Part of Polish gov members including president probably dead in plane crash

[Vulcan59]

Hi POB,

Not too sure if the diagram explains the crash. The altimeter will show the correct altitude if the correct pressure setting is used. However there are corrections to add to the altimeter readings in very cold (zero or less than zero degrees Celsius) weather operations. If the pilot did not apply the stated corrections, the altimeter could over-read the actual altitude (meaning that the aircraft is lower than what is shown on the altimeter).

From what I gather so far, there was only one attempt at landing at this airport (made three orbits over the airport). The airport seems to have an instrument landing system and the aircraft was equipped to fly it. However this system is limited to a category II landing only. As far as I can gather, the reported visibility was 400meters (Category II minimum required is 350meters) but the controller told the pilot (assuming its true) to divert to another airport as the airport was closed. That could have meant that the visibility was less than reported or the instrument landing system at the airport was not working or not available (perhaps unserviceable).

The only other approach was an NDB approach which only provides direction but not glideslope (height above terrain) data. The height or altitude above ground has to be closely monitored during the approach to ensure that the aircraft does not go below a specified value. Assuming the pilot did not correct for the cold weather operation into Smolensk airport which is 725ft above sea level, it's very easy to go below specified altitude values and hit a tree or anything else for that matter.

It's seems like a classic altimeter over-reading error resulting in the plane hitting something on approach but until more data is available, this is just speculation on my part.

 

[Possibility of Being]

Thanks Vulcan. You are mostly right. But keep in mind that the land diagram was one of the first hard data about the airport amongst pure speculations. Each piece of data brings us closer to an understanding of what could have happened, but certainly without the data stored in the black boxes we can only speculate.

So, another speculation :) Polish pilots on their forum came up now with their best possible for that moment hypothesis that is pictured below:

the blue line is for the runway axis; green line marks land elevation; red line - Tu-154 trajectory; white 'V' lines show fragments of the left wing;

Explanation: The plane lost a part of the aerodynamic lift on the left wing after a collision with an object (an antenna, radio beacon or a tree), whereas the right wing went up; hence the change of the previously correct flight trajectory. Then the plane hit the ground (or trees first) with its left wing and lost it - its fragments probably lie on the eastern side of the road and are marked on the picture.

The red line, got after some calculation, pictures about 5 seconds of flight between the collision with the antenna (or whatever) and the plane crash.

A wider view you can see here.

Why the plane was so low to catch this something is still unknown. What data the crew had about the pressure and in which units they got it (hPa, mmHg, inHg), is unknown. How many attempts at landing there were is still unclear. According to the first reports there were four, then it appeared that it could have been due to a wrong understanding of what Russians said, and they talked about four turns (making one circle); then Russian pilots on their forum tried to calculate time and at some point they were close to the conclusion that there had to be more than one attempt (or more precisely, more than one circle)...

From what I know, the controllers strongly recommended to divert to another airport, but I never heard about them saying that the airport was closed; there was no reason for closing it (nobody closes an airport due to bad weather).

The Smolensk military airport has, from what I know, NDB (and most likely RSL) systems but not ILS.

There is also the relatively small fire that raises questions - was there an explosion on the plane or not, what happened to the fuel?

And here is another interesting video captured by an Ukrainian (supposedly), right after the crash and before firefighters arrived.

 

[Vulcan59]

Hi POB,

Airports do close due to bad weather both for landing and take off. For take off, special procedures are applied and the crew has to be qualified to take off and the visibility has to be a certain specified minimum before the crew is allowed to take off. If the measured visibility drops below that specified value, than take off is prohibited although landing can be allowed provided the airport and the aircraft have special equipment installed and the crew are certified and trained to operate under those conditions.

Many aircraft can land in zero visibility but generally a minimum of 100 meters visibility (Cat III B) is required for a commercial aircraft to carry out such an approach. Not many airlines that I know of operate to zero visibility (Cat III C). So since there was no ILS and the aircraft was doing an NDB approach the issue of incorrect altimeter reading would come into play. Note that NDB approaches do not provide glidepath (altitude above terrain) information.

