but I forgot to write about their efforts to install elements of the American Missile Defense in Poland.

But I agree that PTB could have some interest in this crash. After this crash all power in the country is in the hands of one political party – the Civic Platform. The Polish government had often some problems with implementing many of it’s ideas because of president’s right to veto. Now their speaker of parliament has all presidential power. I would say that the death of president who was related to the biggest opposition party in Poland - Law and Justice and the death of other officials who were nominated during the previous parliamentary term when Jaroslaw Kaczynski was prime minister is for Law and Justice like losing all of the most important pawns in the game of chess. However, Civivc Platform also can be a problem for TPTB. Just to mention our health care minister Ewa Kopacz who didn’t agree to buy the swine flu vaccines while Kaczynski's party was insisting to buy them, and even Polish Ombudsman, Janusz Kochanowski who also died in the crash, went to law against Ewa Kopacz because he wanted the vaccines so much.

 

[rylek]

[
anyway, it's interesting that in Polish media there has been, as for yet, no mention of a possibility of Russian secret operation or terrorist attack. this is the kind of questions that usually appear immediately in case of a plane catastrophe. presumably the journalists have been given directives not to let out any material that could potentially contribute to worsening our relations with Russian country.

This is just speculation on my part but it occurred to me that this incident could somehow be used against Russia, such as a scenario where it will be proven that Russians were behind the crash and this will be used as pretext to escalate the tension between Russia and 'the West'. As I said just a speculative thought.

 

[Gawan]

Hello fellow forumites.

You haven't seen me for quite a time now due to reasons I might explain later in proper topic. For now, I'd like to share my thoughts on this tragedy.

Hello j0da, great to have you back. Hope to see more of you. :)

I agree. Great to see something from you again jOda!

 

[Nicholas]

I wonder if Poland agreeing to devalue it's currency had anything to do with the crash:

_http://blogs.wsj.com/new-europe/2010/04/09/polish-central-bank-pulls-trigger-to-weaken-zloty/

* April 9, 2010, 12:18 PM ET

Poland Pulls Trigger to Weaken Zloty

By Marcin Sobczyk

In one of those rare moments of unity, the National Bank of Poland and the Polish government agreed on the need to weaken the Polish zloty, which over recent weeks has rebounded close to its precrisis strength. The currency’s strength is now seen a possible threat to economic recovery. After several verbal interventions over the past few days, the central bank intervened with real money Friday, for the first time in more than a decade.

50 eurocents and 2 Polish zlotys, roughly equivalent as of April 2010.

The bank followed through on its Thursday warnings that it is “technologically and psychologically” prepared to enter the currency market to prevent “excessive strengthening of the zloty.” Government officials also said earlier this week that the “strong zloty” is damaging growth and, after Friday’s intervention, said they fully back the central bank’s move.

Not too long ago economists said “the equilibrium rate,” which you could very roughly translate as “the fair value that’s acceptable for both exporters and importers,” of the zloty is around 3.80 zloty to the euro.

Considering that the zloty has only just approached that level, is it really too strong already? Or are Polish officials back in the mode of trying to improve Poland’s competitiveness by keeping the currency weak and exporters happy, disregarding how the average taxpayer, consumer and traveler feels about the strength of the Polish currency?

The zloty has been highly volatile over the past two years, reaching its strongest level ever at 3.20 zloty against the euro in July 2008 and weakening dramatically during the global financial crisis to near its all-time weakest level of 4.92 zloty in February 2009.

Over the past 14 months, the Polish currency has regained much of its precrisis strength. Late Friday it traded at roughly 3.88 zloty to the euro, down from 3.845 zloty before the intervention.

When the currency was at 3.20 zloty to the euro in 2008, exporters were complaining, but the economy was not contracting at all. That period of a super-strong currency showed that exporters have at least some ability to adjust or hedge — provided the zloty doesn’t fall or rise too quickly.

The real problem with the zloty is not strength or weakness, but its volatility. If the exchange rate was the real problem, as the central bank and the government are trying to make believe, why didn’t they react to the “weak zloty” last year when the rapidly falling currency was one of the most heavily discussed issues, especially given the popularity of foreign currency-denominated loans? Back then, many ordinary Poles found it hard to service their mortgages and yet the finance ministry only started selling its euros in early 2009 when the zloty neared an all-time low and threatened to break through 5.00.

According to some currency traders, the central bank managed to move the zloty down about 1%, buying just €9 million. Analysts put the figure at a more realistic €100 million or even €300 million.

Whatever the amount, the psychological effect was important for investors who were betting on further strengthening and now know the central bank really has its finger on the trigger. That may prevent volatility, but only if the market has reasons to believe the zloty is equally protected from excessive strengthening and weakening. Recent experience implies Polish authorities prefer an undervalued zloty.

 

[Darek]

But here is a background, which may or may not be significant.

_http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1545989.php/PREVIEW-Poland-Russia-to-mark-Katyn-massacre-amid-tensions

By Dominika Maslikowski Apr 6, 2010, 3:06 GMT

Warsaw - Polish and Russian leaders are this week due to mark the 70th anniversary of the Katyn massacre, in which Soviet troops murdered some 22,000 Polish officers in a Russian forest, an atrocity that continues to strain relations.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is scheduled to take part in a ceremony on April 7 in Katyn with his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk.

One more thing:

http://www.wp.mil.pl/en/artykul/9013

"On 7th April during the ceremonial welcome at General Staff HQ, General Petraeus turned directly to the troops of Honour Guard with words of appreciation for all Polish soldiers.

Petraeus said that he treats opportunity of service with Polish forces as an honour. During the joint press conference with gen. Gagor [died in crash] CENTCOM commander expressed his appreciation for the changes which occurred since Poland’s accession to NATO. He also emphasized the role Polish forces during operations abroad, particularly in Iraq and Afghanistan. Asked by journalists about the chances of success of the fight against terrorism, Gen. Petraeus pointed out to the importance of civil-military cooperation and so-called "Comprehensive approach in achieving the desired results of operations, saying that" the conduct of military operations is a necessary, but not the only condition for success in the war on terror". Referring to the planned handover of the U.S. battalion under tactical command of the Polish contingent in Afghanistan he said that it is a wonderful opportunity to deepen bilateral cooperation.

The same day, Gen. Petraeus was received by the President of Poland Lech Kaczynski [died in crash] where he was awarded with the Commander’s Cross of the Order of Merit and the Star of Iraq for outstanding cooperation with the Polish Contingent. On 8th April Gen. Petraeus was awarded by the Minister of National Defence with Gold Medal of the Polish Armed Forces."