From reports online, the pilot had flown into this airport before and so I assume that he was familiar with the airport and it's approaches. The only error that comes to mind is the cold weather altimeter corrections. To give an example, assume that the temperature at the airfield was zero degrees. That would represent a difference of ISA minus 13 degrees. If the pilot did not apply the altitude corrections, the aircraft would have been approximately between 60ft to 100ft below the published altitudes on the approach chart assuming that he flew the approach as accurately as possible. In other words, even if the pilot was spot on with altitudes during the approach, because he did not take into account the airfield elevation and the cold weather altitude corrections, he would have been low throughout the approach.

As far as I know, Russian airports issue QFE and not QNH. Basically these are values (can be in either millibars or hectopascal) that you set in the altimeter that allows the altimeter to read the altitude correctly (not counting for cold weather operations as described above). The difference between QFE and QNH settings simply put is; if QFE was set, then on landing, the altimeter would read zero whereas if QNH was set, the altimeter would read altitude above sea level (725 ft for Smolensk airport). So you can see that if the wrong setting was used, it can lead to big problems although I don't think that this was a problem since the pilot had flown there before and would have certainly been aware of this fact.

The flight path map that you showed above is consistent with the fact that the aircraft hit something on approach (because it was lower than what the altimeter was reading) and veered off the center line of the runway. Perhaps if the "black box" data is eventually revealed (hopefully), only than we can be sure of what happened.

 

[Lucius]

Hmmm

Laura just if you can... Ask C's about this tragedy ?

 

[cholas]

And here is another interesting video captured by an Ukrainian (supposedly), right after the crash and before firefighters arrived.

I would have liked to have viewed this one. Apparently it's been removed. Care to summarize a bit POB?

Besides anart's fake-death idea(which doesn't seem that far-out to me), another possibility for having so many elites on the same plane might have been the result of Kaczynski's own concern of an attack. Surrounding himself with other high-levels as protection, using them as human shields so to say.

Definitely odd.

 

[Possibility of Being]

And here is another interesting video captured by an Ukrainian (supposedly), right after the crash and before firefighters arrived.

I would have liked to have viewed this one. Apparently it's been removed. Care to summarize a bit POB

Yeah, it isn't there any more. Fortunately I've found it elsewhere: here , here, and here.

 

[Mim]

Hello from Poland to everyone.
I'm new here and i hope that i will survive on forum with my bad english. :)

Let's go to main topic then, i just wanted to know that is it possible to ask C's about recent events - the crash of Tu-154 with President and many officials.
Listening to media reaction I surely think that this accident will be used to shape the future geopolitics of all over the world, not only Poland, and not only Europe.
That it can be used for many STS purposes.
I will be pleased with any answer.

Yours faithfully,
Mim.

 

[Vulcan59]

Hi Mim,

I merged your post to an existing topic on the same subject. Welcome to the forum. :) We recommend all new members to post an introduction in the Newbies section telling us a bit about themselves, and how they found their way here. Have a read through that section to get an idea of how others have done it. Thanks.

 

[Mim]

Oh, i didn't know what is where.
Thanks for welcoming me, if i knew about this topic then mine wouldn't be created.
I have already noticed that someone posted about my question.
You must know what happend to us, but inside country media is making horror.
Everyday all day long programs in TV about accident, and the most interesting fact is what is going on with the media image of people that died in tragedy.
Lech Kaczyński, our now dead President, where frequently attacked by television, Internet and other media while he was alive.
And now he is being show like some kind of hero that gave his live for the memory of Katyn victims..
Mass media is making much mess here and i don't like it. To me it's almost as brainwashing..

 

[The Mechanic]

Interestingly enough the video that was posted earlier has been edited to include comments by someone and put on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxIFh3NkEvM

Someone is trying to make the case that people were getting shot in that video. It's all really hard to see though, so I will study it a bit further tonight to see if there are any differences (image manipulation) between the 'original' video and the edited one. It could all be a setup, as has been speculated in this thread, to imply Russia in this. The comments on youtube are quite telling in that regard, a lot of hatred towards Russia. I don't understand any Russian, so perhaps someone who speaks the language can tell us what the people in the video actually say.

 

[GRiM]

I'm not to sure about any of this or if its true, but here is a loose source and updates. (disinfo?)


" Author of the video seen by everyone by now has been stabbed near Kijow on 4.15 and transported in critical condition to the hospital in Kijow. On 4.16 three unidentified individuals unplugged him from life support system and stabbed him 3 more times. Andrij was pronounced dead that afternoon. Russian government claims it was a coincidence. "
Read more: http://gazbom.blogspot.com/2010/04/guy-who-filmed-shots-fired-at-polish.html#ixzz0lp6jQne9


(google translate:)

The film, which has already zepewne everyone can see, the author
tego filmu Adrij Mendierej , któremu wbito noż w this movie Adrij Mendierej, which was dug in the knife
okolicach Kijowa 15 Kw.2010 roku został 15 Kw.2010 near Kiev, he was
przewieżony w tragicznym stanie do szpitala w przewieżony in an awful state to a hospital in
Kijowie , gdzie 16 kwietnia dwóch nieznanych ludzi Kiev, where on April 16 two unknown people
odłączyło mu respirator. odłączyło his respirator. J po raz kolejny wbito mu J once again dug him
3 razy nóż. 3 times a knife. Andrij zmarł po południu o15.03 czasu Andriy died afternoon o15.03 time
Moskiewskiego 16 kwietnia 2010 roku. Moscow 16 April 2010 year. Ale But
oczywiście jest to przypadek wg ROSYJSKIEGO RZĄDU course, this is the case by the Russian government

This is a frame from the video below, it seems like he moves his hand (ie. alive) in this video.

Video analysis with translation and annotations + zoom and slow-motion:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxIFh3NkEvM

You can clearly see a group of people moving in the background. According to the translation someone says: "give me the gun", "dont kill us", I cant say if its gunshots or not, but It really does sound like it, tough I guess it could be that I hear what I "want" to hear.

 

[Possibility of Being]

Interestingly enough the video that was posted earlier has been edited to include comments by someone and put on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxIFh3NkEvM

It's interesting to compare it with an "official" version:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJnS87dD5Gc (hope the link will work, this video tends to disappear)

In particular, I'm curious what instrument is showed at 1:00 to 1:06 and why that shot is added to the original version (or why it is missing in the first version, which I don't believe).

After 11 days now, I can say that there is only one thing that we can consider to be of a probability verging on certainty: Tu-154M [No 101] has crashed in Smolensk on April 10, and Kaczynski, his wife and many other Polish officials have been killed in the crash. That's it. For any other piece of info you can find an opposite one published somewhere. It seems that a huge cover-up is going on and enormous effort is being put to create as much mess as possible. That's one reason why I don't buy the shooting story easily.

 

[Possibility of Being]

I'm not to sure about any of this or if its true, but here is a loose source and updates.

" Author of the video seen by everyone by now has been stabbed near Kijow on 4.15 and transported in critical condition to the hospital in Kijow. On 4.16 three unidentified individuals unplugged him from life support system and stabbed him 3 more times. Andrij was pronounced dead that afternoon. Russian government claims it was a coincidence. "

Who says so? Even if a poor guy has been stabbed, killed, unplugged, whatever, how can you know that he had anything to do with the video? There are no real names on YouTube. Think how easy it would be to use a mafia (or any crime) victim to fan the flame and keep people absorbed with another bombshell, providing them with more food for more speculation. Of course I'm not trying to say that's the case with that story, I'm saying that it may be and that there is no data at the moment behind that piece of 'news'.

You can clearly see a group of people moving in the background. According to the translation someone says: "give me the gun", "dont kill us", I cant say if its gunshots or not, but It really does sound like it, tough I guess it could be that I hear what I "want" to hear.

Or what "they" want us to hear, perhaps?

 

[GRiM]

[quote author=Possibility of Being]

Or what "they" want us to hear, perhaps?
[/quote]

Absolutely, I didn't know if I should post it or not, but it could be good to post as an example with its flimsy in sources and details. Yes, I agree, without name of either the filming man or the name of the man killed (?) in hospital, taken with the rest of the 'Russia did it' it does really smells like disinfo more then anything else.

 

[ranger]

The only thing what i can recognise from video (link provided by Possibility of Being earlier in this thread), except those 2 guys in front there is 'kill them all' in russian - shouted by someone from distance. There is a theory that they were russian police officers trying to keep everyone away from the crash site. Some people claim that they can hear there some words in polish also but i dont hear any.